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I started this new thread so that we can all share our view, experience, knowledge and info on the current unusual situation that is happening to Singapore stock market. I am sure we are very puzzle and confuse and has the following question in mind.
1) Why we don't see the last rally of stock market this time ? What has change and why the history did not repeat itself ? What did we miss ?
2) Why does STI seem to be crashing when it has not reach the peak that we see in 2007 ? Some of us know the PE ratio is very low this time for STI and even the rest of the world index
3) Does the strategy of market cycle investment fail to work this time or we already miss the boat to benefit from it ? It seem that since Jan 2011 the STI has been trading sideway. My personal view if we have just buy the stock when the market drop and sell it when the market is up, we could have a already profit quite a few time. So it seem that we should have apply short to medium trend trading for 2011.
4) Does the market cycle strategy only work when we invest in stock after the market crash and hit the bottom.
5) What next for us from now ?
I know some of you have all this questions, maybe you can pick one or more of the questions above to share we us your view and what you know.
Dennis Sifu, maybe you can share with us your view and info for Q1, Q3 and Q4. Of course if you wish to answer all the questions, we will really appreciate that and learn from you .
The intention is for us to learn from each other, this is not to tell you should have do or not do. Investment is your personal decision and responsibility. I hope all of us can learn from this experience and see how we can do better in our stock investing journey.
Here are my views of market cycle and current situation:
There are usually 2 targets for share investor:
1) Buy near bottom of market cycle, sell at next level for 50-100% gain (before end of phase1 bull market)
2) Buy before phase2 of bull market, sell at next level for 50-100% gain (before end of market cycle)
Risk for (1) is low but one has to be very patient, after exit (eg in 2010), usually need to wait 3-5 years before next bottom of market cycle. For (2), there is a 2nd chance to make money but the risk is higher, eg. recent possible double dip.
Since scenario (2) is high risk, market usually is very volatile (see last 1 year) because traders and investors will react differently. Eg. for current "correction" till 2700, even some invetors are staying out of the game.
In the phase1 of bull market, the stock rise was mainly by shortcut of QE1 and QE2, therefore investors are too dependent on QE (already conditioned this way, no QE, no rally). For phase2 of bull market, it requires the market to go back to fundamental of economy: job creation, productivity, long term gov policies, etc.
So, Bernanke's last move on Aug 26 was correct. He taught investors not to over depend on QE. This is like gambler, everytime losing $, asking for loan for next bet. In fact, market's perception was positive, as the target now is on longer term economy, not short term gain. Even Bernanke's speech is hollow (without real actions), it gives confidence to people. This is also strength of Obama to use his tongue without spending a cent to motivate the market. Next to come will be Obama's sharing on job creation. US economy is spending driven, 97% spending & 3% saving, more job = more spending = higher economy growth.
Short term actions now is to restore investors confidence: Ben, Obama, IMF, Euro (Germany/France), China, Japan.... leaders have to release positive outlooks (at least on mid/long term perspective). Then, release some policies have similar strength as QE3. Instead of buying bond, new QE can be used to subsidize new jobs or help the corporates. S&P has "helped" to lower down bond yield with lower US credit rating. Gov has to balance between recession and inflation, chances must be geadual, so that the recent downturn can be a major correction, not beginning of recession.
There is still several possibilities, bull market may not end yet. If the STI support of this downturn is:
2700 (major correction)
= normal major correction as in May 2010, around 20%. This is most ideal scenario now, has about 20% chances, depending on how soon is the actions of US/Europe/China in Sep. It is likely the market still needs 1 more level of support, which is 2400, because there is always a hidden global issue we must be prepared.
2400 (mini bear)
= mid-point of phase1 bull market, between 1600 valley and 3200/3300 peak. This is most likely for this market (>50% chance) because recent corrections is clearly confidence issues, partly the side-effects from previous QE1/QE2, investors don't have strong confidence on the stability of market with these unrealistic measures. So, this is the point all the positive mid/long term policies must be known to investors (gradually from Sep to Dec 2011), then the market has chance to recover from Nov 2011 onwards (about 6 months of correction from May 2011).
It is also a good news if market really supported at 2400 because previous market cycle from 1600 was too low, to triple to 4800 is too tough. So, if the market is double from 1600 to 3200, then corrected to 2400, it has another new 2x potential from 2400 to 4800. A major correction is always positive because it prepares for the next higher peak.
