$8 Silver Pass For Shares Investment Conference 2011

[Dennis Ng]

During lunch, I was at VIP lounge and had the chance to speak and ask Prof Chan's questions:

He told me that according to his "Chan's channel" 曾氏通道 , the stock market can still have some way to fall, not bottomed yet. The time to buy is when STI hit -95 in his Chan's Channel, now it is at -75...he said that market might or might not go down to -95 but there is a likelihood to fall further as markets only fell since Aug 2011, just about 2 months...unlike Hu Li Yang, he didn't give specific target level for STI, and asked me to check his website for the latest update of "Chan's channel" 曾氏通道 reading.

Hi Dennis, may I know what does -95 and -75 mean above regarding the STI?

"Chan's channel" 曾氏通道 reading is explained here:

http://www.ycchan.net/LRTheory.aspx

[ein55]

Prof Chan also mentions about STI is around -75% line of his Chan's Channel. However, I examine closely, both STI and HSI are back to about the level in May 2010, not yet touching -75% line, perhaps around -65% to -70%.

What Prof Chan indicates is if -75% line is really touched, it is actually not a bad news because historical data shows that it will quickly touch -95% and recover upward to touch -75% line again in about 6 months.

By right, the market cycle shd not touch -75% line with such a "small" correction. The issue here is because it is corrected from 50% line which is middle of bull market, therefore it can move downward quickly. However, it also implies the downside may not be severe because it is not falling from +95% level as in year 2007.

In fact, Chan's Channel is just a representation of stock market with consideration of annual growth rate. This is similar to asiachart:
http://www.asiachart.com/malaysiasing.html

The significance of this analysis is to include "inflation" of around 6-7%/year for stock market, therefore we can't use the same STI=3900 in year 2007 to compare with STI=3900 in next cycle because 3900 now is already "depreciated". This is the reason stock index can grow 10 or even 100 times over the past tens of years.

I have also analyzed Chan's Channel in an article on 15 Jan 2011:
http://www.masteryourfinance.com/forum/ ... sc&start=0

Although Hu Liyang is very proud of himself, I think his intention is to give confidence to the audience by quoting his past success stories (including prediction of lowest point of Taiwan index on 20 Nov 2008). He might have oversold himself but I think he deserves it. Even for Prof Chan, he is also proud of his past achievements to accurately predict the market trend in 2009 and other years when he came to Singapore for lecture.

I think there is no harm to hear both FA (Prof Chan) and TA (Hu Liyang) views. We still need to make our own final decisions.

[Battleship]

Hi all,

I did the STI plot in Log based on Prof Chan's theory. But I'm not sure how to plot the 75% and 95% line. Maybe someone can help? Here is the link for you to download.

http://min.us/mUa7pFXaZ

[valen248]

I only attended the early session as mine is a silver ticket.

In brief, here are some notes I took down during the opening speech and forum session.

Prof. Chan started off his opening speech with the same slides he presented last year titled - Revision of what he said on 15/08/2010, the reason being nothing much has changed since then.

On Europe, the high debt problem of PIIGS remains unsolved. As ein55 mentioned, Europe is not a country, so some countries like Greece, is not allowed to print money like US, so they can only issue bond and get people to lend them money by buying it. But now, no one wants to buy Greece's bond, so new bond can be sold and old bond is expiring soon.

Europe crisis post an opportunity for hedge fund to beat euro by pushing up euro against USD. Higher euro will mean depreciation of euro in long-run becos the cost of things increase. This is what US did to Japan in 90s, and Japan's economy has been down since then. For political reason, US will defend the world status of USD. So Europe crisis described as the 'volcano' is still here.

On US side, it is very likely that they will print money again which will be announced on 20/9 meeting. Printing money is easy but distributing it is not, that's why US stock mkt has been up but economy has never improved, i.e high unemployment rate, home price never goes up, printed money only goes to the stock mkt. So US problem is not small too.

