Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

[Dennis Ng]

the World is trying to blame speculators for driving up the prices of Oil and Food.

yup, the True Culprit of Rising Inflation is U.S. flooding the world with dollars, the dollar devaluation and cutting interest rates when U.S. should actually be raising interest rates.

I'm not sure why IMF does NOT reprimand U.S. Guess U.S. has too much influence over IMF?

Almost everything in the world is priced in dollars, Oil, Gold, Silver....the list goes on.

One day the world will wake up that we should dis-continue to use dollar as the main currency of exchange.

In my opinion, this crisis is the beginning of the downfall of U.S. as super power, just like UK losing its super power status after World War II. The world will be a better place if we do not have one superpower but instead of economic power more spread out say, among EU, China, India and Asean.

[Dennis Ng]

yes, Singapore is a beautiful country.

it is re-making itself to be the Haven for The Rich in a few years' time. No capital gain taxes, first S$300,000 of a company's profits at tax rate of only 8.9%; no tax on savings, investments; low individual income tax; safe and secure (the Rich no need to worry about being kidnapped); cosmopolitan city with diverse culture and cuisine; you can set up a company in less than 5 minutes; strong government that plans 10 to 20 years' ahead; Business Gateway to Both the West and the East (China).....the list goes on.

I really cannot find any other country that offers all of the above.

However, Rising Cost of Living will be a major factor. So, the challenge is how to ensure that the bottom 20% of Singapore's population can also keep up and enjoy the fruits of Singapore's success.

[Dennis Ng]

As economic situation worsens, and more and more countries' currencies weaken, people will be looking at buying Gold and Silver, which is a more dependable "form of currency".

金钱; 金银; 银纸 (cantonese).

That is why I see that Gold prices are expected to rise higher than US$1,000 and Silver to over US$20, in a matter of time.

[Dennis Ng]

Actually, after you have been through past boom and bust cycles, you would kinda find it so simple to increase returns and reduce risk by doing Big Cycle Timing.

Why go against the flow? Ride the trend, make the trend your friend is a simple and low stress way to profit.

[Dennis Ng]

As I have mentioned many times, it is not investing that is risky. It is investing without investment knowledge that is risky.

In the article "3 ways to identify end of a Bull market", I mentioned that rise of penny stocks is one obvious signal that the end of bull market might be near.

Of course we need to beware that many penny stocks are rubbish stocks. My definition of rubbish stocks are stocks with little or no earnings and little or no fundamentals to talk about.

However, please note that most penny stocks have already crashed by 70% to over 90%. On the other hand, many blue chips are still trading at high price levels. Personally, I see that blue chips are likely to fall even further from here onwards. eg. DBS at S$19 is not cheap at all.

One penny stock I bought recently is Breadtalk, cannot resist to buy more at 37 cents especially after I noticed Breaktalk's founder, George Quek picking up some stocks at 39 cents.

[Dennis Ng]

Parkway's share price drops to S$2 currently.

I have a friend who bought Parkway shaes a few years ago at about S$1.50...

I asked her did she sell the shares when it was above S$4?

Nope. She said:"I'm a long term investor."

I asked her:"do you realise that if you had sold the shares at S$4, today you can buy back the shares for free, since the price has gone up more than 100%?"

She said:"never mind, I'm still collecting dividends".

I agree. However, it is very obvious that she could have been twice as rich now if she had sold her shares when the share price was S$4. And if she had done that, today, she will have twice the Cash in hand to have the opportunity to make another round of money.

Guess many people forget "Opportunity cost". To them, they think they have lost nothing at all, when it is actually very clear they could have been very much financially better off if they had learned not only to buy low, but also to sell high as well.

I've done it and that is why now I'm so much financially better off than those who had just held on to their shares through the markets ups and downs.

[Dennis Ng]

A Criss is an Opportunity, ONLY for those who have Cash to invest.

For people who are 100% invested and their money are stuck in stocks bought at much higher prices, a Crisis is just a Crisis.

How I know? Well, I've been there before (stuck).

[Dennis Ng]

Most people always forget to take a step back and look at the jungle, instead of being lost in the woods.

Oil price was US$70 1 year ago. Despite Oil prices falling from US$140 to US$120, at US$120, oil prices are still up 71% compared to when it was US$70.

