Hu Li Yang

[ein55]

I think I have probably shared these points before in another thread on STI = 4782, was answering to Dennis or someone's question before.

HLY 1.2 (upside) and 0.8 (downside) is only applicable for bull market during upward trend, assuming the price or index moves up in the form of channel, the height of this box is about 20%. From investor psychology point of view, it can be explained as +20% is high enough to take profit, while -20% is low enough to attract value investors.

For bear market, we need to apply 50% or 25% rule, pls refer to his books.

If we blindly follow HLY's rule, we may think it is purely TA or even absurd to have these rules. If we think deeper, it can link with investor psychology and other theories. To him, he wants to make his teaching simpler by using simple guidelines.

For me, I don't blindly accept anyone's teaching, either HLY, Dennis, Prof Chan, Warren Buffett... I will do my own tests. Hope the new graduates can do the same too.

[ein55]

It seems like STI is back to early Sep 2010, about 2 years ago. This is my "sleeping investor theory", see STI = 4782 thread, someone could sleep for 2 year and wake up to be in the same situation, this is how bull market may be as long as 5 - 6 years, because it has multiple corrections along the way, helping to lengthen the bull market: several mini bears within a bigger bull. When QE2 was emerging, it just broke 3000 points after fluctuating between 2700-3000. Now it is about the same situation, except replace QE2 by emerging QE3 and ECB/LTRO (as if carrot hanging in front to attract the bull). Despite no positive news this week, STI and world market still perform quite well, a positive sign. If up trend continues for index, penny stocks may catch up by end of this year, similar behavior as Jan 2011. History may not repeat itself but it is a good reference...

S.E.A. stocks are well supported, STI is lagging, now catching up. STI is above 3000 for 5 days, strong resistance has become new support. For trend rider who buys at 3200/3300 or even 3400 (when bull is confirmed), may suffer in next major correction (may be back to 3000, potential of 0.8X).... eg, another "bad news" on Greece or PIIGS. If buy/sell using wrong pair of MA or price/MA, likely will buy high sell low, because when the trend is confirmed by TA, sometimes it is too late, has become a "news".

[ein55]

Generally, 4 speakers of share investment conference yesterday view QE3 positively. The latest conference audience survey (about 500 people) showing about 25% thinking now is bull market, 25% feels it is bear market, 50% unsure (i.e. could be flat market). This is a big difference compared to last Nov when I conducted the mentor session (about 100 people), most people felt it will be a bear market. It will be interesting to ask this question again in coming Nov session. This will help to know the exit time. When most people think it is/will be bullish, it will be time to plan for exit, but I think STI has to > 4000 first to reach this state.

Intesting sharing by HLY yesterday in share conference on Viagra Effect of QE on economy (one has to take it regularly to be effective but when it is lost one day, effect/confidence may be gone). He reconfirms next 1.5 - 2 years will be safe for stock market. Based on his 1.2x theory, next high of STI will be 3000 x 1.2 = 3600. This is quite aligned with my earlier estimation (3500 - 3600) of next mid term rally (based on QE2 experience). He also feels after QE2, 2nd half of bull market has started (but Prof Chan still needs to wait for his "Chan's Channel' plot to over 50% line for confirmation).

HLY said stock market reflects/leads economy, while most of the traditional economists say economy reflects/leads stock market. Personally I think it should be 2-way interaction (they could affect each other), but generally longer term trend of stock market (eg. 6 months later) should be linked to leading economy indicators (similar to PMI, future orders, etc), while short term (eg. within 3 months) trend of stock market are still influenced by current / past economy data (eg. GDP, unemployment rate, news, etc).

[obokchuan]

dear all:
now i really respect hu li yang his foresight . He is right , euro soverign debt problems are not serious.

[ngtfook]

dear all:
now i really respect hu li yang his foresight . He is right , euro soverign debt problems are not serious.

I don't know what to say!