However, if STI is below 2400 towards 2000, then it is really beginning of a recession.
2000 = normal bear
If we connect last few market cycles, lowest points were 800, 1200, 1600, so next shd be around 2000 (this is my earlier prediction for valley of next market cycle, but was for 2 years later, not now, but still applicable, but likely will be >2000).
Near/below 2000, investors can start to use opportunity fund to buy more shares, drop more -> buy more. Although unlikely, the market may also challenge previous low of 1600, forming super double bottom, but it will be very unlikely (once in 100 years?) to go down to previous historical low of 1200 and 800. Reason is $ is depreciated over the past decades, naturally stock market will also rise, so usually the market's valley is higher in each market cycle, except there is a major depression (eg. the case of Japan's market in last few decades).
In short, as long as one has holding power, buying at mid point or below of STI, is considered safe. If we take super low of 800 to super high of 4000, taking the avg, it will be around 2400. So, buying at 2400 or below is almost a sure win because within just a few years, market must go beyond this level.
For me, I have 2 funds:
1 for phase2 bull market which I have invested. Even if it never comes, I won't sell, treat it has longer term investment, collecting the dividend.
However, I will have another opportunity fund waiting at STI <2000 if the market is really corrected to this level, it will be used to target for phase1 of next bull market.
If the market rebounds at 2700 (a bit tough) or 2400 (likely), I can gain from fund1. If the market goes down below 2000, then I will activate fund2. The targets for fund1 & fund2 shd be clear, else when they are mixed up, becoming cost averaging, which is not the real intention. Fund1 is to catch peak of phase2 bull market, fund2 is to catch bottom of next bear market (before next phase1 bull market). If one fund is missed or trapped, another fund will be nearly a sure win due to opp trend target.
50/200 MA is more useful when market is near historical peak or low, so that one can earn the difference from major market cycle. Eg, last peak of 3900, selling signal of 50/200 was around 3300, then at low of 1600, buying signal of 50/200 was around 2300 (lagging indicator), but still one can gain 3300-2300 = 1000 point diff if following this stragegy.
However, if one sell at STI=2700, if next market cycle low is 2000, 50/200 buying signal may be >2500 (lagging indicator, may respond only after index is up >20%), then the gain is only 200 STI points, not significant at the moment.
In short, when STI is historically low/high point, good to use 50/200 MA because one has gained from previous reserve, ok to lose 20% to confirm the major trend before taking action. For side-way market or middle of bull market (eg. last 1 year), it is better to use shorter 20/50MA or weekly stochastic to estimate buy/selling point. Best to have 50% on mid term trading (period of around 3-6 month), 50% on longer term market cycle investing (around 1-3 year).
In summary, world political leaders will need to take quick actions to recover market confidence but investors have lost confidence due to TA. So, confidence of FA (longer term policies) are critical, but some short term assurance are needed to motivate TA. Next few months will still be pessimistic market, if there is no signicant change by end of 2011, then recession will become real. On the other hand, if double dip is again resolved, next rally will be a reward for those who are patient or willing to take risk, when market rebound, likely will be v-shape type, either a small v or big V, depending on how severe was the earlier drop.
I started this new thread so that we can all share our view, experience, knowledge and info on the current unusual situation that is happening to Singapore stock market. I am sure we are very puzzle and confuse and has the following question in mind.
1) Why we don't see the last rally of stock market this time ? What has change and why the history did not repeat itself ? What did we miss ?
2) Why does STI seem to be crashing when it has not reach the peak that we see in 2007 ? Some of us know the PE ratio is very low this time for STI and even the rest of the world index
3) Does the strategy of market cycle investment fail to work this time or we already miss the boat to benefit from it ? It seem that since Jan 2011 the STI has been trading sideway. My personal view if we have just buy the stock when the market drop and sell it when the market is up, we could have a already profit quite a few time. So it seem that we should have apply short to medium trend trading for 2011.
4) Does the market cycle strategy only work when we invest in stock after the market crash and hit the bottom.
5) What next for us from now ?
I know some of you have all this questions, maybe you can pick one or more of the questions above to share we us your view and what you know.
Dennis Sifu, maybe you can share with us your view and info for Q1, Q3 and Q4. Of course if you wish to answer all the questions, we will really appreciate that and learn from you .
The intention is for us to learn from each other, this is not to tell you should have do or not do. Investment is your personal decision and responsibility. I hope all of us can learn from this experience and see how we can do better in our stock investing journey.
