Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

[positive7]

Hi Dennis: can the toggle button on the latest be put on the top bar instead of below? Tks :

[Dennis Ng]

Hi Dennis: can the toggle button on the latest be put on the top bar instead of below? Tks :

Can't.

[Dennis Ng]

Can anyone share and advise?
Is it a right time to buy land banking for Canada?

Begin with your end (Objective) in mind. Why are you considering to invest into Land Banking?

For me, I have about 7% invested into Land Banking and half of those are in Canada.

I invest in Land Banking simply to put my eggs into different baskets. No one can predict the future.

But what I like about Canada is that it is a very resource rich country, its currency, economy and government fiscal position is one of the strongest in the world today. In fact, if you were to ask me which few currencies have the strongest fundamentals, I would say Australia, China, Canada, Singapore and Switzerland (in alphabetical order only).

Real Investors are always prepared to be wrong, and we plan in such a way that even if we are wrong 6 out of 10 times, we will still get Richer. The No. 1 question we ask ourselves is :"What if I'm wrong, will I be financially ok?"

If Seminar Graduates do NOT learn and apply what I teach, then it is really a waste of time and money for them to attend my seminars.

If they do learn and apply, they would probably find that they will get Richer and Richer, just as I've personally experienced once I practise what I teach in the last few years (after I figured some of these things out after learning from several multi-millionaires).

I have to say that many of the things I now teach is NOT 100% from any multi-millionaire sifus I learned from, but it is based on me combining what I learned from each of them, including the over 500 books I read and the many seminars I attended in last 11 years...but still I acknowledge all these multi-millionaires as my sifus, as each of them did teach me something.

[Dennis Ng]

3 Aug 2011

The Importance of Investing within one's Circle of Competence.

Company Background

The Company was incorporated in Singapore on 20 October 1962. On 17 August 2006, the Group changed its name from Sea View Hotel Limited to Yoma Strategic Holdings Ltd upon the completion of acquisition by Sea View Hotel Limited. Following the completion of the acquisition, Sea View disposed of all its interests in its existing subsidiaries. Today, the Group is engaged in property development, construction and piling services, project management and design services in Myanmar. The Group portfolio of development properties includes apartments, condominiums and bungalows. In property development, the Group manages all the property projects initiated by its group including the provision of detailed budgeting, costing and planning, as well as project management. Its construction services which support its property development business, include foundation piling works for various types of buildings and acting as contractor for super-structure construction works. The Group also supplies ready-mixed concrete, sand and shingle to the Myanmar construction industry.

Price: $0.083
Market Cap: 43.795mil
Issued and Paid up Shares: 527,647,000
NAV: 0.2471
Price / NAV: 0.3359 (70% discount???)
Debt/Asset Ratio: 6%

Cashflow thou decreased but is still overall positive
However, there is a significant increase in Trade Receivables.

The bulk of their business deals with real estate in myanmar.

if main assets are properties in Myanmar, then I have no way to assess the value of these assets. I only invest in what I know (circle of competence).

There are over 800 stocks listed in Singapore, we don't have to know every stock, to know every industry, to make money in stocks.

For instance, I don't know how to analyse some of the Hot stocks such as Noble, Olam, etc, and I just avoid investing into them. You might notice that the bulk of my investments are into property related and finance related companies or simple businesses which I can understand and analyse, such as Breadtalk, Old Chang Kee, Pertama.

And I have made millions just by Investing within my circle of competence.

Some of the investment strategies of Warren Buffett do NOT work in Singapore, but I do personally practise many of his Investment Philosophies becos I find they make a great deal of sense.

As Warren Buffett said:"it's not how big your circle of competence is that is important, it is important to know the boundaries of your circle of competence, never invest outside your circle of competence.

Below are the actual words of Warren Buffett:

“Should you choose, however, to construct your own portfolio, there are a few thoughts worth remembering. Intelligent investing is not complex, though that is far from saying that it is easy. What an investor needs is the ability to correctly evaluate selected businesses. Note that word “selected”: You don’t have to be an expert on every company, or even many. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.”


1996 Letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders

“The most important thing in terms of your circle of competence is not how large the area of it is, but how well you’ve defined the perimeter. If you know where the edges are, you’re way better off than somebody that’s got one that’s five times as large but they get very fuzzy about the edges.”
“Warren Buffett Talks Business,” The University of North Carolina, Center for Public Television, Chapel Hill, 1995

[Dennis Ng]

Unfortunately, I don't have the capital to spread my funds towards so many assets (wine, property, land banking, silver, gold, stocks and so on), I have placed my bets in stocks and silver only.

If the last rally does not come, then I think my millionaire dream would be delayed.

