Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

[candy_chia]

Hi Wei Teck,

Well said. Just like what Dennis always advocates.

What can we do as a responsible individual then?

- continue to invest in ourselves (learning), invest wisely, be self-reliant and help the needy/the unfortunates.

Rgds,
Wei Teck

[Dennis Ng]

Saw the following headline from Yahoo news and also heard it over TV news:

Code: Select all

"City Harvest founder Kong Hee arrested for alleged misuse of church funds"
"Pastor Kong, his deputy John Tan Ye Peng and three other key ministry members -- Lam Leng Hung, Chew Eng Han, Tan Shao Yuen Sharon -- were arrested at their homes early Tuesday morning and questioned over the alleged misuse of at least S$23 million from church funds"

The investigation started way back in May 2010 - no conclusion if the parties are at fault but obviously a lot of taxpayer money and effort from the authorities were spent.

Lets wait and see the magic work of "we are all connected"

Rgds,
Wei Teck

I just hope that the public confidence will not be shaken or think that if even the Head of a Church can be "like that", then it is ok to cheat. I feel very, very, very sad when I watched the TV News just now, after NKF (Durai); Ren Ci (Ming Yi), now you have a Pastor...

These people do not understand that "With great power, comes great responsibility"....they are in a position that people look up to, and respect...so whatever they do can have a big impact on the society.

I'm so glad to watch the TV news interview when Mr Low Swee Seh (new CEO of Tzu Chi Singapore) shares how Tzu Chi even make sure that the CEO pays for his own trips overseas....(incidentally Mr Low and Mr Sim Hee Chew (both very active volunteers at Tzu Chi) are also our seminar (sign ups), they have not found the time to attend the seminars yet as they are always overseas and busy with the voluntary work at Tzu Chi...

I hope Mr Low's sharing let the public know that there are good and selfless people around in the society.

P.S. in fact how we have the blessing to invite the former Mr David Liu, CEO of Tzu Chi (now transsferred to Tzu Chi International Operations to do even more work for the benefit of the whole world instead of just Singapore) is through the introduction and recommendation of Mr Sim and Mr Low whom I'm forever grateful to let us have the opportunity to learn from Mr David Liu before he took on his new position in Tzu Chi...

So I really hope that our Seminar Graduates' Community can be a Real Life Example of how there are People in Singapore who are selfless and Go Givers and one can get Rich on the strong foundnation of having the Right Values and Principles. All Seminar Graduates have this Great Responsibility, the Society badly needs it now with all these scandals...of course, none of us are perfect, but i urge everyone to focus on CANI - Continuous and Never-Ending Improvement.

As I said, one of the main Universal Truths that all religions teach is to be "selfless", so this is why it is so sad when the Pastor actually showed is "selfishness" instead (misuse public funds for promotion of his wife's music career). So beware of people who only talk and might not walk their talk, who only Preach but do NOT practise what they preach.

When we see others err let this be a Warning that we should NOT commit the same mistake. But let us pray for their change, that they will change their ways and be on the Right path again. Wherever Mr Durai is, I hope he learned from his lesson and now has become a better person.

[Dennis Ng]

"Choice - You Have the Power to Choose"

at the monthly meeting for Wealth Educators on 23 Jun 2012, Hendra selflessly shared with us this topic again (first time was at the Monthly Investing Mentor Sharing session, which I didn't attend). I have many "vu ja de" moments during his sharing. And even in the 10-15 mins sharing by Serene Loong after Hendra, again I have "vu ja de" moments.

Really, I find that if more and more seminar graduates come forward to share selflessly, then everyone benefit, even I learn...there is a limit how much I can share/teach, as it depends on what I already learned myself...but if everyone tries to share your knowledge/experience, then everyone benefits.

We are ALL connected. If we really understand this Universal Truth, you will not think so much, and just come forward to share. Sharing is not to benefit Dennis, it benefits everyone. Anyone who withhold from sharing, again the person that loses out the most is not Dennis, but he/she himself. Becos we are all connected and give and we shall receive, a person who withhold from sharing (giving), will have very little.

We are ALL connected. Do you all really understand this? If you do, you would agree with what I say and come forward to share, regardless of whether you like Dennis or not, or whatever opinion you have on Dennis.

I see myself as a teacher. I do NOT aim to be liked by everyone. If a seminar graduate hates me for something I say/do, but if years later, when he/she looked back, can realise why I said/did that something and the intention is good and not bad, then even if what I said/did resulted in that seminar graduate hating me for years, it is worth it. I don't mind at all. Becos as I said, the only guide to what I say/do is Conscience and Intention (asking myself is my conscience clear and is my intention good or bad?) Using these 2 criteria as guide, I make decisions quickly on what to say/do and what not to say/do.

Will it result in me saying things that might hurt someone? Yes. But is the intention to hurt someone? No. I will not withhold just becos I know what I say may not be what people like to hear, as I said, I'm not here to aim to have everyone to like me.

Now, as I looked back in my life, I realised that there are teachers I used to dislike at that moment, but when now I looked back, I finally realise that whatever they said/did is for my benefit, even though it didn't seem that way when the incident happened.

[Dennis Ng]

Uncle Ben- With Great Power Comes Great responsiblities

These are the years a man change into a man he will become. Just be careful what you change into. Remember with Great Power, comes Great responsibilities.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5d6rTQcU2U

[Dennis Ng]

One of the thing I always advocate is that seminar graduates should Learn How to Think Independently and do not follow or listen to anyone blindly.

