投资应该用双眼看世界 article published in My Paper on 17 Apr 2012
有读者问我：“加万，你的投资风格是什么？”
我同意杰出领袖邓小平所说的：不管黑猫或白猫，会抓老鼠就是好猫。我的投资风格也是不拘一格，设法吸取各投资大师的精华，再设法融会贯通，在不同的时候，运用不同的投资策略。
用单眼看世界？
我认识一些投资人士只运用基本分析，他们认为技术分析，或分析股票过去的价格与成交量是没有用的。因为，公司的盈利表现将影响股票价格，而不受过去股价的影响。
另一方面，我也认识一些投资人士，只依据技术分析来买卖股票。他们认为基本分析是分析过去公司的盈利，来设法推算公司未来的盈利，这分析方法太慢了。因为股票时刻在交易，在上下波动，而他们认为股票的基本面其实已经反映在股票的价格与交易量中。因此，只需技术分析便足够了。基本分析是画蛇添足。
吴加万选择用双眼看世界
而我呢？我个人认为如果只用技术或基本分析来分析股票，那等于是用一只眼睛看世界。 如果能融汇贯通，用基本分析加上技术分析来分析股票，那等于用两只眼睛看世界，会比用一只眼睛看得清楚。
用基本分析来分析决定买什么股
我用基本分析来分析公司的营运及财务表现来决定选择买那一些股票。市盈率 （Price Earning Ratio），股票价格对账面价值的比率 （Price to Net Asset Value），市盈率增长率 (Price Earning Growth Ratio) ，债务权益比率 (Debt to Equity Ratio)，利息偿付率 (Interest Coverage)，营业利润率 (Operating Profit Margin)，营业现金流量 (Net Operating Cashflows)等来分析该公司的业务表现与财务状况是否健全。
一般分析师喜欢用市盈率 （Price Earning Ratio）来分析一家公司的股票是否值得购买。市盈率是公司的股价乘于公司发行的股票数量除以公司的净盈利。举例，一家公司的股价为$1，共发行的股票数量为1亿或100 million，而公司盈利为$10 million，那么这家公司的市盈率 （Price Earning Ratio）为10，或者等于如果公司的盈利保持在一年$10 million，你以$1股价买公司的股票，需要10年公司赚的钱才足够让你回本。而投资该股票的年回报计算为1除以PE， 或 10%。 因此，一般股票分析师会说如果另一家公司的市盈率 （Price Earning Ratio）更低，例如只有8，那么你该投资市盈率 （Price Earning Ratio）较低的公司的股票，因为那代表你可以更早会本。
其实，如果你以此方法分析房地产股票便大错特错了。因为，当房地产公司的市盈率 （Price Earning Ratio）低过10的时候，那表示公司的盈利很高，这通常发生在房地产价格偏高，房地产市场接近高峰的时候。如果，你因为房地产公司的市盈率 （Price Earning Ratio）低而买股票，恰好在房地产市场接近高峰的时候买房地产股，一旦房地产市场开始下跌，公司的盈利便会下跌，而股票的价格也会下跌。因此，用市盈率 （Price Earning Ratio）低的基本分析方法买房地产股，你很可能会“Buy High, Sell Low”(高价买，低价卖)。
如何避免上述情况？我分析房地产股，主要分析股票价格对账面价值的比率 （Price to Net Asset Value）。 任何一家房地产公司如果 股价比账面价值高，我都不会投资该公司的股票。我专选股价低于账面价值的房地产公司的股票来买，用这策略买房地产股票，在过去19年投资至今都是百战百胜。
用基本分析来分析避开财务不健全的公司
一些公司可能盈利高，但是却因为资金周转出现问题而最后面临倒闭的厄运，因此我们需要分析公司的欠债是否过高，公司的银行贷款利息偿付率 (Interest Coverage)是否健康，营业现金流量是否充裕，便可以避免投资任何财务不大健全的公司。用上述比率来分析股票，其实便可以避免投资一些在去年因为资金周转出现问题而被新加坡股票交易所除牌的挂牌公司。
大局分析
除了分析财务报表以外，其实我们也需要分析“大局”。大局是全球经济的形势与展望。因为新加坡是一个主要靠外贸的经济体，因此，全球4大经济体，美国（占全球经济23%），欧盟（也占全球经济23%）,中国（占全球经济10%）与日本（占全球经济8%）的经济展望将会对我国的经济与股市起着重大的影响。
如果美国经济不好，美国股市下跌，那么通常新加坡股市也难逃下跌的命运。
除此以外，这些大国的一些决定也会对股市造成重大影响。例如，欧盟过去3个月大量“印钞票”，贷款超过 1万亿欧元1 trillion euros 给欧洲各大银行，那便造成全球股市上涨。
因此，如果不懂得基本分析，单靠技术分析，是无法做到上述的分析。
除了财务分析以外，基本分析还包括行业的趋势与展望的分析。例如，过去几年，越来越多人用数码相机造成曾经呼风唤雨制造胶卷的Kodak柯达面临破产倒闭的厄运。通过基本分析，你便可以轻而易举地避免投资这行业公司的股票。
除此以外，一些“无形”的因素，例如，市场对于一个公司品牌的认定，也会对该公司的股价以及公司推出的新产品的成败与否。例如，目前市面对Apple computer 的认可，不管是智能手提电话，MP3播放器或iPad平板电脑，Apple的市场占有率都遥遥领先行业对手。
有时候，一家公司的总裁的能力与魅力，也可以影响公司的市场占有率以及股价。
。
技术分析帮助我决定何时买卖股票
在决定了那家公司的股票值得投资后，我会通过技术分析来决定是否应该现在买该股票吗？如果这家公司的股票目前是下跌的趋势，那么我可能会等到股票下跌的趋势转为上升的趋势才买改股票。
如果改公司的技术分析是显示上升的趋势，那么我便会进场开始买改公司的股票。
如何分析股票的趋势呢？我通常用200天移动平均线为依据。因为，200天的交易等于40个星期的交易，或大约9个月的趋势。因此，200 天移动平均线可以比较准确地估算到底趋势是上升或下跌。
