Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

[Dennis Ng]

Sharing 2 videos with you:

http://www.tudou.com/programs/view/cFY8UY_CizA/

A very touching story!

We never know what we do, even a small gesture or action, might make a Big difference in others...so share your love and concern, like a light house shining




Narayanan Krishnan saw a man who was so hungry that he was eating his own faeces, he had an awakening...

what is he doing? What is the purpose of Life? Watch what he decided to do from then on...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_3BEwpv ... r_embedded

[Dennis Ng]

What has the world/ economy become? With 50% debt write down which had to be borne by retail investors in a voluntary agreement made with private sector can cause such bullish reaction to the market?

For bond holders/ investors, this will mean their holdings be cut 50%.

The agreement guarantees them a €30 billion sweetener in exchange for the deal which will come partly from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and partly from money made by the Greek government on attempts to privatize its state assets.

Who is EFSF? Where does money from EFSF comes from? And sweetener monies also comes partly from Greek government in attempts to privatize its state assets?Qns - Do they still have spare cash to pay sweeteners after paying off their debts which just got increase as Eurozone just agreed to inject $100billion euro in 2012?

Do people really believe that to clear debt is to borrow more?

Hi all,
the Western world is "addicted" to debt like drug addiction.

They are happy that they get their drug and temporary relief now, without thinking that as their "drug" addiction problem get worse, how can they get their next "fix", and how much more "drug" (Debt) do they have to take on in order to settle previous debt problem.

The Euro rescue fund was boosted from 440 billion euros to 1,000 billion (1 trillion) euros, a problem of too much debt is now being "solved" by taking on more debt...

It's a case of kicking the can down the road, the problem is all roads come to an end, and I think the end of the Road is coming soon, probably in year 2012.

I will avoid investing into bonds, as I think it is the last Bubble waiting to burst. Actually, anyone who bought 10 year U.S. government bonds 1 month ago when yield was 1.8% already now staring at losses as yield has gone up to over 2.3%.

Year 2012 might see the coming Crash of U.S. government bonds...

The Warning Signs are there if one bothers to look.

I might be wrong, actually I very much hope I'm wrong, becos if it happens, it will dwarf the Crisis in year 2008...becos this time round, the Debt problem has just gotten much bigger than just U.S. sub-prime loans. It'll be a Global Sovereign Debt Crisis. Even beneath the "strength" of China economy, there are many possible problems that might surface, including massive SME debt problem and possible collapse of many SMEs in China, and probable Crash in Shanghai and Beijing Property market by 30% to 50%.

What has the world/ economy become? With 50% debt write down which had to be borne by retail investors in a voluntary agreement made with private sector can cause such bullish reaction to the market?

For bond holders/ investors, this will mean their holdings be cut 50%.

The agreement guarantees them a €30 billion sweetener in exchange for the deal which will come partly from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and partly from money made by the Greek government on attempts to privatize its state assets.

Who is EFSF? Where does money from EFSF comes from? And sweetener monies also comes partly from Greek government in attempts to privatize its state assets?Qns - Do they still have spare cash to pay sweeteners after paying off their debts which just got increase as Eurozone just agreed to inject $100billion euro in 2012?

Do people really believe that to clear debt is to borrow more?

Hi all,
the Western world is "addicted" to debt like drug addiction.

They are happy that they get their drug and temporary relief now, without thinking that as their "drug" addiction problem get worse, how can they get their next "fix", and how much more "drug" (Debt) do they have to take on in order to settle previous debt problem.

The Euro rescue fund was boosted from 440 billion euros to 1,000 billion (1 trillion) euros, a problem of too much debt is now being "solved" by taking on more debt...

It's a case of kicking the can down the road, the problem is all roads come to an end, and I think the end of the Road is coming soon, probably in year 2012.

I will avoid investing into bonds, as I think it is the last Bubble waiting to burst. Actually, anyone who bought 10 year U.S. government bonds 1 month ago when yield was 1.8% already now staring at losses as yield has gone up to over 2.3%.

Year 2012 might see the coming Crash of U.S. government bonds...

The Warning Signs are there if one bothers to look.

I might be wrong, actually I very much hope I'm wrong, becos if it happens, it will dwarf the Crisis in year 2008...becos this time round, the Debt problem has just gotten much bigger than just U.S. sub-prime loans. It'll be a Global Sovereign Debt Crisis. Even beneath the "strength" of China economy, there are many possible problems that might surface, including massive SME debt problem and possible collapse of many SMEs in China, and probable Crash in Shanghai and Beijing Property market by 30% to 50%.

Can taking on more debt solve economic problem?

Apparently NOT. Look at U.S., it has taken on a Debt Binge in last 2 years and Fed expanded its Balance Sheet by US$2 trillion but U.S. still has 9.1% Unemployment rate. And with Consumption constituting 70% of U.S. economy, until and unless unemployment rate falls, how can U.S. economy recover on a sustainable basis?

The U.S. Fed expanded its Balance Sheet by US$2 trillion in last 2.5 years since Mar 2008...

http://pragcap.com/the-dollar-debasemen ... ance-sheet

[sheiwah]

we know it's the right recipe for a big big mother of all crisis, but the question is when...it can be years...

[Dennis Ng]

we know it's the right recipe for a big big mother of all crisis, but the question is when...it can be years...

Since a Crisis is INEVITABLE becos of the world taking on more debt to solve problem of too much debt.

the sooner it happens, the milder the Crisis. The later it happens, the greater the Crisis.

