Hi,
I think all of us of have to watch closely your stock tomorrow. I just see the news that Egypt Crisis is getting worst. So Singapore market might take a big hit. Because USA market might open even lower tomorrow too. If necessary better cut lost and take some profit.
James Tai
Egypt Crisis
Moderators: alvin, learner, Dennis Ng
Hi,
Just to clarify on my previous post, I don't mean to get you panic and start selling all your stock. There probably be some correction in STI tomorrow due to the concern of international community but that does not mean you have to sell all your stock. You to look at what stock you have and the tolerance level of loss that you can accept for each stock you hold. All of us buy at different price so if you need to ask yourself, what is your confident on the stock and at what price you like to hold on to it until you decide to cut loss. Stock like Frasercomm and Koh Brother, their price are very stubborn and trade in very tight range even when there is major market correction they don't go down much. Otherwise you have to look at what is the support level of your stock price and decide if you still want hold on to the stock if it's break your support level.
I have talk to a few people on this crisis and all of them have different view on it's impact in Singapore Market. One say that Egypt economic has not much impact to the world economy, it just an internal issue of a country. The other few that if Egypt crisis is not handle properly then it might spread to the rest of the Middle East. Then USA and Europe might get worry and more selling of the stock might happen. One friend even tell me when Indonesia and Thailand have riots it does not has much impact to Singapore market. So is hard to say now how the situation is going to play out. Personally I don't think this crisis should last very long, but we have to be conscious of it's new development everyday and manage our risk in stock investment.
James Tai
Just to clarify on my previous post, I don't mean to get you panic and start selling all your stock. There probably be some correction in STI tomorrow due to the concern of international community but that does not mean you have to sell all your stock. You to look at what stock you have and the tolerance level of loss that you can accept for each stock you hold. All of us buy at different price so if you need to ask yourself, what is your confident on the stock and at what price you like to hold on to it until you decide to cut loss. Stock like Frasercomm and Koh Brother, their price are very stubborn and trade in very tight range even when there is major market correction they don't go down much. Otherwise you have to look at what is the support level of your stock price and decide if you still want hold on to the stock if it's break your support level.
I have talk to a few people on this crisis and all of them have different view on it's impact in Singapore Market. One say that Egypt economic has not much impact to the world economy, it just an internal issue of a country. The other few that if Egypt crisis is not handle properly then it might spread to the rest of the Middle East. Then USA and Europe might get worry and more selling of the stock might happen. One friend even tell me when Indonesia and Thailand have riots it does not has much impact to Singapore market. So is hard to say now how the situation is going to play out. Personally I don't think this crisis should last very long, but we have to be conscious of it's new development everyday and manage our risk in stock investment.
James Tai
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walkinepark
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jamestai wrote:Hi,
Just to clarify on my previous post, I don't mean to get you panic and start selling all your stock. There probably be some correction in STI tomorrow due to the concern of international community but that does not mean you have to sell all your stock. You to look at what stock you have and the tolerance level of loss that you can accept for each stock you hold. All of us buy at different price so if you need to ask yourself, what is your confident on the stock and at what price you like to hold on to it until you decide to cut loss. Stock like Frasercomm and Koh Brother, their price are very stubborn and trade in very tight range even when there is major market correction they don't go down much. Otherwise you have to look at what is the support level of your stock price and decide if you still want hold on to the stock if it's break your support level.
I have talk to a few people on this crisis and all of them have different view on it's impact in Singapore Market. One say that Egypt economic has not much impact to the world economy, it just an internal issue of a country. The other few that if Egypt crisis is not handle properly then it might spread to the rest of the Middle East. Then USA and Europe might get worry and more selling of the stock might happen. One friend even tell me when Indonesia and Thailand have riots it does not has much impact to Singapore market. So is hard to say now how the situation is going to play out. Personally I don't think this crisis should last very long, but we have to be conscious of it's new development everyday and manage our risk in stock investment.
James Tai
I will be taking the opportunity to buy some good stocks at a low price.