On China, its problems are the most complicated. Companies are reporting good results, but stock mkt is not rising, this is becos the govt has tighten the money flow, so stock mkt is not boosted up. Though China has maintained its 8% growth rate, but property mkt is in bubbles, this is due to the shifting of farmers to city, and the population of city has increase tremendously, as the result of the policy where farmers can sell away their land, which leave them no return.

On Singapore, Sgp's growth rate last year is world no.1. Casino effect is here to stay, Sgp is world 2nd famous place for casino now after Macau, where Las Vegas (with 20+ casions) is at no. 3, this is becos here is surrounded by countries with many Chinese, a human race that like gambling the most, according to Prof. Chan -). Election just over, it seems that the best time of economy is over, as Govt will always pick the best time for election.


Over the forum, below are some qstns posted by mc, I didn't manage to take much notes, just some points here that I can remembered:

1. Will China be the big rescue?
Speakers don't think so, China now will extend help with conditions which will benefit them in return e.g acquiring shares holding of their strategic companies in oil, etc industries, opening marketing to China companies, etc.

On another note, is why US Bond after being downgraded, its demand increases? This is becos China, Japan are buying it, becos they have no other place to invest its money.

2. Will there be a double dip?
Most speakers hold the view that the mkt is more towards the pessimistic side now, except Mr. Hu hold a different view which is very positive. His view is based on the fact that the world population is increasing fast and people are holding a lot of cash with them, and stock mkt is the place where they will put their money in. He said the recent fall in Aug is a great opportunity to go in, just like when u r taking a bus, people are leaving their seat, n u shd quickly grab it, he will ask you to trust what he said, and to know more details, pls attend his afternoon VIP session.
Prof Chan said that the mkt is like half dead, but not dead yet. He has this interesting indicator, during the peak period, in HK, he can see 20+ stock seminar in 1 weekend, during the worst period, not even 1 in 3 mths, eg. late 2008, so now he see there is on average 1 seminar a day, so the mkt is still not at the worst yet.

3. What will happen in Oct?
As ein55 mentioned, nx Tue 20/09, Mr. Ben will definitely announce a big plan, or else, Obama will no need to go for election next year. So he said, if you can buy stock and sleep well, must be able to sleep well, then u can buy. He also said his idol, Mr. Warren Buffet, has started buying stock, but he said Mr. Warren will start when the mkt started to go down, after which, the mkt will go down further, so we can wait for a while after Mr. Warren has taken action. This is becos Mr. Warren is buying at a multiple of millions, so he need to slowly accumulate when the mkt is going down, so that the price of the stock will not go up becos of his buying.

I guess that's about all, do let me know if any of the above is not correct, tks!

[ein55]

Thanks for the updates. Hope to hear more from others who listen to other speakers (besides Chan and Hu).

You may not attend afternoon session of Prof Chan. He said he did not have chance to answer the question of "double dip" in the morning, so he gives the answer in afternoon session around 3pm. He thinks it is unlikely to have double dip for economy (because each country can simply print more money to excite the market), but it is possible for stock market to go soft again. This is similar to China which has strong economy but weak stock market in the past 2 years.

Economy and stock market trend could be different (I think it shd be called slightly out of phase by about 6 months, one following the other). Hu Liyang strongly feels that stock market is the leader, economy follows, not the other way round. Therefore, economy is bad, therefore stock market has to go down is considered not logical to Hu. He thinks if the stock is high enough, even if the economy is very good as in 2007/2008, stock market still has to come down. Similarly for 2009 when economy is very bad, but because stock market is taking the lead to move out from the valley.

I think what Prof Chan means is probably US forced appreciation (not depreciation) of Euro and Yen, therefore their products become expensive and not able to sell.

In fact, SGD is getting softened recently, rebounce from 1.2 to 1.24. Singapore may sense possible downturn in economy, wants to help its products/services to be more competitive by making SGD cheaper.

If all countries do the same, this will be the war of forex....

[Dennis Ng]

Although Hu Liyang is very proud of himself, I think his intention is to give confidence to the audience by quoting his past success stories (including prediction of lowest point of Taiwan index on 20 Nov 2008). He might have oversold himself but I think he deserves it. Even for Prof Chan, he is also proud of his past achievements to accurately predict the market trend in 2009 and other years when he came to Singapore for lecture.