Based on this logic, I hope it happens soon, in year 2012...how about you?

We don't need to guess, the 50 day MA and 200 day MA would warn us if and when it comes.

[Dennis Ng]

A summary of the "Educated Guess" I made, about what are the likely scenarios that will happen in late year 2011 or year 2012, some of which I have said since Oct 2010...

1. QE3 WILL happen, however, it'll unlikely work, similar to QE1 and QE2 which didn't work in reviving the U.S. economy.

2. U.S. unemployment rate remains high, above 8%, and with Internal Consumption constituting 70% of U.S. economy, it means that U.S. economy unlikely to recover...

3. Printing of money might lead to a final "boost" to the stock markets, but thereafter, likely the Global Stock Markets might Crash and might even close near or lower than the Lows in Mar 2009...means Dow may go as low as below 7,000, STI to about 1,656 (50% down from high of 3,313 reached in Nov 2010).

4. With all the printing of money, inflation might remain high and inflation rate in U.S. might even go up in year 2012, this might force U.S. to increase its interest rates...

5. When U.S. forced to increase interest rates due to increase in inflation rate, this might lead to a Crash in the U.S. government bonds. In the last month or so, actually 10 year U.S. government already fell, with yield going up from 1.8% to about 2.32%...yield on 10 year U.S. government bond might spike up to 4% or higher in year 2012 causing Crash in U.S. Bond markets.

6. Europe's problems will get worse. After Greece, Spain and Italy are likely to go into trouble. When Italy's 10 year bond rates spike up to over 6% for over 1 month, that might lead to Italy spiralling down to Financial Trouble similar to what happened to Greece. Crediting ratings of Italy and Spain likely to be downgraded and tipping them into Trouble.

7. If and when Spain (No. 4 Economy in Euro Zone) and Italy (No. 3 Economy in Euro Zone) go into trouble, it is unlikely that the Richest 2 Euro countries Germany and France have the financial means to rescue them. Thus, when Italy and Spain go down, Euro Zone is likely to disintegrate.

8. China Shanghai and Beijing Property Market likely to crash in year 2012, with prices falling by 30% to 50%. This might trigger price fall in other cities. If and when this happens, many of the bosses of SMEs who have speculated alot of their money in the property market might go into trouble and if they are in trouble and need cashflow, the LAST THING they think about is buying Properties in Singapore, so people hoping that China Rich people will continue buying properties in year 2012 might be disappointed.

9. The Global Financial Crisis likely to hit us in late 2011 or NO later than Jun 2012, and this Crisis would be worse than the last in year 2008. It'll be the first time that U.S. in trouble, Europe in Trouble, and China might have its own problems to deal with as well...

Last round, most countries "solve" the Crisis by lowering interest rates and governments stepping in to borrow money by issuing bonds (borrow more debt to solve the problem of too much debt which caused the last Crisis!!!)

So when the next Crisis hits, most of the countries, would have run out of "medicine" or bullets or "plaster" to alleviate the pain or stop the bleeding...this is why the next Crisis would be worse.

In addition to that, in the last Crisis, we had Low inflation, but in the coming Crisis, we might have additional problem of high inflation. Singapore inflation rate currently stands at 5.5%, much higher than the usual 2% to 3% that Singapore typically experience in normal times...

In the Next Crisis, much of the Savings and Wealth of Middle Class will be wiped out. In the Western countries, due to long term unemployment, many of the middle class will be tipped to Poverty...

As a result of High inflation (high prices) and Unemployment, Social Unrests will outbreak in many countries. Many countries' governments will be toppled, actually this trend has already started...Tunisia, and the latest Libya...just that most people are still NOT seeing the "trend" emerging...

I have prepared myself financially for the up-coming Crisis. I have been repeatedly warning about the up-coming Crisis as early as Oct 2010...I've been on TV, Radio, Newspaper and wrote many, many times in my Personal Finance Column in My Paper to warn about the Crisis. I've been warning about the Crisis in the twice weekly Path to Financial Freedom Workshop since early 2011...I've warned many times in facebook and in whatever means and channel I can have access to.

I believe that I have already done my part.

What if I'm wrong? I ask myself? What if things are NOT as bad as what I anticipated and a Crisis didn't come?

What's the worst case scenario if I'm wrong about a Crisis? Well, I would make less money, that's all.

What if I'm right? I think I'll survive the Crisis very well and even emerge from the Crisis much Richer.

My concern is NOT for myself, my concern is for the many people out there who do NOT even see the possibility of a Global Financial Crisis coming, they think it will just be very mild and nothing serious.

For all these people, I really hope that I'm wrong, so that they will be safe. Becos if I'm right and they didn't prepare themselves for the up-coming Crisis, then these people are likely to see most of their wealth Wiped out and might even have problem paying Housing Loan instalment if they are retrenched in the Crisis.

I hope I don't sound like a broken record. I don't want to. And I hope this is the last time I post this warning and it is up to people to take notice of this posting.

In year 2007, I was personally attacked in 3 Internet Discussion Forums for my comments that a possible Stock Market Crash might happen and a Global Financial Crisis might happen...after my warnings were scoffed and laughed at, I decided to dis-continue to share on any other Public Internet Forums, and only revived this Forum in May 2009, for my seminar graduates to continue their learning journey in this forum.

