INVESTMENT - GOLD BUYBACK

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Nana
Posts: 3
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 4:49 pm
Location: sg

INVESTMENT - GOLD BUYBACK

Post by Nana »

Hi Dennis,
my colleague is recommending gold investment and this is how it works.
You invest say S$6k with this co. and they will give you a 100g gold bar (sealed with barcode). 6 mths later, they will buy back from you at the price you paid (ie S$6k) + x% as bonu$. You have to return them the gold bar in the original sealed condition. In the event if the co go bust in 6 mths time, you still have the gold bar in your possession and you can sell it away.
My question is : Is this type of investment safe? As you can't open the gold bar to examine its authenticity, what if it is fake? According to my colleague, this aussie co is reputed. Can't really remember the name though he showed me the gold bar.

Pls enlighten.

Thank you very much. :roll:
to know your future is to shape it now
Dennis Ng
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Re: INVESTMENT - GOLD BUYBACK

Post by Dennis Ng »

Nana wrote:Hi Dennis,
my colleague is recommending gold investment and this is how it works.
You invest say S$6k with this co. and they will give you a 100g gold bar (sealed with barcode). 6 mths later, they will buy back from you at the price you paid (ie S$6k) + x% as bonu$. You have to return them the gold bar in the original sealed condition. In the event if the co go bust in 6 mths time, you still have the gold bar in your possession and you can sell it away.
My question is : Is this type of investment safe? As you can't open the gold bar to examine its authenticity, what if it is fake? According to my colleague, this aussie co is reputed. Can't really remember the name though he showed me the gold bar.

Pls enlighten.

Thank you very much. :roll:
Hi Nana,
ask the person (sales person), how does the company able to give you (the client) the x% bonus?
Actually, this question to ask whenever you're presented with any investment opportunity is taught in our one-day "How to save and Accumulate One Million Dollars Seminar.

I bet they cannot tell you the answer, or tell you some silly excuse that it is a business strategy and it is a secret, so they cannot tell you.

Gold does NOT give interest.

Please check for the same piece of gold they sell you, whether you can buy from UOB at about 15% to 20% cheaper price? Then you might even deduce that the x% bonus comes from you paying Extra for the gold you bought.
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
wemakebread
Investing Mentor
Posts: 297
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2009 2:07 pm
Location: Singapore

Post by wemakebread »

Hi Nana,

The prevailing price of gold & silver offered by UOB can be found at
https://uniservices1.uobgroup.com/secur ... prices.jsp?&#

There's a phone number at the bottom to call if you want the most up-to-date price. Please compare this price with what the company is offering you.

Cheers :)
Dennis Ng
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Posts: 9781
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2005 7:16 am
Location: Singapore
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Post by Dennis Ng »

wemakebread wrote:Hi Nana,

The prevailing price of gold & silver offered by UOB can be found at
https://uniservices1.uobgroup.com/secur ... prices.jsp?&#

There's a phone number at the bottom to call if you want the most up-to-date price. Please compare this price with what the company is offering you.

Cheers :)
thanks wemakebread for sharing the link.

UOB's selling price is about S$57,743 today, I think those "companies" currently offer the same gold at about S$70,000, or about 20% higher, no wonder they can give people "bonus" on their gold.
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
wootzening
Senior Forum Member
Posts: 13
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 9:53 am

Post by wootzening »

Hi Dennis & Wemakebread,
thanks for your views. I'll be cautious and find out more b4 i part with my $$.

THANK YOU! :)
learner
Wealth Directions Guest Speaker
Posts: 57
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2009 11:22 pm

Post by learner »

I know little about such gold-buyback scheme operated by such companies. So I just share some amateurish thoughts, and stand to be corrected here.

I imagine this hypothetical scenario:

Company sells you a bar of good at 20% higher than what you can buy from UOB. Say, Company sells you at $6,000 (which means you could have bought at about $4800 from UOB) and the company promises to buy back from you at $6,000 and promises a overall returns of 9% - $540 - to you over 6 months. (if we ignore time-value effect, that is like 18% returns per year) (also, the company may not call this 9% as return on investment but merely call it purchase-rebates or something, perhaps to avoid certain legal implications)

Note that though u are paying 20% higher than what u would pay at UOB, after 6 months, you get back this 20% because that company promised to buy back from you at the price at about $6000 (I am ignoring some details such as GST & a 3% payment to you at the beginning).