[obokchuan]

i also agree with dennis teaching " If i am wrong am i financially ok. He never said he is right forever.

[ein55]

Summary by Augustine of Amfraser on recent HLY seminar:

Hu Li Yang was here in Singapore for a seminar on 12 Jan 2013 from 0900am to 1230pm. As always he started by introducing himself and how accurate he has been for the past two years while he is in Singapore. And he maintains his stance that the market is poised to move up further.

A interesting point that he mentioned during the seminar, the organizer requested that he comment about the European debt crisis and the US fiscal cliff, he jokingly answered, do you think the prime minister of Spain has a solution on how to solve the European debt crisis, what about the prime minister of Greece or Italy. He continues by saying that such problems are not for us to solve, or we are not able to predict the consequences, but if you know there is an inherent problem, you will find solution to solve it.

The market in generally will continue to rise, for 2 main reasons. The interest environment is still low; the market is flooded with money. He jokes that if you open your window, you will see US$ 2 trillion hovering up in the sky, looking for places to invest. The second reason is that money is flowing into the financial market (Equity and bonds). There are increase activities in the bond market. Also, the property market, commodities markets are all in a down trend. With all these in mind, the equity market or the stock market is poised for a good year.

Hu Li Yang is bearish on GOLD and Oil. All the talk about the goodness of oil or the lack of oil in the ground is results of what he calls MEDIA EFFECTS (ME). The ME blows up the matter, and yes they may be true is their reports, but all those that want to buy will have already bought and you are probably the last leg in the baton run. Likewise for property, he feels that property in generally will not have too much upside, but also believes that the downside is limited, it is unlikely the property market will crash. The STI index is now trading in a Box, it is likely that the index will trade between 3000 to 3300. If we hit 3000, we should BUY. For whatever reason and for whatever to happen, should the index fall to 2700, heaven is giving you money, BUY. But he feels that it is unlikely it will happen this year, so anything below 3000 is already GOD Sent. The STI Index should it break the 3300 mark, it will move up to 3600 points. He also predicts that for the whole year, there would be two buying opportunities.

He call this the second half of the Bull Run, you need to buy stocks that are in focus, stocks with theme. 涨时重势，跌时重值。 Meaning to say, when the stocks floored, you buy stocks of higher fundamentalquality, when stocks are rising, look for those who are moving strongly. He goes on to explain how we should manage our stocks.

Rattle snake theory: People who trade the market need to cultivate a rattle snake character. Firstly, RS do not eat on a daily basis; you should not trade on a daily basis as well. When the RS spot a prey, RS will patiently observe the prey and watch for the prey pattern and movement, and when the opportunity comes, you should strike the prey hard and do not let go until you get the whole prey. When we buy a stock, and if we got it correctly, say we buy the stock at S$10, do not sell away at S$12, and be patient to wait for the stock to rise, and act on it accordingly to its movement. Also, to make money, you need to have 1 or 2 stock which you buy big or you put 80% of your money in it, and not take part in many small trades, such cases will not be profitable in the market.

[candy_chia]

Hi ein55,

Thank you for your generosity in sharing this article as well as taking your time to conduct the captivating mentoring session yesterday.

Could I just clarify below phrase by Hu Li Yang,

"the second half of the Bull Run, you need to buy stocks that are in focus, stocks with theme. 涨时重势，跌时重值。"


Can we interpret the" stocks with theme" as those counters that are being "promoted regularly" in the analyst reports?

For instance:
1) NAV play - CapitaLand; CapitaMalls Asia; Ho Bee; Keppel Land; Wing Tai
2) Privatisation plays - Hotel Properties; United Engineers
3) Yield Play- Ascendas REIT; CapitaMall Trust; Starhill Global
3) Bottomed Out Cyclical Sectors, namely Offshore & Marine, Shipping, Aviation and Commodities


P/S: Not looking for stock recommendation advice.