[Dennis Ng]

I'm probably the first person in Singapore to warn about rising Italy 10 year bond yields. I said that if yield exceeds 6% for more than 1 month, it might lead to a beginning of spiralling down for Italy, that it might lead to further lowering of Credit Rating by S & P and Moody's and lead to more people dumping Italian bonds causing a vicious cycle (or what George Soros termed as "Reflexivity") of further fall in bond price and further UP in bond yield...

If Italy goes into Trouble, it being No. 3 Economy in Euro Zone, it might be too big for Germany and France to bail out...Euro Zone might then be forced to disintegrate, as one option is for the troubled Italy to leave Euro Zone then...and if Italy allowed to leave, other weaker European countries would also want to leave Euro Zone...so that they can print money and do other things UNILATERALLY to try to save their economy instead of need to wait for approval by European Central Bank.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

Uffa! Italian bond yields surge -- The Buzz
cnnmoney

Paul R. La Monica, On Monday October 31, 2011, 1:41 pm EDT

European leaders may have "saved" Greece last week but investors are now worried about an even bigger problem: Italy.

Despite the fact that Europe plans to bolster its bailout fund -- the European Financial Stability Facility -- to the tune of about €1 trillion, the market doesn't believe that will be enough to help Italy if its debt crisis deepens.

How do we know? The proof is in the pudding ... or zuppa inglese in this case. Just look at the Italian bond market. The yield on the benchmark Italian 10-year bond was 6.1% Monday following a disappointing auction for Italian bonds on Friday.

That's troublesome since the 6% level is viewed as an important psychological barrier. If yields stay north of 6%, that may make it tougher for Italy to find buyers for new debt issuances.

The yield on Italian bonds was as low as 5.41% in early October when the global markets first started to become enthralled by the notion the worst was over in Europe.

Even as recently as last Wednesday -- the day before the deal that will allow Greece to cut its debt burden was reached -- the yield was 5.87%.

This is not, as my ancestors would say, "Va bene!" The skepticism about whether the levered up EFSF can rescue Italy shows that the problems in Europe are not over by a long shot.

"Greece may garner the headlines but it only really matters because of what it symbolizes," said Steve Blitz, senior economist for ITG Investment Research in New York. "People need to be worried about Italy. It's always been the issue because it's such a big bond market."

For that reason, investors should be nervous. Lenders to Greece were obviously not thrilled by the 50% write-down on Greek debt that they agreed to last week.

3 biggest holes in Europe's debt deal

But it's one thing to do that with something as small as Greece. A haircut of that magnitude is impossible with Italy. That's probably one reason why leading Italian banks are getting hit hard too.

Shares of UniCredit, the largest bank in Italy, sunk more than 4% on Friday in Milan and were down nearly another 6% Monday. Intesa, the second-largest Italian bank, slipped 7% Monday, while Mediobanca, Italy's third-largest financial institution, fell about 4%.

"While people are applauding the 50% haircut bondholders took on Greece, nobody can afford to voluntarily do that with Italy," said Jeff Sica, president and chief investment officer of SICA Wealth Management in Morristown, N.J.

"You don't need to be a serious economist to look at Italy and realize that its debt is compounding at an alarming rate," Sica added.

Part of the problem is that last week's debt deal did not go far enough. It's a step in the right direction, but it passes the buck to emerging markets.

The hope is that China and other sovereign wealth fund will invest in new special vehicles that will allow the EFSF to add leverage to increase the amount of funding available.

Without the help of China, Brazil, Russia and others, Europe is back where it started. And it still seems clear that the stronger northern European nations aren't keen on the idea of a full bailout of their southern siblings.

"The deal doesn't address any of the fundamental economic issues," said Blitz. "There was no backstop on Italy because there is a reluctance on the part of Germany and others to bail out a country that's not doing enough to reform."

Reform is key. But while some criticize the government of Silvio Berlusconi for not taking necessary steps to get growth back on track, others argue that the fear of the unknown (i.e. who could replace Berlusconi if he's forced out) is also adding to pressure on Italian bond yields.

"There is a lot of political uncertainty. The Berlusconi administration seems to be increasingly fragile," said Laura Sarlo, senior sovereign debt analyst with Loomis Sayles in Boston. "The prospect of early elections and a change in leadership in the next three to six months is out there."

But Sarlo said the biggest challenge facing Italy and other European nations is not politics. It's that their economies are not expanding quickly enough to make much of a dent on their bloated balance sheets.

Bad Europe bets sink MF Global

"Even if interest rates come down a lot, Italy still has a high debt load," said . "It would be difficult to finance that even at rates of 4% to 4.5% if Italy can only manage nominal growth."

With that in mind, Sarlo said she's still worried about Spain as well -- even though some investors are starting to ignore it due to the worries about Italy.

"For the most part, people have been giving Spain a free pass and focusing on Italy," she said. "But house prices are sliding again in Spain and even though banks there getting fixed, they're not completely healthy yet."

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Paul R. La Monica. Other than Time Warner, the parent of CNNMoney, and Abbott Laboratories, La Monica does not own positions in any individual stocks.

[yhendra]

Hi ALL,

A thought-provoking ideas... in which, if you really think about it, it relates with what Dennis has shared below.

http://www.finerminds.com/wealth-succes ... m-bendell/

Uncovering The Money Myth – Awesome Talk by Jem Bendell

According to social activist and consultant Jem Bendell, money has been mathematically proven to cause economic inequality and environmental issues. And that 97% of cash was created by our very own banks who charge us with high interests in order to make profits. Yup. Now ask yourself this, “where does money come from?” and “why do we value that piece of paper?” According to Jem, it is our talents and skills that makes us wealthy. And that we need to learn to use it to find new ways of inventing currency…

Here’s an challenging thought. Should banks become completely interest-free? Or should we become a cash-free society?

What is Wealth?

What is Money?

Is Money Wealth? Does Money Equate to Wealth?

Few people ever think of such questions. Have you?

I want you to think of these questions and share with me your answer.

I will NOT be surprised that some of you would say that Wealth is Assets, or Health is Wealth. Sorry, I think you are confused. They are NOT.

Money is just an agreed Medium of Exchange for Goods and Services. It is NOT wealth itself.

Throughout history, many things had been used as money, Sea shells, Gold, Silver, Paper Money. If you really think about it, Money is NOT wealth, it is just a medium of exchange.

Thus, Money by itself has NO value, it is what we agreed as Value that gives Money Value. Gold is just a metal. How much this Metal is worth, depends on the value we attach to this Metal, that's all, in comparison to say, Silver. So Gold can be used as Money, but Gold is NOT Wealth.

Many people chase after money. This is because they confuse that Money is Wealth.

Now if you know that Money is just Medium of Exchange of Value and is NOT Wealth you would probably realise that why many people chase after money but they are NOT Rich.

Because Money is NOT Wealth!

So what is Wealth?

If you really think about it, it is the actual Provision of Goods and Services that is Wealth. For instance, if you drink milk, the milk is the product and is the actual Wealth. The money you pay for the Milk is just an agreed Value for Milk, that’s all.

I hope by reading up to now, you’re getting clearer about Wealth and Money, not getting more confused.

So what’s the formula for Wealth? Goods and services have to be provided and NEEDED and/or WANTED by PEOPLE to be of Value.

So what determines the Value of Goods and Services? It is the Perceived Value Add a Good or Service has.

Why Perceived Value? Because Value lies in the eye of the Beholder. To someone, a bag with the 2 letters LV is probably worth (perceived to be valued) for S$2,000 or more. So if someone offers you a LV Bag for say, S$1,000, to you, this may be a Good Bargain and you would gladly rush to exchange your S$1,000 for a Bag you perceived to be valued at least S$2,000.

Hope you’re getting clearer now about how it is really the PERCEIVED Value that is really important, since Value is a subjective thing.

So part of the Formula of Wealth is Perceived Value.

Just now we mentioned that Goods and Services have to be Needed and Wanted by people to be of value. A Dog cannot pay for Dog food, it is the Dog Owner (human being) that can pay for Dog Food. So another part of the Formula of Wealth is People.

Obviously, the MORE People who Need or Want something, means more Customers.

So by now we can deduce that Wealth is NOT Money. Money is just an agreed Medium of Exchange of Value.

Wealth is linked to the Number of People and the Amount of Perceived Value. So by combining the 2, we can deduce that the Formula for Wealth to be equal to the Number of People we serve (customers) x Amount of Perceived Value.

For instance, if you serve 1 million people, but the Perceived Value is say, S$1, you may be able to charge S$0.50 for providing this service or product, so your Wealth would equal 1 million x S$0.50 (Price of product/service), or S$500,000.

If you want to be Wealthier, simple, you can
1. Increase the number of people you serve, say to 2 million people, instead of 1 million people.

2. Increase the Value Add, instead of S$1, say double to S$2, then you can double your price to S$1.

So now you will earn 2 million x S$1 or S$2 million a year.

Please take note that for you to have Repeated customers. or to have More Customers (many customers probably come to you by word of mouth), the Price you charge must be Less than the Perceived Value you provide. Otherwise, you’re just CONNING people money.

So do you want Wealth?

Simple, just follow the Formula for Wealth. Do NOT focus on chasing money. Focus on increasing the Number of People you Serve and Focus on Increasing the Perceived Value you provide.

Remember Perceived Value is the Value perceived by the People you Serve (customers), and NOT by you.

That’s why there are a lot of so-called Talented but unhappy people. They think they are very talented and provide lots of Value, but they did NOT realise that it is they themselves Perceive they Provide Lots of Value.

The people they serve (customers) do NOT share the same view and think they provide little Value. That’s why these so-called “Talented People” remained Poor.

For some, what I have just written and what you’ve just Read will be the “aha” moment in your life.

That for the very first time, you finally know the difference between Wealth and Money and the Secrets to Wealth.

I would say that if anyone follow the Formula for Wealth, the person is Guaranteed to become Wealthier and Wealthier. And if you’re NOW earning a Low Income if you really analyse the reason WHY is because you Serve very few people and provide very Low Perceived Value Add.

Do NOT get offended by my words.

Read and re-read this article and you would realise that I’m just speaking the Truth, and NOTHING but the Whole Truth.

I realised that I’ve been given a Gift.

The Gift to understand all these Truths and the ability to share the Knowledge, or I would rather say, Wisdom, in a way that the average person can understand.

And I know that you’re NOT alone. Probably 90% of the World does NOT know the Formula for Wealth and are thus erroneously chasing after Money and wonder why they are NOT Wealthy.