[Dennis Ng]

Post: #121RE: Have Global Stock Markets Bottomed?

I think STI might break 2,800 level....in my opinion is high chance, since the 3 local banks are still trading at high prices.

actually I hope I'm wrong.

[Dennis Ng]

Risky? Putting your money in Bank is VERY RISKY.

Why? Becos your Money is GUARANTEED to shrink over time. ie. you get Poorer and Poorer over time, NOT Richer.

To put it even simpler, you are GUARANTEED to Lose Money. Why? You are guaranteed to lose money becos interest paid on Deposit is LOWER than Inflation Rate.

The Poor and the Middle Class Queue Up deposit Money into Bank, so that the Rich can Borrow the money to become Richer.

Think about it. It took me many years to see this. I now hope by sharing, more people can see it too.

[Dennis Ng]

one's financial resources are limited.

We cannot afford to just grab whatever deals that come along.

Learn to differentiate a Good Deal from a Bad Deal.

When you learn to do so, and only grab the Good Deals, you will become Richer Faster.

Never, never, never forget the concept of Opportunity Cost. If you lose the Opportunity to make a higher returns, that itself is a "loss" even though you might not lose money.

Think about it.

[Dennis Ng]

the value of a Goal is not in achievement of the goal itself, it is in the person we need to become, to achieve our goals - Dennis Ng

[Dennis Ng]

I'm so happy and excited.

in a nail biting game, we finally won our Silver medal in Table Tennis (ladies).....and the heroine is Feng Tian Wei......she played for S'pore in 2 single games, and won twice.....

S'pore double Lee Jiawei and Yue Gu also won the doubles game.

However, both Lee Jiawei and Yue Gu lost their respective Single games.

Majulah Singapura!

The Silver Medal is in the bag....if we beat China in the Final, it'll be Gold...

Majulah Singapura!!!

Now the dilemma is on 17 Aug 2008, should I be watching PM Lee "live" delivering National Day Rally Speech or supporting Team Singapore in the Final against China?

here're some pictures from youtube:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...6TJsyCLpWc

半决赛成绩

冯天薇（新） 对 唐汭序 （韩） 11-5，11-5，11-2

金暻娥（韩） 对 李佳薇 （新） 5-11，11-8，9-11，11-6，11-9

王越古/李佳薇 (新) 对 朴美英/金暻娥 （韩） 11-7，11-6，11-9

唐汭序（韩）对 王越古 （新） 11-8，14-12，11-9

冯天薇（新）对 朴美英 （韩）11-7，12-10，3-11，11-9



左至右 ： 王越古， 李佳薇，冯天薇

[Dennis Ng]

I got started in investing in 1993 by just buying on "hot tips" and "rumours". I remembered my usual words to my remisers were:"What is a good stock to buy huh?"

I made money in 1993, thought that investing is as easy as doing the above. When the "big crash" in 1994 came....I not only paid back the market all the gains I made in 1993 but also lost 30% to 40% of my capital.

Only in around 1999 or so then I really started to learn about investing. I read lots of books, attended seminars, visited internet forums (shareinvestor.com then) and learn from anyone and everyone more knowledgeable and experienced than me.

As I learn more, I came across comments by different people and authors that seem to contradict one another. It actually confused me instead of enlightening.

If I were to be given a chance to do it all again, my advice is "invest in investment knowledge first" before investing your money. And start when you have little money. I was "lucky" that I didn't have a lot of money to lose in 1994 as I only started working in 1993.

I have seen people heading for retirement that lost $500,000 to millions of dollars making the very same mistakes I made, investing on rumours and hot tips. That's why I encourage people to start investing when they have little money as at least they have opportunity to have a comeback and not be totally wiped out by their "tuition fees".

[Dennis Ng]

Mr A bought stock A at S$1......it bottomed at S$0.60....before rising to S$2 in a few years' time....subsequent Top was S$2.50....(nope Mr A didn't catch the Top.

What's Mr A's returns if he sold at S$2? 100%.

Mr B bought stock A at S$0.70.....yes, he missed the bottom, only bought after the stock turned up.....he also sold stock A at S$2.....

What's Mr B's returns? 185.7%.....what a big difference!!! And you thought it is just a 30 cents difference between Mr A and Mr B's cost price...