Hi James,jamestai wrote:Hi,
Just to clarify on my previous post, I don't mean to get you panic and start selling all your stock. There probably be some correction in STI tomorrow due to the concern of international community but that does not mean you have to sell all your stock. You to look at what stock you have and the tolerance level of loss that you can accept for each stock you hold. All of us buy at different price so if you need to ask yourself, what is your confident on the stock and at what price you like to hold on to it until you decide to cut loss. Stock like Frasercomm and Koh Brother, their price are very stubborn and trade in very tight range even when there is major market correction they don't go down much. Otherwise you have to look at what is the support level of your stock price and decide if you still want hold on to the stock if it's break your support level.
I have talk to a few people on this crisis and all of them have different view on it's impact in Singapore Market. One say that Egypt economic has not much impact to the world economy, it just an internal issue of a country. The other few that if Egypt crisis is not handle properly then it might spread to the rest of the Middle East. Then USA and Europe might get worry and more selling of the stock might happen. One friend even tell me when Indonesia and Thailand have riots it does not has much impact to Singapore market. So is hard to say now how the situation is going to play out. Personally I don't think this crisis should last very long, but we have to be conscious of it's new development everyday and manage our risk in stock investment.
James Tai
are you an investor or a Short Term Trader?
Frankly, NOTHING major change even if Egypt is in Crisis.
You said you asked a few people for comments. Remember I shared that before you asked anyone for comment, first ask yourself:"
1. is this person an expert in what you want to ask?
2. does this person has a vested interest which might affect his/her comments?
Dennis Ng wrote:Hi all,
Many people don't understand that becos I'm an investor, or more aptly called a Market Cycle Investor, that I don't really bother about short term (daily/weekly market movements). Why? The reason is through my 18 years of investing experience and observation I came to the ENLIGHTENMENT that MOST of the Profits come from identifying Major Change in Market Trends, which happens only once in a few years.
So I'm really not interested in daily or weekly fluctuations in prices, and I don't think anyone can consistently "predict" such short term movements. (P.S. which is why I think watching all these analyts analyse what happened to stock market yesterday on TV is a TOTAL Waste of Time) However, Major Market Trends, such as an Uptrend or Downtrend, can be estimated or PREDICTED quite accurately, and I have to say that by doing so, was how I amassed Millions in Investing, not through TRADING short term (whether daily or weekly) market movements.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng
Cheers!
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Hi Dennis,
I would say 10% of my stock holding I hold it for short term gain, the rest of 90% with good FA I hold it for long term and I will not be selling them because like you I believe the overall market is still uptrend and those stock will give me good capital gain later when the bull starting to run again. That is why I wanted to clarify with the people in the forum here that you need to look at what are the stock you are holding and the risk level that you can tolerate. And also like what Dennis has advise and ask yourself are you a short term or long term investor. Market going up and down is common and normal so don't panic and start selling all the good stock that you have.
James Tai
I would say 10% of my stock holding I hold it for short term gain, the rest of 90% with good FA I hold it for long term and I will not be selling them because like you I believe the overall market is still uptrend and those stock will give me good capital gain later when the bull starting to run again. That is why I wanted to clarify with the people in the forum here that you need to look at what are the stock you are holding and the risk level that you can tolerate. And also like what Dennis has advise and ask yourself are you a short term or long term investor. Market going up and down is common and normal so don't panic and start selling all the good stock that you have.
James Tai
I think what James suggests is to minimize the impact of this correction, sell first and buy back again when there is green signal for medium term cycle (another new rising cycle). During the 2nd stage of bull run, market is very volatile (eg. Sky Petrol - varying from 18 to 23 cents for several medium cycles), this strategy could provide additional protection, esp for new investors whose starting point is much higher (compared to those who went in around 2009).
I think both strategies will work during bull market (Index's mega trend for 100/200 day MA is moving upward):
1) Medium term trader: Buy/sell based on medium term cycle (eg. using 2/20/50 day MA)
2) Long term trader (market cycle investor): Buy/sell based on longer term cycle (eg. using 50/100/200 MA).
For strategy #1, one will likely to buy/sell every 1-3 months, relatively more stressful to trade when there is major good/bad news. This requires trading experience, a good compromise between short term trader and market cycle investor. This method has chance to buy again at lower price during correction, but may also buy at higher price if the mid-term rally comes too fast, but it has additional insurance if the market cycle (esp 6 months later) really has major reversal.