That is a more heavier disappointment to me than a 10% dip in my entire stocks portfolio...(since I will sell out if the trend changes downwards). If only I knew Dennis in year 2008/2009....haha

Hi jfoo2,
man proposes, heaven disposes. We do NOT control the markets. But we can plan so that we'll be financially ok no matter what happens.

Whatever Your Mind Can Conceive and Believe in, You Can Achieve.

There are NO accidents, everything happens for a reason.

There are NO Accidents:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q04LPj99ZPc


The Illusion of Control and you must Believe:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_6g4s9D ... re=related

[Dennis Ng]

3 Aug 2011

there are so many "whipsaws" in the stock market in year 2011 that many stock traders that trade based on TA lose money or get killed.

On the other hand, it's possible for investors to make money despite the market volatility.

eg. I bought Orchard Parade Holdings at S$1.17, despite the current market weakness, current share price is S$1.77, or up 51%. Not bad a returns considering that STI basically was stuck in a range and some blue chips eg. Capitaland already lost over 30% of their value (Capitaland was above S$4.20 then, now S$2.86, or down 32%).

My remiser told me that this morning many stock traders cut their positions and licking their losses. I did NOTHING today.

[Dennis Ng]

Hi Dennis,

I observe in your posts you never give direct answers and instead, provide supporting evidence and make the questioner think deeper into their quest for the answer to their own question.

In the quest for knowledge, other co-related knowledge are also learnt.

Chinese have a saying, "A good teacher is like a hundred years old tree" something like this...And you are one!

Thank YOU!

The problem with the education system is it does NOT educate.

Education derives from the verb educe, which means "to draw forth from within." The original teaching method of Socrates of drawing from within has been largely displaced by professorial deference to received scholarly authority. Students are taught how to take exams but not how to think, write or find their own path.

Read more: The word education is based on the Latin word educo. What does it mean? | Answerbag http://www.answerbag.com/q_view/480273#ixzz1TvtQ3V9M

I see myself as an Educator, this is why the first company I set up in year 2001 is Educo Associates, where I see a Teacher as an associate of the student, as walking by the side of the student, on their path to learning.


A Real Teacher teach you the Thinking Process. eg. How to look at a stock? What questions to ask? How do I assess a company? How do I look at a Chart to determine whether a stock is in uptrend or downtrend.

A person who only want to make money ask you to sign up for Trading Software so that they can continue to make money from you and you FOREVER depend on the Trainer. I hope people can wake up to this FACT.

[Dennis Ng]

Possible a double dip due to recession?


Insight: Debt relief replaced with recession fear

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/ ... L120110803

(Reuters) - In a matter of days, investor relief that the United States avoided default has been replaced by fears Europe's debt crisis is deepening and the world's biggest economy may be slipping back into recession.

World Famous Investor Warren Buffett said unlikely for double dip. Well, my views are already well documented and repeated many times, the last time I repeated my views was on 28 Jul 2011, 3 days before U.S. Debt Limit Increase Approved.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

28 Jul 2011

I learned from Warren Buffet, Jim Rogers and George Soros that we need to do our independent thinking. So I'm NOT concerned even if others, including Warren Buffett, share my views.

I will review what they (eg. Warren Buffett) say and see whether what they say make sense or NOT, and whether I should change my view. But as of now, I don't think I will change my view.

Even in Oct 2010, I already expected the failure of QE2 and that unemployment rate in U.S. to remain high...that was even before official approval of QE2.

Next year, I expect a Crash in U.S. government bond markets, prices to fall by 20% to 40%, 10 year bond yield to spike up from current 2.9% to 4% to 5%...global stock markets to Crash. Beijing and Shanghai property market to crash by up to 50% as well.

Despite having record profits, Goldman Sachs just announced to cut 1,000 jobs in U.S. and move the jobs to overseas, including Singapore. U.S. companies can increase their profits, by CUTTING jobs, not increasing jobs. Guess either Warren Buffett does NOT know this or he pretends NOT to see the FACTS in front of his eyes.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

Here's an article from Bloomberg where billionaire Warren Buffett has the complete opposite view from Dennis.

Perhaps he has vested interests but the data doesn't seem to support his views either.

Anyone has any thoughts on this?
Serene

-----

Buffett Bets ‘Very Heavily’ Against Second Recession Even After Jobs Data
Q
By Andrew Frye - Jul 8, 2011 8:59 PM GMT+0800

Billionaire Warren Buffett said he is wagering on continued economic expansion and doesn’t expect a second recession.

“I would bet very heavily against that,” Buffett told Bloomberg Television’s Betty Liu on the “In the Loop” program today after data showed slowing U.S. job growth. “How fast the recovery will come, I don’t know. I see nothing that indicates any kind of a double dip.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 9.2 percent in June, the highest level this year, and hiring by companies was the weakest since May 2010, Labor Department data showed. U.S. employers added 18,000 jobs last month, less than the 105,000 median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

“It means that we’re still a ways off from getting to where we should be,” Buffett said in the interview, in Sun Valley, Idaho. “We’re seeing growth around the world, but it’s not mushrooming.”

Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A) added about 3,000 jobs last year after cutting more than 20,000 positions in 2009. The Omaha, Nebraska-based company employed about 260,000 people at units from insurance and shipping to consumer goods and energy, Berkshire said in February. Employment gained last year at Berkshire units including car insurer Geico and railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe. Staffing fell at carpet-maker Shaw Industries.

“Jobs come with demand,” Buffett, 80, said today. “We’re seeing demand a lot of places but we’re not seeing it in the construction field.”
Bricks, Carpet

Berkshire owns a real estate brokerage, a maker of manufactured homes and units that construct roofs and sell bricks and carpet. Buffett said in February that a housing recovery would begin “within a year or so” and that he’s preparing the company’s businesses for growth. Buffett is chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire.

Berkshire expanded its Acme Brick unit with a $50 million acquisition, and Johns Manville, the roofing subsidiary, is building a $55 million plant in Ohio, Buffett said in his annual letter. Shaw will spend $210 million on plant and equipment this year, Buffett said.

“We will come back big time on employment when residential construction comes back,” Buffett said. The unemployment rate will drop to 6 percent “within a few years,” he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Andrew Frye in New York at afrye@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Kraut at dkraut2@bloomberg.net

[Dennis Ng]

Buying this Stock or Silver NOW is it guaranteed make money?

This is a common question people asked me.

Real Investors are prepared to be wrong. We can be wrong 6 out of 10 investment decisions and still make money OVERALL.

While Novice Investors cannot afford to be wrong, without realising that one does NOT need LUCK to make money in investing.

You need Knowledge and taking Calculated Risks, NOT taking a Chance, which is just Gambling.

If you're still thinking and HOPING for Sure Win Bets, well, it just show you don't know about Investing at all and you're just taking a chance, or a Gambler, without realising it.

Most people scared of losing money, put most of their money in the bank.

The FACT is if you earn 1% from Fixed Deposits, with inflation currently at 5.2%, you lose 4.2% per year, you're getting Poorer and Poorer, NOT Richer and Richer.

You're GUARANTEED to become Poorer, this is worse than Risk (risk is you might lose money), this is you're guaranteed to lose money (Purchasing Power).

The Rich knows this FACT, the average/middle class are BLIND to this FACT. The Rich Invest to become Richer, the Poor save money in banks to become Poorer.

[Dennis Ng]

the likely scenario is QE3 will come, Global Stock Markets will stage last Rally in Current Bull Market, STI might reach 3,900 to 4,300 level before Crashing.

However, if STI break below 2,900, please run for exit. Real Investors always set Cut Loss Level and they will change their view if REALITY and Markets show that they are wrong.

They don't insist to be Correct. Novice Investors have to be Right to make money.

You don't need luck to get Richer from Investing. You can be wrong 6 out of 10 investment decisions and still become Richer. Cannot understand why? No worries, I explain very clearly why in this posting below:


Do you need luck to make money from Investing? The answer is Of Course you don't need luck.

One you learn the Simple rule of only investing when the Upside Potential is at least double of the Downside Risks, you don't need luck to make money from Investing.

Do not underestimate the Power of this Upside double downside rule that Rich people use to make ALL Decisions, NOT just Investment decisions...

Frankly, ever since I started using this Rule to guide me in making decisions, even if I'm wrong 6 out of 10 times, I still get Richer and Richer over time. And it helps me to be clear of my own decision making process.

Decision Making, most of the times, become Simple and Fast once I apply this Rule to making decisions.

Note: just work out the numbers yourself. If upside at least double downside, and I look for min 50% upside, then max downside I accept is 25%.

If I'm wrong 6 out of 10 times, I would lose 6 x 25% = 150%.

While I'm just right 4 out of 10 times, I would Gain 4 x 50%= 200%.

So overall, I made 50%, NOT lose money.

If I make 50% total returns in 5 years, then my average annual returns is 10%.

The average person do NOT use such an Investment Rule to make decisions, they make decisions based on Hope, Fear and Greed, which make them forever worried and feeling insecure about their decisions...

Is such way of making decisions effective for them? Nope, most of them end up losing money on an Overall basis. Yet they refuse to learn and change their ways, and continue to repeat their mistakes time and again...

getting excited and Buy when prices are High and Upside is limited while Downside Risks High...while frozen by fear and do NOT dare to invest when prices are Low and Upside is High while downside risk is actually Low...so ironical....but so reflective of the common Mistake most people make (including me, Dennis Ng) before I learn how to Invest from the Rich.

[patng8]

Hi Dennis

Thanks Sifu for constantly reminding us. You are really such a great master.