因为只有通过技术分析，我们才能知道整个股票市场的趋势是上升或下跌，以及个别股票的趋势是上升或下跌， 而避免“逆风而行”，我们是“顺水推舟”达到事半功倍的效果。 如果单单做基本分析，可能会在市场下跌时入场，而蒙受不必要的亏损。也可能在市场还处于上升的趋势便急忙把股票卖掉，错失大赚的机会。
因此，灵活地运用基本分析与技术分析来买卖股票，将能够让你比只用单一方法分析股票的投资人士更胜一筹。
作者拥有多年的银行工作经验，在 2003 年创办房贷咨询网站，www.HousingLoanSG.com , 2009 年创办了www.MasterYourFinance.com
Fundamental Analysis or Technical Analysis, which is better?
Moderators: alvin, learner, Dennis Ng
Fundamental Analysis or Technical Analysis, which is better?
Cheers!
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Re: Fundamental Analysis or Technical Analysis, which is bet
Hi Found this on Sunday times
Which similar to what Dennis shared:
The Straits Times Apr 22, 2012
SMALL CHANGE
Don't go chasing stock tips
To make money, learn the traits of successful investors instead
By Goh Eng Yeow
At the inaugural Sunday Times Invest Seminar held recently, speaker Lim Say Boon, chief investment officer of DBS Private Bank, remarked on how difficult it was to make money in the current uncertain market environment.
'If it were so easy to make money, I would not be here working on a Saturday,' he told the 600-strong audience on April 14.
It is a view shared by many in the audience - risk-averse investors like myself, who would like to enjoy a better return than the paltry 0.05 per cent interest we get on our POSB accounts, but are unwilling to put our hard-earned nest eggs at risk.
I mingled with the crowd after the seminar, and the recurring theme was an almost obsessive search for safe-haven assets. I was also flattered that some of the participants were keen to find out what I had invested in. 'Will you be buying the new Genting perpetual securities?' one of them asked.
Sure, I have covered the financial sector for almost 25 years, but even I have had my fair share of hits and misses among my investments.
But one piece of advice I want to offer is that, rather than focusing on specific stock tips, people should consider the traits of a successful investor.
One of the perks of being a markets writer that I have enjoyed is the opportunity to meet a number of investing geniuses over the years.
One thing that struck me is how ordinary they were. None of them seemed exceptionally clever, like the brilliant physicists and mathematicians I met at Cambridge University during my undergraduate days. Some of the investors did not seem to be very competitive, or even driven by the desire to make money.
Perhaps it was their other interests that turned them into such great investors, as they did not get distracted by the roller-coaster that hits the market from time to time. In fact, many of them did not even bother to track the market on a daily basis.