James Tai
yes, looking back, it would appear a trading strategy worked in year 2011, but that is called hindsight analysis. Nobody make money from hindsight analysis.
Not sure how Market Cycle Investing is NOT working.
It will still work even if Stock Market has started Crashing from now. Please refer to the following posting by me on 22 Aug 2011:
History does NOT repeat exactly. Last round, we had High interest rates and low inflation, this round we have Low Interest rates and rising inflation. The next Global Financial Crisis is obviously different from the last and my opinion is that the Crisis never really went away, it only subsided in the last 2 years becos of Printing of Money (kicking the can down the road), and now we are closer and closer to the end of the Road.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng
Dennis Ng wrote:
hahabear wrote:Hi Hendra,
Thanks for the cutely depicted technical analysis. It would be cuter if you replace the canon with an Angry Bird.
By the way, you've done a great job in highlighting to us the technical trends now! Personally, I think it's time to exit the market and wait for a possible rebound to re-enter, when the time comes.
22 Aug 2011
Hi all,
in the latest Secrets to Making Money in Stocks Seminar conducted on 20 and 21 Aug 2011, both Yip Khiong and myself also cautioned the attendees that the highly likelihood that the overall Market Trend has changed from Uptrend to Downtrend.
Of course if QE3 is announced soon (say, within the next 2 weeks), it might result in a Rebound, but my fear is that it might come a little too late if overall market confidence have already weakened, it might turn out to be a case of too late, too little...
So if you're also of the view that overall stock market trend has reversed, you might want to consider selling part of one's stock holdings and possibly selling the rest in a market rebound...
Once overall market trend, from observing history, markets typically go down 50% or more in a Bear Market. In 2008 Global Financial Crisis, STI went down from 3,900 to lowest 1,456. If 3,200 is the high this round, STI can fall to 1,600. So even selling out at 2,700 level, one avoid further loss of 40%.
If one buys back stocks after market bottom at 1,600 and market move back to 2,900 in future, one would make profit of 80%. Overall, one would have made money, instead of lose money.
But if one hold on to stocks and market fall to 1,60 and climb back up to 2,900 level, one only break even.
Last edited by Dennis Ng on Sun Aug 28, 2011 11:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
No one controls the market, I don't, neither can Ben Bernanke...Real Investors are always prepared to be wrong.
Real Investors do NOT have the illusion of Control...we know we don't control the markets, in fact, we plan ourselves in such a way that we'll be Okay no matter what happens in the markets, this is what I teach, and I'll be very disappointed if Seminar Graduates are NOT learning and applying what I teach.
There is NO such thing as Good News or Bad News, there is only News. Real Investors are NOT fixated on a certain view, we are flexible enough and humble enough to know that we might be wrong and always financially prepare ourselves to be wrong.
Please watch and re-watch part of the Kung Fu Panda Movie below.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng
Dennis Ng wrote:It is simply amazing how much Wisdom one can learn from a "Cartoon Movie" - Kung Fu Panda.
Just in case you missed the movie, here's the part when he delivered his Final lessons to his leading disciple for the last time just before he dies...
Master Oogway said:"There is Just news, there's No good news or bad."
Master Oogway or Uguay said in the Movie "Kung Fu Panda 1": there are NO accidents. Just in case you missed the movie, here's the part when he delivered this lesson to his leading disciple just before he dies...
Master Oogway also says "you need to let go the illustion of control."....
How? How? His disciple asked. Master Oogway says, you don't need to know how, you just need to believe...
You just need to believe and you will achieve. Promise me you will believe. You must Believe..
Watch and re-watch this. You might thank me for sharing this. There are no accidents, including why you attended my Seminars or why I appeared in your life.
I think you have only considered the TA portion when analysing the market trend.
You need to consider the market news in addition to PE ratio etc ......
During this period, there were default news in Greece, Spain, downgrade of US. These are spanners being thrown into the works, all TA will be useless when FA is very bad.
Need to use 3 eyes like Dennis said.
Yes all this TA analysis you have used are important but they only provide with a roadmaep. When you are driving to your destination and some of the landmark has changed, you have to recallibrate and change your strategy along the way.
Thats why investment is difficult, else all become millionaire.
One thing i learn is that your mind must be open to new info with a roadmap in place.
The FA is that a GFC is coming soon, long term is either short or sell all and wait for the bottom to invest market cycle again. Or just follow Dennis's all weather proof portfolio.
Thanks Ein55, Dennis and Tivoli for sharing. I guess for now we cannot hope for last rally anymore.
I personally think that for those who still want to trade in the current stock market you cannot buy and hold. It has to be short or medium term trend trading. Once you have make a profit, you have to consider to get out and then just wait patiently for the price to fall again. Stop loss is very important and patient is the key. If you want to go long, then only consider to buy the stock when STI fall, don't chase after the stock price or STI go up. Another indicator to use is RSI or CCI which can tell you if the stock is oversold or over bought. The bad side of this short and medium trend trading is you have to monitor the stock price and make sure you have a stop loss in place.
If you find it stressful or don't have time to monitor stock, then you have to consider to get out of the stock market and wait patiently for stock market to crash and then invest in good FA stock when STI drop to absolutely bottom. This way you can use the market cycle investment method to ride the wave of uptrend.
Or if you think there is a chance that STI will go up from here again, then you have to prepare yourself what if you are wrong and how much loss you can tolerate if you do nothing.
Another way is you can short sell the stock or you have some trading platform to allow you to put in trailing stop loss.
Thanks Ein55, Dennis and Tivoli for sharing. I guess for now we cannot hope for last rally anymore.
Another way is you can short sell the stock or you have some trading platform to allow you to put in trailing stop loss.
James Tai
Hi James,
Would it be a good idea to create a new thread on the counters to short for the benefits for the majority since CFD is a commonly use short platform and the market is already on the verge of downtrend?
Occasionally, I will short Genting when the timing is good and usually holds for 1-2 days.
Thanks Ein55, Dennis and Tivoli for sharing. I guess for now we cannot hope for last rally anymore.
I personally think that for those who still want to trade in the current stock market you cannot buy and hold. It has to be short or medium term trend trading. Once you have make a profit, you have to consider to get out and then just wait patiently for the price to fall again. Stop loss is very important and patient is the key. If you want to go long, then only consider to buy the stock when STI fall, don't chase after the stock price or STI go up. Another indicator to use is RSI or CCI which can tell you if the stock is oversold or over bought. The bad side of this short and medium trend trading is you have to monitor the stock price and make sure you have a stop loss in place.
If you find it stressful or don't have time to monitor stock, then you have to consider to get out of the stock market and wait patiently for stock market to crash and then invest in good FA stock when STI drop to absolutely bottom. This way you can use the market cycle investment method to ride the wave of uptrend.
Or if you think there is a chance that STI will go up from here again, then you have to prepare yourself what if you are wrong and how much loss you can tolerate if you do nothing.
Another way is you can short sell the stock or you have some trading platform to allow you to put in trailing stop loss.
James Tai
I agree with James... I think nowadays the textbook-style investment strategy of "buy and hold" doesn't work any more. The market is getting increasingly volatile in recent years.
Timing is important. Just give an example, imagine if a person invested in blue-chip DBS in 1999 and hold for 12 years until now 2011, he is back to square one. He makes ZERO returns.
Thanks Ein55, Dennis and Tivoli for sharing. I guess for now we cannot hope for last rally anymore.
I personally think that for those who still want to trade in the current stock market you cannot buy and hold. It has to be short or medium term trend trading. Once you have make a profit, you have to consider to get out and then just wait patiently for the price to fall again. Stop loss is very important and patient is the key. If you want to go long, then only consider to buy the stock when STI fall, don't chase after the stock price or STI go up. Another indicator to use is RSI or CCI which can tell you if the stock is oversold or over bought. The bad side of this short and medium trend trading is you have to monitor the stock price and make sure you have a stop loss in place.
If you find it stressful or don't have time to monitor stock, then you have to consider to get out of the stock market and wait patiently for stock market to crash and then invest in good FA stock when STI drop to absolutely bottom. This way you can use the market cycle investment method to ride the wave of uptrend.
Or if you think there is a chance that STI will go up from here again, then you have to prepare yourself what if you are wrong and how much loss you can tolerate if you do nothing.
Another way is you can short sell the stock or you have some trading platform to allow you to put in trailing stop loss.
James Tai
I agree with James... I think nowadays the textbook-style investment strategy of "buy and hold" doesn't work any more. The market is getting increasingly volatile in recent years.
Timing is important. Just give an example, imagine if a person invested in blue-chip DBS in 1999 and hold for 12 years until now 2011, he is back to square one. He makes ZERO returns.
of course Buy and Hold does NOT work. This is emphasized in my seminar as well.
