Hu Li Yang

[shazamnick]

I likes this....

Quoted from Hu Li Yang
"Normal people will not make money. Crazy people make money."

See video for more info.





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coqHFWr344A



Understanding the method of investing. 95% of people lost money because they don't know the correct understanding of investing.

It is a pity that many people lost money in stock.
This motivates me to come forward to coach and mentor people on investing.

The best method to invest is to call your best friends. Call to ask them whether this stock can buy or not. If 9 out of 10 says can buy the stock, then you should not buy. if they say cannot buy, it is about time to buy.

Investing is like dancing. If you move the right leg forward, you continue to be right. If you move the first wrong leg forward, you continue to be wrong.

Normal people will not make money. Crazy people make money. When normal people buy stock, crazy people don't dare to buy. When normal people scared to sell, crazy people start to buy.

if the tempo of dancing in right you can be right all the way. Some people tempo dancing is wrong

When people have no money and stock dive, you with load of money is king. You can buy cheap stock. The sentiment is low, is about time for opportunity to enter market.

Opportunity appears when people are scared to trade.
Be afraid when people buying and making money.


When you learn investing is to part of life. weak sheep. to make small profit and lost big money.
Have principle to buy low and sell high. Ensure double profit stock to sell. Ability to make profit in double or triple is about time to buy.
Don't keep watching the market daily.

eg SARS. the whole plane only me, one passenger. stock dive. To buy as the fundamental of the stock is strong. chance is important. one big opportunity in one year. Average about 1.3 great opportunity in a year. sometime 3 great opportunities.

One must have guts. double profit and exit.

$10 to $20 has high opportunity than $5 stock to $10. That is statistics analysis result.

principle investing rule number ONE : buy low sell high must be right. Know very well the stock.

[ry9918]

Hi

Hu Li Yang mentioned share market will be GREAT on 15th Nov 2011.

Anything GREAT happening TODAY???

[Dennis Ng]

Hi

Hu Li Yang mentioned share market will be GREAT on 15th Nov 2011.

Anything GREAT happening TODAY???

Hu Li Yang says stock markets would start rising on 15 Nov 2011.

At the close of trading for Asian markets on 15 Nov 2011:

Most markets are down, except Shanghai, is up 1.05 points (0.04%), closing at 2,529.76

STI is down 18.56 (0.66%), closing at 2,811.58
Hang Seng is down 159.74 (0.82%), closing at 19,348.44.

Guess Mr Hu finally is NOT 100% correct. Actually, some of my seminar graduates told me that he was wrong before as well, just that he still insist his record is 100% correct all the times.

No one is 100% correct all the times, not even Warren Buffett. But of course, I forgot that Mr Hu mentioned that he is better than Warren Buffett in the seminar in Sep 2011 in Singapore.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

18 Sep 2011

Although Hu Liyang is very proud of himself, I think his intention is to give confidence to the audience by quoting his past success stories (including prediction of lowest point of Taiwan index on 20 Nov 2008). He might have oversold himself but I think he deserves it. Even for Prof Chan, he is also proud of his past achievements to accurately predict the market trend in 2009 and other years when he came to Singapore for lecture.

I think there is no harm to hear both FA (Prof Chan) and TA (Hu Liyang) views. We still need to make our own final decisions.

Hi all,
Prof Chan does NOT keep reminding you how good he is, but Hu Li Yang did, many, many times during his talks.

There is a difference between confident and proud. And Hu Liyang seems to want audience to treat him as God, as he seemed to imply he is 100% accurate in all his previous predictions.

He also shared some Investment Rules he "discovered" which might NOT be totally true, just that the audience may not realise. I hereby quote 3 examples from his talk yesterday:

1. he says that Aug is bad month for stocks, he calls it the Summer Holiday effect. Well, he forgot that last year in Aug 2010, most global stock markets went up and did well.

2. he also says that Nov and Dec are good months for stocks. Well, in year 2007, Singapore STI peaked in Oct 2007 and started falling in Nov...

3. he says year 2012 U.S. stock market would do well becos year 2012 is U.S. Presidential Election year. Well, he forgot that year 2008 was U.S. Presidential Election year as well, but we had the Global Financial Crisis and stock market Crashed then.

Yesterday, he was very certain that stock markets would go up and rally further, he said it in the Morning Group Discussion session and repeated this more than once in his afternoon workshop session.

And his simple message to audience seems to be: just follow Hu Li Yang and you cannot be wrong.

Note: while by now you know the No. 1 question I ask myself is:"What if I'm wrong, will I be financially ok?"

To be overly confident can lead to disastrous consequences. Just share one real life example, in year 2009, Mr Oei Hong Leong was very confident of himself, in the end it led to the biggest Investment Loss of his life, losing over S$1 billion to CITIGROUP. This was well publicized in newspapers.

Mr Hu needs to understand that many in the audience will blindly follow him, so if he is wrong, he might also cause many people to lose alot of money, especially those who believe that Hu Liyang is 100% right all the times.

He also said that when it comes to understanding stocks, he is even better than Warren Buffett. (yes, he actually said that).

He also said that Value Investing and Fundamental Analysis do NOT work. Don't bother about the economy, interest rates, what the governments would do or would NOT do, just purely use the TA Investment Rules he shared in his 2 books.

