Hu Li Yang
Moderators: alvin, learner, Dennis Ng
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- Investing Mentor
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Re: Hu Li Yang
"正常人"在股市中是赚不到銭的,
你必须与大多数人背道而驰- 胡立阳
"To be Successful in stock market, you need to be Extraordinary!
AVOID Herd Mentality."
- Hu Li Yang
胡立阳-股市教父-做股市中的“异常人”
http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTAzMDM4MDAw.html
你必须与大多数人背道而驰- 胡立阳
"To be Successful in stock market, you need to be Extraordinary!
AVOID Herd Mentality."
- Hu Li Yang
胡立阳-股市教父-做股市中的“异常人”
http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTAzMDM4MDAw.html
Re: Hu Li Yang
Recent interview of Hu Liyang on market outlook, he advises readers to be cautious of stock market.
http://www.sharesinv.com/articles/2013/ ... ut-stocks/
A few weeks ago, he also gave warning that BOTH bond market and stock market will fall in 2nd half of this year.
http://finance.qq.com/a/20130408/001557.htm
------------------------------------------------------------------
Here are my personal views and analysis:
HLY has been very positive on stock market in the past few years, however, after the introduction of QE3 in late 2012, he has been cautious on the long term effectiveness of this tool (see his earlier article on "viagra effect"), esp he worries when the interest rate starts to rise, the markets (bond, stock, property...) may not be able to take it.
As an investing educator, he does his job to warn the investors on the increasing risks. However, I feel it does not mean it is time to sell and exit from the stock market. He simply means at this stage (US stock over 50% optimism, set historical high; other major regional markets also about to set new high...), the upside of stock market is about the same as downside, any entry to investment market should be performed during correction (eg. gold) and has to watch out the dynamic mid-term trend.
HLY feels in the long term, higher interest rate may turn the direction of economy growth, affecting the stock market. I only agree partially as I feel the increase in interest rate (one day, could be 1-3 years from now) will only be introduced gradually when the economy is significantly stronger. Any increase will be viewed both positively (economy is strong, therefore rate can be increased) and negatively (long term outlook is bad), but economy and stock market should still continue to grow for some time. This is due to the momentum effect, any brake will not take effect immediately, it will follow its mega trend for some time. Eg, during bear market, any cut of interest rate (esp 0.25% each time) will not change the downturn immediately, but it will change its mega direction one day, when combined with other stimulus (eg. gov funding, QE, etc).
I also agree with HLY that gradual growth of US economy may not be a bad news as it ensures a steady growth, bubbles will not formed easily. The mid-term worry is US stock market has outperformed the world stock market, eg. S&P will challenge 1600 level soon, when stock market rises too fast (esp ahead economy by too much), it may be corrected significantly later, this is probably HLY predicts stock market will fall in 2nd half of this year, but he did not say this is a mega bear, nor this is a mini bear (perhaps this will give some flexibility to his prediction). Personally, I think there will be another correction <15% for US stock market (at least 1-2 times each year) if it continues to grow at the current phase. At higher level, the index will fluctuate a lot. Eg. when S&P is at 1000 point, +/-10% is only 100 points, but at 1600 point, +/- 10% will be 160 points. Similarly, when STI is above 3500 point, 15% correction could mean 500 point difference in just a few months, not many investors could take this risk easily, although its 90% optimism level is above 4500 point.
In short, world stock market including STI has or will go beyond 50% optimism level, risk is getting higher with each rise. However, it does not mean we should sell all the stock immediately. My suggestion is to use the % optimism to estimate the % cash (meaning opportunity fund, after keep some cash for emergency use) vs % stock investment (assuming this is the only investment market):
Eg:
At 50% optimism, keep 50% cash, 50% investment in stock (or all other investment linked to economy or market cycle)
At 75% optimism, keep 75% cash, 25% investment in stock (or all other investment linked to economy or market cycle)
At 90% optimism, keep 90% cash, 10% investment in stock (or all other investment linked to economy or market cycle)
(in practice, one may totally exit at 90% optimism, or keep 10% investment if want to speculate the euphoric stage)
Similarly, when market goes bearish one day, we can use similar approach to increase %investment with lower optimism level. Eg.
At 25% optimism, keep 25% cash, 75% investment in stock (or all other investment linked to economy or market cycle)
It means, at 75% market optimism, one should have sold at least 50% stocks. This is aligned with 50/50 method, sell 50% at intermediate high (take profit using mid-term market cycle) while keep 50% for longer investment (longer term market cycle or value investing).
STI is catching up recently, breaking the 3200-3300 mega resistance, 20% mid-term upside is possible (next mega resistance will be 3800-4000, last market cycle peak), this could be the target for 75% optimism. At the same time, if US market contiues to rise, it could reach its 75% optimism level faster (Eg. S&P500 around 1700), then the rest of the laggard market (including STI) may be corrected earlier, even they have not achieved their respective 75% optimism level.
As long as US/Japan/EU/China continue to support QE or not to tighten the monetary policy, the momentum of economy growth should continue for 1-3 years or even longer. The time when interest rate is first increased by US, market will be corrected, but it should recover again to last for a period of time, until when most people feel positive interest rate can be justified, then it will fall unknowingly one day like year 2000 and 2007. QE should help Japan and US for the next 1 year, although it is not a long-term solution but speculation (due to overflow of cash) will lift up the market. China follows more cautious approach, but the stock market will have at least an intermediate bull (SSEC over 3000 level) before it could fall with the rest of the world market one day. The China leaders will introduce more stimulus if 7.5% GDP target cannot be achieved.
In short, I feel the bull market will not end soon but those who remains in the market, need to have some strategies to deal with the possible volatility in future. If not, it is not a bad idea to take the next possible exit.
http://www.sharesinv.com/articles/2013/ ... ut-stocks/
A few weeks ago, he also gave warning that BOTH bond market and stock market will fall in 2nd half of this year.
http://finance.qq.com/a/20130408/001557.htm
------------------------------------------------------------------
Here are my personal views and analysis:
HLY has been very positive on stock market in the past few years, however, after the introduction of QE3 in late 2012, he has been cautious on the long term effectiveness of this tool (see his earlier article on "viagra effect"), esp he worries when the interest rate starts to rise, the markets (bond, stock, property...) may not be able to take it.