Thank you once again.

Patricia

the likely scenario is QE3 will come, Global Stock Markets will stage last Rally in Current Bull Market, STI might reach 3,900 to 4,300 level before Crashing.

However, if STI break below 2,900, please run for exit. Real Investors always set Cut Loss Level and they will change their view if REALITY and Markets show that they are wrong.

They don't insist to be Correct. Novice Investors have to be Right to make money.

You don't need luck to get Richer from Investing. You can be wrong 6 out of 10 investment decisions and still become Richer. Cannot understand why? No worries, I explain very clearly why in this posting below:


Do you need luck to make money from Investing? The answer is Of Course you don't need luck.

One you learn the Simple rule of only investing when the Upside Potential is at least double of the Downside Risks, you don't need luck to make money from Investing.

Do not underestimate the Power of this Upside double downside rule that Rich people use to make ALL Decisions, NOT just Investment decisions...

Frankly, ever since I started using this Rule to guide me in making decisions, even if I'm wrong 6 out of 10 times, I still get Richer and Richer over time. And it helps me to be clear of my own decision making process.

Decision Making, most of the times, become Simple and Fast once I apply this Rule to making decisions.

Note: just work out the numbers yourself. If upside at least double downside, and I look for min 50% upside, then max downside I accept is 25%.

If I'm wrong 6 out of 10 times, I would lose 6 x 25% = 150%.

While I'm just right 4 out of 10 times, I would Gain 4 x 50%= 200%.

So overall, I made 50%, NOT lose money.

If I make 50% total returns in 5 years, then my average annual returns is 10%.

The average person do NOT use such an Investment Rule to make decisions, they make decisions based on Hope, Fear and Greed, which make them forever worried and feeling insecure about their decisions...

Is such way of making decisions effective for them? Nope, most of them end up losing money on an Overall basis. Yet they refuse to learn and change their ways, and continue to repeat their mistakes time and again...

getting excited and Buy when prices are High and Upside is limited while Downside Risks High...while frozen by fear and do NOT dare to invest when prices are Low and Upside is High while downside risk is actually Low...so ironical....but so reflective of the common Mistake most people make (including me, Dennis Ng) before I learn how to Invest from the Rich.

[Agnestancht]

Hi Sifu & senior,

We need to exit even the QE3 is coming? Pls clarify. Thanks

[Dennis Ng]

Hi Sifu & senior,

We need to exit even the QE3 is coming? Pls clarify. Thanks

Just head for exit when the trend change from uptrend to downtrend.

4 Aug 2011

if Dow break below 11,500 level for more than 10 trading days, need to consider heading for exit as it might mean the trend has reversed from uptrend to downtrend.

Until that happens, the overall trend has NOT changed.

Please note that Index can spike up or down in daily movements, that's why must wait for some time before confirming CHANGE in Trend.

[Agnestancht]

Hi Dennis,

Thanks for the reply. Should monitor it closely.

[Dennis Ng]

What is the worst case scenario?

Worst case scenario is that stock market Crash. On 5 Aug 2011, I already run through and explain to my seminar graduates that even if Stock Market Crash, becos I've planned my investments accordingly, I will still get Richer, rather than Poorer.

Of course people who did NOT Plan well might be in a for nasty surprise.

Dennis Ng

5 Aug 2011

let's run through a Stock Market Crash scenario.

If Stock markets really Crash, they fall by over 50%.

So if STI break through 2,900 support level to reverse from uptrend to downtrend, it can go all the way down to 1,600.

So by selling around say 2,850, one would have avoided a further drop of 43.9% from 2,850 to say, 1,600. Let's say by cutting loss, you lost 30% of your capital.

One possibility is for us to short the market down then...

Another possibility is just to do nothing, to hold cash and keep out of the market until market bottoms...

So imagine you buy again after market bottoms at say, 1,600 level and the market in next round move up to say 2,900 again, you would have made 81% gains.

So overall, even if Stock Market start to Crash from now onwards, would you make money if you have a Correct Strategy?

And please also remember now 35% of my money in stocks, 32% in Cash. When markets crash to say 1,600 level, I can then also use my Cash to buy even more stocks at possibly half price or even lower!

So overall, will I make even more money?

So I'm NOT sure why are people panicking fearful that this might be the start of a Stock Market Crash.

Frankly, if it really is, you would also make money. Will you agree?

Real Investors are always prepared to be wrong.

Novice investors cannot afford to be wrong, and that's why they always lose money. Becos they typically just Buy and Sell based on Fear and Greed, and NOTHING else.

It takes 2 days for me to teach what I know about Stock Investing, it will take years for you to really master what is being taught...becos most of you just forget everything you learn when something unexpected happens in the stock market and by REFLEX, jump back to your previous self, before learning about Investing.