Hence even if the cost at UOB is only $1000 while you have to pay $6000 to this company, it makes no difference to you if the company fulfills its promise to buy back from you at $6000 at the end of 6 months (if u choose to sell back to them at that point in time).

So total you are promised is $6540 (assuming they are giving you 3% return at the beginning of transaction, another 3% midway, another 3% at another month, all within the 6 months period, and assuming at the end of 6months you sell the gold back to that company) after half a year. This 9% returns on your $6000 for 6 months is roughly an equivalent of 18% return over one year (ignoring time-effect).

That means the company needs to have a way to be able to generate more than 18% per year to cover the rate of return which they need to pay you.

On top of the 18%, the company needs to generate additional returns to cover their overheads, their sales expenses (e.g. assume the x% commision to sales agent) and other direct expenses, and also a profit above all these costs.

As Dennis asked: What kind of business operations does that company do that enable them to generate that high return to cover the high returns they need to pay you, their direct & indirect expenses, and their profit?

If that company says that they derive their earnings base on the assumption that gold price will rise, then it implies that they are saying gold price will rise at a rate of more than 20% a year (remember: they need to cover your 18% return, perhaps the 1-2% commission to sales-agent, rental, and many other expenses). Will gold prices continue to rise at this rate for the years down the road? (if one assess that gold price would continue to rise at a high rate for not more than the next one to two years or so, then one will need to adjust one's time-frame for holding on and rolling-over the gold if one wants to buy gold from that company)

So perhaps we need to assess whether gold prices would continue to rise at this rate of more than 20% per year. If the rate rises at less than 18% per year, then they could not even pay you from their generated returns, but may need to take the money they received from other buyers to pay you - which would make it SOUNDS LIKE a Ponzi Scheme, assuming it is not such a scheme - and we know the tragedy of people who lost their money in various types of disguised Ponzi Scheme - so the question of how the company can realistically generate profit to cover the high returns promised to you and their other expenses becomes important. We should not be satisfied with answers like "it is our trade secret" if any sales-agent gives such an answer.

What is the downside risk? It seems to be the difference in the market price of the gold and the price you paid to that company assuming the company close down in the event of a persistent drop in gold price which triggers off people wanting to sell back the gold bars to that company (instead of rolling-over for another 6 months).

If gold price drops significantly say by 25% 1 year after the date one bought the gold bar from that company, which is not an unrealistic percentage, that means your gold is about 45% below market price (25% + you paid about 20% above the market price when you first bought it). [this is a simplified estimate - in actual fact the company might have paid you 3% or 6% return already before it collapses]

If gold price drops, and if the company cannot expand its customers, then it cannot afford to pay if say, 60% to 80% of customers want to sell the gold bars back to them to withdraw cash.

LIke what Dennis asked, what sustains the company? Is the rise in gold prices the only thing they depend on? Gold price will not keep rising forever. A 25% - 35% correction may kill the company.

Perhaps we also need to ask: is it working like a Ponzi Scheme even if the owners did not intend it to be a Ponzi Scheme?

Perhaps before one commits to buying gold from such a company, one should compare it with other ways of investing in Gold (look at what Dennis shared about other ways to invest in Gold). After comparison, some may prefer those other ways.

For example, if (note the "if") gold prices really will probably rise consitently more than 20% per year, then why not consider buying directly from UOB instead of paying a higher price to that company (which sells you about 20% more expensive than what you can buy directly from UOB)?

One may say that "well, I want to pass the risk to that company because the gold price may drop so if I buy the gold directly from UOB and hold on to gold myself, I may make a loss if 6 or 12 months later the price drop". But precisely it is during the time when gold price drops that increase the risk of that company collapsing!
Last edited by learner on Fri Jul 16, 2010 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
learner
Wealth Directions Guest Speaker
Posts: 57
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2009 11:22 pm

Gold Label - investors in trouble as company is in trouble

Post by learner »

Today's TODAY paper reported that Gold Label run into problems and cannot pay money promised to those who invested in their gold bars.