Don’t bother chasing after money, because nobody will give you any money. But people will gladly pay you S$2,198 or even bigger amount if the Perceived Value of what they learn from you is more than this amount. And if you collect S$2,198 from someone and provide Value Add of S$10,000 or more to people that you’re actually Contributing to the Society. And many more people will be willing to pay you S$2,198 or more for your Product or Service.

Do you realise that if everyone in the world do NOT chase after money, but instead FOCUS on Serving More People, and Increasing Value Add to people, that the World will be a Better Place to Live in, and EVERYONE will be Wealthier in the Process?

Think about it.

Wealth is Abundance. The More Value you Give, the More People You Give to (Serve), the Wealthier you’ll become, and so will the Society benefit and become Wealthier as well.

Once you know this Truth, you will NOT be Selfish anymore (think of your own self-interest), but instead think of how to Increase Value Add to others, and How to Serve More People.

Give and You Shall Receive. Do NOT withhold from Giving, unless you want to receive little or NOTHING.

You will NOT be thinking of Competing, and Think Win/Lose because you know that Wealth is Abundance and it is possible for everyone to become Wealthier than they are currently (when they are ignorant about Formula for Wealth). You will be Thinking Win/Win. You’ll probably be like me, try to share with more people your Knowledge/Wisdom and Gifts.

You have NOT joined a Seminar. You have Joined a Revolution of Wealth.

With the NEXT Global Financial Crisis already started without most people noticing, it is important that we start spreading this knowledge/wisdom to as many people as we can, so that everyone will NOT become Poor in the Crisis (losing Money), but may actually become Wealthier through the Crisis (Increasing Wealth – serving more people, increasing Value Add).

Yours sincerely,

Dennis Ng

Sharing my Financial Enlightenment with you.

[Dennis Ng]

Hi,

I observe something similar happen between 28 Mar 2008 and 2nd May 2008. Let see would history repeat itself. Currently STI will correct itself until MA 20 cut above MA 50 which may take around 1 week. This correction may go down to 2740. Once the bottom candle stick of the day touch MA 20, the market will start to move up until MA 20 cut above MA 100, which maybe around mid Nov 2011. When MA 20 Cut above MA 100, possible a big bull run and then hit the resistant at MA 200.

James Tai

I actually don't know what you're writing. So you're saying that market might go up, to how many points?

My overall view is simple.

We are in Bear Market. Any rise in stock markets are likely to be just Dead Cat Bounce or Bear Market Rally.

I would change my view if and ONLY if 50 day MA cut above 200 day MA, which might mean STI above 3,100 level or higher.

STI does NOT stand alone. So I actually watch out for other Major World Indices such as Dow Jones, FTSE index, Shanghai Composite index and Hang Seng index to form my view for Singapore market.

Currently, both Shanghai and Hang Seng are still very weak. Shanghai has to go above 2,750 to be bullish and Hang Seng has to go above 22,000.

Europe has NOT solved its debt crisis. It merely "patched up" some cracks (problem of too much Debt with the "solution" of borrowing more debt. Temporarily, the markets might cheer such a "positive change", but it is merely postponing the problem or "kicking the can down the road" (as I have mentioned many times already)...

So eventually, when the Problem erupts again, possibly in the form of Italy and Spain in trouble, these 2 countries are TOO BIG for Europe or the World to Save...

I share the same view as Tivoli that we are now likely in "Autumn", we are NOT yet even in Winter... you seem to think that this can turn into Summer again, (if I didn't read your views wrongly), which to me is quite unlikely.

But if and when it turns back to Summer, STI 50 day MA cut above 200 day MA, I will change my view and buy stocks again.

Becos I'm a Market Cycle Investor, I made money from Riding the Trend of Major Market Trend, not trying to make short term gains in short term market movements, be it daily or weekly basis.

I believe that most people have full-time jobs similarly would NOT be suitable to try to do short term trading and would become Richer and with much less stress and spend much lesser time investing, using the Market Cycle Investing approach.

Other than TA, I look at FA as well.

What helped me form the view that year 2012 is likely to be worse than year 2011 is after I asked myself these Fundamental questions:
1. is next year Global economy likely to be better or worse than in year 2011?

2. if economy is worse, would company's profits be better or worse than year 2011?

3. if company's profits is likely worse than year 2011, are stock prices likely to be higher or lower than in year 2011?

4. is the global economy at its worst yet? The BEST time to buy stocks is when economy at its worst. So is Global Economy at its worst yet or is likely to get worse in year 2012?

Anyone is welcome to have a different view from mine. The purpose of a discussion forum is to draw out different views and opinions. However, we need to explain the Basis of our views and opinions and the thought process we go through before arriving at our conclusion and views. By doing so, then other forumers can really learn from sharing by fellow forumers.

[Dennis Ng]

Read and re-read what I wrote on 28 Oct 2011.

Italy's 10 year bonds are now above 7% yield, once people start calculating, they would realise that Italy would NOT be able to service its debt at such a high yield, so Italy is likely to spiral downwards, just like Greece...

Spain's 10 year bond yield also spiked up to 5.74%, and very close to 6%, once it goes above 6%, again people would realise that Spain would NOT be able to service its debt at above 6% yield, so Spain likely to follow next, to go into financial trouble.

As I said, recently was the calm before the storm, it is Late Autumn, before Winter. And this Winter would be the COLDEST Winter anyone aged 79 and below had ever gone through and year 2008 would appears to be a very mild and short Winter when compared to the Next Crisis, which might take a few years to bottom...