For strategy #2, it is relatively more relaxed, as long as buying during correction, just ignore the subsequent corrections, watching the long term MA once awhile for market's mega trend. This method has the advantage to capture the entire rise (from beginning to the end) of market cycle till when it is sold. It also requires less attn, no need to monitor daily, just observe on weekly basis, if there is clearer signal, only then change to daily. However, if the correction is significant, one has to prepare to accept paper losses while waiting for the next bigger rally.
Personally I plan to adopt a mixed of both strategies #1 & #2 (perhaps 50%/50%, depending on nature of individual stock) during the initial phase, mainly to build up the profit reserve to around 30% (against future correction, so that will not make a loss), then I will change to 100% long term when it comes to last phase of bull run (%return may be 50-100% in 2-3 months, very obvious) to maximize the growth, but will sell 100% when 50/100/200 MA tells me to do so). After that, I will quit from stock market for a few years, won't go in again even if 50/100/200 day MA showing recovery sign.
Again, we review the fundamental of economy: it is still very healthy, esp after US recovers (Obama has less than 1 year to show results before the next election end of this year) and China's recovery (2010 was the worst 3 in the world, likely 2011 will be top 3 since it is laggard stock market). Both Singapore and Malaysia likely will have general election this year, they won't choose a time when economy is turning bad, so the first 6 months of the year shd be very positive for regional market (gov likely to introduce policies favorable to economy - including interest rate increase or property tax to minimize the risk of investment bubble), while the second 6 months will require further analysis, see whether the economy is overheated (i.e. cooking with big fire - get burnt easily) or heated gradually (i.e. cooking with small fire - can last longer).
For manufacturing in Singapore, the outlook is very positive. Just imagine if the company (really happening) needs the manpower to work over Chinese New Year this week, the demand by the international market is very high, this will last for at least 6 months.
I think both strategies will work during bull market (Index's mega trend for 100/200 day MA is moving upward):
1) Medium term trader: Buy/sell based on medium term cycle (eg. using 2/20/50 day MA)
2) Long term trader (market cycle investor): Buy/sell based on longer term cycle (eg. using 50/100/200 MA).
For strategy #1, one will likely to buy/sell every 1-3 months, relatively more stressful to trade when there is major good/bad news. This requires trading experience, a good compromise between short term trader and market cycle investor. This method has chance to buy again at lower price during correction, but may also buy at higher price if the mid-term rally comes too fast, but it has additional insurance if the market cycle (esp 6 months later) really has major reversal.
For strategy #2, it is relatively more relaxed, as long as buying during correction, just ignore the subsequent corrections, watching the long term MA once awhile for market's mega trend. This method has the advantage to capture the entire rise (from beginning to the end) of market cycle till when it is sold. It also requires less attn, no need to monitor daily, just observe on weekly basis, if there is clearer signal, only then change to daily. However, if the correction is significant, one has to prepare to accept paper losses while waiting for the next bigger rally.
Personally I plan to adopt a mixed of both strategies #1 & #2 (perhaps 50%/50%, depending on nature of individual stock) during the initial phase, mainly to build up the profit reserve to around 30% (against future correction, so that will not make a loss), then I will change to 100% long term when it comes to last phase of bull run (%return may be 50-100% in 2-3 months, very obvious) to maximize the growth, but will sell 100% when 50/100/200 MA tells me to do so). After that, I will quit from stock market for a few years, won't go in again even if 50/100/200 day MA showing recovery sign.
Again, we review the fundamental of economy: it is still very healthy, esp after US recovers (Obama has less than 1 year to show results before the next election end of this year) and China's recovery (2010 was the worst 3 in the world, likely 2011 will be top 3 since it is laggard stock market). Both Singapore and Malaysia likely will have general election this year, they won't choose a time when economy is turning bad, so the first 6 months of the year shd be very positive for regional market (gov likely to introduce policies favorable to economy - including interest rate increase or property tax to minimize the risk of investment bubble), while the second 6 months will require further analysis, see whether the economy is overheated (i.e. cooking with big fire - get burnt easily) or heated gradually (i.e. cooking with small fire - can last longer).
