Prof Chan Yan Chong

[ein55]

Prof Chan is good in PA, I agree with many of his views, although the conspiracy theory is just a speculation.

Here is my interpretation of his article:

Buy strong uptrend stock (performing better than index, eg if index up by 10%, this group >10%), among this group, buy the laggard one (eg. for 15% to 100% rise, buying the one with 15% rise, lower end of the spectrum). He means to buy the laggard strong stocks, not the laggard weak stocks.

Personally I feel for laggard stocks (can be weak one, including shipping, or those with weak FA, etc), due to speculation effect, they will rise only when the index uptrend is fully confirmed. This may be the reason Prof Chan says to buy (or I shd say to speculate) these laggard stocks only when year 2007 peak for STI is reached (another 10% more to go, not far), because lots of speculation will come in when last peak is reached or during the euphoric stage. Based on my calculation, STI 4000 is only 75% optimism, so by right should not see euphoric stage until >4500.

Based on Ein55 style for world synchronization, eventually all the lagging and leading stocks and indices from all investing markets (stock, bond, etc) for most major countries, will merge together to form the some uptrends, before holding hands to fall down from the cliff together in an unknown future. So, it provides an opportunity for speculation of laggard stocks but the risk is very high, trading (instead of investing) method should be applied then. Personally I don't encourage speculation but one could consider buy a small % to enrich the experience.

[ein55]

Prof Chan has a special report/issue on Nikkei's sudden correction. Agreed that this is a typical case of speculation, quite similar to the last gold rush, only diff is Nikkei's long term trend is still up due to strong support (QE) of Japan gov.

In the last 6 months, Nikkei shoots up from 9000 to 15000, increasing by 6000 points. Now is only down by 1000 point, very reasonable, still has room to go down by 1000 more points (total = 1/3 correction) before new batch of investors willing to push it up to next high. If the speculation is severe (short selling), then it may go down further but if Japan gov is as strong as US Fed Reserve, no other big player can play with world's 2nd or 3rd largest economy.

[candy_chia]

Dr YC Chan - 2 September 2013 newsletter:

In May this year, US Federal Reserve started talking about withdrawing from the markets. Singapore stock market subsequently tumbled in June, rebounded in July, and fell again in August. The market trend inSingapore was similar to that in US, but its stock performance was worse than in US and Hong Kong stocks.

Lately, Singapore is in the midst of the so called new Asian financial crisis.

Indon rupiahs; Thai bahts; Malaysian ringgits and Philippino pesos and stock markets have fallen sharply. Singapore market is affected by what is happening to all these neigbouring countries as capital is being withdrawnfrom this region.

However, I do not think the recent so called Asian financial crisis would be as disastrous as in 1997.


理由是新加坡正处於近日的所谓新亚洲金融风暴的内眼，近一段日子，印尼盾、泰 国铢、马来西亚零吉、菲律宾比索的币值都大幅下跌，股市也下跌，这些国家全是新加坡的邻国，新加坡股市很自然地会受到影响，资金从这整个地区撤出。

不过，我不认为目前的所谓新的亚洲金融风暴会像 1997 年那样的惨烈，




The situation of the Asean countries and India is much better than it was in 1997. The values of the currencies of the Asean countries then were linked to US$. The economies of the Asean countries had been declining at the time whilst the US economy was booming. The US President Clinton was the first president who led the country to have budget surpluses since Wrold War II.

The exchange rate of the US$ to other major currencies appreciated; there was no reason for the values of the currencies of the comparatively weaker Asean countries to link to US$, thus opened up for the international crocodile George Soros to attack these currencies. Now the currencies of the Asean countries are free floating, with no internatinal crocodiles to snipe at. The recent fall of the currencies is a natural reaction, an orderly process without panic, a far cry from the tense situation when Indon President Suharto was being ousted then.

Besides, George soros learnt a lesson in 1998 from the then Malaysian Prime Mininster Mahathir Mohamad who immediately stopped free exchanges of Malaysian ringgits and banned Singapore from trading Malaysian stocks. All the international crocodiles’ deposits in Malaysia were freezed, and they suffered hefty losses as a result. Once beaten, twice shy, I believe these big crocodiles dare not over do it again; otherwise they might be trapped in thenet of their own making.

US stocks dipped further in August for fear of US market withdrawal bceome official in September.

There is nothing to worry about; it is going to happen sooner or later, in fact the sooner the better.