He also commented that people who practises Positive Thinking are mentally illed or Crazy. I find that Hu thinks he is Right on everything, and seems to cannot distinguish between Facts and Opinion. On the other hand, I cannot find any successful person who do NOT practise Positive Thinking.

He shared what he learned from some of his clients, who are Great Investors in his opinion, but what he shared was basically 2 clients who do the following:

1. one client would buy when nobody wants/interested to buy stocks. Well, this is just Be Greedy when Others are Fearful.

2. another client would buy stocks by 3 batches of 1/3 each. I shared something similarly, in fact, my strategy would be safer, as I share the concept of "Pyramiding your Investment dollars", instead of investing equal amounts over 3 times, you actually invest less and less as the stock prices go higher (just like a pyramid).

Other than these 2 clients, he didn't share any other examples of Investing, most of his other stuff are Rules (I already share 3 examples he quoted which are NOT 100% True all the time). For a Rule to be a Rule, it must work 100% of the time, NOT just some of the times.

He shared that Gold move by 20% movement. Wonder did he back test this as gold price went up from US$35 in 1971 to US$850 in 1980 and went up from about US$250 in 1999 to now about US$1,800 in year 2011.

He seems to suggest that Gold prices are too high now, and likely to Crash, similar to it Crashing in 1980 after going up for 10 years, and this round, Gold prices have gone up for 11 years from 1999 to now.

Note: he didn't understand why Gold prices Crash then? It was a case when interest rates in U.S was raised to 20% which lured people to sell Gold and buy Stocks that pay dividends. While in year 2011, U.S interest rates are at historical low and people are worried about Inflation and US$ falling.

You see, it does make sense to learn about how economy, interest rates and inflation works, and NOT just 100% looking at Charts alone.

He also forgot that US$850 in 1980 was 31 years ago, to factor in inflation in last 31 years, Gold prices today should be about US$2,125, so is US$1,800 gold price a Bubble? Personally, I won't sell Gold unless and until its 50 Day MA cut below 200 day MA. (meaning uptrend reverses to downtrend). As I mentioned many times, I don't need to guess where the markets will move, becos the Markets will tell us where they want to go.

I managed to buy gold at US$800 and hold until now, making over 100% gains, this is possible becos I use both FA and TA, and would not just take profits after making 20% gains.

Hu Liyang did NOT mention anything about Silver. Looks like he only focuses on Gold, which is what the general media talks about.

Of course, you would know that for the last 2 years, I kept saying that it is better to buy Silver than Gold. Silver went up from US$14 in Aug 2009 to now US$40, or up 185%, went up much, much more than Gold prices which went up from US$1,000 to US$1,800 in the same time period, or 80% up.

He is very entertaining and knows how to play to the crowd, I really didn't learn much from his talks, other than him using many, many occasions to keep reminding you how good he is and he wants you to treat him like God as he shared once at a seminar, that it was so crowded he could NOT get to the stage and he was basically carried by people over their shoulders to place him on the stage.

I'm just sharing my opinion of him after listening to him for over 3 hours (first time I listened to him. I went to attend his talk with an Empty Cup Mindset, to learn all that I can from him), but I went away quite disappointed as I felt he is too proud of himself.

It is definitely ok for anyone to have a different opinion of him.

[ein55]

Just a small correction, his prediction is not exactly "on" 15 Nov 2011, but "after" 15 Nov 2011, esp during winter, over a period of Nov-Jan. Currently there is a short term uptrend over the past few weeks, but not sure how long it can last, if STI is below the last low in Oct 2011, around 2500+, then Hu Liyang has failed.

At first I thought he is using his "6 month pessimism" theory to estimate 6 months from May 2011 (starting of Euro crisis) for next rally, which is Nov 2011. To apply this theory, I think we should start 6 months from Oct 2011 (lowest point) when most people are pessimistic, because there is still mixed views before that on market trend.

Later, I found out his real thinking process:

QE2 started in Nov 2010, he thinks the effect of QE usually needs about 6-12 months to see the effect, from printing of money, lending of money by company, to production of goods, finally improving the GDP and economy, which gives confidence to stock market. The process was somehow delayed due to the unexpected Middle East/Euro debt/US credit crisis. His biggest prediction is 2012 is a bullish year for US economy, partly to support US presidential election. If US GDP does not improve in 2012, Hu Liyang has failed.

So, to be fair to him, we should give him another 2 more months to observe the weekly stock market trend, and another 6 months to observe US GDP.

Hi

Hu Li Yang mentioned share market will be GREAT on 15th Nov 2011.

Anything GREAT happening TODAY???

[Dennis Ng]

Hi ein55,

He specifically mentioned 15 Nov 2011. I'm sure anyone else attended can verify this.

No investor can be correct 100% all the times. Anyone who claims he is 100% correct all the times is obviously NOT telling the Truth. I have little respect for such persons, no matter how knowledgeable he can be.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

Hi

Hu Li Yang mentioned share market will be GREAT on 15th Nov 2011.

Anything GREAT happening TODAY???

Just a small correction, his prediction is not exactly "on" 15 Nov 2011, but "after" 15 Nov 2011, esp during winter, over a period of Nov-Jan. Currently there is a short term uptrend over the past few weeks, but not sure how long it can last, if STI is below the last low in Oct 2011, around 2500+, then Hu Liyang has failed.