Seminar graduates would know that I've been warning about the Next Global Financial Crisis as early as Oct 2010, and I said the next Crisis likely to hit us in late year 2011 or year 2012...

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

28 Oct 2011

What has the world/ economy become? With 50% debt write down which had to be borne by retail investors in a voluntary agreement made with private sector can cause such bullish reaction to the market?

For bond holders/ investors, this will mean their holdings be cut 50%.

The agreement guarantees them a €30 billion sweetener in exchange for the deal which will come partly from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and partly from money made by the Greek government on attempts to privatize its state assets.

Who is EFSF? Where does money from EFSF comes from? And sweetener monies also comes partly from Greek government in attempts to privatize its state assets?Qns - Do they still have spare cash to pay sweeteners after paying off their debts which just got increase as Eurozone just agreed to inject $100billion euro in 2012?

Do people really believe that to clear debt is to borrow more?

Hi all,
the Western world is "addicted" to debt like drug addiction.

They are happy that they get their drug and temporary relief now, without thinking that as their "drug" addiction problem get worse, how can they get their next "fix", and how much more "drug" (Debt) do they have to take on in order to settle previous debt problem.

The Euro rescue fund was boosted from 440 billion euros to 1,000 billion (1 trillion) euros, a problem of too much debt is now being "solved" by taking on more debt...

It's a case of kicking the can down the road, the problem is all roads come to an end, and I think the end of the Road is coming soon, probably in year 2012.

I will avoid investing into bonds, as I think it is the last Bubble waiting to burst. Actually, anyone who bought 10 year U.S. government bonds 1 month ago when yield was 1.8% already now staring at losses as yield has gone up to over 2.3%.

Year 2012 might see the coming Crash of U.S. government bonds...

The Warning Signs are there if one bothers to look.

I might be wrong, actually I very much hope I'm wrong, becos if it happens, it will dwarf the Crisis in year 2008...becos this time round, the Debt problem has just gotten much bigger than just U.S. sub-prime loans. It'll be a Global Sovereign Debt Crisis. Even beneath the "strength" of China economy, there are many possible problems that might surface, including massive SME debt problem and possible collapse of many SMEs in China, and probable Crash in Shanghai and Beijing Property market by 30% to 50%.

Can taking on more debt solve economic problem?

Apparently NOT. Look at U.S., it has taken on a Debt Binge in last 2 years and Fed expanded its Balance Sheet by US$2 trillion but U.S. still has 9.1% Unemployment rate. And with Consumption constituting 70% of U.S. economy, until and unless unemployment rate falls, how can U.S. economy recover on a sustainable basis?

The U.S. Fed expanded its Balance Sheet by US$2 trillion in last 2.5 years since Mar 2008...

http://pragcap.com/the-dollar-debasemen ... ance-sheet

[Dennis Ng]

Italy's 10 year bonds are now above 7% yield, once people start calculating, they would realise that Italy would NOT be able to service its debt at such a high yield, so Italy is likely to spiral downwards, just like Greece...

Spain's 10 year bond yield also spiked up to 5.74%, and very close to 6%, once it goes above 6%, again people would realise that Spain would NOT be able to service its debt at above 6% yield, so Spain likely to follow next, to go into financial trouble.

What other things might happen next?

My educated guess taking into consideration latest events and developments:

1. U.S. pulled out troops from Iraq is to prepare an attack on Iran. High chance (80%) chance that Iran would be attacked U.S. and/or NATO, following Libya.

2. With Italian bonds spiking up to over 7% yield, many of the French banks eg. Paribas, BNP etc, would be in trouble, as they have huge exposure to Italian bonds...and when French banks in trouble and downgraded by S & P, it would drag down France as well...so watch out, French banks and France might be next to go into trouble...

3. China banks might also not exactly in good shape, I noticed that the China banks listed in Hong Kong have been sold down heavily...does it signal that even China might be in trouble?

I want to warn again that in my opinion, now we are just in Autumn, we have NOT even entered Winter and the coming Winter will be the COLDEST Winter anyone ever experienced, problem is it might NOT be depression, but might be Stagflation ie. economy stagnant but high inflation.

Many of the world's middle class will be wiped out and fall to poverty level, many countries will have social unrest and governments overthrown. Problem is this time round, other than Financial Crisis, there'll be Climate Crisis, triggering many more Natural Disasters...

Thailand even without Europe's Crisis, with its floods, its economy will be in trouble soon....

Taiwan, I just came back and heard that many firms are retrenching staff...

Back in Singapore, most people cannot feel that anything is wrong, many are unaware of the up-coming Greatest Global Financial Storm coming soon...I hope seminar graduates help do your part to warn others of the possibility and risks.

I hope I'm wrong, if I'm wrong, worst case scenario is I don't make more money from stocks, that's all, and you might embarrass yourself for making such warning. But if I'm right, your warning might have helped "saved" some people out there...so what's your choice?

I've made my choice and have been warning since Oct 2010 of an up-coming Crisis in late year 2011 or year 2012...without fear of being embarrassed if I'm wrong...becos I don't bother about my own pride or reputation, all I care about is how I can save as many people as I can from the up-coming Crisis.

[ilovecck]

Italy's 10 year bonds are now above 7% yield, once people start calculating, they would realise that Italy would NOT be able to service its debt at such a high yield, so Italy is likely to spiral downwards, just like Greece...