For manufacturing in Singapore, the outlook is very positive. Just imagine if the company (really happening) needs the manpower to work over Chinese New Year this week, the demand by the international market is very high, this will last for at least 6 months.
Hi ein55,
most of us are very busy, holding full-time jobs. For myself, I own 3 businesses, during daytime, I focus my energy on my business and other matters and might not have time to monitor market.
Thus, in my opinion, for most people, we can't adopt Strategy 1, becos it calls for more constant monitoring.
Furthermore, there can be many "whipsaws", market go up and down in days and weeks, and if one sell stocks, one might have problem finding a Good Opportunity to get back in if the Correction is not steep enough.
So personally, I adopt strategy 2, and this is how I reached Millionaire status, a very relaxing way to invest, requiring very little time and energy. Most of my sifus adopt strategy 2 as well, becos we are just "part-time investors", having full time job or business.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng
most of us are very busy, holding full-time jobs. For myself, I own 3 businesses, during daytime, I focus my energy on my business and other matters and might not have time to monitor market.
Thus, in my opinion, for most people, we can't adopt Strategy 1, becos it calls for more constant monitoring.
Furthermore, there can be many "whipsaws", market go up and down in days and weeks, and if one sell stocks, one might have problem finding a Good Opportunity to get back in if the Correction is not steep enough.
So personally, I adopt strategy 2, and this is how I reached Millionaire status, a very relaxing way to invest, requiring very little time and energy. Most of my sifus adopt strategy 2 as well, becos we are just "part-time investors", having full time job or business.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng
ein55 wrote:I think what James suggests is to minimize the impact of this correction, sell first and buy back again when there is green signal for medium term cycle (another new rising cycle). During the 2nd stage of bull run, market is very volatile (eg. Sky Petrol - varying from 18 to 23 cents for several medium cycles), this strategy could provide additional protection, esp for new investors whose starting point is much higher (compared to those who went in around 2009).
I think both strategies will work during bull market (Index's mega trend for 100/200 day MA is moving upward):
1) Medium term trader: Buy/sell based on medium term cycle (eg. using 2/20/50 day MA)
2) Long term trader (market cycle investor): Buy/sell based on longer term cycle (eg. using 50/100/200 MA).
For strategy #1, one will likely to buy/sell every 1-3 months, relatively more stressful to trade when there is major good/bad news. This requires trading experience, a good compromise between short term trader and market cycle investor. This method has chance to buy again at lower price during correction, but may also buy at higher price if the mid-term rally comes too fast, but it has additional insurance if the market cycle (esp 6 months later) really has major reversal.
For strategy #2, it is relatively more relaxed, as long as buying during correction, just ignore the subsequent corrections, watching the long term MA once awhile for market's mega trend. This method has the advantage to capture the entire rise (from beginning to the end) of market cycle till when it is sold. It also requires less attn, no need to monitor daily, just observe on weekly basis, if there is clearer signal, only then change to daily. However, if the correction is significant, one has to prepare to accept paper losses while waiting for the next bigger rally.
Personally I plan to adopt a mixed of both strategies #1 & #2 (perhaps 50%/50%, depending on nature of individual stock) during the initial phase, mainly to build up the profit reserve to around 30% (against future correction, so that will not make a loss), then I will change to 100% long term when it comes to last phase of bull run (%return may be 50-100% in 2-3 months, very obvious) to maximize the growth, but will sell 100% when 50/100/200 MA tells me to do so). After that, I will quit from stock market for a few years, won't go in again even if 50/100/200 day MA showing recovery sign.
Again, we review the fundamental of economy: it is still very healthy, esp after US recovers (Obama has less than 1 year to show results before the next election end of this year) and China's recovery (2010 was the worst 3 in the world, likely 2011 will be top 3 since it is laggard stock market). Both Singapore and Malaysia likely will have general election this year, they won't choose a time when economy is turning bad, so the first 6 months of the year shd be very positive for regional market (gov likely to introduce policies favorable to economy - including interest rate increase or property tax to minimize the risk of investment bubble), while the second 6 months will require further analysis, see whether the economy is overheated (i.e. cooking with big fire - get burnt easily) or heated gradually (i.e. cooking with small fire - can last longer).