As an investing educator, he does his job to warn the investors on the increasing risks. However, I feel it does not mean it is time to sell and exit from the stock market. He simply means at this stage (US stock over 50% optimism, set historical high; other major regional markets also about to set new high...), the upside of stock market is about the same as downside, any entry to investment market should be performed during correction (eg. gold) and has to watch out the dynamic mid-term trend.
HLY feels in the long term, higher interest rate may turn the direction of economy growth, affecting the stock market. I only agree partially as I feel the increase in interest rate (one day, could be 1-3 years from now) will only be introduced gradually when the economy is significantly stronger. Any increase will be viewed both positively (economy is strong, therefore rate can be increased) and negatively (long term outlook is bad), but economy and stock market should still continue to grow for some time. This is due to the momentum effect, any brake will not take effect immediately, it will follow its mega trend for some time. Eg, during bear market, any cut of interest rate (esp 0.25% each time) will not change the downturn immediately, but it will change its mega direction one day, when combined with other stimulus (eg. gov funding, QE, etc).
I also agree with HLY that gradual growth of US economy may not be a bad news as it ensures a steady growth, bubbles will not formed easily. The mid-term worry is US stock market has outperformed the world stock market, eg. S&P will challenge 1600 level soon, when stock market rises too fast (esp ahead economy by too much), it may be corrected significantly later, this is probably HLY predicts stock market will fall in 2nd half of this year, but he did not say this is a mega bear, nor this is a mini bear (perhaps this will give some flexibility to his prediction). Personally, I think there will be another correction <15% for US stock market (at least 1-2 times each year) if it continues to grow at the current phase. At higher level, the index will fluctuate a lot. Eg. when S&P is at 1000 point, +/-10% is only 100 points, but at 1600 point, +/- 10% will be 160 points. Similarly, when STI is above 3500 point, 15% correction could mean 500 point difference in just a few months, not many investors could take this risk easily, although its 90% optimism level is above 4500 point.
In short, world stock market including STI has or will go beyond 50% optimism level, risk is getting higher with each rise. However, it does not mean we should sell all the stock immediately. My suggestion is to use the % optimism to estimate the % cash (meaning opportunity fund, after keep some cash for emergency use) vs % stock investment (assuming this is the only investment market):
Eg:
At 50% optimism, keep 50% cash, 50% investment in stock (or all other investment linked to economy or market cycle)
At 75% optimism, keep 75% cash, 25% investment in stock (or all other investment linked to economy or market cycle)
At 90% optimism, keep 90% cash, 10% investment in stock (or all other investment linked to economy or market cycle)
(in practice, one may totally exit at 90% optimism, or keep 10% investment if want to speculate the euphoric stage)
Similarly, when market goes bearish one day, we can use similar approach to increase %investment with lower optimism level. Eg.
At 25% optimism, keep 25% cash, 75% investment in stock (or all other investment linked to economy or market cycle)
It means, at 75% market optimism, one should have sold at least 50% stocks. This is aligned with 50/50 method, sell 50% at intermediate high (take profit using mid-term market cycle) while keep 50% for longer investment (longer term market cycle or value investing).
STI is catching up recently, breaking the 3200-3300 mega resistance, 20% mid-term upside is possible (next mega resistance will be 3800-4000, last market cycle peak), this could be the target for 75% optimism. At the same time, if US market contiues to rise, it could reach its 75% optimism level faster (Eg. S&P500 around 1700), then the rest of the laggard market (including STI) may be corrected earlier, even they have not achieved their respective 75% optimism level.
As long as US/Japan/EU/China continue to support QE or not to tighten the monetary policy, the momentum of economy growth should continue for 1-3 years or even longer. The time when interest rate is first increased by US, market will be corrected, but it should recover again to last for a period of time, until when most people feel positive interest rate can be justified, then it will fall unknowingly one day like year 2000 and 2007. QE should help Japan and US for the next 1 year, although it is not a long-term solution but speculation (due to overflow of cash) will lift up the market. China follows more cautious approach, but the stock market will have at least an intermediate bull (SSEC over 3000 level) before it could fall with the rest of the world market one day. The China leaders will introduce more stimulus if 7.5% GDP target cannot be achieved.
In short, I feel the bull market will not end soon but those who remains in the market, need to have some strategies to deal with the possible volatility in future. If not, it is not a bad idea to take the next possible exit.
Einstein: "Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler".
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-educat ... by-dr-tee/
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-educat ... by-dr-tee/
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- Platinum Forum Contributor
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- Joined: Fri Jan 29, 2010 2:42 pm
Re: Hu Li Yang
Article quoted from 新浪财经 2013年05月23日
台湾股神胡立阳:下半年可能美股重挫A股上冲
新浪财经讯 5月23日消息,亚太股市今日集体大跌,日本股市日经225指数收跌7%,截止14:30港股恒指跌幅超2%。有台湾股神之称的胡立阳对新浪财经表示,美股和美国国债下半年可能出现因为QE(量化宽松)结束的过山车及重挫,相反A股可能往上冲,跟美股形成跷跷板。
胡立阳称,今日亚太股市大跌表明全世界资本市场的神经都被美股牵着走。美股一个月来一路涨涨不休,像过山车一样往上爬,当越来越高时迟早要下来。而美股上下的原因就是量化宽松,市场对此心惊胆战。最近总听到消息称QE随时会结束。因此下半年美股将会像过山车一样吓人,真正的起伏将出现。
胡立阳还表示,美股为什么会涨涨不休,首先要了解资金的动态。最重要的就是通过美国10年期国债收益率来看资金状况。实际上国债收益率这个月一直往上至接近2%,几乎是今年来新高。国债收益率上升代表债券价格下跌。大家担心美国资金紧缩和加息。美国债券价格已跌一个月。资金在过去一个月从债券市场流入美股,因此道指涨涨不休。但如果美国QE结束,债券和股市将一样重挫。
当谈到A股时,胡立阳称他对A股不会过分担心,其他很多涨得多的国家股市才会被拉回。A股与美股联动少,目前仍处于低位区域,因此不会受太多牵连。不排除下半年出现美股下跌,A股出现往上冲的跷跷板走势,就想2008年四季度一样。香港的中资股还是沾着A股,所受的牵连也比较少。
胡立阳称对于美股,必须提防两个时间段。一个是过去20,30年间,美股6,7,8月回出现放暑假(熄火)行情,不排除重演下跌。另一个是10和11月。(晓峰)
台湾股神胡立阳:下半年可能美股重挫A股上冲
新浪财经讯 5月23日消息,亚太股市今日集体大跌,日本股市日经225指数收跌7%,截止14:30港股恒指跌幅超2%。有台湾股神之称的胡立阳对新浪财经表示,美股和美国国债下半年可能出现因为QE(量化宽松)结束的过山车及重挫,相反A股可能往上冲,跟美股形成跷跷板。
胡立阳称,今日亚太股市大跌表明全世界资本市场的神经都被美股牵着走。美股一个月来一路涨涨不休,像过山车一样往上爬,当越来越高时迟早要下来。而美股上下的原因就是量化宽松,市场对此心惊胆战。最近总听到消息称QE随时会结束。因此下半年美股将会像过山车一样吓人,真正的起伏将出现。
胡立阳还表示,美股为什么会涨涨不休,首先要了解资金的动态。最重要的就是通过美国10年期国债收益率来看资金状况。实际上国债收益率这个月一直往上至接近2%,几乎是今年来新高。国债收益率上升代表债券价格下跌。大家担心美国资金紧缩和加息。美国债券价格已跌一个月。资金在过去一个月从债券市场流入美股,因此道指涨涨不休。但如果美国QE结束,债券和股市将一样重挫。
当谈到A股时,胡立阳称他对A股不会过分担心,其他很多涨得多的国家股市才会被拉回。A股与美股联动少,目前仍处于低位区域,因此不会受太多牵连。不排除下半年出现美股下跌,A股出现往上冲的跷跷板走势,就想2008年四季度一样。香港的中资股还是沾着A股,所受的牵连也比较少。
胡立阳称对于美股,必须提防两个时间段。一个是过去20,30年间,美股6,7,8月回出现放暑假(熄火)行情,不排除重演下跌。另一个是10和11月。(晓峰)
Re: Hu Li Yang
It is nice meeting some of the graduates in investing fair today. Here are some of the main findings:
Hu LiYang - morning seminar
==========================
1) US stock market is too bullish with QE3 until its price >> value, not recommending to invest at all as US market is expected to come down by end of this year as QE3 will withdraw at the same time. He did not specifically say it is a mega turning point (to mega bear market) or just a major correction if it happens. He just warns all to be very careful (same as when he warned about gold before it surged to US$1900+), not to enter at this moment as the downside is more than upside. However, he did not mention whether those who hold should exit now from stock market.
2) However, he thinks China market is already at very low level, bullish if holding period is at least 2 years, opp from US market.
3) He agrees the US property market is still at its low level but if there is any rebound, may not be too high.
4) He observed US 10 year gov bond yield has gone up, therefore feel the interest rate must go up, which will kill the stock market.
5) He thinks the 12 years of money flooding in the world will end soon, all the markets will come down, including bond market and stock market, esp after US interest rate has increased.
More details of QE3 view are given in his blog:
http://huliyang.qzone.qq.com/
Kelvin Han
==========
1) This bull market has not ended yet as there is no "parabolic run" (euphoric stage) observed yet
Afternoon Panel (HLY and 3 other experts - Robin Han, Wang Zhi Long, Wong from FundSupermart)
=====================================
In average, Robin & Wong is bullish of the market outlook. HLY is bearish. Wong thinks it will be flat market, at least for gold.
Adam Khoo
==========
No specific outlook, but still hold positions (esp in US market, few for SG). His trading period is months. I remember his earlier website post predicts S&P500 over level of 2000+, so assume he is bullish.
Sunday Times Today:
====================
Panel interview from 5 several international fund managers: mostly feel QE3 withdrawal will not affect US economy recovery, esp if it is carried out gradually with consideration of economy conditions.
I will not count their views seriously as they may have vested interest in their funds.
PA Indicators (Ein55 Style):
=========================
1) Mass market survey of public + graduate in recent Aug 1 session: 20% bear / 40% flat / 40% bull. This is considered lagging indicator.
2) Investing speakers investors. This is a leading indicator to me. In summary, about 1 bear (20%) / 1 flat (20%) / 3 bull (60%), more bullish than mass market survey
2 bull - longer term
2 bull - shorter term (by end of 2013). Count it as 1 bull as no longer view is given.
1 flat
1 bear (HLY)
======================
My independent view on QE3 withdrawal and US interest rate hike remain unchanged (it is a good problem to have, mid term correction expected but mega bull is in tact). In this coming Aug 6 mentor session, I will add special discussion on recent views by other experts, esp the bearish view by HLY, explaining his reasons. I will point out what and why I disagree with him on certain key points, which time will tell by end of this year.
In the coming Ein55 course in Aug, I will also include details of macro data with FTP analysis to explain the interactions of bond market, stock market and bank interest rate, gold price, US$, etc.
Hu LiYang - morning seminar
==========================
1) US stock market is too bullish with QE3 until its price >> value, not recommending to invest at all as US market is expected to come down by end of this year as QE3 will withdraw at the same time. He did not specifically say it is a mega turning point (to mega bear market) or just a major correction if it happens. He just warns all to be very careful (same as when he warned about gold before it surged to US$1900+), not to enter at this moment as the downside is more than upside. However, he did not mention whether those who hold should exit now from stock market.
2) However, he thinks China market is already at very low level, bullish if holding period is at least 2 years, opp from US market.
3) He agrees the US property market is still at its low level but if there is any rebound, may not be too high.