Market withdrawal offers a good OPPORTUNITY to Collect Stocks at Low levels.

退市是迟早要发生的事，早退好过迟退，退市正是趁低吸纳的好时机。





US will not withdraw from the markets before economic recovery, and will not do it to jeopardise its recovery. Thus, withdrawing from the markets is an indication of USeconomy is recovering and is therefore nothing to fear.

American soldiers might attack Syria was one of the reasons causing stock markets to fall in August.

But since 1991, Whenever US soldiers Went to War, the Stock markets went UP,



Dipped BEFORE the war started.

叙利亚可能遭到美军的攻击也是八月份股市下跌的理由之一，

但是，从 1991 年中东战争至今 ，每一次美军一出动，股市皆升，

跌市只是在战争未开始时才出现。

[candy_chia]

Dr YC Chan - 13 September 2013 newsletter:

I am an optimist, preferring to buy when everyone is calling for a sell because I have been proven to be correct during the Asian financial crisis, the recent Syria war as well as the management shakeout at PetroChina (HK: 0857).

President Xi Jinping has recently reassured investors that black sheep within the company will not affect the long-term fundamentals of a government-owned company of this magnitude. While some people have said that corruption within the company will erode profit, then the honest new management will probably be able to take the company to new heights.



It is only a matter of time before Quantitative Easing III ends hence it does not matter if the Fed does not start tapering in September because the uncertainty will continue to loom on October and beyond. Such uncertainties are very bad for the stock market in the long run.



Markets hate uncertainty because it is difficult to plan ahead with uncertainties abound.

http://www.sharesinv.com/articles/2013/ ... gs-column/

[candy_chia]

曾渊沧：美国联储局什么时候退市？
Dr YC Chan : When will US Fed start the tapering?

http://www.cnfol.com 2013年09月23日 13:34 中金在线港股　


多谢美国联邦储备局在中秋节送上一份厚礼给全世界持有股票的股民。

9月18日，美国联邦储备局的议息结果是不退市、不加息、也不减买债券，依然每月印钞850亿美元买债券。联邦储备局于去年年底推出的QE3，威力无穷，因为QE3是无限QE，第一次QE与第二次QE，都有一个固定的金额，而QE3则每月印钞，不停的印，一直到叫停，退市为止，因此今年第一季，美国股市创历史新高。

今年五月，美国联邦储备局开始谈退市，谈了四个月仍未退市。这一回，全世界都认为一定会退市，温和的退市，股市也为退市做足心理准备。美国道琼斯指数在开会前已很接近历史高位，投资者可以接受温和的退市，现在不退市了，结果当然是火上加油，道琼斯也就一口气再创历史新高，亢奋极了。

轮到香港开市，在中秋节，中国A股休息停市的日子，唯一影响香港股市的外来因素当然是美股。因此，香港恒生指数也大幅上升，站上23500点之上，升了385点。

美国今年退市机会不大
Probability of US Tapering this year is low.

亢奋之后，投资者当然会问：几时退市？今年十月？十二月？
Investors will definitely ask: When will be the tapering occur? It's October this year? Or December?

股市里有很多的大鳄不停地兴风作浪，因此，不必多久，几时退市就会成为新的话题，新的炒作课题。上周末，美股就开始出现调整了。

我自己估计，既然九月不退市，今年退市的机会不大了，而且就算退市，也一定是极温和的退市，温和的退市是股市可以接受的。

According to my estimation, the chance of Fed tapering this year is low since no tapering is being implemented in September.



Even though tapering occurs, it will be very mild, which is acceptable to the stock market.




这一次美国联邦储备局开会前夕，股市已上升，美股已接近历史高点。开会前夕，市场主流预测是会退市，温和的退市，从这个角度来看，美股今后的走势向好的机会很大。

现在我们应该关心的焦点应该是中国A股。


2008年11月，中国是全世界最早印钞票的国家，当年的4万亿基建，实际上就是中国式的QE。

到了2009年3月，美国才开始推出QE1，美国推出QE1之后，中国政府就开始观察自己的QE所带来的效果：经济复苏的很快，但是通胀，银行坏账等问题也开始浮现。结果，中国又成了全世界最早搞退市的国家。

中国式的退市没有打锣打鼓的进行，而是静静地通过人民银行收紧资金。

结果，中国股市从2009年年底就开始进入了一个长达3年半的下跌趋势。

今年六月上海综合指数第二次跌破2000点之后反弹，市场也开始感到了银证宽松了，连房地产的打压力道也轻了，人民银行再度放水，其中一个原因就是担心美国退市会影响中国的经济，现在美国不退市，人民银行可能会重新考量。

http://hkstock.cnfol.com/130923/132,136 ... 4,00.shtml

[candy_chia]

Cautionary tone by Dr Chan on investment in Malaysian properties.