For manufacturing in Singapore, the outlook is very positive. Just imagine if the company (really happening) needs the manpower to work over Chinese New Year this week, the demand by the international market is very high, this will last for at least 6 months.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Hi all,
one more point to note just in case some may not be following the news, just yesterday the Non-farm payroll from the US came out and it shows the the US economy is growing better than expected. The unemployment rate drop to 9%.
Though it may not cause our friend Mr Ben in the Fed to cut back on his QE II, there could be light at the end of the tunnel before the next darker tunnel (2012 maybe?)
Do treat the news with a pitch of a salt as there are just too many noise in the market. Focus on what is the investment objective and horizon couple with what we learnt from Dennis and what is shared on this forum, I think we should be fine. The people on this forum are generally genuine to help one another.
one more point to note just in case some may not be following the news, just yesterday the Non-farm payroll from the US came out and it shows the the US economy is growing better than expected. The unemployment rate drop to 9%.
Though it may not cause our friend Mr Ben in the Fed to cut back on his QE II, there could be light at the end of the tunnel before the next darker tunnel (2012 maybe?)
Do treat the news with a pitch of a salt as there are just too many noise in the market. Focus on what is the investment objective and horizon couple with what we learnt from Dennis and what is shared on this forum, I think we should be fine. The people on this forum are generally genuine to help one another.
The best is yet to be
Finally Mubarak has stepped down, 2nd time in 1 month - gov is changed by power of people, after Tunisia. Will there be a 3rd country following the same step? May be ....
Market will be very volatile this year. Since "alert" by James on Jan 30, STI has been down by 100. Both decisions could be right:
1) Sell first, buy back later. For this case, it turns out to be a good decision because Egypt case was compounded by interest rate increase in China. However, the risk is the buyer may not re-enter at the lowest point of the mid cycle (eg. is yesterday's market a reversal point?)
2) Hold, do nothing. Short term risk is higher (short term profit is reduced), although long term prospect is strong. Investor should not watch too much news during this period if one prepares to hold during correction phase.
Dow Jones is standing on peak of 2 years high. Singapore is still behind, shd catch up next week (Egypt's good news was too late for Friday market). Diversification of investment between Singapore and US will be a good strategy, esp to minimize the impact of local news.
More company will announce Q4 results this month, if positive, likely will be used as an excuse to push up the price. Feb 18 ... Singapore budget likely will bring some positive news.
We can expect there will be more similar corrections in the next 1 year, every 1-3 months..... index may go up 10% in 1 month, then down by 5% in 1 month, then go up another 5%.
"Enjoy" the mild rollercoaster ride, it is just warming up. The most thrilling part is the last phase when it is moving up to the highest point.
Market will be very volatile this year. Since "alert" by James on Jan 30, STI has been down by 100. Both decisions could be right:
1) Sell first, buy back later. For this case, it turns out to be a good decision because Egypt case was compounded by interest rate increase in China. However, the risk is the buyer may not re-enter at the lowest point of the mid cycle (eg. is yesterday's market a reversal point?)
2) Hold, do nothing. Short term risk is higher (short term profit is reduced), although long term prospect is strong. Investor should not watch too much news during this period if one prepares to hold during correction phase.
Dow Jones is standing on peak of 2 years high. Singapore is still behind, shd catch up next week (Egypt's good news was too late for Friday market). Diversification of investment between Singapore and US will be a good strategy, esp to minimize the impact of local news.
More company will announce Q4 results this month, if positive, likely will be used as an excuse to push up the price. Feb 18 ... Singapore budget likely will bring some positive news.
We can expect there will be more similar corrections in the next 1 year, every 1-3 months..... index may go up 10% in 1 month, then down by 5% in 1 month, then go up another 5%.
"Enjoy" the mild rollercoaster ride, it is just warming up. The most thrilling part is the last phase when it is moving up to the highest point.