4) He observed US 10 year gov bond yield has gone up, therefore feel the interest rate must go up, which will kill the stock market.
5) He thinks the 12 years of money flooding in the world will end soon, all the markets will come down, including bond market and stock market, esp after US interest rate has increased.
More details of QE3 view are given in his blog:
http://huliyang.qzone.qq.com/
Kelvin Han
==========
1) This bull market has not ended yet as there is no "parabolic run" (euphoric stage) observed yet
Afternoon Panel (HLY and 3 other experts - Robin Han, Wang Zhi Long, Wong from FundSupermart)
=====================================
In average, Robin & Wong is bullish of the market outlook. HLY is bearish. Wong thinks it will be flat market, at least for gold.
Adam Khoo
==========
No specific outlook, but still hold positions (esp in US market, few for SG). His trading period is months. I remember his earlier website post predicts S&P500 over level of 2000+, so assume he is bullish.
Sunday Times Today:
====================
Panel interview from 5 several international fund managers: mostly feel QE3 withdrawal will not affect US economy recovery, esp if it is carried out gradually with consideration of economy conditions.
I will not count their views seriously as they may have vested interest in their funds.
PA Indicators (Ein55 Style):
=========================
1) Mass market survey of public + graduate in recent Aug 1 session: 20% bear / 40% flat / 40% bull. This is considered lagging indicator.
2) Investing speakers investors. This is a leading indicator to me. In summary, about 1 bear (20%) / 1 flat (20%) / 3 bull (60%), more bullish than mass market survey
2 bull - longer term
2 bull - shorter term (by end of 2013). Count it as 1 bull as no longer view is given.
1 flat
1 bear (HLY)
======================
My independent view on QE3 withdrawal and US interest rate hike remain unchanged (it is a good problem to have, mid term correction expected but mega bull is in tact). In this coming Aug 6 mentor session, I will add special discussion on recent views by other experts, esp the bearish view by HLY, explaining his reasons. I will point out what and why I disagree with him on certain key points, which time will tell by end of this year.
In the coming Ein55 course in Aug, I will also include details of macro data with FTP analysis to explain the interactions of bond market, stock market and bank interest rate, gold price, US$, etc.
Einstein: "Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler".
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-educat ... by-dr-tee/
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-educat ... by-dr-tee/
Re: Hu Li Yang
here is my version of the seminar:
Market Views
Bernanke words have no meaning. Bernanke is stepping down on Jan 14 and his words no longer carry much weight anymore.
US is playing the money game. USD is the world’s currency. Other currencies can be printed without much impact. The 2008 financial crisis was a result of excessive liquidity, which led to low interest rates and aggressive lending. However, the Fed had flooded the market with even more liquidity after the fall of Lehman Brothers. What the investors needed was more confidence, not liquidity. The printing of USD was a selfish act. Although the intention was to encourage businesses to borrow money and have sufficient cash flow to meet operating needs, 90% of the ‘new money’ went to investments and speculations in stocks and debts. QE had helped US stock market to rise. The rise in the stock market can spur the economy (yes, he believes stocks lead economy at least 6 mths ahead, and not the other way round).
Bearish on gold. He shared a story when he was a broker whereby a client sold 3 houses to buy gold at US$850 in the 1990. Gold price went down for a long period. It took 28 years to return to US$850. Gold has a long bear period of 20+ years and the recent bull period of 10 years. In the past few years, there were 10,000 reasons to buy gold. And simply because gold was so popular, it became very risky. Everyone who wanted to buy gold had bought. With more speculation, a little drop in price would dash investors’ expectations and result in more selling.
Bearish on property price. He opined that the property prices in many places are at the extreme. He blamed it on the historical low interest rate. Many investors are forced to take their money out of the bank to invest for higher returns. He said the drop in gold prices was the first warning. Next would be the US 10-year bonds, which is considered the worlds’ ‘safest’ asset to own, could also crash. Hence, nothing would prevent the property from suffering the same fate.
Bullish on USD and RMB. USD will strengthen when the economy recovers. He expects most currencies to weaken against USD in the next year, except RMB.
4-Step Process to the End of QE
Hu Li Yang is known for giving his perspective and prediction of the stock market. With news about the tapering of QE, he has mapped out a process leading to the end of QE and its effects.
Step 1: US economy recovering. USD would strengthen and gold price continues to decline.
Step 2: Stronger signal that QE may stop. Investors fear tighter money supply and rise in interest rate, putting pressure on US bond price (or 10-year bond yield go up) and increase volatility in stocks.
Step 3: QE to stop by the end of the year. Tight money supply and investors continue to expect interest rates to rise. Bond and stock prices will decline. Property prices begin to be volatile.
Step 4: Rise in interest rate signals the end of this money game. Gold, stocks, bonds and property prices will decline.
Technical Analysis
Any asset with a 25% drop in price drop has entered a bearish phase.
Peak price divided by 2 = fair value (e.g. $950 for gold is fair value but may correct below 900 due to overswing – higher speculation, the more overswing)
Mid point between peak and trough is a resistance
10-day moving average for short term – up means still on uptrend and vice versa
10-week moving average for longer view
Should not see a down bar more than 2% at price peak in the weekly chart. Two down bars is a very bearish sign and vice versa.
Monthly chart should not see a down bar 9% or more, it is a bearish sign
Index should not drop more than 2% a day from peak or 10% in 3 days, it is a bearish sign
Keep the stock if the price went down and recovers to your entry point
Sell the stock if the price went up and dropped back to your entry point
Bearish signs of individual stocks:
Price goes down for 2-3 days
Drop more than 10%
10-day moving average points downwards
10-week moving average points downwards (Step 1-3 is sufficient, step 4 is reinforces down trend)
Rebound signs of individual stocks:
Price goes up for 3-5 days
Price should not fall back to the starting point in the next 5-15 days
10-day moving average pointing up
Technical Analysis on STI:
10-week moving average still down
3300 strong resistance
2700 strong support
2nd half of bull run. Every 5% or 100 points is a resistance.
Market Views
Bernanke words have no meaning. Bernanke is stepping down on Jan 14 and his words no longer carry much weight anymore.
US is playing the money game. USD is the world’s currency. Other currencies can be printed without much impact. The 2008 financial crisis was a result of excessive liquidity, which led to low interest rates and aggressive lending. However, the Fed had flooded the market with even more liquidity after the fall of Lehman Brothers. What the investors needed was more confidence, not liquidity. The printing of USD was a selfish act. Although the intention was to encourage businesses to borrow money and have sufficient cash flow to meet operating needs, 90% of the ‘new money’ went to investments and speculations in stocks and debts. QE had helped US stock market to rise. The rise in the stock market can spur the economy (yes, he believes stocks lead economy at least 6 mths ahead, and not the other way round).
Bearish on gold. He shared a story when he was a broker whereby a client sold 3 houses to buy gold at US$850 in the 1990. Gold price went down for a long period. It took 28 years to return to US$850. Gold has a long bear period of 20+ years and the recent bull period of 10 years. In the past few years, there were 10,000 reasons to buy gold. And simply because gold was so popular, it became very risky. Everyone who wanted to buy gold had bought. With more speculation, a little drop in price would dash investors’ expectations and result in more selling.
Bearish on property price. He opined that the property prices in many places are at the extreme. He blamed it on the historical low interest rate. Many investors are forced to take their money out of the bank to invest for higher returns. He said the drop in gold prices was the first warning. Next would be the US 10-year bonds, which is considered the worlds’ ‘safest’ asset to own, could also crash. Hence, nothing would prevent the property from suffering the same fate.
Bullish on USD and RMB. USD will strengthen when the economy recovers. He expects most currencies to weaken against USD in the next year, except RMB.
4-Step Process to the End of QE
Hu Li Yang is known for giving his perspective and prediction of the stock market. With news about the tapering of QE, he has mapped out a process leading to the end of QE and its effects.
Step 1: US economy recovering. USD would strengthen and gold price continues to decline.
Step 2: Stronger signal that QE may stop. Investors fear tighter money supply and rise in interest rate, putting pressure on US bond price (or 10-year bond yield go up) and increase volatility in stocks.
Step 3: QE to stop by the end of the year. Tight money supply and investors continue to expect interest rates to rise. Bond and stock prices will decline. Property prices begin to be volatile.
Step 4: Rise in interest rate signals the end of this money game. Gold, stocks, bonds and property prices will decline.
Technical Analysis
Any asset with a 25% drop in price drop has entered a bearish phase.
Peak price divided by 2 = fair value (e.g. $950 for gold is fair value but may correct below 900 due to overswing – higher speculation, the more overswing)
Mid point between peak and trough is a resistance
10-day moving average for short term – up means still on uptrend and vice versa
10-week moving average for longer view
Should not see a down bar more than 2% at price peak in the weekly chart. Two down bars is a very bearish sign and vice versa.
Monthly chart should not see a down bar 9% or more, it is a bearish sign
Index should not drop more than 2% a day from peak or 10% in 3 days, it is a bearish sign
Keep the stock if the price went down and recovers to your entry point
Sell the stock if the price went up and dropped back to your entry point
Bearish signs of individual stocks:
Price goes down for 2-3 days
Drop more than 10%
10-day moving average points downwards
10-week moving average points downwards (Step 1-3 is sufficient, step 4 is reinforces down trend)
Rebound signs of individual stocks:
Price goes up for 3-5 days
Price should not fall back to the starting point in the next 5-15 days
10-day moving average pointing up
Technical Analysis on STI:
10-week moving average still down
3300 strong resistance
2700 strong support
2nd half of bull run. Every 5% or 100 points is a resistance.
www.bigfatpurse.com - Living a Life of Abundance
Re: Hu Li Yang
Here is the latest view of Hu Liyang in KL:
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/80908
Here are my major similarity and difference in views from HLY:
1) HLY uses "pendulum effect", investing market would swing from max to min every 10 years. This is similar to Ein55 % optimism concept in a market cycling. However, Ein55 also mentions about world synchronization, most of the major "pendulums", eg. US, China, Europe and Japan, should reach a common frequency before it can have a "mega wing" together....this is a critical difference with HLY now, who thinks US market will collapse and brings down the whole world.
2) HLY is an excellent mid-term investing/trading master, suitable for 0% - 60% optimism investing. Today, he behaves more like value investor, asking people to buy low to increase chances of success, this is aligned with me for phase1 bull. The disagreement is on phase2 or phase3 bull which I think the market is not yet overheated, therefore even if there is a major correction (HLY thinks this will be a mega bear) at this stage, it will not come down to the extreme low. Quoting HLY's own saying, if one has not been to paradise, how to go to hell? The ball has to be positioned at very high level, so that it could have large impact during landing, else it be just half of the strength if let go at mid point.
It is not easy to implement buy very low sell very high to maximize the profit due to many false alarms during the mid-term market. To minimize risk, one would reduce the position over time, either cut loss (if wrong trend) or take profit earlier, resulting in lower profit. Calculated risk with high risk tolerance level are 2 common traits of mega-market-cycle investor, not only patient to buy low (traditional value investor) but also dare to sell high (market cycle investing).
In short, there is no right or wrong strategy, more importantly one must know ones' own strategy, not following partially this and that method, but consistent throughout the whole process. Time is friend, the results of each strategy will change with time, just need to know the timing to buy and sell, following one's investing style and natural frequency.
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/80908
Here are my major similarity and difference in views from HLY:
1) HLY uses "pendulum effect", investing market would swing from max to min every 10 years. This is similar to Ein55 % optimism concept in a market cycling. However, Ein55 also mentions about world synchronization, most of the major "pendulums", eg. US, China, Europe and Japan, should reach a common frequency before it can have a "mega wing" together....this is a critical difference with HLY now, who thinks US market will collapse and brings down the whole world.
2) HLY is an excellent mid-term investing/trading master, suitable for 0% - 60% optimism investing. Today, he behaves more like value investor, asking people to buy low to increase chances of success, this is aligned with me for phase1 bull. The disagreement is on phase2 or phase3 bull which I think the market is not yet overheated, therefore even if there is a major correction (HLY thinks this will be a mega bear) at this stage, it will not come down to the extreme low. Quoting HLY's own saying, if one has not been to paradise, how to go to hell? The ball has to be positioned at very high level, so that it could have large impact during landing, else it be just half of the strength if let go at mid point.
It is not easy to implement buy very low sell very high to maximize the profit due to many false alarms during the mid-term market. To minimize risk, one would reduce the position over time, either cut loss (if wrong trend) or take profit earlier, resulting in lower profit. Calculated risk with high risk tolerance level are 2 common traits of mega-market-cycle investor, not only patient to buy low (traditional value investor) but also dare to sell high (market cycle investing).
In short, there is no right or wrong strategy, more importantly one must know ones' own strategy, not following partially this and that method, but consistent throughout the whole process. Time is friend, the results of each strategy will change with time, just need to know the timing to buy and sell, following one's investing style and natural frequency.
Einstein: "Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler".
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-educat ... by-dr-tee/
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-educat ... by-dr-tee/
Re: Hu Li Yang
Another critical difference:
HLY does not pay much attention on political economy (which is a critical PA to me), focusing more on TA (mega market trend) and FA (eg. global macro economy). The pendulum effect will work nicely under free market condition. However, with so much gov interference, this pendulum's frequency and direction could be disturbed. For example:
1) HLY did not consider the China political economy, mainly look at SSEC (quoted "any level less than 2750 is a gift from heaven") but now SSEC is at its real low of 2000. Can China (low point) follows US (high point) to half its index in the next mega bear? This is a good example even if one has consider FA and TA, if PA is ignored, the results may not be accurate.
2) Everyone talks about QE3 withdrawal, but Fed Reserve has the right to delay it further till economy is much stronger. If there is an event which most people knows, it won't be a black swan effect: similar for bond market crash, fiscal cliff, US debt ceiling, Euro debt crisis, etc. The reason is simple, if most people knows, then politicians must do something to prevent or delay this from happening, although we know that these effort can only add more to the future trauma. Political Economy creates another opportunity to the market, knowing how these politicians think will enhance our chances of success. We elect them, so they have to do something to save the world, don't blame them if the policy may cause more harm than help in the long run.
HLY does not pay much attention on political economy (which is a critical PA to me), focusing more on TA (mega market trend) and FA (eg. global macro economy). The pendulum effect will work nicely under free market condition. However, with so much gov interference, this pendulum's frequency and direction could be disturbed. For example:
1) HLY did not consider the China political economy, mainly look at SSEC (quoted "any level less than 2750 is a gift from heaven") but now SSEC is at its real low of 2000. Can China (low point) follows US (high point) to half its index in the next mega bear? This is a good example even if one has consider FA and TA, if PA is ignored, the results may not be accurate.
2) Everyone talks about QE3 withdrawal, but Fed Reserve has the right to delay it further till economy is much stronger. If there is an event which most people knows, it won't be a black swan effect: similar for bond market crash, fiscal cliff, US debt ceiling, Euro debt crisis, etc. The reason is simple, if most people knows, then politicians must do something to prevent or delay this from happening, although we know that these effort can only add more to the future trauma. Political Economy creates another opportunity to the market, knowing how these politicians think will enhance our chances of success. We elect them, so they have to do something to save the world, don't blame them if the policy may cause more harm than help in the long run.
ein55 wrote:Here is the latest view of Hu Liyang in KL:
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/80908
Here are my major similarity and difference in views from HLY:
1) HLY uses "pendulum effect", investing market would swing from max to min every 10 years. This is similar to Ein55 % optimism concept in a market cycling. However, Ein55 also mentions about world synchronization, most of the major "pendulums", eg. US, China, Europe and Japan, should reach a common frequency before it can have a "mega wing" together....this is a critical difference with HLY now, who thinks US market will collapse and brings down the whole world.
2) HLY is an excellent mid-term investing/trading master, suitable for 0% - 60% optimism investing. Today, he behaves more like value investor, asking people to buy low to increase chances of success, this is aligned with me for phase1 bull. The disagreement is on phase2 or phase3 bull which I think the market is not yet overheated, therefore even if there is a major correction (HLY thinks this will be a mega bear) at this stage, it will not come down to the extreme low. Quoting HLY's own saying, if one has not been to paradise, how to go to hell? The ball has to be positioned at very high level, so that it could have large impact during landing, else it be just half of the strength if let go at mid point.
It is not easy to implement buy very low sell very high to maximize the profit due to many false alarms during the mid-term market. To minimize risk, one would reduce the position over time, either cut loss (if wrong trend) or take profit earlier, resulting in lower profit. Calculated risk with high risk tolerance level are 2 common traits of mega-market-cycle investor, not only patient to buy low (traditional value investor) but also dare to sell high (market cycle investing).
In short, there is no right or wrong strategy, more importantly one must know ones' own strategy, not following partially this and that method, but consistent throughout the whole process. Time is friend, the results of each strategy will change with time, just need to know the timing to buy and sell, following one's investing style and natural frequency.
Einstein: "Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler".
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-educat ... by-dr-tee/
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-educat ... by-dr-tee/
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- Platinum Forum Contributor
- Posts: 296
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Re: Hu Li Yang
"台灣股神胡立陽:金錢遊戲結束了‧你將受苦10年" - Hu Liyang: Money game is ending, you will suffer for the next 10 years.
This is indeed depressing.
But knowing human nature, "greed" will always be around. The money game should always be around because "greed" is around.
Question is where this new playground of greed (and money) will go to?
Bonds, EM, Myanmar, Shale Oil, Space Tech?
This is indeed depressing.
But knowing human nature, "greed" will always be around. The money game should always be around because "greed" is around.
Question is where this new playground of greed (and money) will go to?
Bonds, EM, Myanmar, Shale Oil, Space Tech?