But they shared a common trait: All of them seemed to be at peace with themselves and the world, enjoying happy marriages and blissful family lives.
As investors, they also knew their limits. They would not be chasing after shares whose prices had already risen during a super bull run.
But when the blood was out on the street and the world seemed to be on the verge of collapsing, as it did in September 2008 when US investment bank Lehman Brothers failed, they would be out there, making big wagers on the market.
One other important trait they possessed was the ability not to miss the wood for the trees. Good investors go about life with their eyes open.
While others were chasing the latest hot stock tip tossed out by their brokers and analysts, they would be observing consumer habits and making careful notes of any trend that might be evolving.
And rather than taking analyst reports at face value, they would test the assumptions made in the reports with their first-hand experience.
There is another thing that I have noticed about good investors: Most of them do not invest in stocks or financial instruments about which they do not possess a good understanding.
The best example is legendary investment guru Warren Buffett, whose former daughter-in-law, Ms Mary Buffett, has just come out with another best-seller, The Warren Buffett Stock Portfolio, which examines the 17 stocks that helped him to achieve his extraordinary wealth.
Mr Buffett's stock portfolio, she noted, is filled with counters with a 'durable competitive advantage' and 'predictability of earnings'.
Take Wrigley's chewing gum, one of Mr Buffett's core stock holdings. Even with the advent of the Internet, which has revolutionised the way people interact with one another, people will still chew gum.
The same investing principle applies to US retail giant Walmart Stores, another of Mr Buffett's core stock holdings.
This is a company where an investor can get a pulse of the business simply by strolling into the many department stores it operates. For us, the local corollary would be grocery giant Dairy Farm and supermarket operator Sheng Siong Group.
The key, of course, is to identify such businesses and make sure that you have the cash ready to buy into their shares when they are unfairly sold down during stock market turmoil, which now occurs with distressing regularity.
It is a simple rule often articulated by Mr Buffett: Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.
engyeow@sph.com.sg
Which similar to what Dennis shared:
The Straits Times Apr 22, 2012
SMALL CHANGE
Don't go chasing stock tips
To make money, learn the traits of successful investors instead
By Goh Eng Yeow
At the inaugural Sunday Times Invest Seminar held recently, speaker Lim Say Boon, chief investment officer of DBS Private Bank, remarked on how difficult it was to make money in the current uncertain market environment.
'If it were so easy to make money, I would not be here working on a Saturday,' he told the 600-strong audience on April 14.
It is a view shared by many in the audience - risk-averse investors like myself, who would like to enjoy a better return than the paltry 0.05 per cent interest we get on our POSB accounts, but are unwilling to put our hard-earned nest eggs at risk.
I mingled with the crowd after the seminar, and the recurring theme was an almost obsessive search for safe-haven assets. I was also flattered that some of the participants were keen to find out what I had invested in. 'Will you be buying the new Genting perpetual securities?' one of them asked.
Sure, I have covered the financial sector for almost 25 years, but even I have had my fair share of hits and misses among my investments.
But one piece of advice I want to offer is that, rather than focusing on specific stock tips, people should consider the traits of a successful investor.
One of the perks of being a markets writer that I have enjoyed is the opportunity to meet a number of investing geniuses over the years.
One thing that struck me is how ordinary they were. None of them seemed exceptionally clever, like the brilliant physicists and mathematicians I met at Cambridge University during my undergraduate days. Some of the investors did not seem to be very competitive, or even driven by the desire to make money.
Perhaps it was their other interests that turned them into such great investors, as they did not get distracted by the roller-coaster that hits the market from time to time. In fact, many of them did not even bother to track the market on a daily basis.
But they shared a common trait: All of them seemed to be at peace with themselves and the world, enjoying happy marriages and blissful family lives.
As investors, they also knew their limits. They would not be chasing after shares whose prices had already risen during a super bull run.
But when the blood was out on the street and the world seemed to be on the verge of collapsing, as it did in September 2008 when US investment bank Lehman Brothers failed, they would be out there, making big wagers on the market.
One other important trait they possessed was the ability not to miss the wood for the trees. Good investors go about life with their eyes open.
While others were chasing the latest hot stock tip tossed out by their brokers and analysts, they would be observing consumer habits and making careful notes of any trend that might be evolving.
And rather than taking analyst reports at face value, they would test the assumptions made in the reports with their first-hand experience.
There is another thing that I have noticed about good investors: Most of them do not invest in stocks or financial instruments about which they do not possess a good understanding.
The best example is legendary investment guru Warren Buffett, whose former daughter-in-law, Ms Mary Buffett, has just come out with another best-seller, The Warren Buffett Stock Portfolio, which examines the 17 stocks that helped him to achieve his extraordinary wealth.
Mr Buffett's stock portfolio, she noted, is filled with counters with a 'durable competitive advantage' and 'predictability of earnings'.
Take Wrigley's chewing gum, one of Mr Buffett's core stock holdings. Even with the advent of the Internet, which has revolutionised the way people interact with one another, people will still chew gum.
The same investing principle applies to US retail giant Walmart Stores, another of Mr Buffett's core stock holdings.
This is a company where an investor can get a pulse of the business simply by strolling into the many department stores it operates. For us, the local corollary would be grocery giant Dairy Farm and supermarket operator Sheng Siong Group.
The key, of course, is to identify such businesses and make sure that you have the cash ready to buy into their shares when they are unfairly sold down during stock market turmoil, which now occurs with distressing regularity.
It is a simple rule often articulated by Mr Buffett: Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.
engyeow@sph.com.sg
Re: Fundamental Analysis or Technical Analysis, which is bet
Fundamentals of a Stock is very important, if the fundamentals are solid, typically the share price is quite solid too.
That's why you must learn how to do Fundamental Analysis. Many Stock seminars out there only teach Technical Analysis, it means they only teach you to look at stocks with 1 eye. While I teach both, I teach you to look and analyse stocks with Both eyes (FA and TA).
Look at Metro, as mentioned, when sale proceeds of Metro Beijing comes in, it would have 50 cents per share in Cash (yes, after deducting all liabilities). Its share price now is 76 cents and 1 month ago before market correction was about 77 cents, just down 1 cent, or down 1.3%.
On the other hand, if you compare, many other stocks have fallen by 10% to as much as 30% in the last month or so.
However, if the entire market Crash, even fundamentally strong stocks will fall as well, but if Metro shares ever falls to close to 50 cents, I would grab as many as I can, since it means that I get to "partially own" all its properties for FREE.
Note: it's NAV is about S$1.23, less 50 cents, means NAV of its other assets is S$0.73...all these assets are almost free if share price is close to 50 cents.
That's why you must learn how to do Fundamental Analysis. Many Stock seminars out there only teach Technical Analysis, it means they only teach you to look at stocks with 1 eye. While I teach both, I teach you to look and analyse stocks with Both eyes (FA and TA).
Look at Metro, as mentioned, when sale proceeds of Metro Beijing comes in, it would have 50 cents per share in Cash (yes, after deducting all liabilities). Its share price now is 76 cents and 1 month ago before market correction was about 77 cents, just down 1 cent, or down 1.3%.
On the other hand, if you compare, many other stocks have fallen by 10% to as much as 30% in the last month or so.
However, if the entire market Crash, even fundamentally strong stocks will fall as well, but if Metro shares ever falls to close to 50 cents, I would grab as many as I can, since it means that I get to "partially own" all its properties for FREE.
Note: it's NAV is about S$1.23, less 50 cents, means NAV of its other assets is S$0.73...all these assets are almost free if share price is close to 50 cents.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Re: Fundamental Analysis or Technical Analysis, which is bet
Based on FA, I will NOT buy Sheng Siong.
Trading or investing based on TA alone is like seeing the world with 1 eye, why not see the world with Both eyes? Learn both FA and TA.
FA helps me choose WHAT stocks to buy/avoid/sell, TA helps me decide WHEN to buy/hold/sell.
Trading or investing based on TA alone is like seeing the world with 1 eye, why not see the world with Both eyes? Learn both FA and TA.
FA helps me choose WHAT stocks to buy/avoid/sell, TA helps me decide WHEN to buy/hold/sell.
robinhan wrote:Sheng siong(buy when price reach 0.465, sell to stop loss at 0.45)formed an uptrend in the past 1 and a half month. Recently, it dropped to the support trendline already. We can see that the pull back ratio is 50%, a very nice figure for consolidation. And we can also see that the volume of pull back is quite low. If it go higher than Friday high, it is likely to continue it’s uptrend and give an opportunity to long.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Re: Fundamental Analysis or Technical Analysis, which is bet
Have you ever lost money in stock investing?
