Ref : UOB Silver account - Some doubt

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zipink
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Re: UOB Silver account

Post by zipink »

arias48 wrote:hi zipink, kind to explain why "When the Congress approves the debt ceiling, the price of gold/silver might drop for a short period of time."? Thought it should be up just like stock market ?
Hi arias48

Gold/silver prices increase before the debt limit because investors feared that US will default so they prefer physical assets such as gold/silver for protection. Demand push the price up.

After the debt limit is raised, gold/silver prices fall because the coast is clear. Investors don't feel the need to keep so much precious metals for protection as they now know the US won't default. So, they tend to sell the metals and shift their funds, to say equities.

Here's an article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-0 ... iling.html
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jamestai
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Post by jamestai »

Hi,

Here is another article which help to explain why there is a correction of gold price when the debt ceiling increase. But USA economy is still in bad shape, their latest GDP number already confirmed that. Therefore like what Dennis has already foretold long before, that only thing that USA can do is to ask Feb to print more money. After that the Gold and Silver will shoot up once again.

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/asian-markets- ... 25z;_ylv=3

Asian markets jump as Obama announces US debt deal
APBy ALEX KENNEDY - Associated Press | AP – 2 hours 54 minutes ago

SINGAPORE (AP) — Asian stock markets jumped Monday after President Barack Obama announced a last-minute agreement to raise the government's debt limit and avoid a default.

Republican and Democratic leaders Sunday hashed out the details of a deal that would cut more than $2 trillion of federal spending over the next decade, but no votes are expected in either house of Congress until Monday at the earliest.

Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average was up 1.8 percent at 10,013.90 and South Korea's Kospi gained 1.7 percent to 2,170.38.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.5 percent to 22,770.70 and China's Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.3 percent to 2,710.92.

Elsewhere, Australia's benchmark stock index gained 1.9 percent to 4,509.30 and New Zealand's rose 0.6 percent. Taiwan, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines also climbed.

Markets fell last week on concern a deadlock over the debt limit would lead to the country's first debt default. The Treasury Department has said it will run out of money to pay the government's obligations Tuesday unless the debt limit is raised.

"It's a relief rally," said Lorraine Tan, an equities analyst with Standard and Poor's in Singapore. "First and foremost, there's not going to be a default. It takes the worst case scenario off the table"

U.S. stocks looked to rise strongly at the opening of trading Monday morning. The Dow Jones industrial futures were up 1.5 percent at 12,267 on Sunday night. Standard & Poor's 500 futures were up 1.5 percent at 1,308.30.

Last week, both the Dow and the S&P 500 lost about 4 percent as investors grew more anxious about the prospects for a deal.

Gold, which tends to rise when investors aren't confident about other investments, rose 2 percent last week. Sunday night, it was down $18.20, or 1.1 percent, at $1,613 in pre-opening trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, which moves opposite from its price, rose to 2.83 percent late Sunday from 2.80 percent Friday. The rise in Treasury yields is a sign that investors are less worried. Treasury bonds have long been considered the world's safest investment.

Some analysts still expect credit rating agencies to cut the U.S.'s AAA debt rating despite Sunday's pledge to rein in spending.

"The only question is whether the rating agencies pull the trigger this week or wait a little longer," said Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. "The bigger picture is that the long-term fiscal position of the U.S. remains perilous."

The stock rally will likely be tempered by concern about slowing U.S. economic growth. The U.S. said Friday that its economy grew at an annual rate of only 1.3 percent in the second quarter.

"There will be a limitation to the uptick because U.S. GDP numbers were exceptionally disappointing," Tan said. "There are still worries about a double-dip recession."

Investors will also be eyeing the latest data about U.S. manufacturing, auto sales and unemployment this week.

The dollar rose to 77.74 yen in Asia from 76.72 yen late Friday in New York. The euro fell to $1.4370 from $1.4403.

Benchmark oil for September delivery was up $1.39 to $97.09 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude dropped $1.74 to settle at $95.70 on Friday.

____

Associated Press business writer Joyce Rosenberg in New York contributed.

James Tai
zipink
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Re: UOB Silver account

Post by zipink »

zipink wrote:
arias48 wrote:hi zipink, kind to explain why "When the Congress approves the debt ceiling, the price of gold/silver might drop for a short period of time."? Thought it should be up just like stock market ?
Hi arias48

Gold/silver prices increase before the debt limit because investors feared that US will default so they prefer physical assets such as gold/silver for protection. Demand push the price up.

After the debt limit is raised, gold/silver prices fall because the coast is clear. Investors don't feel the need to keep so much precious metals for protection as they now know the US won't default. So, they tend to sell the metals and shift their funds, to say equities.

Here's an article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-0 ... iling.html
The drop in gold/silver prices after the debt ceiling was short-lived. A weaker-than expected U.S. ISM manufacturing survey caused the precious metals price to rally again.

I was expecting the Dow Jones to rally after the debt ceiling was approved. But it seems that the ISM data has a much bigger impact. :|

The market sentiment is not good and people are still worried about the economy.
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Dennis Ng
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Re: UOB Silver account

Post by Dennis Ng »

zipink wrote: The drop in gold/silver prices after the debt ceiling was short-lived. A weaker-than expected U.S. ISM manufacturing survey caused the precious metals price to rally again.

I was expecting the Dow Jones to rally after the debt ceiling was approved. But it seems that the ISM data has a much bigger impact. :|

The market sentiment is not good and people are still worried about the economy.
Hi all,
in the last 2 weeks, something seem to have changed.

There are days when U.S. stock market went down much more, but Asian markets only drop slightly. There might be a shift of funds into Asia, so despite Dow falling 10.75 points (recovered from loss during earlier trading of over 140 points down), Asian markets today (2 Aug 2011) might NOT drop at all.
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
jfoo2
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Posts: 218
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Post by jfoo2 »

Yes, I think there was a discussion earlier on this. Especially, one sign that point to this, someone pointed out was that SG dollars seems to be appreciating towards the US dollar sharply these few days.

If there is an outflow of funds to other areas, then the Asian markets may be in for a dip then.
jamestai
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Post by jamestai »

Hi Zipink,

Personally I feel is positive development for the Asia market. However next year I still think the Global financial crisis is going to hit us but right now what I see is that the whole world had confirmed USA is no longer reliable including Europe. Therefore the next possible thing is that the fund will come to Asia to push up the stock market so that investor can make the last round of money. Also there are some article on the net that big play like George Soro and other American jewish rich people already setup fund in Hong Kong and invest in China.

The next thing USA has to do is to print more money to try to rescue their economy, but like Dennis Sifu, it is not going to work because people has already lost confident. But this would create inflation and that would help the Gold and Silver price to go up.

In fact I am trying to find out how I can Short USA bonds. Just wonder any forum people here know how we can do that ? Because Jim Roger and Bill Gross is shorting USA Bond, so I am curious how they do that.

James Tai
Dennis Ng
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Post by Dennis Ng »

jamestai wrote:Hi Zipink,

Personally I feel is positive development for the Asia market. However next year I still think the Global financial crisis is going to hit us but right now what I see is that the whole world had confirmed USA is no longer reliable including Europe. Therefore the next possible thing is that the fund will come to Asia to push up the stock market so that investor can make the last round of money. Also there are some article on the net that big play like George Soro and other American jewish rich people already setup fund in Hong Kong and invest in China.

The next thing USA has to do is to print more money to try to rescue their economy, but like Dennis Sifu, it is not going to work because people has already lost confident. But this would create inflation and that would help the Gold and Silver price to go up.

In fact I am trying to find out how I can Short USA bonds. Just wonder any forum people here know how we can do that ? Because Jim Roger and Bill Gross is shorting USA Bond, so I am curious how they do that.

James Tai
Hi James Tai,

this is what I found on How to short U.S. government bonds:http://www.ehow.com/how_4914529_short-t ... bonds.html

http://www.ehow.com/how_8396831_short-s ... uries.html

How to Short Sell Treasuries
By Jonathan Langsdorf, eHow Contributor

updated May 11, 2011

How to Short Sell Treasuriesthumbnail Shorting Treasuries is a way to profit from rising interest rates.

Treasury securities are debt securities issued by the U.S. Treasury in a range of maturities from 30 days to 30 years. Treasuries are issued paying a fixed rate of interest so the market adjusts Treasury prices to reflect changing interest rates. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of rates. To profit from rising interest rates, one possibility is to sell Treasury securities short. As interest rates increase, the value of Treasuries will fall, producing profits on sold-short securities. Derivative products provide the easiest path to short the Treasury market.

Instructions

1

Select the maturity range of the Treasury yield curve to short. Lots of activity takes place in the seven- to 10-year Treasuries, and these maturities are the benchmark for interest rates of many types of debt securities. Long-term Treasuries -- 20 years or more -- will have the greatest value change in response to changing interest rates.
2

Pick a time frame for the holding period of your short Treasury trade. If rates are expected to rise quickly, in a week or less, take a more aggressive short Treasury position. If the holding period will be longer than a week, use a less aggressive, more stable product.
3

Buy shares of a leveraged, inverse Treasury security exchange-traded fund -- ETF -- if the value of Treasuries is expected to decline significantly in the next few days to a week. Inverse ETFs are designed to increase in value when the tracked security declines. The funds will have the words "bear," "short" or "inverse" in their names. Leveraged funds multiply the daily value change of the underlying Treasuries by a factor of two or three. These funds will include "ultra," "2X" or "3X" in the name.
4

Buy shares of an unleveraged, inverse Treasury ETF if your holding period is expected to be longer than one week. An unleveraged, inverse Treasury fund will increase in value each day the same percentage that the tracked Treasuries decrease in value. If Treasury prices rise, the inverse ETF share price will decline.
5

Monitor Treasury interest rates and your ETF share price. Sell the shares to lock in the profit when the interest rates of Treasury bonds stop rising. The inverse Treasury ETFs will earn no money if interest rates are not increasing.


Read more: How to Short Sell Treasuries | eHow.com http://www.ehow.com/how_8396831_short-s ... z1TplgmWIs
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
jamestai
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Posts: 706
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2009 6:41 pm

Post by jamestai »

Hi Zipink,

Thanks for the info. So I guess we have to open some kind of account to be able to Short USA bond, do you happen to know who I can open the account with ?

James Tai
zipink
Investing Mentor
Posts: 358
Joined: Sun Apr 03, 2011 9:02 pm

Post by zipink »

jamestai wrote:Hi Zipink,

Thanks for the info. So I guess we have to open some kind of account to be able to Short USA bond, do you happen to know who I can open the account with ?

James Tai
Hi jamestai,

The article is provided by Dennis, not me. :)

By the way, with CMC Markets, you can short/long US Treasuries. It has T-bond, 5 year t-note, 10 year t-note, 2 year t-note. I am not too sure about other CFD brokers.

But I don't know how it works though. Got a lot of dates. Some with values, some with no value. You may need to enquire with the CMC people if you are really interested. Here's a screen shot from my account:

Image

With CFD, you can trade a lot of "funny" commodities too, eg: Live cattle, cotton, carbon emissions. I don't know how they works though. haha.
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woonty

Post by woonty »

How about ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) which is listed on NYSE ?
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