I think there is no harm to hear both FA (Prof Chan) and TA (Hu Liyang) views. We still need to make our own final decisions.

Hi all,
Prof Chan does NOT keep reminding you how good he is, but Hu Li Yang did, many, many times during his talks.

There is a difference between confident and proud. And Hu Liyang seems to want audience to treat him as God, as he seemed to imply he is 100% accurate in all his previous predictions.

He also shared some Investment Rules he "discovered" which might NOT be totally true, just that the audience may not realise. I hereby quote 3 examples from his talk yesterday:

1. he says that Aug is bad month for stocks, he calls it the Summer Holiday effect. Well, he forgot that last year in Aug 2010, most global stock markets went up and did well.

2. he also says that Nov and Dec are good months for stocks. Well, in year 2007, Singapore STI peaked in Oct 2007 and started falling in Nov...

3. he says year 2012 U.S. stock market would do well becos year 2012 is U.S. Presidential Election year. Well, he forgot that year 2008 was U.S. Presidential Election year as well, but we had the Global Financial Crisis and stock market Crashed then.

Yesterday, he was very certain that stock markets would go up and rally further, he said it in the Morning Group Discussion session and repeated this more than once in his afternoon workshop session.

And his simple message to audience seems to be: just follow Hu Li Yang and you cannot be wrong.

Note: while by now you know the No. 1 question I ask myself is:"What if I'm wrong, will I be financially ok?"

To be overly confident can lead to disastrous consequences. Just share one real life example, in year 2009, Mr Oei Hong Leong was very confident of himself, in the end it led to the biggest Investment Loss of his life, losing over S$1 billion to CITIGROUP. This was well publicized in newspapers.

Mr Hu needs to understand that many in the audience will blindly follow him, so if he is wrong, he might also cause many people to lose alot of money, especially those who believe that Hu Liyang is 100% right all the times.

He also said that when it comes to understanding stocks, he is even better than Warren Buffett. (yes, he actually said that).

He also said that Value Investing and Fundamental Analysis do NOT work. Don't bother about the economy, interest rates, what the governments would do or would NOT do, just purely use the TA Investment Rules he shared in his 2 books.

He also commented that people who practises Positive Thinking are mentally illed or Crazy. I find that Hu thinks he is Right on everything, and seems to cannot distinguish between Facts and Opinion. On the other hand, I cannot find any successful person who do NOT practise Positive Thinking.

He shared what he learned from some of his clients, who are Great Investors in his opinion, but what he shared was basically 2 clients who do the following:

1. one client would buy when nobody wants/interested to buy stocks. Well, this is just Be Greedy when Others are Fearful.

2. another client would buy stocks by 3 batches of 1/3 each. I shared something similarly, in fact, my strategy would be safer, as I share the concept of "Pyramiding your Investment dollars", instead of investing equal amounts over 3 times, you actually invest less and less as the stock prices go higher (just like a pyramid).

Other than these 2 clients, he didn't share any other examples of Investing, most of his other stuff are Rules (I already share 3 examples he quoted which are NOT 100% True all the time). For a Rule to be a Rule, it must work 100% of the time, NOT just some of the times.

He shared that Gold move by 20% movement. Wonder did he back test this as gold price went up from US$35 in 1971 to US$850 in 1980 and went up from about US$250 in 1999 to now about US$1,800 in year 2011.

He seems to suggest that Gold prices are too high now, and likely to Crash, similar to it Crashing in 1980 after going up for 10 years, and this round, Gold prices have gone up for 11 years from 1999 to now.

Note: he didn't understand why Gold prices Crash then? It was a case when interest rates in U.S was raised to 20% which lured people to sell Gold and buy Stocks that pay dividends. While in year 2011, U.S interest rates are at historical low and people are worried about Inflation and US$ falling.

You see, it does make sense to learn about how economy, interest rates and inflation works, and NOT just 100% looking at Charts alone.

