Jim Rogers "Quite Sure" Gold Will Hit $2000

[alvin]

Extracted from Yahoo! Finance:

Famed investor Jim Rogers is "quite sure gold will go over $2000 per ounce during this bull market."

Rogers' confidence gold will continue to rally stems from a view the U.S. dollar is on its way to losing status as the world's reserve currency.

"Is it going to happen? Yes," Rogers says. "I don't like saying it [and] I'm extremely worried about it but we have to deal with the facts. America is not getting better [and] the dollar is going to be replaced just like pound sterling [was]."

Rogers didn't offer a timetable, and it's likely gold would exceed $2000 per ounce if the dollar were to lose its reserve status.

Still, "I wouldn't buy gold today," Rogers says. "I think I'll make more money in other commodities, which are cheaper," as discussed in more detail here.

Among many others, Rogers is "worried about the fact the U.S. government is printing huge amounts, spending gigantic amounts of money it doesn't have," the investor and author says. "People are very worried [and] skeptical about paper money [and] looking for places to protect themselves. The best way is to buy real assets. [That] has always protected one during currency turmoil, and it will again."

[Dennis Ng]

Extracted from Yahoo! Finance:

Famed investor Jim Rogers is "quite sure gold will go over $2000 per ounce during this bull market."

Rogers' confidence gold will continue to rally stems from a view the U.S. dollar is on its way to losing status as the world's reserve currency.

"Is it going to happen? Yes," Rogers says. "I don't like saying it [and] I'm extremely worried about it but we have to deal with the facts. America is not getting better [and] the dollar is going to be replaced just like pound sterling [was]."

Rogers didn't offer a timetable, and it's likely gold would exceed $2000 per ounce if the dollar were to lose its reserve status.

Still, "I wouldn't buy gold today," Rogers says. "I think I'll make more money in other commodities, which are cheaper," as discussed in more detail here.

Among many others, Rogers is "worried about the fact the U.S. government is printing huge amounts, spending gigantic amounts of money it doesn't have," the investor and author says. "People are very worried [and] skeptical about paper money [and] looking for places to protect themselves. The best way is to buy real assets. [That] has always protected one during currency turmoil, and it will again."

From Technical Analysis, Gold prices successfully break through US$1,000 on the 3rd attempts. Before this, each time Gold prices broke US$1,000 (first time in year 2007 and 2nd time early this year), both times the price dropped to about US$950 shortly thereafter.

This time round Gold Prices have held on above US$1,000....from TA, the next level is US$1,150, then US$1,300, and if both broke, then US$1,500.....

US$2,000 is indeed possible. If we use the historical high of US$850 in 1980, factor in inflation, today's Gold prices (to be equivalent to US$850 in 1980), probably should be about US$2,300 instead.

Silver prices also likely to break through US$18 and possibly even the high of US$21 in year 2007....historical high of Silver was US$50 in 1980.

I have about 7% of my money in Gold and Silver, gold at average price of US$790 and Silver at US$14.

In Jan 2009, when gold price was about US$800, I said that Gold prices might hit above US$1,000 in year 2009, some people in other internet forum disbelieved and laughed at that view. Actually, it is ok to have different opinion, no need to laugh when one disagrees.

[FunkyPeach]

As US$ falls, gold price rises. While there's this possibility of gold hitting US$2,000, here in SG, we are buying gold in US$.

This is the part which I'm not sure :-
Today, when gold is ranging slightly above $1,000. US$ : S$ is at about $1.30-$1.40. But, when gold goes above $2,000. US$:S$ rates is likely to be ridiculously low. So, for us in SG, does it still make sense then ?

[alvin]

Hi FunkyPeach, it is true that there is a relationship between US$ and Gold prices. Gold price rises due to increased demand. It can hardly be a shortage of supply because gold cannot be "destroyed". It is converted from one form to another (e.g. jewellery), and you can always melt it and make gold again. Hence, the world gold supply keeps growing. The demand usually surges when currency devalues greatly because people do not want to hold on to something that loses value fast, so they switch their money for gold to protect their capital.

That being said, US$ drops, gold price rises is only one of the many factors that influences gold price. People can still switch to stronger currency to retain the value of their money. However, if there is a worldwide inflation, rise in consumable commodities prices (oil, agriculture), which happened during 1970s as well as a brief run in 2007, no currency will be able to retain their value, and demand for gold surges.

To answer your question, in my opinion, I would say gold hitting US$2k (if it ever) is not likely to come solely from a devaluation in US$, oil price will play a much bigger role in it.

[FunkyPeach]

Thanks for the reply, Alvin.

Would that also mean that there is a possibility of gold prices increasing faster than currency drop ?

In the singapore exchange, except for STI ETF, all other ETF are also in US$ (I stand to be corrected). While I would like to buy look into purchase of ETFs, by the same extent, I have been wondering if the drop in US$ would make these ETF less attractive to the local investor. Meaning to say : ETF will have to increase faster than US$'s drop.

[alvin]

you are right that most ETFs are in USD. This is because they are cross listed from US stock exchanges.