Summary by Augustine of Amfraser on recent HLY seminar:

Hu Li Yang was here in Singapore for a seminar on 12 Jan 2013 from 0900am to 1230pm. As always he started by introducing himself and how accurate he has been for the past two years while he is in Singapore. And he maintains his stance that the market is poised to move up further.

He call this the second half of the Bull Run, you need to buy stocks that are in focus, stocks with theme. 涨时重势，跌时重值。

Meaning to say,

~~~ when the stocks FLOORED,==> you buy stocks of HIGHER FUNDAMENTAL Quality,
~~~~ when stocks are RISING, ===> look for those who are MOVING STRONGLY.

He goes on to explain how we should manage our stocks.

Rattle snake theory:

- People who trade the market need to cultivate a rattle snake character.

- Firstly, RS do not eat on a daily basis; you should not trade on a daily basis as well.
- When the RS spot a prey, RS will patiently observe the prey and watch for the prey pattern and movement, and when the opportunity comes, you should strike the prey hard and do not let go until you get the whole prey.

- When we buy a stock, and if we got it correctly, say we buy the stock at S$10, do not sell away at S$12, and be PATIENT to Wait for the stock to Rise, and Act on it accordingly to its movement.

- Also, to make money,you need to have 1 or 2 stock which you BUY BIG or you Put 80% of your money in it, and not take part in many small trades, such cases will not be profitable in the market.

[ein55]

Hi Candy,

I have attended quite many talks of HLY (to me, sometimes I know over 90% of his presentation before attending - including his regular jokes, mostly are repeated or similar to his books, but it is good to hear his explanation), reading his books/blog, but I cannot assure I fully understand every of his words. Here are my understanding (quite similar to yours):

Bull market (esp 2nd half), focusing on TA, following the trend (eg. those penny stocks which could rise 50% in a few weeks) with strong momentum. These stocks may have a theme, eg 2012 was "REITS" related, a few years ago was S-chips, then it could be "Commodity", etc. In short, each sector or industry or certain theme (eg. region - China/HK or US), will have its time for strong rally, focusing on those stocks. For HLY, he seldom analyzed individual stock, usually focusing on major trend of region or sectors.

For bear market, prefer defensive stocks (eg. blue chips with strong FA), if needed, change horse from TA-focused to FA-focused.

HLY is mainly a TA guy with mid to long term vision. He believes price is a reflection of value.

[candy_chia]

Hu Li Yang provides some pointers on how to survive in a bull market:[/u]

胡立阳：牛市行情遇上超跌 要把握捡便宜的机会
2011年06月16日16:37腾讯财经[微博]胡立阳


牛市行情遇上超跌，要把握捡便宜的机会
when there is steep correction in a bull market, you need to seize the opportunity to accumulate fundamentally strong counters.

股市长期下跌，很多投资者都干脆不看行情了，或许是眼不见心净嘛。
when stock market continue to slide, majority of the investors will either ignore the situation or give up monitoring the stock market movement.

但其实想要在股市中出人头地，永远都要记得，只有在行情低迷的时候，你才有可能捡到由别人手中丢出来的便宜股票。

(However, to emerge as the Ultimate Winner in stock market. we need to bear in mind that you could only purchase stocks at bargain prices disposed by the fearful investors, when despondency befall the market. )


现在若是不敢低买，将来怎么会有机会高卖呢？脚步一开始就要走对。

(One needs to undertake the right step by Courageously BUY equity at LOW Prices in a choatic market, else do you think you will be able to SELL HIGH in the future (when market surge again)?)

尤其是股市的底部总是会在大家都不再关心行情的时候，静悄悄地又出现了。那么，底部究竟是在什么地方呢？目前不还是在牛市中吗？怎么指数跌掉了一大截呢？


股市由熊转牛，进行中常会因涨多而出现大大小小的回调，

(When Stock market makes the transistion from Bear to Bull, it is usually characterised with Minor and Major corrections. )


这些拉回幅度常都是在10%~15%的范围之内，极为正常，无需过度担心。


(Generally, when the corrections Fall within 10% to 15% range, one does not need to be overly worried.)