曾渊沧专栏 2013 10 07

投资最忌盲目跟风
Herd Mentally is a taboo in investing

上周末受邀到新加坡参加一个投资讲座，期间到马六甲旅游，我已经20年没有到过马六甲，20年过去，马六甲基本上没变，旅客比以前多，是来自中国的旅客，由新加坡最西部过桥到柔佛，然后直上高速公路，车走近三小时，两旁见不到房屋，只有绵绵不绝的棕櫚园。

人人争住买要小心
Be Caution when Others are dashing to Buy.

近来，不少新加坡人热衷於投资马来西亚的房地產，投资讲座期间，许多人都问我相关的问题，

但是，当我见到由新加坡对岸的柔佛直到马六甲的路上，景观竟然20年不变，可见马来西亚经济发展速度的缓慢。
The slow economic growth of Malaysia is evidenced by no change in the scenery when I traveled on the road leading from Johor causeway to Malacca for a prolonged duration of 20 years.

近几年，新加坡房地產价格猛涨，银行利率太低，不少人持有一些现金不知道该投资甚麼，於是多家新加坡的房地產商就到新加坡的对岸开发房地產楼盘，然后在新加坡搞促销，吸引了一群群新加坡人抢着投资，

20年前，不少香港人也是如此抢着到深圳、樟木头，惠州投资房地產而亏了钱，可幸，20年过后的今天，深圳房地產市场终於起飞。
Similar phenomena occurred in Hong Kong 20 years ago where lots of Hongkongers lost money when investing in Shenzhen properties. Fortunately, Shenzhen properties price have leaped after 20 years.

投资之道，最忌一窝蜂的抢，人人争着抢购的投资项目一定要小心，
Herd Mentally or Blindly followed the crowd is a taboo in investing




小部份人可能在人人抢购的过程中快手快脚的炒卖掉，这些人赚了钱就吸引更多人加入抢购，

最后一批抢购者就成了音乐椅游戏中抢不到椅子的人，这是放诸四海皆準的基本投资原则。

但是，一群又一群的人往往因為看到有人赚了钱，自己不去赚就对不起自己，也就忘了甚麼是风险。
Human greed is kindled when witnessing more people earning money to the extend that one ignore the importance of RISK Management.




十一黄金周期间，香港H股偷步上升，要等到中国A股开市，才能确认过去一周H股的升势是不是还能持续。

http://investment-king.blogspot.sg/2013 ... _6467.html

[walkinepark]

Thanks for sharing.

During a recent gathering with a few malaysian friends (mostly from Johore), I mentioned about prospect of Iskandar properties..
the concerted reaction was a "cold laughter" (冷笑).

Not saying Iskandar properties will not work, but that's the reaction i got from them. Thread with care.

[danielcheng]

Only good for short term speculation, hit & run as there were no historical track record to base on for iskandar. There is also not much local domestic support for the pricing & imagine once the gov't change rules & say only can sell to locals or impose capital gain tax, no one can tell where is the support level. Just a personal view.

[ui21cn]

Another point to note:-

For Shenzen & HongKong, politically they are one (if not now, eventually they become one )

Singapore & Johor are in 2 different Sovereign countries. When need arises the political decision shall be to
"protect own turf first".

Guess, if one factor in "what if I am wrong, will I be financially OK ?" in your investment decision making process;
you would be able to sleep better

Rgds,
Wei Teck

[danielcheng]

"Najib introduces GST, raises property gain tax."
Looks like it came sooner than later. Now that the fishes have swam in, perhaps future measures will be even more targeted at foreigners.

Only good for short term speculation, hit & run as there were no historical track record to base on for iskandar. There is also not much local domestic support for the pricing & imagine once the gov't change rules & say only can sell to locals or impose capital gain tax, no one can tell where is the support level. Just a personal view.

[candy_chia]

Dr YC Chan - October 2013 newsletter dated 1 Nov 2013: