Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

[bulltick]

Market view from DBS Chief Investment Officer

He is a very good speaker.

He also mentioned that market will only bottom(eg. 1942-beginning of WWII and 1982-US in recession & Fed fund spike to 10% ) when the economy is at its worst condition.


http://nextinsight.net/index.php/story- ... s-sellingq

[Dennis Ng]

Be prepared for the next bad news from Europe, and that is the likelihood of France AAA Credit Rating of being downgraded, it is just a matter of time, not a matter of whether it might happen.

The Europe's situation is worse than the views expressed in the latest year 2011 Financial Stability Review by MAS.

Note: MAS warns of a protracted Global Slowdown in the report:

http://www.mas.gov.sg/resource/publicat ... ov2011.pdf

I've said many other things when being interviewed by Channel 8 News today but the TV station chose to delete all the negative things I said.

eg.

1. Italy and Spain would go into trouble, when that happens, Euro zone will disintegrate.

2. U.S. debt exceeded US$15 trillion, next year likely to need to raise debt ceiling again, when that happens, it might trigger a loss in confidence and U.S. government bonds might Crash, U.S interest rates might spike up.

3. China has its own problems. The property bubble of Shanghai and Beijing likely to burst in year 2012 and property prices might fall 30% to over 50%, as many SMEs borrowed money to speculate in property, propery price Crash might result in many SMEs collapsing as well.

4. When Europe debt crisis worsens, many U.S. banks such as JP Morgan, CITIBANK, Bank of America might be in trouble too as these banks have sold alot of Credit Default Swaps on Europe government bonds and would be liable to alot of losses...

5. The next Crisis when it happens would be much worse than year 2008 becos it'll be the first time that U.S., Europe and China, the 3 Largest Economies in the world would be all in trouble...

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

[Dennis Ng]

I found many similarities in views expressed by Jim Rogers and myself, of course, some of these things I've said for a few months already and some as long as since Oct 2010:

It just shows that the coming Crisis can be clearly seen "or foreseen" by people with the necessary Knowledge and Experience. It's study of Cause and Effect and not exactly making predictions.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

pt 1/3 Jim Rogers on the Alex Jones - 14 Nov 2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7e_khCAgnM


pt 2/3 Jim Rogers on the Alex Jones - 14 Nov 2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBuIPCZq ... ure=relmfu


pt 3/3 Jim Rogers on the Alex Jones - 14 Nov 2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdUMIN99 ... ure=relmfu

[Dennis Ng]

The 1900s belong to the British Empire....then after 2nd World War, U.S. was the next Great Nation to rise and replace Great Britain...

What's the Root of U.S. and Europe's problem?

It's Spending more than they Earn...

And it would all end very badly, for themselves and for those who lent them money (creditors)...

It is simple Cause and Effect, I'm NOT sure why most people do NOT "get it".

Spending more than you earn leads to Financial Ruin, it is just a matter of time.

The only way to Financial Prosperity and Financial Freedom is Spend less than you Earn.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

2012 -- The End of America -- trillion dollar deficits Collapse the Economy by end of decade

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlOUEpLQ ... re=related

[Dennis Ng]

In July 2011, U.S. total debt reached US$14.3 trillion and just obtained increase in limit by US$2.1 trillion to US$16.4 trillion.

In Nov 2011, U.S. total debt now more than US$15 trillion, so this failure to cut deficit is just a small problem, bigger problem would be the NEED to raise the Debt limit of U.S. in year 2012 again when it reaches US$16.4 trillion.

By then, the Credit Rating of U.S. might need to be cut again, from the current AA+ to ???

Imagine, U.S. took just 4 months for its debt to increase US$700 billion, amazing.

So year 2012 likely to be the Worst Global Financial Crisis anyone has ever lived through. Hope you're prepared. I have long prepared myself and starting warning possibility of Global Financial Crisis in late year 2011 or year 2012 since Oct 2010.