Re: Hu Li Yang
If we compare 2 years ago (2011) and now, is there any major change to world economy or market? Perhaps most will agree that it is quite a flat market (except US stock market), some markets may come down (China) while some are gradually up, only a few emerging markets (eg Indonesia, Thailand, Philippine, Malaysia, etc) have set new high and now they are having major corrections (but dragging SG market too).
So, there is no strong reason to change from mega bull to mega bear view, as QE and interest rate hike are not something new.
I will elaborate more on current global/regional markets and "crisis" in tonight's monthly Ein55 SI Workshop. I will also share my views on agreement / disagreement with HLY, esp on QE3 and interest rate hike.
So, there is no strong reason to change from mega bull to mega bear view, as QE and interest rate hike are not something new.
I will elaborate more on current global/regional markets and "crisis" in tonight's monthly Ein55 SI Workshop. I will also share my views on agreement / disagreement with HLY, esp on QE3 and interest rate hike.
Einstein: "Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler".
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-educat ... by-dr-tee/
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-educat ... by-dr-tee/
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- Investing Mentor
- Posts: 1731
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Re: Hu Li Yang
问:要怎样才能不在股市中赔钱?
Question: How to Avoid Losing Money in the stock market?
答:老是有人问,為何他们在股市中总是赔钱?我告诉他们,错在他们是正常人!
Answer (Hu Li Yang): There are plenty of people who asked me why they usually lost money in the stock market? The reason is that they belong to the Normal people category.
我的投资原则是低买,正常人在股市裡不可能赚钱,只有不正常的人,才能赚钱,因為只有怪人才会买在最低点。
My investment philosophy is BUY Low, however, only Extraordinary or Weird people will earn money by Buying at the LOWEST price.
金融风暴时,正常人不敢进场,股市大好时,“他”才兴高采烈进场,结果买在最高点。
During the financial crisis, Normal people dare Not enter the stock market. In contrast, "they" will gladly enter the market when bull market is confirmed, ended up buying at the highest point.
因此,要战胜股市,就要变成不正常人。
To be successful in stock market, you need to become Extraordinary.
培养喜怒哀乐很重要,别人开心时,你要感到伤心,股市涨时,大家都在欢庆时,你应该提醒自己,可能有风险,
Emotional control is very crucial. When others are ecstatic, you need to feel gloomy.
When the stock market surge, everybody is celebrating, you need to remind yourself to be cautious of the probability of risk.
相反的,大家都在担心,你就要想,捡便宜的机会来了,所以是背道而驰。
When others are Fearful, You need to possess the mindset that this is an opportunity for you to pickup bargain stocks by AVOIDING Herd Mentality.
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/80908
Question: How to Avoid Losing Money in the stock market?
答:老是有人问,為何他们在股市中总是赔钱?我告诉他们,错在他们是正常人!
Answer (Hu Li Yang): There are plenty of people who asked me why they usually lost money in the stock market? The reason is that they belong to the Normal people category.
我的投资原则是低买,正常人在股市裡不可能赚钱,只有不正常的人,才能赚钱,因為只有怪人才会买在最低点。
My investment philosophy is BUY Low, however, only Extraordinary or Weird people will earn money by Buying at the LOWEST price.
金融风暴时,正常人不敢进场,股市大好时,“他”才兴高采烈进场,结果买在最高点。
During the financial crisis, Normal people dare Not enter the stock market. In contrast, "they" will gladly enter the market when bull market is confirmed, ended up buying at the highest point.
因此,要战胜股市,就要变成不正常人。
To be successful in stock market, you need to become Extraordinary.
培养喜怒哀乐很重要,别人开心时,你要感到伤心,股市涨时,大家都在欢庆时,你应该提醒自己,可能有风险,
Emotional control is very crucial. When others are ecstatic, you need to feel gloomy.
When the stock market surge, everybody is celebrating, you need to remind yourself to be cautious of the probability of risk.
相反的,大家都在担心,你就要想,捡便宜的机会来了,所以是背道而驰。
When others are Fearful, You need to possess the mindset that this is an opportunity for you to pickup bargain stocks by AVOIDING Herd Mentality.
http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/80908
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- Gold Forum Contributor
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Re: Hu Li Yang
The Link to Hu Li Yang's Talk on 11th Jan 14.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/hsvtujt3pwdk5 ... 094039.m4a
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ueqhkwyiglv5j ... 114259.m4a
https://www.dropbox.com/s/hsvtujt3pwdk5 ... 094039.m4a
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ueqhkwyiglv5j ... 114259.m4a
Cheers!
Battleship
Battleship
Re: Hu Li Yang
Thanks for sharing.
Battleship wrote:The Link to Hu Li Yang's Talk on 11th Jan 14.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/hsvtujt3pwdk5 ... 094039.m4a
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ueqhkwyiglv5j ... 114259.m4a
Price is what you pay; Value is what you get
RayNg
RayNg
Re: Hu Li Yang
Hu Li Yang (HLY, the famous Asian Investing Master, who probably holds the record of conducting the most number of investing talks in 1 year) and my views have been aligned well in the past few years (even during Euro debt crisis 2-3 years ago, we were one of the few bullish viewers at that time) until 6 months ago, when I attended his talk in Aug 2013 investing conference, he announced the end of US bull market due to QE3 tapering and coming interest rate hike while US stock market is at its historical high level. Our mega market views started to diverge (he became bearish while I remain bullish) and I have explained in my market outlook talks over the past 6 months, supporting by facts why QE3 tapering and interest rate hike are blessing in disguise for a bullish market cycle. HLY has his good reasons too, mostly in a logical way (conventional thinking), while I am using reversed psychology of investors with historical data as support. For more details, you may refer to my recent 10-pg article on global market outlook (http://www.wealthdirections.asia) or coming for the next market outlook 2014 workshop (registering through weblink below).
From the recent HLY talk in Jan 2014 (Singapore), he still holds the view that US market is bearish. At the end of talk, during the last Q&A, someone asked his definition of bear market, whether it is 20% mid term correction or more than 30% longer term bear market. HLY did not answer this question directly, saying that he has to observe one step at a time, only he can conclude whether US market is bearish or not. HLY is very sure there will be a global financial crisis one day but he is unsure whether the coming one will be a correction or real major crisis.