There are bound to be exchange risk if it is denominated in a foreign currency. It is true that the ETF must perform better to cover a drop in USD. It is also true that if USD gains against SGD, you will profit even more. Hence, I feel it should not be a major deciding factor whether to invest in a ETF denominated in USD. If you have a well diversified portfolio, it should not be a problem.

[Dennis Ng]

US$ movement is NOT the only factor that affects Gold Prices. In 2002, Gold price was as low as US$300, In year 2009, Gold prices is now over US$1,000. US$ didn't drop by 70% for Gold Price to rise by 233%...

[ahvyee]

Found this information from Jim Rogers blog and I would like to share with you all.

Jim Rogers' Keys to Success (taken from the titles and sub headings of each chapter of the new book, "A Gift To My Children"):

1. Do not let others do your thinking for you

2. Focus on what you like

3. Good habits for life & investing

4. Common sense? not so common

5. Attention to details is what separates success from failure

6. Let the world be a part of your perspective

7. Learn philosophy & learn to think

8. Learn history

9. Learn languages (make sure Mandarin is one of them)

10. Understand your weaknesses & acknowledge your mistakes

11. Recognize change & embrace it

12. Look to the future

13. “Lady Luck smiles on those who continue their efforts”

14. Remember that nothing is really new

15. Know when not to do anything

16. Pay attention to what everybody else neglects

17. If anybody laughs at your idea view it as a sign of potential success


Favorite Quotes:

“Anything that is a must see, must try, must read, should almost certainly be avoided, especially if it is popular.”

“Never act upon wishful thinking. Act without checking the facts, and chances are that you will be swept away along with the mob.”

“Learn to stay calm especially in times of pressure or turmoil. You will make much better decisions.”

“Do not get married until you are at least 28 and know a bit more about yourself and the world.”

“Lean to do as much arithmetic and figures as possible in your head.”

[Dennis Ng]

Found this information from Jim Rogers blog and I would like to share with you all.

Jim Rogers' Keys to Success (taken from the titles and sub headings of each chapter of the new book, "A Gift To My Children"):

1. Do not let others do your thinking for you

2. Focus on what you like

3. Good habits for life & investing

4. Common sense? not so common

5. Attention to details is what separates success from failure

6. Let the world be a part of your perspective

7. Learn philosophy & learn to think

8. Learn history

9. Learn languages (make sure Mandarin is one of them)

10. Understand your weaknesses & acknowledge your mistakes

11. Recognize change & embrace it

12. Look to the future

13. “Lady Luck smiles on those who continue their efforts”

14. Remember that nothing is really new

15. Know when not to do anything

16. Pay attention to what everybody else neglects

17. If anybody laughs at your idea view it as a sign of potential success


Favorite Quotes:

“Anything that is a must see, must try, must read, should almost certainly be avoided, especially if it is popular.”

“Never act upon wishful thinking. Act without checking the facts, and chances are that you will be swept away along with the mob.”

“Learn to stay calm especially in times of pressure or turmoil. You will make much better decisions.”

“Do not get married until you are at least 28 and know a bit more about yourself and the world.”

“Lean to do as much arithmetic and figures as possible in your head.”

Hi ahvyee,

that's great. Thanks for sharing.

I encourage all Forumers to come here to share whatever information/knowledge you have.

The more you give, the more you'll receive.

I'm just a "catalyst", I started this forum upon request of some past graduates that they hope to have ways they can continue to Learn and ask questions.

So I've done my part, the ball is now in everybody's court to make best use of this Forum.

[r8n2]

Maybe my question is a bit dumm but can anybody tell me how to physically buy Silver or Gold here in Singapore? I got told this is not possible at all? If it is impossible how does one invest in Silver for example?
Sorry if I should know already.

[Dennis Ng]

Maybe my question is a bit dumm but can anybody tell me how to physically buy Silver or Gold here in Singapore? I got told this is not possible at all? If it is impossible how does one invest in Silver for example?
Sorry if I should know already.

why do you want to buy physical Silver? You need a lot of storage space for Silver becos of the low price.

I personally invest in silver through UOB Silver Saving account, minus all the hassles and additional costs.

[alvin]

Here's the link:

http://www.uob.com.sg/personal/investme ... etals.html

[wemakebread]

I can share a bit from my own experience.
But pls use it only as a guide for reference.

Gold Trading
1) Physical Gold
a) traditional Chinese/Indian Gold Shops
b) private dealers & gold traders
c) UOB (includes transactional charges & GST!)

Challenge:
Need to be able to assess purity, as it will affect resale value


2) Gold funds
a) check with UOB
b) check with Philips Securities (POEMS)
c) check with fundsupermart?

3) stocks of gold & metal mining companies

4) trading gold as a counter
a) check with IG Markets
b) check with ACM

I happen to know of these 2 because of my forex trading.
IG Markets has SG office in Chevron House & allows SGD account.

[r8n2]

This info is extremely helpful.
I will seriously follow those tracks now to find my way through.
Thank you very much.