It's NOT that I can predict the future. Just that I've been through Crisis before (Asian Crisis in 1998) and thereafter learned how to look out for signs of Crisis. This is why I correctly "predicted" the year 2008 Crisis (in year 2007) and now this up-coming Crisis (which I warned likely to happen in late 2011 or year 2012 since Oct 2010...

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

Business News

US admits debt-deal failure
Posted: 22 November 2011 0628 hrs


WASHINGTON: Lawmakers heading a US congressional "supercommittee" announced Monday that the panel had failed to reach a deal to rein in galloping deficits, adding to world jitters about Europe's debt crisis.

"We are deeply disappointed that we have been unable to come to a bipartisan deficit reduction agreement," Democratic Senator Patty Murray and Republican Representative Jeb Hensarling said in a joint statement.

The announcement confirmed widespread expectations that the 12-member panel would fail in its mission to cut US deficits by $1.2 trillion over 10 years amid partisan feuds over tax hikes for the rich and cuts to social spending.

Under the August law that begat the committee, the deadlock calls for draconian automatic cuts to domestic programs and the military come January 2013, though lawmakers have plenty of time to repeal those cutbacks.

"Despite our inability to bridge the committee's significant differences, we end this process united in our belief that the nation's fiscal crisis must be addressed and that we cannot leave it for the next generation to solve," said Murray and Hensarling.

"We remain hopeful that Congress can build on this committee's work and can find a way to tackle this issue in a way that works for the American people and our economy," they said.

US President Barack Obama was to make a public statement at 5:45 pm (2245 GMT, 6.30am Singapore time) on the talks' collapse.

- AFP/wk

[Dennis Ng]

Time is our most precious Asset.

Successful people have a definite purpose in life, most people will look blank if you ask them what is their purpose in life?

Successful people make decisions quickly, becos they only do things that lead to achieving their major purpose in life.

They don't waste time, I spend several hours on facebook and this discussion forum Daily to educate the public, which is my Personal Life Purpose, NOT here to engage in idle chat or one-on-one questions or consultation.

Ask yourself: are you spending time and effort daily in pursuing your Purpose in life or just idling around?

Life is too precious to waste time.

it's NOT nice to hear, but I want you to think about what I say.

If you do NOT have a definite Purpose in your life, then you're just a Drifter, you're drifting through life, wasting your precious life and time on earth.

Not nice to hear, but please calm yourself down and think about what I just said, and you would realise that what I said is the Truth.

The sad fact is estimated over 90% of the people in the world do NOT have a definite purpose in life.

[Dennis Ng]

huge supply of condos completing in year 2013 and 2014...

URA information on future property supply which Developers and Property Agents might NOT want you to know is here: http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2011/pr11-135.html

Singapore property prices might fall by 10% to 30% by year 2013...

people buying properties hoping to sell at a profit in year 2014 may need to pray very hard...

the next Global Financial Crisis is likely to be Deeper and more prolonged...

it might come in year 2012 and drag on till year 2014...

Is S$1,200 psf for suburban condos considered Reasonable Price? It's a "standard price" currently, but prices are NOT stagnant and can go up or down according to market sentiments.

Rental rates might fall by 30% and Interest rates on Housing Loans might spike up from 1% to 3% in year 2013...

Hope people are prepared for such possibilities before they invest into properties now.

Actually I own http://www.HousingLoanSG.com/ , I should saying positive things about property if I'm interested in my own Business Interests.

However, the only guide to what I say is my Conscience, nothing else really matters to me.

Money cannot buy me, not even during years of struggle when I was NOT rich then.

Now that I'm financially free, the more I will NOT let financial interests affect what I say.


Extracted from the link above: As at the end of 3rd Quarter 2011, there was a total supply of 76,255 uncompleted private residential units from projects in the pipeline6, higher than the 71,111 units in 2nd Quarter 20117 (see Annexes E-1 & E-28). The pipeline supply of 76,255 units was the highest ever recorded since such data was first available in 1999.

Of the supply in the pipeline, 39,111 units remained unsold as at 3rd Quarter 2011.