He also forgot that US$850 in 1980 was 31 years ago, to factor in inflation in last 31 years, Gold prices today should be about US$2,125, so is US$1,800 gold price a Bubble? Personally, I won't sell Gold unless and until its 50 Day MA cut below 200 day MA. (meaning uptrend reverses to downtrend). As I mentioned many times, I don't need to guess where the markets will move, becos the Markets will tell us where they want to go.

I managed to buy gold at US$800 and hold until now, making over 100% gains, this is possible becos I use both FA and TA, and would not just take profits after making 20% gains.

Hu Liyang did NOT mention anything about Silver. Looks like he only focuses on Gold, which is what the general media talks about.

Of course, you would know that for the last 2 years, I kept saying that it is better to buy Silver than Gold. Silver went up from US$14 in Aug 2009 to now US$40, or up 185%, went up much, much more than Gold prices which went up from US$1,000 to US$1,800 in the same time period, or 80% up.

He is very entertaining and knows how to play to the crowd, I really didn't learn much from his talks, other than him using many, many occasions to keep reminding you how good he is and he wants you to treat him like God as he shared once at a seminar, that it was so crowded he could NOT get to the stage and he was basically carried by people over their shoulders to place him on the stage.

I'm just sharing my opinion of him after listening to him for over 3 hours (first time I listened to him. I went to attend his talk with an Empty Cup Mindset, to learn all that I can from him), but I went away quite disappointed as I felt he is too proud of himself.

It is definitely ok for anyone to have a different opinion of him.

[Battleship]

I only attended all Prof Chan’s sessions in the afternoon, hence didn’t have a chance to attend Hu Liyang’s session. But from his comment in the morning, it seems to suggest that he is asking everyone just to believe in him and buy stocks now. He was saying that the recent sell-down has forced a lot of people to give up their seat to profit from the coming “rally” and we should take the opportunity to get on to the seat now.. Anyway,
I was quite disturbed especially with his comments in exact words as shown.

“相信我，胡老师是不会骗你们的”

[valen248]

Hi ein55,

Yes, US will want to force appreciation of euro.

Just like to ask if you hear why this speaker, Mr. Chen Dan Hong said, early next year, the China stock mkt will have a short rise, before it goes down again?

Tks.

Thanks for the updates. Hope to hear more from others who listen to other speakers (besides Chan and Hu).

You may not attend afternoon session of Prof Chan. He said he did not have chance to answer the question of "double dip" in the morning, so he gives the answer in afternoon session around 3pm. He thinks it is unlikely to have double dip for economy (because each country can simply print more money to excite the market), but it is possible for stock market to go soft again. This is similar to China which has strong economy but weak stock market in the past 2 years.

Economy and stock market trend could be different (I think it shd be called slightly out of phase by about 6 months, one following the other). Hu Liyang strongly feels that stock market is the leader, economy follows, not the other way round. Therefore, economy is bad, therefore stock market has to go down is considered not logical to Hu. He thinks if the stock is high enough, even if the economy is very good as in 2007/2008, stock market still has to come down. Similarly for 2009 when economy is very bad, but because stock market is taking the lead to move out from the valley.

I think what Prof Chan means is probably US forced appreciation (not depreciation) of Euro and Yen, therefore their products become expensive and not able to sell.

In fact, SGD is getting softened recently, rebounce from 1.2 to 1.24. Singapore may sense possible downturn in economy, wants to help its products/services to be more competitive by making SGD cheaper.

If all countries do the same, this will be the war of forex....

[valen248]

Ya Battleship, I don't think he should make a public statement like that.

I only attended all Prof Chan’s sessions in the afternoon, hence didn’t have a chance to attend Hu Liyang’s session. But from his comment in the morning, it seems to suggest that he is asking everyone just to believe in him and buy stocks now. He was saying that the recent sell-down has forced a lot of people to give up their seat to profit from the coming “rally” and we should take the opportunity to get on to the seat now.. Anyway,
I was quite disturbed especially with his comments in exact words as shown.

“相信我，胡老师是不会骗你们的”

[Jace]

Thank you ein55 for his great summary and sharing.