At first I thought he is using his "6 month pessimism" theory to estimate 6 months from May 2011 (starting of Euro crisis) for next rally, which is Nov 2011. To apply this theory, I think we should start 6 months from Oct 2011 (lowest point) when most people are pessimistic, because there is still mixed views before that on market trend.

Later, I found out his real thinking process:

QE2 started in Nov 2010, he thinks the effect of QE usually needs about 6-12 months to see the effect, from printing of money, lending of money by company, to production of goods, finally improving the GDP and economy, which gives confidence to stock market. The process was somehow delayed due to the unexpected Middle East/Euro debt/US credit crisis. His biggest prediction is 2012 is a bullish year for US economy, partly to support US presidential election. If US GDP does not improve in 2012, Hu Liyang has failed.

So, to be fair to him, we should give him another 2 more months to observe the weekly stock market trend, and another 6 months to observe US GDP.

Hi

Hu Li Yang mentioned share market will be GREAT on 15th Nov 2011.

Anything GREAT happening TODAY???

[Dennis Ng]

Mr Hu Li Yang's words ring in my ears:

1. do you want to make money? Just follow Hu Li Yang to make money.
2. Stock market will rise from 15 Nov 2011, remember this date.
3. I, Hu Li Yang, is even better than Warren Buffett!
4. my track record is 100% correct all the time.

Friday 18 Nov 2011 market closed: Markets have been falling since 15 Nov 2011, NOT up.

Shanghai closed at 2,416, compared to 2,529.76 points on 15 Nov 2011, down 4.5%.

STI closed at 2,730.34, compared to 2,830.14 points on 15 Nov 2011, down 3.5%.

Hong Kong closed at 18,491.23, compared to 19,508.18 on 15 Nov 2011, down 5.2%.

If next time you listen to his talk and if he claims that his track record is 100% correct, you would know whether that is true.

Nobody can be 100% correct all the times. Anyone who claims so is simply NOT telling the Truth. And I have little respect for such persons no matter how knowledgeable he/she can be.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

Hi

Hu Li Yang mentioned share market will be GREAT on 15th Nov 2011.

Anything GREAT happening TODAY???

Hu Li Yang says stock markets would start rising on 15 Nov 2011.

At the close of trading for Asian markets on 15 Nov 2011:

Most markets are down, except Shanghai, is up 1.05 points (0.04%), closing at 2,529.76

STI is down 18.56 (0.66%), closing at 2,811.58
Hang Seng is down 159.74 (0.82%), closing at 19,348.44.

Guess Mr Hu finally is NOT 100% correct. Actually, some of my seminar graduates told me that he was wrong before as well, just that he still insist his record is 100% correct all the times.

No one is 100% correct all the times, not even Warren Buffett. But of course, I forgot that Mr Hu mentioned that he is better than Warren Buffett in the seminar in Sep 2011 in Singapore.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

18 Sep 2011

Hi all,

And his simple message to audience seems to be: just follow Hu Li Yang and you cannot be wrong.

Note: while by now you know the No. 1 question I ask myself is:"What if I'm wrong, will I be financially ok?"

To be overly confident can lead to disastrous consequences. Just share one real life example, in year 2009, Mr Oei Hong Leong was very confident of himself, in the end it led to the biggest Investment Loss of his life, losing over S$1 billion to CITIGROUP. This was well publicized in newspapers.

Mr Hu needs to understand that many in the audience will blindly follow him, so if he is wrong, he might also cause many people to lose alot of money, especially those who believe that Hu Liyang is 100% right all the times.

He also said that when it comes to understanding stocks, he is even better than Warren Buffett. (yes, he actually said that).
.

[ry9918]

Hi All

Just wonder anyone in this forum went for the Hu Li Yang seminar this weekend? Would appreciate if there a write out on his talk. Thanks.

[obokchuan]

dear all:
dow up more than 400 pts a lot of good news. US economy is not too bad

[Dennis Ng]

dear all:
dow up more than 400 pts a lot of good news. US economy is not too bad

well, on 28 Nov 2011, I already shared that a rally in stock markets is likely to come. And I took profits on 5/6 of my earlier shorts as the markets had been down for consecutive 9 days and poised for rebound even without any good news.

Yesterday, after 6 central banks announced injecting liquidity again I mentioned stocks, commodities likely to go up. And yesterday, I went in to buy some silver at US$32.37.

Silver prices still below 200 day MA, but likely to move above soon.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

30 Nov 2011

with this happening, gold and silver prices likely to go up becos value of currencies, including U.S. Dollar are going down.

Once again, the world politicians are trying to kick the can further down the road. (their objective is to make sure that things do not unravel before they step down from power, Obama included).

However, the problem with this strategy (kicking can down the road) is that all roads come to an end.

And in my opinion, the end of the Road is sometime in year 2012, and possibly by Jun 2012. So there might be a last rally in stocks before the Unavoidable Crash and the unavoidable Global Financial Crisis.


Cheers!

Dennis Ng


from National Inflation Association http://inflation.us

30 Nov 2011

The Federal Reserve along with the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank are all lowering their U.S. dollar swap rates by 50 basis points! This is going to create massive worldwide monetary inflation and flood the world with U.S. dollars!

The Fed claims that these coordinated actions will enhance their capacity to provide liquidity support to the global financial system in order to "ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity."