Have you sold a stock only to see the price shooting up much higher after you sold?
Have you ever bought a stock only to see the price falling drastically after you bought?
In 1998, during the Asian Financial Crisis, I lost half of all my savings, yes 50% of it in the stock markets. At that time I don't know anything about Technical Analysis (TA), otherwise, I would have been able to base on some TA indicators to sell my stocks and avoided the "heart pain" losses.
Are there ways to determine when prices are likely to fall down, so that you can avoid buying high? Are there ways to determine when prices are likely to go up so that you can avoid selling low?
Do you know How to decide When to Buy and When to Sell a stock , not by luck, not by listening to rumours and with no need to analyse complicated Financial Statements?
If you do not know how to reliably determine when to buy or sell your shares or financial instruments, then you should attend this "Learning How Technical Analysis can reduce Loss and increase Gains" workshop. The good news is this Workshop is FREE and teaches you how to use one method in Technical Analysis to enable to you time the market so that you can make make money without having to suffer any big risk.
During this free workshop, you will be taught:
- How to know the right time to buy or sell your shares/financial instruments
- How to make money amidst uncertainties in the market
- How to make money even when prices are falling
Date: 18 Jul 2012
Time: 7:30 to 10:00pm (Registration starts from 7pm)
Venue: 9 Penang Road #13-15 Park Mall Singapore 238459
Fees: FREE workshop.
Speaker: Hui Yip Khiong (a trusted friend I know since year 1990 in my first year studying in Accountancy.
Seats are limited, to reserve your seat(s), please email your name and mobile number to taseminar@masteryourfinance.com
About the Speaker: Hui Yip Khiong
Yip Khiong is an Accountant by training and has been a keen learner of Technical Analysis from many teachers. He has founded TradeWizdom to share what he has learned through much listening, reading, thinking, practice and teaching in the field of Technical Analysis.
Since two years ago, he has been teaching the TA segment of Dennis Ng’s Secrets To Making Money in Stocks seminar.
Best regards,
Dennis Ng, co-founder of Wealth Directions Pte Ltd
http://www.WealthDirections.Asia
Have you sold a stock only to see the price shooting up much higher after you sold?
Have you ever bought a stock only to see the price falling drastically after you bought?
In 1998, during the Asian Financial Crisis, I lost half of all my savings, yes 50% of it in the stock markets. At that time I don't know anything about Technical Analysis (TA), otherwise, I would have been able to base on some TA indicators to sell my stocks and avoided the "heart pain" losses.
Are there ways to determine when prices are likely to fall down, so that you can avoid buying high? Are there ways to determine when prices are likely to go up so that you can avoid selling low?
Do you know How to decide When to Buy and When to Sell a stock , not by luck, not by listening to rumours and with no need to analyse complicated Financial Statements?
If you do not know how to reliably determine when to buy or sell your shares or financial instruments, then you should attend this "Learning How Technical Analysis can reduce Loss and increase Gains" workshop. The good news is this Workshop is FREE and teaches you how to use one method in Technical Analysis to enable to you time the market so that you can make make money without having to suffer any big risk.
During this free workshop, you will be taught:
- How to know the right time to buy or sell your shares/financial instruments
- How to make money amidst uncertainties in the market
- How to make money even when prices are falling
Date: 18 Jul 2012
Time: 7:30 to 10:00pm (Registration starts from 7pm)
Venue: 9 Penang Road #13-15 Park Mall Singapore 238459
Fees: FREE workshop.
Speaker: Hui Yip Khiong (a trusted friend I know since year 1990 in my first year studying in Accountancy.
Seats are limited, to reserve your seat(s), please email your name and mobile number to taseminar@masteryourfinance.com
About the Speaker: Hui Yip Khiong
Yip Khiong is an Accountant by training and has been a keen learner of Technical Analysis from many teachers. He has founded TradeWizdom to share what he has learned through much listening, reading, thinking, practice and teaching in the field of Technical Analysis.
Since two years ago, he has been teaching the TA segment of Dennis Ng’s Secrets To Making Money in Stocks seminar.
Best regards,
Dennis Ng, co-founder of Wealth Directions Pte Ltd
http://www.WealthDirections.Asia
Cheers!
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
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- Investing Mentor
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Re: Fundamental Analysis or Technical Analysis, which is bet
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