I have listened to Hu Li Yang in the past. He is a great speaker who can capture the audience attention but he spends a lot of time talking about his past successes.

While we can listen to what others have to share about their experience, I think the more important thing is we do not blindly follow whatever speaker is saying but THINK through it on our own and MAKE OUR OWN DECISION.

[ilovecck]

During lunch, I was at VIP lounge and had the chance to speak and ask Prof Chan's questions:

He told me that according to his "Chan's channel" 曾氏通道 , the stock market can still have some way to fall, not bottomed yet. The time to buy is when STI hit -95 in his Chan's Channel, now it is at -75...he said that market might or might not go down to -95 but there is a likelihood to fall further as markets only fell since Aug 2011, just about 2 months...unlike Hu Li Yang, he didn't give specific target level for STI, and asked me to check his website for the latest update of "Chan's channel" 曾氏通道 reading.

Hi Dennis, may I know what does -95 and -75 mean above regarding the STI?

"Chan's channel" 曾氏通道 reading is explained here:

http://www.ycchan.net/LRTheory.aspx

Hi Dennis, thks for the link, it seems that there are a lot of good informations and knowledge to learn from his website.

[Dennis Ng]

Hi Dennis, may I know what does -95 and -75 mean above regarding the STI?

"Chan's channel" 曾氏通道 reading is explained here:

http://www.ycchan.net/LRTheory.aspx

Hi Dennis, thks for the link, it seems that there are a lot of good informations and knowledge to learn from his website.

Hi ilovecck,

you're welcome.

I only got to know his website during yesterday's discussion with him during lunch.

[Dennis Ng]

Hu Li Yang says stock markets would start rising on 15 Nov 2011.

At the close of trading for Asian markets on 15 Nov 2011:

Most markets are down, except Shanghai, is up 1.05 points (0.04%), closing at 2,529.76

STI is down 18.56 (0.66%), closing at 2,811.58
Hang Seng is down 159.74 (0.82%), closing at 19,348.44.

Guess Mr Hu finally is NOT 100% correct. Actually, some of my seminar graduates told me that he was wrong before as well, just that he still insist his record is 100% correct all the times.

No one is 100% correct all the times, not even Warren Buffett. But of course, I forgot that Mr Hu mentioned that he is better than Warren Buffett in the seminar in Sep 2011 in Singapore.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

18 Sep 2011

Although Hu Liyang is very proud of himself, I think his intention is to give confidence to the audience by quoting his past success stories (including prediction of lowest point of Taiwan index on 20 Nov 2008). He might have oversold himself but I think he deserves it. Even for Prof Chan, he is also proud of his past achievements to accurately predict the market trend in 2009 and other years when he came to Singapore for lecture.

I think there is no harm to hear both FA (Prof Chan) and TA (Hu Liyang) views. We still need to make our own final decisions.

Hi all,
Prof Chan does NOT keep reminding you how good he is, but Hu Li Yang did, many, many times during his talks.

There is a difference between confident and proud. And Hu Liyang seems to want audience to treat him as God, as he seemed to imply he is 100% accurate in all his previous predictions.

He also shared some Investment Rules he "discovered" which might NOT be totally true, just that the audience may not realise. I hereby quote 3 examples from his talk yesterday:

1. he says that Aug is bad month for stocks, he calls it the Summer Holiday effect. Well, he forgot that last year in Aug 2010, most global stock markets went up and did well.

2. he also says that Nov and Dec are good months for stocks. Well, in year 2007, Singapore STI peaked in Oct 2007 and started falling in Nov...

3. he says year 2012 U.S. stock market would do well becos year 2012 is U.S. Presidential Election year. Well, he forgot that year 2008 was U.S. Presidential Election year as well, but we had the Global Financial Crisis and stock market Crashed then.

Yesterday, he was very certain that stock markets would go up and rally further, he said it in the Morning Group Discussion session and repeated this more than once in his afternoon workshop session.

And his simple message to audience seems to be: just follow Hu Li Yang and you cannot be wrong.