It was also announced this morning that arrangements have been made to establish temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements so that liquidity can be provided in each jurisdiction in any of their currencies should market conditions so warrant. Although the Fed said, "there is no need to offer liquidity in non-domestic currencies other than the U.S. dollar" at this time, the stage is now set to create massive worldwide monetary inflation in other fiat currencies as well. The whole entire global fiat currency system could soon come to an end. The only solution to the upcoming hyperinflationary crisis will be a global digital gold backed currency.

NIA believes China will soon announce that they have dramatically increased their gold holdings to backup their rapidly growing foreign currency reserves, which have now reached $3.2 trillion. China's central bank just announced this morning that they are lowering their reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points to 21% from 21.5%!

28 Nov 2011

With Europe's situation looking precarious, looks like U.S. likely to push for QE3, they can call it any name they want, but any Monetary Easing is "Printing money" and serves the same purpose of injecting liquidity...

This can happen as soon as in Jan 2012...(in my opinion)...

When that happens, stock markets might have a last Significant Rebound (still likely to be a Bear Market Rally if the 50 day MA does NOT cut 200 day MA upwards in the rebound, before the Ultimate Crash in year 2012...

This situation is quite similar to what I expected in early 2011, just that STI is unlikely to make a new high, above 3,900, and may be unlikely to even exceed the high of 3,313 in Nov 2010 in this last Rally.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-2 ... asing.html

Dealers See Fed Buying $545B Mortgage Bonds

Dealers See Fed Buying $545B Mortgage Bonds
By Daniel Kruger and Cordell Eddings -


The biggest bond dealers in the U.S. say the Federal Reserve is poised to start a new round of stimulus, injecting more money into the economy by purchasing mortgage securities instead of Treasuries.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his fellow policy makers, who bought $2.3 trillion of Treasury and mortgage-related bonds between 2008 and June, will start another program next quarter, 16 of the 21 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade with the central bank said in a Bloomberg News survey last week. The Fed may buy about $545 billion in home-loan debt, based on the median of the 10 firms that provided estimates.

The company forecasts the Fed will buy $800 billion of securities, which may include Treasuries.

Efforts to bolster the economy are taking on new urgency with $1.2 trillion in automatic government spending cuts slated to begin in 2013. The Commerce Department said last week that gross domestic product expanded at a 2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, less than the 2.5 percent it originally projected, and Europe’s worsening debt crisis threatens to further curb global growth.

The Fed is taking the view that “even if U.S. fundamentals look to be relatively okay, we’ve got to keep our eye on any contagion from the European stresses,” Dominic Konstam, head of interest-rate strategy at primary dealer Deutsche Bank AG in New York, said in a Nov. 22 telephone interview. “It’s in that context that they’re willing to do more.”

Policy makers have scope to print more money to buy bonds in a third round of quantitative easing, or QE, as the outlook for inflation eases.

“There is a significant chance that QE3 will be deployed, especially in the form of MBS purchases, if inflation expectations fall enough,” Srini Ramaswamy and other debt strategists at JPMorgan in New York wrote in a Nov. 25 report.

“The prospect of the Fed buying MBS under a QE3 program is a powerful wildcard, and should limit the downside in the asset class,” the JPMorgan strategists wrote in their report last week. “Given attractive spreads currently, we recommend heading into 2012 with an overweight,” they said in reference to a strategy where investors own a greater percentage of a security or asset class than is contained in benchmark indexes.

[Dennis Ng]

Mr Hu Li Yang's words ring in my ears:

1. do you want to make money? Just follow Hu Li Yang to make money.
2. Stock market will rise from 15 Nov 2011, remember this date.
3. I, Hu Li Yang, is even better than Warren Buffett!
4. my track record is 100% correct all the time.

Markets have been falling since 15 Nov 2011, NOT up. On 15 Dec 2011, (11.15 am):

Shanghai 2,187, compared to 2,529.76 points on 15 Nov 2011, down 13.5%.

STI at 2,637, compared to 2,830.14 points on 15 Nov 2011, down 7%.

Hong Kong closed at 17,989, compared to 19,508.18 on 15 Nov 2011, down 7.7%.

Mr Hu Li Yang's words ring in my ears:

1. do you want to make money? Just follow Hu Li Yang to make money.
2. Stock market will rise from 15 Nov 2011, remember this date.
3. I, Hu Li Yang, is even better than Warren Buffett!
4. my track record is 100% correct all the time.

Friday 18 Nov 2011 market closed: Markets have been falling since 15 Nov 2011, NOT up.

Shanghai closed at 2,416, compared to 2,529.76 points on 15 Nov 2011, down 4.5%.

STI closed at 2,730.34, compared to 2,830.14 points on 15 Nov 2011, down 3.5%.

Hong Kong closed at 18,491.23, compared to 19,508.18 on 15 Nov 2011, down 5.2%.

If next time you listen to his talk and if he claims that his track record is 100% correct, you would know whether that is true.

Nobody can be 100% correct all the times. Anyone who claims so is simply NOT telling the Truth. And I have little respect for such persons no matter how knowledgeable he/she can be.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

[obokchuan]

胡立阳：欧债风暴仅是金融海啸的余震 2011.12.20阅读(1.29万)下一篇：胡立阳:明年全球... |返回日志列表 赞(24)赞(24)赞(24)赞(24)转载(174)分享(48)评论复制地址更多

2011年12月20日16:06 腾讯财经

[导读]这波全球股市的拉回，只不过是2008年出现大崩盘之后的余震且渐近尾声。如果不明究里的认为是另一个大地震来了，恐慌之下只怕又要再一次重蹈三年前的覆辙 §§

先是担心通胀，接着又害怕衰退。这半年来，全球投资者的恐惧，充份反映在跌跌不休的股市上。尤其是，至目前为止，大家仍对欧债问题感到不安，认为这个在2011年第三季新蹦出来的 金融 危机，可能会比2008年的金融海啸更为可怕。只要大家一致如此认同，股市严重缺乏信心，不跌也难。究竟，在即将迎接2012年之际，欧债问题还会引发新一波前所未见的金融风暴吗？

我一直以为，在历经了“雷声大、雨点小”的金融海啸之后，投资者应该领悟到2008年全球股市大崩盘与过去并不一样。它的形成并非是由经济发展过盛,接着再由盛转衰的可怕循环所造成的，但由于大家不了解而造成的紧张，形成了心理面大于实质面的暴跌，通常会是“来得快,去得快”。这项论点，在全球股市由2008年底就出现戏剧性的大翻身，而且接下来还维持了长达二年半的多头 行情 就得到了充分的证明。

还记得我在2008年时曾提出“小心！假通胀会造成真衰退”的论点吗？

2008年的上半年,全世界都正随着油价的高低起伏而感到心情七上八下。当时，最怕听到的名词就是“通货膨胀的时代恐将来临”。但我就曾不断提醒大家，小心“假通胀”会造成“真衰退”！

原因是，过去的十年，全球经济的景气，其实有如一滩止水，而且绝大多的数人，薪水都没有增加。工资没涨，但股价、房价却节节飙升，原物料、 大宗商品 以及油价更是个个涨翻天。

处在这样了无生气的环境下居然还能蹦出了“通货膨胀”，这不是很奇怪吗？我进入华尔街至今，还从没见过类似的现象。

让我先来告诉你，通货膨胀是怎么造成的？

根据经济学的理论，是有以下两个原因：

(1)需求拉抬(DemandPull)

(2)成本推升(CostPush)

但是，过去这些年来，各地的经济发展并没有看到这样的现象。于是我发现造成这波通货膨胀其实是有第三个新的原因──资金无处可去之下的集体炒作！

为什么会出现炒作的行为呢？因为过去这十年，全球景气一直冷飕飕的，大都处在低利率状态，大家觉得把钱存在 银行 里毫无赚头，只得寻求其他的投资途径。

从欧美开始，脑筋动得快的金融圈嗅到了商机，立即大量吸收游资，抢进股市、房市以及外围金融商品。一下子，各种私募的、公募的 基金 ，合法的、公开的、地下的、私底下的资产管理、代客操作，都如雨后春笋般的冒了出来。

终于，冬眠了一段时间的一些“投资银行家”又醒过来了。过去由于不景气，他们推出的传统商品总是乏人问津。现在，为了争食大饼，铤而走险的拼凑出各种光怪陆离，例如次级房贷之类的“衍生性金融商品”。这些看起来漂漂亮亮的商品，很多根本就是裹着糖衣的毒药。

泛滥的资金加上诱人的金融商品，全民参与的金钱游戏就从2003年起如火如荼的由欧美开始蔓延。

连续几年，地球的上方，每天都有数以兆计的 美元 ，像遨翔空中的秃鹰在寻找猎物。所以，全球各地一些没有实质GDP支撑的股市转眼间翻上几番，毫不起眼的房市也跟着飙个三倍、五倍也就不难让人理解了。

2007年10月发生的次贷风波，第一次暴露出投机气氛已经达到沸腾，但是并没有为投机者带来丝毫警惕，炒作的资金只不过是转移了目标，转向了石油及大宗商品。

于是，热钱过境，石油在2008年元月冲上每桶100美元之后仍然高烧不退。但是，大家都知道，高油价会引发通货膨胀，终于，全世界开始紧张起来。

显然，这个在苦哈哈的经济环境下所逼出来的通胀，是由“假性需求”所造成。它与过去大家因为有钱挥霍所引发的传统通胀完全不同，因此我称它为“假通胀”！

“假通胀”纯由资金炒作而成，并没有生产过盛的实质问题，原本只会是虚惊一场。但很遗憾，一般民众完全不了解这个道理。由于害怕，马上就会想紧缩 消费 ，这么一来，就非常有可能出现我所担心的“真衰退”了！

在了解2008金融海啸的闹剧始末之后，就不难发现，2011年发生的欧债危机只是过去十年，金钱炒作的恶果仍在余波荡漾，我称它为金融海啸主震后产生的余震。

以最近引发欧债危机的希腊为例，再次暴露出华尔街“投资银行家”巧妙运用衍生性金融商品的包装，掩盖了希腊过去积弊十年的债务，拖到最近才终于现出了原形。而随后欧债出现的骨牌效应，也是冰冻三尺非一日之寒，现在都已经证明，就是长期投机炒作，所累积而成的后遗症。

结论是，欧债危机并不是新品种的麻烦，它与金融风暴系出同源，都是由低利率所引出的泛滥资金惹出的事端。所幸，历史纪录显示，没有严重的真通胀在先，就不会有随后类似美国1929~1933年可怕的大萧条发生，大家一定要先有这个概念，才能冷静下来思考。

这波全球股市的拉回，只不过是2008年出现大崩盘之后的余震且渐近尾声。如果不明究里的认为是另一个大地震来了，恐慌之下只怕又要再一次重蹈三年前的覆辙，不但造成无可弥补的财务损失，也为那些能冷静应对的人创造了财富重分配的机会。

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主人的热评日志 股市中值得学习的响尾蛇战术2011-11-01 15:56胡立阳：年底行情11月启动 现在入市要谨慎2011-09-07 01:04胡立阳: 美股涨一倍卖压,台股呈现放暑假行情2011-06-27 14:27胡立阳：下跌是天赐良机，跌破2750点就可以慢慢建仓2011-05-30 16:41

[Dennis Ng]

thanks obokchuan for sharing.