但常常大盘在回调的过程中，恰巧又遇上一连串的突发利空，再眼见国际股市也是暴跌不已，总会令买在高档的投资者心生恐惧，纷纷甩卖，造成指数进一步下跌。请注意，密集的利空又会为大家带来机会，一个捡便宜的大好机会。


我在研究许多新兴股市由熊转牛之后的变化时，又发现了一个宝贵的统计现象：只要还是在牛市中，指数一旦落到这一波反弹行情的中枢点位以下，都是捡便宜的好机会。

上证指数这一波是由1664点的底部开始反弹，2009年8月最高曾来到3478点，将这两个数字加起来除以2，就是2571点，在这个点位之下，都是底部区域。但必须强调，我指的是“底部区域”，而不是“底部点位”，要逢底慢慢去做投资布局，而不要只想一次就抄底成功，没有人能幸运买在最低点位的！

统计数据除了极为方便实用之外，最重要的是，它可以为我们提供进退的依据。

再举一个例子。我认识这么一位投资者，他虽强调自己不喜欢炒短线，比较热衷“波段操作”。但奇怪的是，他的“波段”投资成绩并不理想，总是选错了买点，而且赔了钱还死抱不放。原因是他根本不了解“波段”的定义。

统计结果显示，波段行情大都要在“周线连三红”之后才会出现，平均的长度是3~5个月，

绝对不是随时买进、抱得越久就一定赚得越多。即使是做波段，也要知所进退啊！

http://finance.qq.com/a/20110616/004674.htm

[candy_chia]

Hi ein55 & all HLY experts,

Could anyone explain what Hu Li Yang is trying to imply:

" 只要还是在牛市中，指数一旦落到这一波反弹行情的中枢点位以下，都是捡便宜的好机会。"

and

"统计结果显示，波段行情大都要在“周线连三红”之后才会出现，平均的长度是3~5个月"

胡立阳：牛市行情遇上超跌 要把握捡便宜的机会
2011年06月16日16:37腾讯财经[微博]胡立阳

我在研究许多新兴股市由熊转牛之后的变化时，又发现了一个宝贵的统计现象：只要还是在牛市中，指数一旦落到这一波反弹行情的中枢点位以下，都是捡便宜的好机会。

上证指数这一波是由1664点的底部开始反弹，2009年8月最高曾来到3478点，将这两个数字加起来除以2，就是2571点，在这个点位之下，都是底部区域。但必须强调，我指的是“底部区域”，而不是“底部点位”，要逢底慢慢去做投资布局，而不要只想一次就抄底成功，没有人能幸运买在最低点位的！

统计数据除了极为方便实用之外，最重要的是，它可以为我们提供进退的依据。

再举一个例子。我认识这么一位投资者，他虽强调自己不喜欢炒短线，比较热衷“波段操作”。但奇怪的是，他的“波段”投资成绩并不理想，总是选错了买点，而且赔了钱还死抱不放。原因是他根本不了解“波段”的定义。

统计结果显示，波段行情大都要在“周线连三红”之后才会出现，平均的长度是3~5个月，

绝对不是随时买进、抱得越久就一定赚得越多。即使是做波段，也要知所进退啊！

http://finance.qq.com/a/20110616/004674.htm

[ein55]

Hi Candy:

" 只要还是在牛市中，指数一旦落到这一波反弹行情的中枢点位以下，都是捡便宜的好机会。"

This is his 50% mid-point theory. Eg, last rally for STI is around 2950 to 3250, mid point will be 3100, possible support before next rally. In my opinion, this is related to investor psychology....

and

"统计结果显示，波段行情大都要在“周线连三红”之后才会出现，平均的长度是3~5个月"

It means 3 consecutive weekly gain (see weekly candle chart) to confirm the rally. Each mid "market cycle" is around 3-5 months. So, he said there are probably 2 entry points to market for this year (12 months).