Note: while by now you know the No. 1 question I ask myself is:"What if I'm wrong, will I be financially ok?"

To be overly confident can lead to disastrous consequences. Just share one real life example, in year 2009, Mr Oei Hong Leong was very confident of himself, in the end it led to the biggest Investment Loss of his life, losing over S$1 billion to CITIGROUP. This was well publicized in newspapers.

Mr Hu needs to understand that many in the audience will blindly follow him, so if he is wrong, he might also cause many people to lose alot of money, especially those who believe that Hu Liyang is 100% right all the times.

He also said that when it comes to understanding stocks, he is even better than Warren Buffett. (yes, he actually said that).

He also said that Value Investing and Fundamental Analysis do NOT work. Don't bother about the economy, interest rates, what the governments would do or would NOT do, just purely use the TA Investment Rules he shared in his 2 books.

He also commented that people who practises Positive Thinking are mentally illed or Crazy. I find that Hu thinks he is Right on everything, and seems to cannot distinguish between Facts and Opinion. On the other hand, I cannot find any successful person who do NOT practise Positive Thinking.

He shared what he learned from some of his clients, who are Great Investors in his opinion, but what he shared was basically 2 clients who do the following:

1. one client would buy when nobody wants/interested to buy stocks. Well, this is just Be Greedy when Others are Fearful.

2. another client would buy stocks by 3 batches of 1/3 each. I shared something similarly, in fact, my strategy would be safer, as I share the concept of "Pyramiding your Investment dollars", instead of investing equal amounts over 3 times, you actually invest less and less as the stock prices go higher (just like a pyramid).

Other than these 2 clients, he didn't share any other examples of Investing, most of his other stuff are Rules (I already share 3 examples he quoted which are NOT 100% True all the time). For a Rule to be a Rule, it must work 100% of the time, NOT just some of the times.

He shared that Gold move by 20% movement. Wonder did he back test this as gold price went up from US$35 in 1971 to US$850 in 1980 and went up from about US$250 in 1999 to now about US$1,800 in year 2011.

He seems to suggest that Gold prices are too high now, and likely to Crash, similar to it Crashing in 1980 after going up for 10 years, and this round, Gold prices have gone up for 11 years from 1999 to now.

Note: he didn't understand why Gold prices Crash then? It was a case when interest rates in U.S was raised to 20% which lured people to sell Gold and buy Stocks that pay dividends. While in year 2011, U.S interest rates are at historical low and people are worried about Inflation and US$ falling.

You see, it does make sense to learn about how economy, interest rates and inflation works, and NOT just 100% looking at Charts alone.

He also forgot that US$850 in 1980 was 31 years ago, to factor in inflation in last 31 years, Gold prices today should be about US$2,125, so is US$1,800 gold price a Bubble? Personally, I won't sell Gold unless and until its 50 Day MA cut below 200 day MA. (meaning uptrend reverses to downtrend). As I mentioned many times, I don't need to guess where the markets will move, becos the Markets will tell us where they want to go.

I managed to buy gold at US$800 and hold until now, making over 100% gains, this is possible becos I use both FA and TA, and would not just take profits after making 20% gains.

Hu Liyang did NOT mention anything about Silver. Looks like he only focuses on Gold, which is what the general media talks about.

Of course, you would know that for the last 2 years, I kept saying that it is better to buy Silver than Gold. Silver went up from US$14 in Aug 2009 to now US$40, or up 185%, went up much, much more than Gold prices which went up from US$1,000 to US$1,800 in the same time period, or 80% up.

He is very entertaining and knows how to play to the crowd, I really didn't learn much from his talks, other than him using many, many occasions to keep reminding you how good he is and he wants you to treat him like God as he shared once at a seminar, that it was so crowded he could NOT get to the stage and he was basically carried by people over their shoulders to place him on the stage.

I'm just sharing my opinion of him after listening to him for over 3 hours (first time I listened to him. I went to attend his talk with an Empty Cup Mindset, to learn all that I can from him), but I went away quite disappointed as I felt he is too proud of himself.

It is definitely ok for anyone to have a different opinion of him.