The Main message of Hu Li Yang is we are now near the end of Troubles, it is likely to be bright days ahead, instead of possibility of another earthquake (Global Financial Crisis).

So Mr Hu Li Yang does NOT see a Global Financial Crisis coming, and think now is time to bargain hunt, and those who miss the chance, will only regret in future.

Let's wait and see whether this will come true.

Similarly, in Sep, when conducting talk in Singapore, he said that stock markets low and one should be buying and that from 15 Nov 2011 onwards, stock markets would move up (especially China, Singapore, specific markets he mentioned), those who missed the chance to buy would regret...

Compared to 15 Nov, overall, the global stock markets especially China and Singapore are LOWER, not higher.

He had been wrong before however, he seems to have full confidence that he'll be right that there'll NO Global Financial Crisis coming.

Unlike him, I always prepare myself for the possibility that I'm wrong. I ask myself:"What if I'm wrong, will I be financially ok?"

If a Global Financial Crisis does NOT come (as Mr Hu Li Yang predicted), the worst case for me is I make less money, becos I would only be buying stocks when stock markets confirmed uptrend (Dow goes above 12,400 or about 100 points above current levels). I would definitely be financially ok.

Conversely, if people listen to Mr Hu Li Yang and confidently invest all their money NOW to Bargain Hunt and a Global Financial Crisis hits, would they be ok? I'm NOT sure.

I hope Mr Hu Li Yang is mindful and aware of the risk of people blindly listening to him and might suffer big losses becos of that. Those who had followed him blindly already experienced losses after listening to his talk in Singapore earlier.

So I'm aghasted that he again is confidently predicting scenarios without warning that he might be wrong. This is something unacceptable to me for a person who knows his public responsibility of his words.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng


结论是，欧债危机并不是新品种的麻烦，它与金融风暴系出同源，都是由低利率所引出的泛滥资金惹出的事端。所幸，历史纪录显示，没有严重的真通胀在先，就不会有随后类似美国1929~1933年可怕的大萧条发生，大家一定要先有这个概念，才能冷静下来思考。

这波全球股市的拉回，只不过是2008年出现大崩盘之后的余震且渐近尾声。如果不明究里的认为是另一个大地震来了，恐慌之下只怕又要再一次重蹈三年前的覆辙

胡立阳：欧债风暴仅是金融海啸的余震 2011.12.20阅读(1.29万)下一篇：胡立阳:明年全球... |返回日志列表 赞(24)赞(24)赞(24)赞(24)转载(174)分享(48)评论复制地址更多

2011年12月20日16:06 腾讯财经

[导读]这波全球股市的拉回，只不过是2008年出现大崩盘之后的余震且渐近尾声。如果不明究里的认为是另一个大地震来了，恐慌之下只怕又要再一次重蹈三年前的覆辙 §§

先是担心通胀，接着又害怕衰退。这半年来，全球投资者的恐惧，充份反映在跌跌不休的股市上。尤其是，至目前为止，大家仍对欧债问题感到不安，认为这个在2011年第三季新蹦出来的 金融 危机，可能会比2008年的金融海啸更为可怕。只要大家一致如此认同，股市严重缺乏信心，不跌也难。究竟，在即将迎接2012年之际，欧债问题还会引发新一波前所未见的金融风暴吗？

我一直以为，在历经了“雷声大、雨点小”的金融海啸之后，投资者应该领悟到2008年全球股市大崩盘与过去并不一样。它的形成并非是由经济发展过盛,接着再由盛转衰的可怕循环所造成的，但由于大家不了解而造成的紧张，形成了心理面大于实质面的暴跌，通常会是“来得快,去得快”。这项论点，在全球股市由2008年底就出现戏剧性的大翻身，而且接下来还维持了长达二年半的多头 行情 就得到了充分的证明。

还记得我在2008年时曾提出“小心！假通胀会造成真衰退”的论点吗？

2008年的上半年,全世界都正随着油价的高低起伏而感到心情七上八下。当时，最怕听到的名词就是“通货膨胀的时代恐将来临”。但我就曾不断提醒大家，小心“假通胀”会造成“真衰退”！

原因是，过去的十年，全球经济的景气，其实有如一滩止水，而且绝大多的数人，薪水都没有增加。工资没涨，但股价、房价却节节飙升，原物料、 大宗商品 以及油价更是个个涨翻天。

处在这样了无生气的环境下居然还能蹦出了“通货膨胀”，这不是很奇怪吗？我进入华尔街至今，还从没见过类似的现象。

让我先来告诉你，通货膨胀是怎么造成的？

根据经济学的理论，是有以下两个原因：

(1)需求拉抬(DemandPull)