Why not property agent provide the above URA supply of Residential properties as part of their Brochures to potential customers at NEW Property Launch?

If Property Agent is really keen on serving clients' interests, this is relevant information for ALL potential buyers of property, isn't it so?

Property market very hot?

URA says there are 39,111 units remained unsold as at 3rd Quarter 2011. Should NOT property agents tell their potential customers this information as well?

[Dennis Ng]

one of my multi-millionaire sifus advised me: Dennis, everyone has an opinion. However, very few people's Opinion is worth listening to.

If someone expresses an opinion, please ask him/her to provide some supporting FACTS and Information, if he/she is unable to, then just ignore whatever opinion he/she expresses.

Also check whether the person has sufficient knowledge/experience in the Topic that he is expressing a view on.

We don't want to waste our time and worse, LOSE MONEY listening to INCOMPETENT people who are Ignorant about what they talk about.

[Dennis Ng]

The "Law of Attraction" was "popularised" by the Movie "The Secret".

However, more than 80 years ago, Napoleon Hill already shared and explained the Law of Attraction in his book "The Laws of Success".

And in this short video, he also shares the Power and Law of Attraction: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQ0hHIQI ... re=related

[Dennis Ng]

Finances is just one part of our life, other areas are important, such as Health, our contribution to society, Relationship with relatives, friends and colleagues and others etc.

However, a person who struggle financially would not have much time for anything else.

A person with Financial Freedom basically can choose what to do with his/her time.

According to Napoleon Hill, author of Think and Grow Rich, there are 12 Riches of our life and Economic (Financial) security is only 1 of the 12, and he puts it as the last Riches, becos once you have the first 11 Riches, you would definitely become Rich Financially. Financial Freedom really is a "side effect" and is NOT the "be all" and "aim all" (Ultimate Aim).

You should have an ultimate aim and financial riches is just a side effect of you achieving your main aim.

I agree with him full-heartedly. http://www.thesecretofsuccess.com/profi ... -riches-of

you can listen to Napoleon Hill sharing the 12 Riches of Life here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hd2zHUyC1D4

[Dennis Ng]

with this happening, gold and silver prices likely to go up becos value of currencies, including U.S. Dollar are going down.

Once again, the world politicians are trying to kick the can further down the road. (their objective is to make sure that things do not unravel before they step down from power, Obama included).

However, the problem with this strategy (kicking can down the road) is that all roads come to an end.

And in my opinion, the end of the Road is sometime in year 2012, and possibly by Jun 2012. So there might be a last rally in stocks before the Unavoidable Crash and the unavoidable Global Financial Crisis.


Cheers!

Dennis Ng


from National Inflation Association http://inflation.us

30 Nov 2011

The Federal Reserve along with the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank are all lowering their U.S. dollar swap rates by 50 basis points! This is going to create massive worldwide monetary inflation and flood the world with U.S. dollars!

The Fed claims that these coordinated actions will enhance their capacity to provide liquidity support to the global financial system in order to "ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity."

It was also announced this morning that arrangements have been made to establish temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements so that liquidity can be provided in each jurisdiction in any of their currencies should market conditions so warrant. Although the Fed said, "there is no need to offer liquidity in non-domestic currencies other than the U.S. dollar" at this time, the stage is now set to create massive worldwide monetary inflation in other fiat currencies as well. The whole entire global fiat currency system could soon come to an end. The only solution to the upcoming hyperinflationary crisis will be a global digital gold backed currency.

NIA believes China will soon announce that they have dramatically increased their gold holdings to backup their rapidly growing foreign currency reserves, which have now reached $3.2 trillion. China's central bank just announced this morning that they are lowering their reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points to 21% from 21.5%!

[Dennis Ng]

well, on 28 Nov 2011, I already shared that a rally in stock markets is likely to come. And I took profits on 5/6 of my earlier shorts as the markets had been down for consecutive 9 days and poised for rebound even without any good news.

Yesterday, after 6 central banks announced injecting liquidity again I mentioned stocks, commodities likely to go up. And yesterday, I went in to buy some silver at US$32.37.

Silver prices still below 200 day MA, but likely to move above soon.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

30 Nov 2011

with this happening, gold and silver prices likely to go up becos value of currencies, including U.S. Dollar are going down.

Once again, the world politicians are trying to kick the can further down the road. (their objective is to make sure that things do not unravel before they step down from power, Obama included).

However, the problem with this strategy (kicking can down the road) is that all roads come to an end.

And in my opinion, the end of the Road is sometime in year 2012, and possibly by Jun 2012. So there might be a last rally in stocks before the Unavoidable Crash and the unavoidable Global Financial Crisis.


Cheers!

Dennis Ng


from National Inflation Association http://inflation.us

30 Nov 2011

The Federal Reserve along with the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank are all lowering their U.S. dollar swap rates by 50 basis points! This is going to create massive worldwide monetary inflation and flood the world with U.S. dollars!

The Fed claims that these coordinated actions will enhance their capacity to provide liquidity support to the global financial system in order to "ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity."

It was also announced this morning that arrangements have been made to establish temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements so that liquidity can be provided in each jurisdiction in any of their currencies should market conditions so warrant. Although the Fed said, "there is no need to offer liquidity in non-domestic currencies other than the U.S. dollar" at this time, the stage is now set to create massive worldwide monetary inflation in other fiat currencies as well. The whole entire global fiat currency system could soon come to an end. The only solution to the upcoming hyperinflationary crisis will be a global digital gold backed currency.

NIA believes China will soon announce that they have dramatically increased their gold holdings to backup their rapidly growing foreign currency reserves, which have now reached $3.2 trillion. China's central bank just announced this morning that they are lowering their reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points to 21% from 21.5%!

28 Nov 2011

With Europe's situation looking precarious, looks like U.S. likely to push for QE3, they can call it any name they want, but any Monetary Easing is "Printing money" and serves the same purpose of injecting liquidity...

This can happen as soon as in Jan 2012...(in my opinion)...

When that happens, stock markets might have a last Significant Rebound (still likely to be a Bear Market Rally if the 50 day MA does NOT cut 200 day MA upwards in the rebound, before the Ultimate Crash in year 2012...

This situation is quite similar to what I expected in early 2011, just that STI is unlikely to make a new high, above 3,900, and may be unlikely to even exceed the high of 3,313 in Nov 2010 in this last Rally.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-2 ... asing.html

Dealers See Fed Buying $545B Mortgage Bonds

Dealers See Fed Buying $545B Mortgage Bonds
By Daniel Kruger and Cordell Eddings -


The biggest bond dealers in the U.S. say the Federal Reserve is poised to start a new round of stimulus, injecting more money into the economy by purchasing mortgage securities instead of Treasuries.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his fellow policy makers, who bought $2.3 trillion of Treasury and mortgage-related bonds between 2008 and June, will start another program next quarter, 16 of the 21 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade with the central bank said in a Bloomberg News survey last week. The Fed may buy about $545 billion in home-loan debt, based on the median of the 10 firms that provided estimates.

The company forecasts the Fed will buy $800 billion of securities, which may include Treasuries.

Efforts to bolster the economy are taking on new urgency with $1.2 trillion in automatic government spending cuts slated to begin in 2013. The Commerce Department said last week that gross domestic product expanded at a 2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, less than the 2.5 percent it originally projected, and Europe’s worsening debt crisis threatens to further curb global growth.

The Fed is taking the view that “even if U.S. fundamentals look to be relatively okay, we’ve got to keep our eye on any contagion from the European stresses,” Dominic Konstam, head of interest-rate strategy at primary dealer Deutsche Bank AG in New York, said in a Nov. 22 telephone interview. “It’s in that context that they’re willing to do more.”

Policy makers have scope to print more money to buy bonds in a third round of quantitative easing, or QE, as the outlook for inflation eases.

“There is a significant chance that QE3 will be deployed, especially in the form of MBS purchases, if inflation expectations fall enough,” Srini Ramaswamy and other debt strategists at JPMorgan in New York wrote in a Nov. 25 report.

“The prospect of the Fed buying MBS under a QE3 program is a powerful wildcard, and should limit the downside in the asset class,” the JPMorgan strategists wrote in their report last week. “Given attractive spreads currently, we recommend heading into 2012 with an overweight,” they said in reference to a strategy where investors own a greater percentage of a security or asset class than is contained in benchmark indexes.

[Dennis Ng]

A look at "seriousness" of Global Sovereign Debt problem.

Italy wanted to sell 8 billion euros of bonds, but only managed to sell 7.5 billion euros.

It paid over 7% for the issuing of the bonds, (about double the rate they last sold the bonds).

In year 2012, Italy has 700 billion Bonds due for refinancing, that's just 700 times more bonds to sell, "small problem".

And U.S. total debt just crossed US$15 trillion and likely to need to raise its debt ceiling in year 2012 again, as it inches near the New increased debt ceiling of US$16.4 trillion.

So tighten your seat belts, after the Rally in stock markets (likely to start now), there'll still be the unavoidable Market Crash and Global Financial Crisis.

[Dennis Ng]

1 Nov 2011

6 Central Banks to inject liquidity into markets.

China reduce bank reserve requirements, (also injecting liquidity into banks).

U.S. likely to launch QE3 too.

So there likely be a last Rally in stock markets before the market Crash.

The Financial Crisis is caused by the world faces the problem of too much debt, so how would pumping in more money through more debt solve the problem?

It only postpone the problem and it is inevitable when the problems finally come to roost (after they run out of "bullets"), it would be Worse than year 2008 Financial Crisis.

Year 2008 Financial Crisis was caused by too much debt by individuals and companies and these 3 years the problem is "solved" by governments stepping in to borrow more money since individuals can't borrow anymore.

[viswanathan]

Jim Rogers thinks Marc Faber has got it wrong about China, when he says the country is possibly headed for a hard landing, which would lead to a devastating impact on commodities around the world.

"Marc still does not understand China. There are going to be several hard landings in the next few years, but China’s will be less hard overall than others such as Greece, U.S., et al," Rogers told CNBC in an email.

Rogers says some parts of China's economy will have a "hard landing" but other parts will continue to boom. He says the commodity market will have a correction, but rebutted Faber's view that it would be devastating.

"Yes, there will be consolidations in the commodity bull market just as all markets have consolidations," he said. "In 1987, stocks declined 40-80 percent worldwide, but it was not the end of the secular bull market in stocks."

Rogers said he was still long commodities, adding that gold went up 600 percent in the 1970s and then corrected by 50 percent scaring a lot of people. "It then continued its secular bull market and rose 850 percent. Corrections are the normal way of all markets."

According to Faber, Rogers' bullish call on commodities is misplaced. "If I was always bullish about commodities and completely missed out on the crash in 2008, then obviously, having tied essentially my reputation to commodities, I'd continue to be bullish," Faber said.

But Rogers said Faber had got it wrong when it came to his call in 2008. "I proclaimed repeatedly far and wide that one should not buy commodities in the run up phase. I also explained that I was not selling mine since we were [and are] in a secular bull market," Rogers said.

"I explained that my shorts of Citibank, Fannie Mae, all the investment banks and homebuilders, plus my long position in the Japanese yen would protect me in any sell-offs. When one’s shorts decline 90-100 percent, it is a good year even when one’s longs decline," Rogers added.

According to Rogers, Faber is the one who has made many wrong calls, arguing that he "totally missed" the secular bull market in commodities that began in early 1999.

"Also back in those days, he and his friends proclaimed often that China was a mess and would continue to be so," Rogers said. "They all were wildly excited about Russia. Some of his friends even left China to start operations in Russia. We all know how that resulted."

source : http://www.cnbc.com/id/45520844