Spain's 10 year bond yield also spiked up to 5.74%, and very close to 6%, once it goes above 6%, again people would realise that Spain would NOT be able to service its debt at above 6% yield, so Spain likely to follow next, to go into financial trouble.

What other things might happen next?

My educated guess taking into consideration latest events and developments:

1. U.S. pulled out troops from Iraq is to prepare an attack on Iran. High chance (80%) chance that Iran would be attacked U.S. and/or NATO, following Libya.

2. With Italian bonds spiking up to over 7% yield, many of the French banks eg. Paribas, BNP etc, would be in trouble, as they have huge exposure to Italian bonds...and when French banks in trouble and downgraded by S & P, it would drag down France as well...so watch out, French banks and France might be next to go into trouble...

3. China banks might also not exactly in good shape, I noticed that the China banks listed in Hong Kong have been sold down heavily...does it signal that even China might be in trouble?

I want to warn again that in my opinion, now we are just in Autumn, we have NOT even entered Winter and the coming Winter will be the COLDEST Winter anyone ever experienced, problem is it might NOT be depression, but might be Stagflation ie. economy stagnant but high inflation.

Many of the world's middle class will be wiped out and fall to poverty level, many countries will have social unrest and governments overthrown. Problem is this time round, other than Financial Crisis, there'll be Climate Crisis, triggering many more Natural Disasters...

Thailand even without Europe's Crisis, with its floods, its economy will be in trouble soon....

Taiwan, I just came back and heard that many firms are retrenching staff...

Back in Singapore, most people cannot feel that anything is wrong, many are unaware of the up-coming Greatest Global Financial Storm coming soon...I hope seminar graduates help do your part to warn others of the possibility and risks.

I hope I'm wrong, if I'm wrong, worst case scenario is I don't make more money from stocks, that's all, and you might embarrass yourself for making such warning. But if I'm right, your warning might have helped "saved" some people out there...so what's your choice?

I've made my choice and have been warning since Oct 2010 of an up-coming Crisis in late year 2011 or year 2012...without fear of being embarrassed if I'm wrong...becos I don't bother about my own pride or reputation, all I care about is how I can save as many people as I can from the up-coming Crisis.

Hi Dennis,

Actually for point number 1 (US attacking Iran), I was telling friends that it may happen becos US may want to divert the world attention away from its problem and stimulate its economy as more $ will be pumped into war effort along with re-employment in many strategic industries to meet the war effort. What are ur views on this?

Last week, I was even half joking to my cousin maybe an all out war is not needed to end this crisis, something localised will do and that its easy and in its advantage for US to start a war, just accuse some countries of terrorism or WMD and all the "good" forces will turn their guns towards it.

[Dennis Ng]

Italy's 10 year bonds are now above 7% yield, once people start calculating, they would realise that Italy would NOT be able to service its debt at such a high yield, so Italy is likely to spiral downwards, just like Greece...

Spain's 10 year bond yield also spiked up to 5.74%, and very close to 6%, once it goes above 6%, again people would realise that Spain would NOT be able to service its debt at above 6% yield, so Spain likely to follow next, to go into financial trouble.

What other things might happen next?

My educated guess taking into consideration latest events and developments:

1. U.S. pulled out troops from Iraq is to prepare an attack on Iran. High chance (80%) chance that Iran would be attacked U.S. and/or NATO, following Libya.

2. With Italian bonds spiking up to over 7% yield, many of the French banks eg. Paribas, BNP etc, would be in trouble, as they have huge exposure to Italian bonds...and when French banks in trouble and downgraded by S & P, it would drag down France as well...so watch out, French banks and France might be next to go into trouble...

3. China banks might also not exactly in good shape, I noticed that the China banks listed in Hong Kong have been sold down heavily...does it signal that even China might be in trouble?

I want to warn again that in my opinion, now we are just in Autumn, we have NOT even entered Winter and the coming Winter will be the COLDEST Winter anyone ever experienced, problem is it might NOT be depression, but might be Stagflation ie. economy stagnant but high inflation.

Many of the world's middle class will be wiped out and fall to poverty level, many countries will have social unrest and governments overthrown. Problem is this time round, other than Financial Crisis, there'll be Climate Crisis, triggering many more Natural Disasters...

Thailand even without Europe's Crisis, with its floods, its economy will be in trouble soon....

Taiwan, I just came back and heard that many firms are retrenching staff...

Back in Singapore, most people cannot feel that anything is wrong, many are unaware of the up-coming Greatest Global Financial Storm coming soon...I hope seminar graduates help do your part to warn others of the possibility and risks.

I hope I'm wrong, if I'm wrong, worst case scenario is I don't make more money from stocks, that's all, and you might embarrass yourself for making such warning. But if I'm right, your warning might have helped "saved" some people out there...so what's your choice?

I've made my choice and have been warning since Oct 2010 of an up-coming Crisis in late year 2011 or year 2012...without fear of being embarrassed if I'm wrong...becos I don't bother about my own pride or reputation, all I care about is how I can save as many people as I can from the up-coming Crisis.

Hi Dennis,

Actually for point number 1 (US attacking Iran), I was telling friends that it may happen becos US may want to divert the world attention away from its problem and stimulate its economy as more $ will be pumped into war effort along with re-employment in many strategic industries to meet the war effort. What are ur views on this?

Last week, I was even half joking to my cousin maybe an all out war is not needed to end this crisis, something localised will do and that its easy and in its advantage for US to start a war, just accuse some countries of terrorism or WMD and all the "good" forces will turn their guns towards it.

