Recent interview of Hu Liyang on market outlook, he advises readers to be cautious of stock market.
http://www.sharesinv.com/articles/2013/ ... ut-stocks/
A few weeks ago, he also gave warning that BOTH bond market and stock market will fall in 2nd half of this year.
http://finance.qq.com/a/20130408/001557.htm
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Here are my personal views and analysis:
HLY has been very positive on stock market in the past few years, however, after the introduction of QE3 in late 2012, he has been cautious on the long term effectiveness of this tool (see his earlier article on "viagra effect"), esp he worries when the interest rate starts to rise, the markets (bond, stock, property...) may not be able to take it.
As an investing educator, he does his job to warn the investors on the increasing risks. However, I feel it does not mean it is time to sell and exit from the stock market. He simply means at this stage (US stock over 50% optimism, set historical high; other major regional markets also about to set new high...), the upside of stock market is about the same as downside, any entry to investment market should be performed during correction (eg. gold) and has to watch out the dynamic mid-term trend.
HLY feels in the long term, higher interest rate may turn the direction of economy growth, affecting the stock market. I only agree partially as I feel the increase in interest rate (one day, could be 1-3 years from now) will only be introduced gradually when the economy is significantly stronger. Any increase will be viewed both positively (economy is strong, therefore rate can be increased) and negatively (long term outlook is bad), but economy and stock market should still continue to grow for some time. This is due to the momentum effect, any brake will not take effect immediately, it will follow its mega trend for some time. Eg, during bear market, any cut of interest rate (esp 0.25% each time) will not change the downturn immediately, but it will change its mega direction one day, when combined with other stimulus (eg. gov funding, QE, etc).
I also agree with HLY that gradual growth of US economy may not be a bad news as it ensures a steady growth, bubbles will not formed easily. The mid-term worry is US stock market has outperformed the world stock market, eg. S&P will challenge 1600 level soon, when stock market rises too fast (esp ahead economy by too much), it may be corrected significantly later, this is probably HLY predicts stock market will fall in 2nd half of this year, but he did not say this is a mega bear, nor this is a mini bear (perhaps this will give some flexibility to his prediction). Personally, I think there will be another correction <15% for US stock market (at least 1-2 times each year) if it continues to grow at the current phase. At higher level, the index will fluctuate a lot. Eg. when S&P is at 1000 point, +/-10% is only 100 points, but at 1600 point, +/- 10% will be 160 points. Similarly, when STI is above 3500 point, 15% correction could mean 500 point difference in just a few months, not many investors could take this risk easily, although its 90% optimism level is above 4500 point.
In short, world stock market including STI has or will go beyond 50% optimism level, risk is getting higher with each rise. However, it does not mean we should sell all the stock immediately. My suggestion is to use the % optimism to estimate the % cash (meaning opportunity fund, after keep some cash for emergency use) vs % stock investment (assuming this is the only investment market):
Eg:
At 50% optimism, keep 50% cash, 50% investment in stock (or all other investment linked to economy or market cycle)
At 75% optimism, keep 75% cash, 25% investment in stock (or all other investment linked to economy or market cycle)
At 90% optimism, keep 90% cash, 10% investment in stock (or all other investment linked to economy or market cycle)
(in practice, one may totally exit at 90% optimism, or keep 10% investment if want to speculate the euphoric stage)
Similarly, when market goes bearish one day, we can use similar approach to increase %investment with lower optimism level. Eg.
At 25% optimism, keep 25% cash, 75% investment in stock (or all other investment linked to economy or market cycle)
It means, at 75% market optimism, one should have sold at least 50% stocks. This is aligned with 50/50 method, sell 50% at intermediate high (take profit using mid-term market cycle) while keep 50% for longer investment (longer term market cycle or value investing).
STI is catching up recently, breaking the 3200-3300 mega resistance, 20% mid-term upside is possible (next mega resistance will be 3800-4000, last market cycle peak), this could be the target for 75% optimism. At the same time, if US market contiues to rise, it could reach its 75% optimism level faster (Eg. S&P500 around 1700), then the rest of the laggard market (including STI) may be corrected earlier, even they have not achieved their respective 75% optimism level.
As long as US/Japan/EU/China continue to support QE or not to tighten the monetary policy, the momentum of economy growth should continue for 1-3 years or even longer. The time when interest rate is first increased by US, market will be corrected, but it should recover again to last for a period of time, until when most people feel positive interest rate can be justified, then it will fall unknowingly one day like year 2000 and 2007. QE should help Japan and US for the next 1 year, although it is not a long-term solution but speculation (due to overflow of cash) will lift up the market. China follows more cautious approach, but the stock market will have at least an intermediate bull (SSEC over 3000 level) before it could fall with the rest of the world market one day. The China leaders will introduce more stimulus if 7.5% GDP target cannot be achieved.
In short, I feel the bull market will not end soon but those who remains in the market, need to have some strategies to deal with the possible volatility in future. If not, it is not a bad idea to take the next possible exit.