The article in Today 23 Dec 2010 is here: http://www.todayonline.com/Singapore/ED ... Alert-List

Those who heed Dennis' advice should be glad that they have listened to Dennis :)
wemakebread
Investing Mentor
Posts: 297
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2009 2:07 pm
Location: Singapore

Post by wemakebread »

Below article appeared on Straits Times, Prime News on 25 Dec 10.

Source:
http://admpreview.straitstimes.com:90/v ... 35010aRCRD


The real McCoy or just fool's gold?
Gold dealer's business model attracting fans and detractors alike
By Francis Chan, Companies Correspondent

A MALAYSIAN gold dealer operating in Orchard Towers is attracting plenty of investors - and some online scrutiny - thanks to the generous terms it offers.

The firm, called XXX, has an unusual business plan: It sells gold at a 2 per cent discount to the prevailing market price, with a guarantee to buy it back 30 or 90 days later.

Its business model seems to be counting on gold maintaining its steady rise.

The market has certainly been on its side, with gold prices climbing 25 per cent this year with no signs of slowing.

XXX, which started in Singapore in 2008, is licensed by the Police Licensing Division to deal in second-hand jewellery, gold and white gold, but it is not regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

A check with the Accounting Corporate and Regulatory Authority shows the firm has a paid-up share capital of $500,000. It has three Malaysian directors Marcus Yee, Ng Poh Weng and Chin Wai Leong, and a Singaporean director Leow Wee Khong.

A senior staff member who did not want to be named told The Straits Times that the gold sold to XXX's clients is priced at rates similar to those at local goldsmiths and jewellery stores, and not on spot prices in global markets.

'We give them a 2 per cent discount from the prevailing market price, and they take the gold with them. We don't hold the gold for them here,' he said.

Clients have the option of selling back the gold to XXX after a 30- or 90-day period for the price they would have paid without the discount. This means they make a 2 per cent return. They can also hold on to the gold and sell it on the open market.

Another senior XXX employee at the office said the gold is mainly procured from distributors here like United Overseas Bank. XXX selects gold randomly after it takes delivery of the metal for testing and certification at the Singapore Assay Office every fortnight.

'We can't certify every piece of gold we get because the tests conducted by the Singapore Assay Office is a destructive test, meaning they have to drill or scrape samples for testing,' he explained.

XXX's offer has been derided by some netizens as being too good to be true. Others questioned how firms like XXX can turn a profit offering such high returns.

The Straits Times understands from a source familiar with such business models that the gold price is usually marked up to include other costs, such as shipping, testing and certification, security, insurance and even marketing.

The mark-up could range between 10 per cent and 15 per cent.

Recently, a gold dealing firm called The Gold Label (TGL) hit the spotlight when it was placed on the MAS' Investor Alert List. TGL - which has no known connection to XXX - sold gold to customers, promising a return of up to 9 per cent over a six-month period. But it reportedly had cash-flow issues and filed a notice to appoint liquidators for voluntary winding-up in October.

XXX's parent unit in Kuala Lumpur is also in the regulatory spotlight. It is under investigation by Bank Negara Malaysia for conducting illegal deposit-taking activity.

However, someone at the XXX office in Singapore told The Straits Times, on condition of anonymity, that it remains confident no further action will be taken by the Malaysian authorities.

Malaysia's central bank is expected to release the findings of its probe in the first quarter of next year.

Customers The Straits Times spoke to at XXX's service centre in Orchard Towers earlier this week did not seem fazed by the Bank Negara probe or by concerns raised on the Internet.

For clients like Mr Christopher Tan, 39, owning an actual piece of the precious metal makes them feel secure about where they are putting their money.

'I hold the physical gold bar, which has an inherent value, (but) to me this is calculated risk,' he said.

Investor Andrew Tay, 29, said the firm kept its promise of buying back the gold.

A veteran financial adviser, who did not want to be named, said that, as with all investments, investors need to consider the risks involved and not be overwhelmed by the promise of high returns.

'Gold looks good now, but so did the 5 per cent returns or so offered by products like Lehman Minibonds and other credit- linked notes in their heyday,' he said.