At the centre of the inquiry by the Commisioner of Charities (CoC) is the City Harvest Church's Crossover Project.

The project was set up in 2002 purportedly to use Sun Ho's secular music to connect with people and reach out to non-Christians.

Things you should think independently about are:
1. if you go through all the songs and albums of Sun Ho, how much of it is really trying to achieve the objective to reach out to non-Christians to make them interested in Christianity?

2. The project started in year 2002. As with any project, it should be reviewed for its effectiveness. People need to know how much was spent/invested into the project and what tangible/intangible Benefits/Results from the Project?

3. The project should be reviewed or even stopped if review shows that it is not very effective in achieving the objectives it set out to achieve, to assess the Cost vs Benefits of this project.

4. Frankly, as a layman who knows nothing, my only impression is "why a pastor's wife is dressing so vampishly and singing songs "Mr Bill" with lyrics such as "I want to kill Bill (husband in the song)....

I don't know about all her songs, but this song talks about "KIll Bill" - Killing her misbehaving husband. Is this the value that City Harvest wants to be associated with? How will this help in reaching out to non-christians to get them interested in Christianity.

Watch the video yourself, look at the way she behaves and dress, is this what we want our young to learn?

Mr Bill - by Sun Ho
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GgxsfODXrI

China Wine - by Sun Ho
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ya3Hqu_ ... re=related

Frankly, I have never heard of these songs until today. Is the Cross Over project achieving its objectives? I don't know, you have any info/facts/supporting figures to share?

I'm not here to accuse or judge anyone.

No one is perfect and as human beings, we are far from perfect. Let's aim for CANI - Conitnuous and Never Ending Improvement or what the Japanese termed as "Kaizen", let's aim to improve ourselves.

When we see others err let this be a Warning that we should NOT commit the same mistake. But let us pray for their change, that they will change their ways and be on the Right path again. Wherever Mr Durai is, I hope he learned from his lesson and now has become a better person.

Be selective of who we learn from, becos if we learn from wrong person the wrong values, we might be led into a wrong path.


China Wine (feat. Wyclef Jean, Tony Matterhorn & Elephant Man):

Listen me, Geisha!

- Sun -
Mi waan see you lek huas all mi girls sep you inna huah
Everybody everybody china wine china wine
Mr. china wine do di dutty wine
Everybody china wine everybody china wine
Everybody china wine (wohoo, w-ley, w-la)
Mr. china wine do di dutty wine

- Wyclef Jean -
I'll never forget when my plane landed in di jamaica,
It was me Tony Matterhorn, Elephant man and the gyal that they call Giesha
She said Chine wine Chine wine Chine wine
And I asked her what does it mean
She said in china we know do di dutty wine
So mash dem a mix it with di china wine

China wine China wine (wohoo)
China wine China wine (w-ley)
China wine China wine (w-la)
Mix da china wine do di dutty wine

China wine China wine (wohoo)
China wine China wine (w-ley)
China wine China wine (w-la)
And we'll dance my problems away

- Tony Matterhorn -
When di body ready wine it up
In da club on di dance in china it up
Wyclef boss blame and grind it up
Cause di way she move shes hard to touch
Never seen something look so fine ah!
Right from jamaica straight to China
When the girl dutty wine ah !
And are there that her design yea
Hips dont lie its makes ya find out
Wonder if shes from savana she from jamaica, china
I would like to find out . Girl

China wine China wine (wohoo)
China wine China wine (w-ley)
China wine China wine (w-la)
Mix da china wine do di dutty wine

China wine China wine (wohoo)
China wine China wine (w-ley)
China wine China wine (w-la)
And we'll dance my problems away

- Sun -
Throw on my dancing shoes
I've got nothing to lose
Tonight i'm gonna hit dem mia like (ready ready fine)
In party, wee-ee

- Elephant Man -
Gal make you pon con pine we do wine in clean
We a di twin when you back china wine
Everyone you shyan scha you shwayn wyclef jean
Jamaican geishan
She make me so chug collide-chug collide-chug collide ten
We dont china wine, make me a sen
Dutty, im yute from like a man grim like a sushi in china wine
And from do im widi yudi gudi yudi yu
We complete like puff-a-little groups

China wine China wine (wohoo)
China wine China wine (w-ley)
China wine China wine (w-la)
Mix da china wine do di dutty wine

China wine China wine (wohoo)
China wine China wine (w-ley)
China wine China wine (w-la)
And we'll dance my problems away

- Sun -
Dance, dance, oh-whoo (关掉X5) Na-na-na
and well dance my problems away Na-na-na
Mr. china wine do di dutty wine
China wine China wine (wohoo)
China wine China wine (w-ley)
China wine China wine (w-la)
Mr. China wine do di dutty wine

China wine China wine (wohoo)
China wine China wine (w-ley)
China wine China wine (w-la)
And we'll dance my problems away

[candy_chia]

Interview of Mr Low Swee Seh (new CEO of Tzu Chi Singapore) at 5:45 via link :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMPFgaq0JcA

Saw the following headline from Yahoo news and also heard it over TV news:

Code: Select all

"City Harvest founder Kong Hee arrested for alleged misuse of church funds"
"Pastor Kong, his deputy John Tan Ye Peng and three other key ministry members -- Lam Leng Hung, Chew Eng Han, Tan Shao Yuen Sharon -- were arrested at their homes early Tuesday morning and questioned over the alleged misuse of at least S$23 million from church funds"

The investigation started way back in May 2010 - no conclusion if the parties are at fault but obviously a lot of taxpayer money and effort from the authorities were spent.