However, Market Cycle Investing still works, which JamesTai seems to doubt so NOW.
I want to share my own experience and the experience of my multi-millionaire sifus, ALL of us made millions from Investing, NOT from short term trading that JamesTai talks about.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Dennis Ng wrote:
of course Buy and Hold does NOT work. This is emphasized in my seminar as well.
However, Market Cycle Investing still works, which JamesTai seems to doubt so NOW.
I want to share my own experience and the experience of my multi-millionaire sifus, ALL of us made millions from Investing, NOT from short term trading that JamesTai talks about.
Yup, Dennis sifu has always emphasized that "Buy and Hold" doesn't work in his seminars. Graduates should know about.
However, this section "All about Investing" is open to non-graduates as well, so I am just trying tell guest visitors to this forum that buy and hold is not a good advise anymore.
Dennis Ng wrote:
of course Buy and Hold does NOT work. This is emphasized in my seminar as well.
However, Market Cycle Investing still works, which JamesTai seems to doubt so NOW.
I want to share my own experience and the experience of my multi-millionaire sifus, ALL of us made millions from Investing, NOT from short term trading that JamesTai talks about.
Yup, Dennis sifu has always emphasized that "Buy and Hold" doesn't work in his seminars. Graduates should know about.
However, this section "All about Investing" is open to non-graduates as well, so I am just trying tell guest visitors to this forum that buy and hold is not a good advise anymore.
Hi zipink,
but it appears to me that JamesTai is thinking that Market Cycle Investing also does NOT work anymore.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
I agree with Dennis. Many graduates are disappointed at this point in time as the market showed signs of weakness. The no 1 thing that come to mind is to blame it on something. The most convenient target board would be the method. Doubts start to form that the method does not work.
If buy low and sell high doesnt work, I dont know what will work. Many people think that buying low and selling high is easy. But now that we are doing it, it is very difficult. We have to compete with our emotions that are trying to make us irrational. Just when we give up our method and fail to buy when it is low, we will regret in the future when prices are higher. Time and time again the market will toy around with your feelings.
I have such experience before - more for trading, but the same experience applies. When I lose money, I start to doubt my trading method and lose confidence applying it. Just when I gave up, it proved to be profitable and I missed the boat. Then I try to get in and end up losing again. Experience has told me that listening to emotions will lead you the wrong way.
Changing timeframe is another favorite unproductive activity. When I had problem trading short time frame (hourly), then I start to trade daily. When my trading don't do well, then I start to think long term investing is easier. There is no easy method. Investing is not easy. Trading is not easy too. At the end of the day, you cannot run away from emotions that are detrimental to your pocket. Face them and conquer them.
I would say most of us would have relatively higher success investing than trading. Trading is a profession while investing can be done part time. If you have a day job, it is unlikely you can do very well in trading. For investing, you just need to get in and out of positions in a span of few years. The problem is humans are impatient and we want to engage in activities to give us some sense of control. It is an illusion. If you are able to buy something cheap and sell it higher in several years later, you can really do nothing in between. How many of us can really do that?
I think Alvin hit the nail on our heads. While it's true this round those who bought at late stage and using market cycle investing lose money currently. It would appear that trading strategies worked in 2011.
But this is after we know the results. But what if there is last rally, the market went up 50-100% like in 2006/07.. Many would have missed the boat (large gains) if using trading strategies of 10-20% gain that seems to work now.. So the risk is between "losing 10-20%" and "missing 50-100% potential gains". If given the choice to choose again, I will still choose market cycle even though now most are nursing losses BUT we have to remember when we went in there was potential gains of 50-100%. I will be very disappointed If I use trading strategies and mkt went up 50-100% and I missed the boat because of this.
For me I still believe in using market cycle strategies. I have done forex and stock trading before. And I can tell you that sometimes trading can be very stressful, it can take up 100% of your life when market gone bad.. It will affect your sleep, social life, family and work.
Just sharing my past experience with stock trading and hope some graduates can relate and benefit from it..
Alvin learned about Trading and TA much earlier and has been trading for some years until I keep sharing with him that from my experience, Investing is the Path to Wealth, NOT Trading.
Yes, many people forget that Real Investors assess both Upside and Downside and then only take action if Upside is at least double the Downside. And when things do NOT work out, Real Investors are NOT worried at all, becos we know that when we practise this, we can be wrong 6 out of 10 times and still get Richer.