Hi ilovecck,

I share the same views. At the same time, U.S. is also eyeying on Iran's Oil...

[Dennis Ng]

Why is the World filled with Go-Getters?

Once you understand the Universal Law is Give and You Shall Receive, you will choose to become a Go-Giver.

So go forth, to give. True Giving is without thinking of returns or rewards, with the pure intention to Give.

We can change the world by first changing ourselves.

Be a Go-Giver, influence your relatives, friends and colleagues to do the same, and when more people give, the World will become a Better place for all.

[Dennis Ng]

Watch out, despite European Central Bank buying, Italian 10 year bond yield is inching back to 7%, at 6.93% on 15 Nov 2011.

And Spain has for the first time, see its 10 year bond yield above 6%, at 6.23%, so watch out, Spain is the next domino to fall.

And watch out France, even France is NOT really safe, its 10 year bond yield now at 3.64%, highest level since joining Euro, compared to 1.78% for German 10 year bond yield.

Watch out, some French banks will start to report trouble due to need to write off 50% of Greece bonds they hold...

Once again, just to remind everyone, in my opinion, we are still in late Autumn, Winter has NOT even arrived yet.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

31 May 2011 The Euro Zone is artificially created by 17 countries choosing to "band together". The countries are very different, and some are financially very weak, eg. the PIGS.

The Financially weakest are ranked as follows:

1. Greece
2. Ireland
3. Portugal
4. Spain
5. Italy

So far, 3 out of the 4 PIGS are already in trouble, the good news is these 3 PIGs are "small", in terms of their economies as compared to the whole of Euro Zone.

However, Spain is ranked No. 4 and Italy is ranked No. 3 in terms of size of economy. In my opinion, it is just a matter of time Spain might get into trouble, and when that happens, I think the 2 Richest countries Germany and France might think twice about rescuing Spain and this might lead to the disintegration and break up of Euro Zone.

This is my prediction of what is likely to happen.

Below is an article on Europe Crisis.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

18 Sep 2011

I think by end of year 2012, Euro zone will NOT exist in its same form today, some countries would have left Euro zone, or it might break up.

Greece is technically bankrupt, and NOTHING can change this fact.

Ex Minister Mentor Mr Lee Kuan Yew also think that Euro zone will collapse and cannot be saved.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

Euro zone cannot be saved, says Mr Lee
Collapse will be painful, but one-tier Europe too hard to achieve, he says


By Rachel Chang & Teo Wan Gek

FORMER Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew believes the euro zone cannot be saved, although the collapse of the currency union will be 'a very painful business'.

Speaking at a dialogue yesterday to mark the seventh anniversary of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, he said European leaders will try very hard to keep the euro zone from collapsing as this would be 'an admission that their aspiration of one Europe is not achievable'.

'But I do not see it being saved. But they'll try and keep it going.'

He was speaking in response to a participant asking if Singapore would buy the bonds of debt-ridden European countries. The participant was referring to reports that Italy had asked China to buy its bonds.

Mr Lee said Singapore's gross domestic product is a fraction of the European Union's, and thus it is 'in no position to rescue the Europeans, nor do I think that buying their bonds will necessarily rescue them'.

He pointed to the currency union among the 17 EU countries as the problem. 'A fundamental problem of the euro is that it makes everybody, every European country, march to the same drummer whereas each country has its own tempo and you cannot expect the Greeks to march like the Germans, so the problem will not go away.

'Eventually, I'm not sure when because it would be an admission of the aspiration being out of reach, a two-tier Europe or even a three-tier Europe is possible but a one-tier Europe with different spending habits, thrift habits and discipline is too difficult to achieve.'

The euro came into existence in 1999 in the hope of increasing economic cooperation and growth in Europe, while shoring up the EU's presence on the world stage.

But as several euro zone countries face debt crises, the currency union has come under fire because it forces other European countries to bail out the troubled member nations, as well as denies policymakers the flexibility of monetary policy as a tool to fight recession.

Mr Lee also said he did not think the Chinese are interested in 'rescuing Europe for the sake of Europe. They're interested in buying euro bonds cheap and hope that it will give a good return'.

Recent reports estimate that up to one-quarter of China's reserves may be euro-denominated.

When moderator Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said that a strong EU would be in China's geopolitical interests, Mr Lee disagreed. He said: 'No, no, no. It's easier to deal with 27 weak European countries than to deal with 27 united European countries.'

rchang@sph.com.sg

wangekt@sph.com.sg

[Dennis Ng]

According to the Investment Clock theory, the stock market typically bottoms when economy is at its worst.

Look at year 2003, STI was lowest in Mar 2003, during depth of SARS.

Look at year 2009, STI was lowest in Mar 2009, when Singapore reported the worst quarterly economic figures for Jan to Mar 2009.

Is Singapore economy at it worst NOW?

Of course NOT, we are just starting to slow down. So anyone getting "greedy" while others are fearful right NOW is a little too early.

Singapore economy might hit the bottom in year 2012, NOT now

...and property prices might start falling in late year 2012 as there is impending huge supply in year 2013 and year 2014.

I came back from Taiwan last week and was told that many factories in Taiwan are now retrenching people....

Singapore still enjoying rolling good times for now, so few Singaporeans can feel or know that a Global Financial Storm is approaching soon...

Just my opinion, you can have a different opinion.