How you know the bottom is coming?

[danielcheng]

Was listening to an interview with Jim Rogers and took note of one of his comments on how he sense the market is going to hit bottom.

Thought of just sharing this just incase anyone interested. For the forum experts, do pardon me.

He says and i quote:

"when people say its over, and when you hear more bad news, and stocks stops going down, and when they go up on bad news, that is when it will hit bottom".

Sort of grasped his wisedom in a broad sense as i am still learning but believe those who are experienced and knowledgable in investing will infact benefit from all these "market signals"

[brazilian_rosewood]

I find the book "The Joseph Cycle by Simon Sim" to be indicative of the general sense. I can see mini bull run in a supposedly bear cycle of 2008 - 2015

http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2008/06/the- ... simon-sim/

[Dennis Ng]

I find the book "The Joseph Cycle by Simon Sim" to be indicative of the general sense. I can see mini bull run in a supposedly bear cycle of 2008 - 2015

http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2008/06/the- ... simon-sim/

One KEY factor that affect a country's economy is Demographics. Japan has been in a decline since the Asset Bubble burst in 1989 becos it has a shrinking and aging population.

One factor worth analysing is U.S. "Baby Boomers" generation, which is from 1946 to 1964. Based on historical analysis, "consumption" peaks at age 47. Thus, those born in 1964 reached age 47 in year 2011...

U.S. is going to print money 2nd round, or more widely known as QE 2 (Quantitative Easing 2)....I suspect that after the printing is done, the U.S. economy would still remain sluggish becos Consumption constitutes 70% of U.S. economy.

All these printing of money (debt) cannot help the economy becos as long as Unemployment rate remains high, U.S. consumption is NOT going to recover...

Thus, when the World realises that U.S. economy still does NOT recover despite QE 2, it might trigger a Confidence Crisis, and market sentiment can turn around very quickly, triggering the Next Global Financial Crisis, possibly in year 2012...

Before the Next Crisis, remember that Asian Stock Markets likely go up due to "part of the Hot money" flowing into Asia...so there'll be a last chance to Make Money in the Last Phase of this Bull market (or Bear market rally if the entire cycle from year 2009 to year 2015 is considered a bear market cycle according to "Joseph Cycle".

[danielcheng]

Thanks Dennis & Martin,

Great info! By sharing a little, i've gained alot more.

Daniel

[Dennis Ng]

Thanks Dennis & Martin,

Great info! By sharing a little, i've gained alot more.

Daniel

yes, exactly. I learned alot from the sharing of info by forumers this weekend, including what you shared.