Gold prices have steadied in recent months to US$1,384.38 per ounce as of yesterday, after soaring to a high of US$1,423.75 on Dec 6. A year ago, it was at US$1,105.40.
Dennis Ng
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Post by Dennis Ng »

To me, it is very clear, no confusion at all, it's fool's gold.
wemakebread wrote:Below article appeared on Straits Times, Prime News on 25 Dec 10.

Source:
http://admpreview.straitstimes.com:90/v ... 35010aRCRD


The real McCoy or just fool's gold?
Gold dealer's business model attracting fans and detractors alike
By Francis Chan, Companies Correspondent

A MALAYSIAN gold dealer operating in Orchard Towers is attracting plenty of investors - and some online scrutiny - thanks to the generous terms it offers.

The firm, called XXX, has an unusual business plan: It sells gold at a 2 per cent discount to the prevailing market price, with a guarantee to buy it back 30 or 90 days later.

Its business model seems to be counting on gold maintaining its steady rise.

The market has certainly been on its side, with gold prices climbing 25 per cent this year with no signs of slowing.

XXX, which started in Singapore in 2008, is licensed by the Police Licensing Division to deal in second-hand jewellery, gold and white gold, but it is not regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

A check with the Accounting Corporate and Regulatory Authority shows the firm has a paid-up share capital of $500,000. It has three Malaysian directors Marcus Yee, Ng Poh Weng and Chin Wai Leong, and a Singaporean director Leow Wee Khong.

A senior staff member who did not want to be named told The Straits Times that the gold sold to XXX's clients is priced at rates similar to those at local goldsmiths and jewellery stores, and not on spot prices in global markets.

'We give them a 2 per cent discount from the prevailing market price, and they take the gold with them. We don't hold the gold for them here,' he said.

Clients have the option of selling back the gold to XXX after a 30- or 90-day period for the price they would have paid without the discount. This means they make a 2 per cent return. They can also hold on to the gold and sell it on the open market.

Another senior XXX employee at the office said the gold is mainly procured from distributors here like United Overseas Bank. XXX selects gold randomly after it takes delivery of the metal for testing and certification at the Singapore Assay Office every fortnight.

'We can't certify every piece of gold we get because the tests conducted by the Singapore Assay Office is a destructive test, meaning they have to drill or scrape samples for testing,' he explained.

XXX's offer has been derided by some netizens as being too good to be true. Others questioned how firms like XXX can turn a profit offering such high returns.

The Straits Times understands from a source familiar with such business models that the gold price is usually marked up to include other costs, such as shipping, testing and certification, security, insurance and even marketing.

The mark-up could range between 10 per cent and 15 per cent.

Recently, a gold dealing firm called The Gold Label (TGL) hit the spotlight when it was placed on the MAS' Investor Alert List. TGL - which has no known connection to XXX - sold gold to customers, promising a return of up to 9 per cent over a six-month period. But it reportedly had cash-flow issues and filed a notice to appoint liquidators for voluntary winding-up in October.

XXX's parent unit in Kuala Lumpur is also in the regulatory spotlight. It is under investigation by Bank Negara Malaysia for conducting illegal deposit-taking activity.

However, someone at the XXX office in Singapore told The Straits Times, on condition of anonymity, that it remains confident no further action will be taken by the Malaysian authorities.

Malaysia's central bank is expected to release the findings of its probe in the first quarter of next year.

Customers The Straits Times spoke to at XXX's service centre in Orchard Towers earlier this week did not seem fazed by the Bank Negara probe or by concerns raised on the Internet.

For clients like Mr Christopher Tan, 39, owning an actual piece of the precious metal makes them feel secure about where they are putting their money.

'I hold the physical gold bar, which has an inherent value, (but) to me this is calculated risk,' he said.

Investor Andrew Tay, 29, said the firm kept its promise of buying back the gold.

A veteran financial adviser, who did not want to be named, said that, as with all investments, investors need to consider the risks involved and not be overwhelmed by the promise of high returns.

'Gold looks good now, but so did the 5 per cent returns or so offered by products like Lehman Minibonds and other credit- linked notes in their heyday,' he said.

Gold prices have steadied in recent months to US$1,384.38 per ounce as of yesterday, after soaring to a high of US$1,423.75 on Dec 6. A year ago, it was at US$1,105.40.
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
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