Lets wait and see the magic work of "we are all connected"

Rgds,
Wei Teck

These people do not understand that "With great power, comes great responsibility"....they are in a position that people look up to, and respect...so whatever they do can have a big impact on the society.

I'm so glad to watch the TV news interview when Mr Low Swee Seh (new CEO of Tzu Chi Singapore) shares how Tzu Chi even make sure that the CEO pays for his own trips overseas....(incidentally Mr Low and Mr Sim Hee Chew (both very active volunteers at Tzu Chi) are also our seminar (sign ups), they have not found the time to attend the seminars yet as they are always overseas and busy with the voluntary work at Tzu Chi...

I hope Mr Low's sharing let the public know that there are good and selfless people around in the society.



As I said, one of the main Universal Truths that all religions teach is to be "selfless", so this is why it is so sad when the Pastor actually showed is "selfishness" instead (misuse public funds for promotion of his wife's music career). So beware of people who only talk and might not walk their talk, who only Preach but do NOT practise what they preach.

When we see others err let this be a Warning that we should NOT commit the same mistake. But let us pray for their change, that they will change their ways and be on the Right path again. Wherever Mr Durai is, I hope he learned from his lesson and now has become a better person.

[Dennis Ng]

latest news again shows that U.S. economy remains anaemic...with unemployment staying high, U.S. economy cannot recover since 70% of its economy comprises of internal consumption.

U.S. total debts increased from US$14.3 trillion in Jul 2011 to about US$15.8 trillion now, just below its New revised debt limit of US$16.4 trillion. Even if U.S. launches QE3, if they want to spare some money US$200 billion for interests...then max QE3 can only be about US$400 billion.

Imagine 2 rounds of QE totalling US$2.3 trillion didn't revive the economy, if QE3 of amount of only US$400 billion announced, this might disappoint the market and cause markets to fall instead. Is this the reason why Ben Bernanke of Fed is NOT willing to announce QE3? He has only 1 bullet left to last him till Presidential elections in Nov 2012...I bet Ben Bernanke cannot sleep well every night as it is a long wait to Nov 2012 since everyday something might happens that trigger a Global Financial Crisis...

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

Jobless Claims in U.S. Hovered Last Week Near 2012 High
By Michelle Jamrisko and Shobhana Chandra - Jun 28, 2012 8:48 PM GMT+0800

June 28 (Bloomberg) -- The number of applications for unemployment benefits hovered last week near the highest level of the year. Jobless claims decreased by 6,000 to 386,000 in the week ended June 23, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Separately, Commerce Department figures showed the U.S. economy grew 1.9 percent in the first quarter, reflecting a gain in consumer spending that now shows signs of cooling as the labor market weakens.

Jobless claims decreased by 6,000 to 386,000 in the week ended June 23, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The prior week’s reading was revised up to 392,000 from 387,000, matching an April figure as the steepest of 2012.

Concern about the fallout from the European debt crisis and the so-called fiscal cliff that will face the U.S. at the end of this year may prompt employers to keep payrolls lean. Federal Reserve policy makers last week expanded a program to replace short-term bonds with longer-term debt in a bid to spur growth and trim a jobless rate that’s exceeded 8 percent for 40 consecutive months.

“There is no progress,” said Jeremy Lawson, a senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York. “There is clearly an underlying weakness that is troubling. The labor market is sputtering along, struggling to create jobs. The pace of consumer spending will slow in the second quarter.”

The world’s largest economy expanded 1.9 percent in the first quarter, the same as previously estimated, data from the Commerce Department also showed today.
Economists’ Estimates

The median forecast of 46 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected claims would come in at 385,000. Estimates ranged from 372,000 to 392,000.

Stock-index futures maintained losses after the figures, with the contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in September falling 0.5 percent to 1,319.1 at 8:47 a.m. in New York.

The four-week moving average decreased to 386,750 from 387,500, which was the highest since the week ended Dec. 3.

Payrolls in May expanded by 69,000 workers, the slowest pace in a year, and have cooled each month since January. The jobless rate, which climbed to 8.2 percent in May, has been stuck above 8 percent since February 2009, the longest stretch of such elevated levels in the post-World War II era.

The employment report for June will be released on July 6.
Continuing Claims

Today’s report showed the number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits fell by 15,000 to 3.3 million in the week ended June 16.

The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs.

Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments increased by about 60,400 to 2.71 million in the week ended June 9.

The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits was at 2.6 percent for a 14th consecutive week, according to today’s report.

Thirty-seven states and territories reported a decrease in claims, while 16 reported an increase. These data are reported with a one-week lag.

Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings and tend to fall as job growth -- measured by the monthly non-farm payrolls report -- accelerates.
Operation Twist

Fed officials last week said they’ll expand Operation Twist, a program to replace short-term bonds with longer-term debt, by $267 billion through the end of 2012. They left unchanged their view that economic conditions will probably warrant keeping interest rates “exceptionally low” at least through late 2014, and said they are “prepared to take further action as appropriate.”

Policy makers see 1.9 percent to 2.4 percent growth in 2012, down from their April forecast of 2.4 percent to 2.9 percent, according to Fed projections issued last week. They forecast the unemployment rate will end the year at 8 percent to 8.2 percent, up from April’s 7.8 percent to 8 percent estimate.