(2)成本推升(CostPush)

但是，过去这些年来，各地的经济发展并没有看到这样的现象。于是我发现造成这波通货膨胀其实是有第三个新的原因──资金无处可去之下的集体炒作！

为什么会出现炒作的行为呢？因为过去这十年，全球景气一直冷飕飕的，大都处在低利率状态，大家觉得把钱存在 银行 里毫无赚头，只得寻求其他的投资途径。

从欧美开始，脑筋动得快的金融圈嗅到了商机，立即大量吸收游资，抢进股市、房市以及外围金融商品。一下子，各种私募的、公募的 基金 ，合法的、公开的、地下的、私底下的资产管理、代客操作，都如雨后春笋般的冒了出来。

终于，冬眠了一段时间的一些“投资银行家”又醒过来了。过去由于不景气，他们推出的传统商品总是乏人问津。现在，为了争食大饼，铤而走险的拼凑出各种光怪陆离，例如次级房贷之类的“衍生性金融商品”。这些看起来漂漂亮亮的商品，很多根本就是裹着糖衣的毒药。

泛滥的资金加上诱人的金融商品，全民参与的金钱游戏就从2003年起如火如荼的由欧美开始蔓延。

连续几年，地球的上方，每天都有数以兆计的 美元 ，像遨翔空中的秃鹰在寻找猎物。所以，全球各地一些没有实质GDP支撑的股市转眼间翻上几番，毫不起眼的房市也跟着飙个三倍、五倍也就不难让人理解了。

2007年10月发生的次贷风波，第一次暴露出投机气氛已经达到沸腾，但是并没有为投机者带来丝毫警惕，炒作的资金只不过是转移了目标，转向了石油及大宗商品。

于是，热钱过境，石油在2008年元月冲上每桶100美元之后仍然高烧不退。但是，大家都知道，高油价会引发通货膨胀，终于，全世界开始紧张起来。

显然，这个在苦哈哈的经济环境下所逼出来的通胀，是由“假性需求”所造成。它与过去大家因为有钱挥霍所引发的传统通胀完全不同，因此我称它为“假通胀”！

“假通胀”纯由资金炒作而成，并没有生产过盛的实质问题，原本只会是虚惊一场。但很遗憾，一般民众完全不了解这个道理。由于害怕，马上就会想紧缩 消费 ，这么一来，就非常有可能出现我所担心的“真衰退”了！

在了解2008金融海啸的闹剧始末之后，就不难发现，2011年发生的欧债危机只是过去十年，金钱炒作的恶果仍在余波荡漾，我称它为金融海啸主震后产生的余震。

以最近引发欧债危机的希腊为例，再次暴露出华尔街“投资银行家”巧妙运用衍生性金融商品的包装，掩盖了希腊过去积弊十年的债务，拖到最近才终于现出了原形。而随后欧债出现的骨牌效应，也是冰冻三尺非一日之寒，现在都已经证明，就是长期投机炒作，所累积而成的后遗症。


结论是，欧债危机并不是新品种的麻烦，它与金融风暴系出同源，都是由低利率所引出的泛滥资金惹出的事端。所幸，历史纪录显示，没有严重的真通胀在先，就不会有随后类似美国1929~1933年可怕的大萧条发生，大家一定要先有这个概念，才能冷静下来思考。

这波全球股市的拉回，只不过是2008年出现大崩盘之后的余震且渐近尾声。如果不明究里的认为是另一个大地震来了，恐慌之下只怕又要再一次重蹈三年前的覆辙，不但造成无可弥补的财务损失，也为那些能冷静应对的人创造了财富重分配的机会。

赞(24)赞(24)赞(24)赞(24)转载(174)分享(48)评论复制地址更多新闻报道 |原创：胡立阳 |标签：通货膨胀金融危机货币中国经济华尔街
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主人的热评日志 股市中值得学习的响尾蛇战术2011-11-01 15:56胡立阳：年底行情11月启动 现在入市要谨慎2011-09-07 01:04胡立阳: 美股涨一倍卖压,台股呈现放暑假行情2011-06-27 14:27胡立阳：下跌是天赐良机，跌破2750点就可以慢慢建仓2011-05-30 16:41

[obokchuan]

2011年11月27日09:20 腾讯财经
[导读]国际股市好不容易才摆脱八月份美国信评遭StandardandPoor’s(S&P)由AAA调降为AA+的风波，近日来，却又再度受到欧元区债务危机的连番打击，全球金融市场动荡不安，投资人更是不知所措。
§ §
国际股市好不容易才摆脱八月份美国信评遭StandardandPoor’s(S&P)由AAA调降为AA+的风波，近日来，却又再度受到 欧元 区债务危机的连番打击，全球 金融市场 动荡不安，投资人更是不知所措。
其实，早在2009年，我已发表一篇文章，大胆预测全球经济未来将一再爆发状况，掉进一个又一个的窟窿，然后再一次又一次的挣脱而出，就这般无止尽的循环。

现在，我将全文一字不改的再发一次，好让大家了解来龙去脉。

自从2008年第四季发生了 金融 海啸之后，果然是“雷声大、雨点小”，“来得快，去得快”。才不过短短的半年，全球各地就纷纷宣布，景气已经触底，各大企业也频频报出了优于预期的营收成果，这跟过去发生的大萧条哪能相比呢？