And on 5 Aug 2011 I have already run through the Scenario that even if the Stock Market Crash from then onwards, that by adhering to Market Cycle Investing, one can still make money, firstly when the market goes down (one can short the index) and later when markets subsequently bottom, we can Buy Low again and when STI goes back to 2,700, we would have made probably over 80% returns (40% on the way down from 2,700 to 1,700 and 50% from the way up (1,800 back to 2,700 level).
So to me, I have to say that I was somewhat disappointed when some Seminar Graduates seem to doubt whether Market Cycle Investing work or NOT.
I know it works becos that's how I reached Millionaire status and that is how my multi-millionaire sifus made their millions as well. So I'm NOT teaching or sharing unproven theories, but teaching and sharing what work for me and my multi-millionaire sifus.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng
Stradlinz wrote:I think Alvin hit the nail on our heads. While it's true this round those who bought at late stage and using market cycle investing lose money currently. It would appear that trading strategies worked in 2011.
But this is after we know the results. But what if there is last rally, the market went up 50-100% like in 2006/07.. Many would have missed the boat (large gains) if using trading strategies of 10-20% gain that seems to work now.. So the risk is between "losing 10-20%" and "missing 50-100% potential gains". If given the choice to choose again, I will still choose market cycle even though now most are nursing losses BUT we have to remember when we went in there was potential gains of 50-100%. I will be very disappointed If I use trading strategies and mkt went up 50-100% and I missed the boat because of this.
For me I still believe in using market cycle strategies. I have done forex and stock trading before. And I can tell you that sometimes trading can be very stressful, it can take up 100% of your life when market gone bad.. It will affect your sleep, social life, family and work.
Just sharing my past experience with stock trading and hope some graduates can relate and benefit from it..
Cheers!
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
I totally agree that Market cycle is the best way to invest. I have been buying stocks from more than a decade but it was what Dennis mentioned in Seminar "Based on feeling" but after attending his seminar even though this time i lose money am confident and not panic. I am sure in years to come i shall make money. If doing trading like what Stradlinz mentioned it affects sleep, family life and can be stressful.
Need to learn to be patients and enjoy the fruits by investing in Market cycle.
Dennis Ng wrote:well said both Stradlinz and Alvin.
Alvin learned about Trading and TA much earlier and has been trading for some years until I keep sharing with him that from my experience, Investing is the Path to Wealth, NOT Trading.
Yes, many people forget that Real Investors assess both Upside and Downside and then only take action if Upside is at least double the Downside. And when things do NOT work out, Real Investors are NOT worried at all, becos we know that when we practise this, we can be wrong 6 out of 10 times and still get Richer.
And on 5 Aug 2011 I have already run through the Scenario that even if the Stock Market Crash from then onwards, that by adhering to Market Cycle Investing, one can still make money, firstly when the market goes down (one can short the index) and later when markets subsequently bottom, we can Buy Low again and when STI goes back to 2,700, we would have made probably over 80% returns (40% on the way down from 2,700 to 1,700 and 50% from the way up (1,800 back to 2,700 level).
So to me, I have to say that I was somewhat disappointed when some Seminar Graduates seem to doubt whether Market Cycle Investing work or NOT.
I know it works becos that's how I reached Millionaire status and that is how my multi-millionaire sifus made their millions as well. So I'm NOT teaching or sharing unproven theories, but teaching and sharing what work for me and my multi-millionaire sifus.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng
Stradlinz wrote:I think Alvin hit the nail on our heads. While it's true this round those who bought at late stage and using market cycle investing lose money currently. It would appear that trading strategies worked in 2011.
But this is after we know the results. But what if there is last rally, the market went up 50-100% like in 2006/07.. Many would have missed the boat (large gains) if using trading strategies of 10-20% gain that seems to work now.. So the risk is between "losing 10-20%" and "missing 50-100% potential gains". If given the choice to choose again, I will still choose market cycle even though now most are nursing losses BUT we have to remember when we went in there was potential gains of 50-100%. I will be very disappointed If I use trading strategies and mkt went up 50-100% and I missed the boat because of this.
For me I still believe in using market cycle strategies. I have done forex and stock trading before. And I can tell you that sometimes trading can be very stressful, it can take up 100% of your life when market gone bad.. It will affect your sleep, social life, family and work.
Just sharing my past experience with stock trading and hope some graduates can relate and benefit from it..
.