[candy_chia]

Hi ein55,

Thank you for your thorough explanation on my earlier.

Would appreciate you could kindly explain the following article stated in Hu Li Yang's blog. Really too confusing for me.

A股出现趋势翻多信号
2012-12-18 06:40

世界最大证券公司美林证券第一位华人副总裁胡立阳（微博)日前在微博上表示，A股出现趋势翻多信号！

在长期观察全球12个主要新兴股市过去20年来大起大落的走势中，到行情翻多常会依序出现五项初期信号，而A股走势目前正完全吻合。

第一，对利空逐渐无感，对利好反应热烈。

第二，股市连续两周，无论是上涨天数、点数与成交量都开始出现一股作气的强涨气势。

第三，指数的“10日移动平均线”翻上。

第四，周线出现连两红，“10周移动平均线”翻上。

第五，指数“3月移动平均线”开始翻红。

http://finance.qq.com/a/20121218/001212.htm

[ein55]

Hi Candy,

One of the problems with reading HLY theories/articles is to understand the Chinese financial terms. Somehow he only conducted Chinese seminars (although he has stayed in US during his early years, English is quite good), some English-speaking investors may not know him well.

Here are my interpretation (some are my own views):

第一，对利空逐渐无感，对利好反应热烈。
Reacting positively to good news, but "no feeling" to bad news. This is usually a sign when bear market (eg. SSEC) is reaching its bottom. It is related to investor psychology, those who sell will sell, those who hold will not sell no matter how bad is the news.

第二，股市连续两周，无论是上涨天数、点数与成交量都开始出现一股作气的强涨气势。
2 weekly gain (inc number of days with gain, index points, volumes), forming a strong TA trend.


第三，指数的“10日移动平均线”翻上。
10 day MA is turning upward. HLY likes 10 day MA and 50 day MA very much, through his past observations of "12 global markets".

第四，周线出现连两红，“10周移动平均线”翻上。
Same as No 3 + 4.

第五，指数“3月移动平均线”开始翻红。
3 month MA is ganing or turning positive. 3 month is around 60 day, close to his favorite 50 day MA to judge the "heart beat" or ECG of a stock,


If there is sufficient interest, I could extract some of HLY impotant theories and present in future talk. HLY is a very TA person, there are many "rules", half way between a trader and an investor, we need to moderate in usage of his methods.

[candy_chia]

Hi ein55,

Thank you for your kind and thorough explanation. Chinese financial terms is one area that I need to work on.

Hi Candy,

One of the problems with reading HLY theories/articles is to understand the Chinese financial terms. Somehow he only conducted Chinese seminars (although he has stayed in US during his early years, English is quite good), some English-speaking investors may not know him well.

Here are my interpretation (some are my own views):

第一，对利空逐渐无感，对利好反应热烈。
Reacting positively to good news, but "no feeling" to bad news.This is usually a sign when bear market (eg. SSEC) is reaching its bottom. It is related to investor psychology, those who sell will sell, those who hold will not sell no matter how bad is the news.

第二，股市连续两周，无论是上涨天数、点数与成交量都开始出现一股作气的强涨气势。
2 weekly gain (inc number of days with gain, index points, volumes), forming a strong TA trend.


第三，指数的“10日移动平均线”翻上。
10 day MA is turning upward. HLY likes 10 day MA and 50 day MA very much, through his past observations of "12 global markets".

第四，周线出现连两红，“10周移动平均线”翻上。
Same as No 3 + 4.

第五，指数“3月移动平均线”开始翻红。
3 month MA is ganing or turning positive. 3 month is around 60 day, close to his favorite 50 day MA to judge the "heart beat" or ECG of a stock,


If there is sufficient interest, I could extract some of HLY impotant theories and present in future talk. HLY is a very TA person, there are many "rules", half way between a trader and an investor, we need to moderate in usage of his methods.