2009年中以来，一直有专家在为全球经济将是出现V型亦或是U型式的复苏争论不休，似乎对未来的经济仍怀有美丽的憧憬，但我却认为绝非如此！为什么呢？想知道答案，就必须先回到金融海啸前，甚至更往前推，回到七、八年前的起始点。

在那段期间，欧 美的 股市与房市虽出现了倍数的成长，但那其实只是虚胖而已，主要只是那些不满足于低利率而窜逃出来的游资所吹出来的大泡泡。

为什么会存在低利率的现象？那就是反应出产业需求低迷，因为经济已经长期陷于不冷不热、不死不活的窘况。

因此，大家现在寄望的经济复苏，顶多不过是先回到过去一滩止水的原地而已。哪有可能出现一飞冲天式的V型或是U型的反转呢？

如果用图型来说明，我认为用“窟窿”型来表达最为恰当了！怎么说呢？就像是在一个有如一滩止水的经济平面上，陆续的出现了因少数不良衍生性金融商品所引起的次贷风波、炒高油价所引发的衰退、雷曼倒闭所导致的金融风暴、冰岛破产、杜拜债务事件、希腊债务事件……一个又一个、大大小小的窟窿，而经济虽然逃过了大劫，但仍不得不一次又一次的从这些窟窿中挣扎出来，然后再次掉入新的窟窿，就这样无止尽的循环！

我想要说，别奢望全球景气能在一夕之间由丑小鸭变成白 天鹅 ，它没有这种神奇的魔力。

美国带头实行低利率政策，原本是为提振生产、刺激景气。但目前全球利率似乎像是一起睡着了般的毫无动静，说明了经济发展仍然乏善可陈，企业普遍不急着扩充生产设备，因此，想要见到真正的繁荣，未来还有漫长且崎岖的路要走。

好的，可以下一个简单的结论了！

美国甚至全球主要股市、房市自谷底反弹以来，已经涨得太急、太猛，才不过短短的一年，我又嗅到了炒作的味道，被超低利率逼得到处流窜的热钱，似乎又要开始兴风作浪了！

未来，我们还要注意观察因资金泛滥所造成的假性通胀，是否会卷土重来？倘若成真，投资人对于油价、原物料以及 大宗商品 价格旧戏重演的再次飙升，最好先要有心理准备！

环顾当前情势，证明我在2、3年前的判断完全正确。重点是，我现在的看法仍是丝毫未变，认为2012年全球经济复苏之路，依然会是颠簸难行，一路上还要遇上大大小小的窟窿来不断挑战地球人的耐心与解决问题的能力。此刻，我们也只能以平静的心来面对吧!

[Dennis Ng]

On Hu Liyang
His bravery and foresightedness are worth some respect. Although he got the start of the bull run date wrong, however, he is astonishing analytical and brave enough to declare that the bull is coming when majority are still singing 'London bridge' is falling down.

I am still learning and do not have any achievement to shout about. I always remind myself, how it is possible for me to be financial ok if I am wrong so many times???

tks

Hi shazamanick,
well, let me share what Hu Liyang says and maybe you re-think. I USED to have High Respect for him until I heard him speak at a seminar in Sep 2011 when he said the following:

Hu Li Yang in Sep 2011 says:
1. I'm better than Warren Buffett, even Warren Buffett cannot be compared to me.
2. Ladies and Gentleman, I'm 100% correct, to make money from stocks, just follow me. That's how you make money.

P.S Nobody is 100% correct, so he is definitely NOT telling the truth when he says that.

3. 15 Nov 2011, remember this date, stock markets will rise on this date. Remember this date.

P.S. Nobody can know exact timing, except God. So either he is God or he is ???

You can be wrong more often than you're right and still become Richer. Unbelieveable to you?

By using the Upside at least double Downside rule, you can be wrong 6 out of 10 times and still become Richer. Is this NOT clear to you?

[ngtfook]

Just to share what HU Li Yang said about Nov 15 2011.
He mention after Nov 15, the stock markets will rise.

See link here, 2nd paragraph

http://huliyang.qzone.qq.com/#!app=2&pos=1315328699

On Hu Liyang
His bravery and foresightedness are worth some respect. Although he got the start of the bull run date wrong, however, he is astonishing analytical and brave enough to declare that the bull is coming when majority are still singing 'London bridge' is falling down.

I am still learning and do not have any achievement to shout about. I always remind myself, how it is possible for me to be financial ok if I am wrong so many times???

tks

Hi shazamanick,
well, let me share what Hu Liyang says and maybe you re-think. I USED to have High Respect for him until I heard him speak at a seminar in Sep 2011 when he said the following:

Hu Li Yang in Sep 2011 says:
1. I'm better than Warren Buffett, even Warren Buffett cannot be compared to me.
2. Ladies and Gentleman, I'm 100% correct, to make money from stocks, just follow me. That's how you make money.

P.S Nobody is 100% correct, so he is definitely NOT telling the truth when he says that.

3. 15 Nov 2011, remember this date, stock markets will rise on this date. Remember this date.

P.S. Nobody can know exact timing, except God. So either he is God or he is ???

You can be wrong more often than you're right and still become Richer. Unbelieveable to you?

By using the Upside at least double Downside rule, you can be wrong 6 out of 10 times and still become Richer. Is this NOT clear to you?