“Usually coming out of a recession, there’s pent-up demand to change jobs and people want to try new things, try new skills,” said Michael Durney, chief financial officer of New York-based Dice Holdings Inc. (DHX), which provides hiring services to recruiters, consultants and businesses.

“But it stayed below and we think that that’s probably the result of the overall uneasiness about the economy,” Durney said at a June 19 conference.

To contact the reporters on this story: Michelle Jamrisko in Washington at mjamrisko@bloomberg.net; Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net

[Dennis Ng]

Today is our once a month Company Lunch day where every month, we go to a different restaurant and I treat my entire team for a relaxing and sumptuous lunch for 2 hours, so that all the staff of my 3 companies have a chance to mingle (since we work in 3 separate offices)...and today is the 3rd time we went to a popular Japaneses Buffet restaurant called "Kuishinbo".

http://www.kuishinbo.com.sg/

The last 3 times we went there (their outlet at Great World City), the restaurant is fully packed during lunch and even have people waiting outside.

Today, we went in the section that can sit about 60 people, we are the only ones sitting there (13 of us), so it is as though the entire section is reserved for our "Private Function".

Is this a sign of the economy slowing down? I'm not sure, but I was sure surprised to see Kuishinbo having so many empty seats during lunch time at this outlet since this is the 3rd time we go to the same outlet...

[Dennis Ng]

Hi all,

interesting thing I notice is that in all 3 possible scenarios, from the Worst Case Scenario (Euro zone Collapse) to Best Case Sccenario "Euro Zone muddle through", all the analyts interviewed still recommend buying stocks, just different types of stocks.

None of them say "sell stocks in event of Euro Zone collapse"....interesting.

Similarly, I observed that even back in year 2008 when STI was at 3,600 points and falling, no analysts said "sell stocks"...well, if you didn't sell stocks then, you would then witness STI plunging from 3,600 to lowest level of 1,456 in March 2009...

Are they asking you to buy stocks and not mention sell stocks in whatever scenario becos of their "vested interest"? What do you think?

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

The good, the bad, and the ugly
S'pore economy is doing well but global roller-coaster ride won't be ending soon

Published on Jul 1, 2012

By Melissa Tan

Assets look a little on the cheap side these days, whether property or shares, but plunging in head-first with an open cheque book might not be the best strategy.

As we enter the third quarter after a tumultuous previous three months, it is worth checking out the macroeconomic scene - or the big picture, in layman terms - to see where we are and where we might end up.

One thing is for sure: The roller-coaster ride investors have been on for the past few years is not going to flatten out any time soon, and the impending sense that there is another crisis waiting just around the corner will not go away either.

Glimmer of hope

'With the oil price and commodities prices going downwards, inflationary pressure will be reduced and the US and China may be able to introduce more growth-enhancing measures to stimulate their economies... The external environment might improve in the second half and Singapore is likely to benefit from these measures.'

- Dr Tan Khay Boon, SIM University business school senior lecturer

So it is worth trying to get a grip on this ever-fluid situation. The more we know, the more damage we might be able to avoid.

Singapore economy faring well

On the bright side, things seem to be looking up domestically.

Gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter grew 1.6 per cent from the same period a year ago and 10 per cent from the preceding quarter.

Growth is expected to continue chugging along at a modest pace.

Economists surveyed by The Sunday Times are tipping expansion to come in at the higher end of the Government's forecast of 1 per cent to 3 per cent for this year, or even exceed it.

At one end of the spectrum, Mr Aninda Mitra, head of economics for South-east Asia at ANZ bank, noted that 'rising external risks' had prompted him to downgrade his forecast from 3 per cent to 2.7 per cent for the year.

DBS Bank's Mr Irvin Seah predicts 3.5 per cent growth, although he noted that 'a pullback in GDP growth in the second quarter should not be a surprise'.

'Quite likely, the sector driving the current surge in growth in the first quarter will also be the sector responsible for the forthcoming moderation - the manufacturing sector,' he added.

But ABN-Amro senior economist Maritza Cabezas thinks that 'in the second half of the year, growth momentum should pick up somewhat in Singapore as the risks in the euro zone diminish and overseas demand recovers'.

Jobs and wages unlikely to be severely hit

Even if there is a slowdown, analysts say that employment and salaries are unlikely to be affected too much.

Singapore's unemployment rate, which has been at historic lows, inched up to 2.1 per cent in the first three months of this year.

'The ongoing slowdown has already made employers more cautious in their hiring intentions,' said OCBC economist Selena Ling.

However, she noted: 'The very modest easing in job vacancies suggests only a slight loosening in tight labour market conditions for now.

'So while the job and wage expectations may be dampened slightly vis-a-vis 2011, we do not expect a sharp correction, especially given the foreign manpower constraints.'

Barclays Capital economist Leong Wai Ho, who tips growth at 3.3 per cent this year, expects wage increases to be around 5 per cent, about the same as last year.

This takes into account salary demands due to high inflation, which has been hovering at above 5 per cent in recent months.

Prices of stocks affected more than property

Analysts say that a slowdown is likely to hit shares more than property prices.

SIM University (UniSIM) business school senior lecturer Tan Khay Boon notes that asset prices in Singapore are affected more by liquidity than by economic growth.