This is a dilemma, HLY is bearish on mega trend of US stock market but at the same time, he seems to accept that there is a last rally, therefore he suggests to use shorter term trading technique. While holding bearish view of US, he is bullish of China stock market as he feels the fund will flow from US to China stock market. In my opinion, based on the historical data, whenever there is a global financial crisis, all the major stock markets in the world will fall together, it is unlikely for world #1 and #2 economy to have 2 distinct mega trends but it is possible to have different mid-term trends, eg, China SSEC has been bearish while US has been bullish since 2009 till now.
Based on the sharing above, I have a feeling that HLY and my views are actually not entirely diverged. The main difference is due to the definition of investing period and size of bear (mini bear or big bear). Although HLY did not define clearly his size of bear market, based on my understanding of his investing style, he is an excellent mid-term trader or investor, capturing the mid-term trend of 3-12 months very well in the past. For me, I am a mega-cycle investor, focusing more on market trend of 1-5 years. So, I am bullish of global stock market, at least until 2017 (supported by macroeconomy data), but the actual duration depends on "market fever", if the global market (stocks, property, economy, etc) arrives at 75% - 100% optimism earlier, then the bull market may end earlier (eg. after the last Asian Financial crisis, the S.E.A. market climbs up from 0% to 100% optimism in 1+ year, total bull duration is only 1+ year, not necessarily has to be many years) At the same time, I believe US stock market (which is over 60% optimism) requires a major correction (without killing the bull), so that it can continue its marathon bull run. If HLY "bear market" definition is only a mid-term correction (<20%), then it is still aligned with mine. As for his super mega view of next 10 years of bearish global investing market (stocks, property, etc), I still have reservation at the moment as I need to observe whether the global market has exceeded the 100% optimism in the next few years.
At least there is one point in common between HLY and myself: there is still a last rally in the stock market, only difference is the duration. HLY feels the bull market will end by end of 2014 (earlier talk was end of 2013), while I feel it will be until at least 2017 (but could be faster if 100% market optimism is reached earlier). Time will tell.
HLY has become "Dr Doom" while one of the 2 famous Dr Doom (Faber/Roubini), Dr Roubini has become bullish of stock market in 2014. For me, I am not Dr Boom nor Dr Doom all the time, will change my position based on % market optimism in a mega market cycle: Dr Doom when it is over >75% optimism, Dr Boom when it is < 25% optimism, a sleeping investor when the market is 25% - 75% optimism.
Dr Tee
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Useful Links
==========
1) About Dr Tee (Ein55):
http://wealthdirections.asia/dr-tee-ein55/
2) Updated Schedule for Dr Tee (Ein55) Free* Courses and Workshops:
http://wealthdirections.asia/investment-courses/
From the recent HLY talk in Jan 2014 (Singapore), he still holds the view that US market is bearish. At the end of talk, during the last Q&A, someone asked his definition of bear market, whether it is 20% mid term correction or more than 30% longer term bear market. HLY did not answer this question directly, saying that he has to observe one step at a time, only he can conclude whether US market is bearish or not. HLY is very sure there will be a global financial crisis one day but he is unsure whether the coming one will be a correction or real major crisis.
This is a dilemma, HLY is bearish on mega trend of US stock market but at the same time, he seems to accept that there is a last rally, therefore he suggests to use shorter term trading technique. While holding bearish view of US, he is bullish of China stock market as he feels the fund will flow from US to China stock market. In my opinion, based on the historical data, whenever there is a global financial crisis, all the major stock markets in the world will fall together, it is unlikely for world #1 and #2 economy to have 2 distinct mega trends but it is possible to have different mid-term trends, eg, China SSEC has been bearish while US has been bullish since 2009 till now.
Based on the sharing above, I have a feeling that HLY and my views are actually not entirely diverged. The main difference is due to the definition of investing period and size of bear (mini bear or big bear). Although HLY did not define clearly his size of bear market, based on my understanding of his investing style, he is an excellent mid-term trader or investor, capturing the mid-term trend of 3-12 months very well in the past. For me, I am a mega-cycle investor, focusing more on market trend of 1-5 years. So, I am bullish of global stock market, at least until 2017 (supported by macroeconomy data), but the actual duration depends on "market fever", if the global market (stocks, property, economy, etc) arrives at 75% - 100% optimism earlier, then the bull market may end earlier (eg. after the last Asian Financial crisis, the S.E.A. market climbs up from 0% to 100% optimism in 1+ year, total bull duration is only 1+ year, not necessarily has to be many years) At the same time, I believe US stock market (which is over 60% optimism) requires a major correction (without killing the bull), so that it can continue its marathon bull run. If HLY "bear market" definition is only a mid-term correction (<20%), then it is still aligned with mine. As for his super mega view of next 10 years of bearish global investing market (stocks, property, etc), I still have reservation at the moment as I need to observe whether the global market has exceeded the 100% optimism in the next few years.
At least there is one point in common between HLY and myself: there is still a last rally in the stock market, only difference is the duration. HLY feels the bull market will end by end of 2014 (earlier talk was end of 2013), while I feel it will be until at least 2017 (but could be faster if 100% market optimism is reached earlier). Time will tell.
HLY has become "Dr Doom" while one of the 2 famous Dr Doom (Faber/Roubini), Dr Roubini has become bullish of stock market in 2014. For me, I am not Dr Boom nor Dr Doom all the time, will change my position based on % market optimism in a mega market cycle: Dr Doom when it is over >75% optimism, Dr Boom when it is < 25% optimism, a sleeping investor when the market is 25% - 75% optimism.
Dr Tee
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Useful Links
==========
1) About Dr Tee (Ein55):
http://wealthdirections.asia/dr-tee-ein55/
2) Updated Schedule for Dr Tee (Ein55) Free* Courses and Workshops:
http://wealthdirections.asia/investment-courses/
Einstein: "Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler".
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-educat ... by-dr-tee/
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-educat ... by-dr-tee/