'So long as interest rates remain low and liquidity available, the asset prices are likely to be sustained unless there is a severe deterioration in the external environment,' he said.

Mr Leong said a slowdown now would be different from the 2008 recession, when a sudden liquidity drought followed by aggressive central bank easing caused a 'sharper downward move, followed by a sharper rebound'.

'This time, it could be a slow grind lower in the case of equities... A gradual slowdown could weigh on corporate profitability, dimming the outlook for stocks which have dropped 6.5 per cent since April.

'For property, the impact could be milder... Property prices are expected to be more resilient, as long as the labour markets stay resilient.'

Best-case scenario: Quick resolution

In an ideal world, the euro-zone problems would be resolved decisively, the United States would introduce additional monetary easing, China would engineer a soft landing and global demand would recover.

If euro-zone countries allow the European Central Bank to 'take decisive action to inject liquidity and work with governments to recapitalise peripheral banking systems... if this can be done quickly, the sense of crisis would fade away and the EU can turn to the longer-term question of restoring competitiveness', said Mr Leong.

'For Singapore, it means that the hit to sentiment-sensitive activity (5 per cent of GDP) will be mitigated.'

Worst-case scenario: Grexit or euro-zone collapse

A Greek exit - or 'Grexit' - from the euro zone or a break-up of the single currency are the nightmare scenarios keeping plenty of people awake at night.

Credit Suisse economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde said in a report that euro-zone GDP would probably fall 2 per cent if Greece exits and plunge up to 10 per cent if the currency union falls apart.

To put these numbers in context, euro-zone GDP fell by around 5 per cent during the global financial crisis, he added.

Mr Prior-Wandesforde predicts that Singapore would be the Asian country worst hit by either of these two scenarios, and would go into 'deep recession' if the euro zone collapsed.

UBS Wealth Management regional chief investment officer Kelvin Tay said: 'Although Singapore's exports to the euro zone comprises around 12 per cent of GDP, global export volumes are likely to drop sharply... unemployment would probably increase, exacerbating an already weak property market.'

Likely scenario: Euro zone 'muddles through'

What is more likely is that the euro zone will manage to muddle through the crisis, say analysts, meaning that while no catastrophic events occur, no speedy solution will be found either.

'My prediction of the likely scenario is that the euro-zone economy issues will not disappear in the near term but it will be contained,' said Dr Tan. 'With the oil price and commodities prices going downwards, inflationary pressure will be reduced and the US and China may be able to introduce more growth-enhancing measures to stimulate their economies.'

'The external environment might improve in the second half and Singapore is likely to benefit from these measures,' he added.

melissat@sph.com.sg

THREE INVESTMENT SCENARIOS

Best case

A quick resolution of euro-zone woes, further monetary easing in the United States and a soft landing in China.

In this situation, unemployment would remain at 2 per cent or less and real wages would grow 5 per cent to 10 per cent, OCBC economist Selena Ling said.

What to do: 'Singapore would benefit from a strong rebound in global demand, and achieve export-led growth of 6 per cent for real GDP in the second half of 2012 (and 4.5 to 5 per cent real GDP growth for the full year),' said Mr P.K. Basu, regional head of research and economics at Maybank Kim Eng.

'In that scenario, investors should be strongly overweight in Singapore equities, with a focus on the high-beta sectors, including property stocks and banks.'

Worst case

Greek exit from euro zone or a collapse of the single currency union.

Unemployment could rise to as high as 5 per cent while real wages fall, possibly by up to 5 per cent as well, Ms Ling said.

In comparison, real wages fell close to 3 per cent during the 2008 recession and by 4 per cent to 5 per cent in the 2001 downturn.

What to do: 'What worked very well last year were high-dividend stocks and investment-grade bonds... investors should take advantage of the ongoing weaknesses in the market and invest in high-yielding stocks (largely found in Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong, with a smattering in Malaysia) and five-year duration investment-grade corporates,' said UBS Wealth Management regional chief investment officer Kelvin Tay.

Likely case

Euro zone 'muddle-through'.

Unemployment would hover between 2 per cent and 3 per cent, while real wages increase by up to 5 per cent, according to Ms Ling.

What to do: 'Slow growth with periodic bouts of volatility is an environment where high-yielding assets outperform. Therefore, our favoured asset classes remain high-dividend equities and high-yield bonds. The benefit of these asset classes is that they also generally outperform global equities in a recessionary environment as well,' said Mr Steve Brice, chief investment strategist at Standard Chartered Bank's group wealth management division.

Mr Basu said: 'Singapore investors should stay with a defensive high dividend-yield portfolio (including Reits, and the likes of the telcos, SPH and ST Engineering), and selectively overweight undervalued equities in China, India and Vietnam.'

Melissa Tan

[candy_chia]

If any analyst dare to recommend "sell stock in event of Euro Zone collapse", he may be the one to see his career collapsed first.

I think stock analysts will work like cartel, by agreeing to the timing to suggest sell to a particular stock.

Hi all,

interesting thing I notice is that in all 3 possible scenarios, from the Worst Case Scenario (Euro zone Collapse) to Best Case Sccenario "Euro Zone muddle through", all the analyts interviewed still recommend buying stocks, just different types of stocks.

None of them say "sell stocks in event of Euro Zone collapse"....interesting.

Similarly, I observed that even back in year 2008 when STI was at 3,600 points and falling, no analysts said "sell stocks"...well, if you didn't sell stocks then, you would then witness STI plunging from 3,600 to lowest level of 1,456 in March 2009...

Are they asking you to buy stocks and not mention sell stocks in whatever scenario becos of their "vested interest"? What do you think?

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

The good, the bad, and the ugly
S'pore economy is doing well but global roller-coaster ride won't be ending soon

Published on Jul 1, 2012

By Melissa Tan

Assets look a little on the cheap side these days, whether property or shares, but plunging in head-first with an open cheque book might not be the best strategy.

As we enter the third quarter after a tumultuous previous three months, it is worth checking out the macroeconomic scene - or the big picture, in layman terms - to see where we are and where we might end up.

One thing is for sure: The roller-coaster ride investors have been on for the past few years is not going to flatten out any time soon, and the impending sense that there is another crisis waiting just around the corner will not go away either.

Glimmer of hope

'With the oil price and commodities prices going downwards, inflationary pressure will be reduced and the US and China may be able to introduce more growth-enhancing measures to stimulate their economies... The external environment might improve in the second half and Singapore is likely to benefit from these measures.'

- Dr Tan Khay Boon, SIM University business school senior lecturer

So it is worth trying to get a grip on this ever-fluid situation. The more we know, the more damage we might be able to avoid.

Singapore economy faring well

On the bright side, things seem to be looking up domestically.

Gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter grew 1.6 per cent from the same period a year ago and 10 per cent from the preceding quarter.

Growth is expected to continue chugging along at a modest pace.

Economists surveyed by The Sunday Times are tipping expansion to come in at the higher end of the Government's forecast of 1 per cent to 3 per cent for this year, or even exceed it.

At one end of the spectrum, Mr Aninda Mitra, head of economics for South-east Asia at ANZ bank, noted that 'rising external risks' had prompted him to downgrade his forecast from 3 per cent to 2.7 per cent for the year.

DBS Bank's Mr Irvin Seah predicts 3.5 per cent growth, although he noted that 'a pullback in GDP growth in the second quarter should not be a surprise'.

'Quite likely, the sector driving the current surge in growth in the first quarter will also be the sector responsible for the forthcoming moderation - the manufacturing sector,' he added.

But ABN-Amro senior economist Maritza Cabezas thinks that 'in the second half of the year, growth momentum should pick up somewhat in Singapore as the risks in the euro zone diminish and overseas demand recovers'.

Jobs and wages unlikely to be severely hit

Even if there is a slowdown, analysts say that employment and salaries are unlikely to be affected too much.

Singapore's unemployment rate, which has been at historic lows, inched up to 2.1 per cent in the first three months of this year.

'The ongoing slowdown has already made employers more cautious in their hiring intentions,' said OCBC economist Selena Ling.

However, she noted: 'The very modest easing in job vacancies suggests only a slight loosening in tight labour market conditions for now.

'So while the job and wage expectations may be dampened slightly vis-a-vis 2011, we do not expect a sharp correction, especially given the foreign manpower constraints.'

Barclays Capital economist Leong Wai Ho, who tips growth at 3.3 per cent this year, expects wage increases to be around 5 per cent, about the same as last year.

This takes into account salary demands due to high inflation, which has been hovering at above 5 per cent in recent months.

Prices of stocks affected more than property

Analysts say that a slowdown is likely to hit shares more than property prices.

SIM University (UniSIM) business school senior lecturer Tan Khay Boon notes that asset prices in Singapore are affected more by liquidity than by economic growth.

'So long as interest rates remain low and liquidity available, the asset prices are likely to be sustained unless there is a severe deterioration in the external environment,' he said.

Mr Leong said a slowdown now would be different from the 2008 recession, when a sudden liquidity drought followed by aggressive central bank easing caused a 'sharper downward move, followed by a sharper rebound'.

'This time, it could be a slow grind lower in the case of equities... A gradual slowdown could weigh on corporate profitability, dimming the outlook for stocks which have dropped 6.5 per cent since April.

'For property, the impact could be milder... Property prices are expected to be more resilient, as long as the labour markets stay resilient.'

Best-case scenario: Quick resolution

In an ideal world, the euro-zone problems would be resolved decisively, the United States would introduce additional monetary easing, China would engineer a soft landing and global demand would recover.

If euro-zone countries allow the European Central Bank to 'take decisive action to inject liquidity and work with governments to recapitalise peripheral banking systems... if this can be done quickly, the sense of crisis would fade away and the EU can turn to the longer-term question of restoring competitiveness', said Mr Leong.

'For Singapore, it means that the hit to sentiment-sensitive activity (5 per cent of GDP) will be mitigated.'

Worst-case scenario: Grexit or euro-zone collapse

A Greek exit - or 'Grexit' - from the euro zone or a break-up of the single currency are the nightmare scenarios keeping plenty of people awake at night.

Credit Suisse economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde said in a report that euro-zone GDP would probably fall 2 per cent if Greece exits and plunge up to 10 per cent if the currency union falls apart.

To put these numbers in context, euro-zone GDP fell by around 5 per cent during the global financial crisis, he added.

Mr Prior-Wandesforde predicts that Singapore would be the Asian country worst hit by either of these two scenarios, and would go into 'deep recession' if the euro zone collapsed.

UBS Wealth Management regional chief investment officer Kelvin Tay said: 'Although Singapore's exports to the euro zone comprises around 12 per cent of GDP, global export volumes are likely to drop sharply... unemployment would probably increase, exacerbating an already weak property market.'

Likely scenario: Euro zone 'muddles through'

What is more likely is that the euro zone will manage to muddle through the crisis, say analysts, meaning that while no catastrophic events occur, no speedy solution will be found either.

'My prediction of the likely scenario is that the euro-zone economy issues will not disappear in the near term but it will be contained,' said Dr Tan. 'With the oil price and commodities prices going downwards, inflationary pressure will be reduced and the US and China may be able to introduce more growth-enhancing measures to stimulate their economies.'

'The external environment might improve in the second half and Singapore is likely to benefit from these measures,' he added.

melissat@sph.com.sg

THREE INVESTMENT SCENARIOS

Best case

A quick resolution of euro-zone woes, further monetary easing in the United States and a soft landing in China.

In this situation, unemployment would remain at 2 per cent or less and real wages would grow 5 per cent to 10 per cent, OCBC economist Selena Ling said.

What to do: 'Singapore would benefit from a strong rebound in global demand, and achieve export-led growth of 6 per cent for real GDP in the second half of 2012 (and 4.5 to 5 per cent real GDP growth for the full year),' said Mr P.K. Basu, regional head of research and economics at Maybank Kim Eng.

'In that scenario, investors should be strongly overweight in Singapore equities, with a focus on the high-beta sectors, including property stocks and banks.'

Worst case

Greek exit from euro zone or a collapse of the single currency union.

Unemployment could rise to as high as 5 per cent while real wages fall, possibly by up to 5 per cent as well, Ms Ling said.

In comparison, real wages fell close to 3 per cent during the 2008 recession and by 4 per cent to 5 per cent in the 2001 downturn.

What to do: 'What worked very well last year were high-dividend stocks and investment-grade bonds... investors should take advantage of the ongoing weaknesses in the market and invest in high-yielding stocks (largely found in Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong, with a smattering in Malaysia) and five-year duration investment-grade corporates,' said UBS Wealth Management regional chief investment officer Kelvin Tay.

Likely case

Euro zone 'muddle-through'.

Unemployment would hover between 2 per cent and 3 per cent, while real wages increase by up to 5 per cent, according to Ms Ling.

What to do: 'Slow growth with periodic bouts of volatility is an environment where high-yielding assets outperform. Therefore, our favoured asset classes remain high-dividend equities and high-yield bonds. The benefit of these asset classes is that they also generally outperform global equities in a recessionary environment as well,' said Mr Steve Brice, chief investment strategist at Standard Chartered Bank's group wealth management division.

Mr Basu said: 'Singapore investors should stay with a defensive high dividend-yield portfolio (including Reits, and the likes of the telcos, SPH and ST Engineering), and selectively overweight undervalued equities in China, India and Vietnam.'

Melissa Tan

[Dennis Ng]

If any analyst dare to recommend "sell stock in event of Euro Zone collapse", he may be the one to see his career collapsed first.

I think stock analysts will work like cartel, by agreeing to the timing to suggest sell to a particular stock.

Vested Interest affect what these people (analysts) would say. For instance, if you keep track, over many years, you never hear Mr Mohammed Ismail of Propnex or Mr Kwek Leng Beng of City Developments say anything negative about property.

Few people are as "stupid" Dennis who will be so frank to say what he really thinks and not affected by any vested interests and he can even say negative things about Property market when he owns http://www.HousingLoanSG.com , which actually benefit if more people buy properties and more people take Housing Loans.

[Dennis Ng]

yes, government is going to raise retirement age from 62 to 65. The question is not whether people are willing or want to continue to work beyond age 62, the question is whether they can find a job and what kind of job can they find when they are aged 62 and above?

I don't think many elderly people who I now see working as toilet cleaners or cleaners in hawker centres and food courts really choose to work as Cleaner but more of they cannot find other jobs...

Thus, the best thing we can do as individual is to increase our Financial Knowledge and learn to master our finances. For instance, I could choose to retire and do nothing at age 39 (3 years ago) when I achieved Financial Freedom, so I could retire at age 39 instead of 65...the only reason I didn't retire is becos I don't want to. The only reason now I spend almost full time learning and sharing on this forum and other media is becos I want to and I'm in a financial position to choose what I want to do and what I do not want to do.

Having the Power to choose what I do daily and what I do and not to do is a very Empowering and Liberating feeling, another benefit brought by achieving Financial Freedom.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

I notice that it is tough to get employment when you are in your 40s, it makes me wonder what is the purpose of extending the retirement age?

My ex-neighbour's husband who is in his late 40s also faced the the same trauma when he was retrenched from his company as a senior mechanical engineer 3 years ago.

After being jobless for 3 months, he likewise accepted a low-salary technician job at $2k plus as he has 3 primary school levels kids and his wife is a homemaker. Luckily, he managed to secure another engineer post last year, but at lower salary of $4k plus with shift.

Read this article in internet: (Not written be me).

Mid-40s NTU engineering grad now works as $1600 technician
May 26th, 2012

It was something that he desperately took up as he didn’t want to go jobless for too long after he was retrenched from a lucrative $60,000/year IT engineering position earlier this year.

Its true that jobless PMETs who continue working at lower-end jobs after retrenchment often feel energised and positive than those who simply apply for jobs and wait at home for the phone calls.

Looking younger than his mid-40s age, Thomas earned his engineering degree from NTU.

[ilovecck]

yes, government is going to raise retirement age from 62 to 65. The question is not whether people are willing or want to continue to work beyond age 62, the question is whether they can find a job and what kind of job can they find when they are aged 62 and above?

I don't think many elderly people who I now see working as toilet cleaners or cleaners in hawker centres and food courts really choose to work as Cleaner but more of they cannot find other jobs...

Thus, the best thing we can do as individual is to increase our Financial Knowledge and learn to master our finances. For instance, I could choose to retire and do nothing at age 39 (3 years ago) when I achieved Financial Freedom, so I could retire at age 39 instead of 65...the only reason I didn't retire is becos I don't want to. The only reason now I spend almost full time learning and sharing on this forum and other media is becos I want to and I'm in a financial position to choose what I want to do and what I do not want to do.

Having the Power to choose what I do daily and what I do and not to do is a very Empowering and Liberating feeling, another benefit brought by achieving Financial Freedom.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

I notice that it is tough to get employment when you are in your 40s, it makes me wonder what is the purpose of extending the retirement age?

My ex-neighbour's husband who is in his late 40s also faced the the same trauma when he was retrenched from his company as a senior mechanical engineer 3 years ago.

After being jobless for 3 months, he likewise accepted a low-salary technician job at $2k plus as he has 3 primary school levels kids and his wife is a homemaker. Luckily, he managed to secure another engineer post last year, but at lower salary of $4k plus with shift.

Read this article in internet: (Not written be me).

Mid-40s NTU engineering grad now works as $1600 technician
May 26th, 2012

It was something that he desperately took up as he didn’t want to go jobless for too long after he was retrenched from a lucrative $60,000/year IT engineering position earlier this year.

Its true that jobless PMETs who continue working at lower-end jobs after retrenchment often feel energised and positive than those who simply apply for jobs and wait at home for the phone calls.

Looking younger than his mid-40s age, Thomas earned his engineering degree from NTU.

man, looking at Candy's posting on yet another story of Engineer in his 40s being retrenched really remind me of the urgency at hand.

I am 28, and an engineer too (theres really too much engineers in SG imo). And most of the retrenchment news I heard about are mostly engineers too, who are in their 30s or 40s. It is not just a matter of livehood, but also of pride when one has to take on a post much below one lvl of expertise.

Looking at this news has really remind me again that theres a need to have a comfortable lvl of cash at hand by 35 even one is not financially free yet. That really give u more freedom to "move around" when such things happen

[Albert]

My humble view is that the comfortable level of cash should always be ready at anytime, not when u are 35. It is constantly adjusted upwards with inflation and consistent with your 12mth total expenses!!

man, looking at Candy's posting on yet another story of Engineer in his 40s being retrenched really remind me of the urgency at hand.

I am 28, and an engineer too (theres really too much engineers in SG imo). And most of the retrenchment news I heard about are mostly engineers too, who are in their 30s or 40s. It is not just a matter of livehood, but also of pride when one has to take on a post much below one lvl of expertise.

Looking at this news has really remind me again that theres a need to have a comfortable lvl of cash at hand by 35 even one is not financially free yet. That really give u more freedom to "move around" when such things happen

[candy_chia]

I think one should never be satisfied with the current state of job, be it engineering or others, one should always be prepared for the possibilities that one may be redundant to the company one day, just like what Dennis advocates, "what if I'm wrong, will I be financially ok?"

My husband used to belong this vulnerable job category, but have since moved on to become a trainer in productivity after attaining six stigma black belt. Furthermore, he took up Business Chinese which could provide opportunity to the vast China market.

yes, government is going to raise retirement age from 62 to 65. The question is not whether people are willing or want to continue to work beyond age 62, the question is whether they can find a job and what kind of job can they find when they are aged 62 and above?

I don't think many elderly people who I now see working as toilet cleaners or cleaners in hawker centres and food courts really choose to work as Cleaner but more of they cannot find other jobs...

Thus, the best thing we can do as individual is to increase our Financial Knowledge and learn to master our finances. For instance, I could choose to retire and do nothing at age 39 (3 years ago) when I achieved Financial Freedom, so I could retire at age 39 instead of 65...the only reason I didn't retire is becos I don't want to. The only reason now I spend almost full time learning and sharing on this forum and other media is becos I want to and I'm in a financial position to choose what I want to do and what I do not want to do.

Having the Power to choose what I do daily and what I do and not to do is a very Empowering and Liberating feeling, another benefit brought by achieving Financial Freedom.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

I notice that it is tough to get employment when you are in your 40s, it makes me wonder what is the purpose of extending the retirement age?

My ex-neighbour's husband who is in his late 40s also faced the the same trauma when he was retrenched from his company as a senior mechanical engineer 3 years ago.

After being jobless for 3 months, he likewise accepted a low-salary technician job at $2k plus as he has 3 primary school levels kids and his wife is a homemaker. Luckily, he managed to secure another engineer post last year, but at lower salary of $4k plus with shift.

man, looking at Candy's posting on yet another story of Engineer in his 40s being retrenched really remind me of the urgency at hand.

I am 28, and an engineer too (theres really too much engineers in SG imo). And most of the retrenchment news I heard about are mostly engineers too, who are in their 30s or 40s. It is not just a matter of livehood, but also of pride when one has to take on a post much below one lvl of expertise.

Looking at this news has really remind me again that theres a need to have a comfortable lvl of cash at hand by 35 even one is not financially free yet. That really give u more freedom to "move around" when such things happen