Prof Chan on middle east crisis

[jeffreychua]

曾渊沧：中东乱局埋滞胀炸弹 美复苏受阻

来源：腾讯 2011年02月23日

中东、北非的局势越来越糟，产油国利比亚已经开始失控，德国、英国的石油公司已经开始撤走员工。换言之，油田停产了，石油、黄金价格狂升不在话下。很多年前，利比亚狂人卡达菲公开支持回教恐怖分子，以金钱支持他们，导致突然有一天，美国战斗机出现在卡达菲官邸上空进行轰炸，企图炸死他。不过卡达菲命大，没有死，但也从此不敢再如此狂野了， 2003年更开始与西方国家打交道，因此，今日美国与欧洲的石油公司都在利比亚开采石油。这次的中东、北非乱局令美国很头痛，因为当地是全球石油出口最多的区域，石油价格飞升会导致百物价格一起上涨，今日的美国正处于经济衰退末期、经济复苏初期，如果石油价格再继续飞涨，将使到美国出现经济学家所谓的滞胀。

美复苏受阻不利股市


甚么是滞胀？滞胀就是恶性通货膨胀与经济衰退同时发生，上个世纪 70年代就发生过一次，起因也是石油价格突然飞涨。从经济学的简单供给需求理论来看，物价上升的起因不外乎需求增加或供给减少，需求增加导致物价上涨的问题不大，因为需求增加表示经济繁荣，人们手上的钱多了，当然，钱多也可能是钞票印得多，若是因为经济繁荣而导致物价上升，民怨不会太深，唯一要照顾的是竞争力差的弱势社群。但是，如果物价上升是因为供给短缺，那么，就是全民痛苦，除了极少数炒家通过炒作短缺的物资而发财之外，因为供给短缺的同时，社会上绝大部份的人收入没有增加，如何应付高涨的物价？收入没增加而物价上升，结果是减少消费，人人减少消费的结果是经济衰退。如果美国经济复苏因油价飞升而受阻，对全球股市都不利。幸好，目前正值上市企业公布业绩的时期，盈利大增的企业可以使到股价显得比较便宜， PE值大幅降低，增加投资的吸引力。

[Stradlinz]

Hi any kind soul willing to summarize the important points in English? Thks!

[Dennis Ng]

Hi any kind soul willing to summarize the important points in English? Thks!

I'll do a quick (might not be totally accurate) translation:

Middle East, North Africa, the situation is getting worse, Libya has begun to get out of control.

Oil-producing countries, Germany, the UK oil company have begun the withdrawal of staff. In other words, oil field shutdown, and oil and gold prices rocketed inevitably.

Many years ago, Libya, Gaddafi openly supporting Islamic terrorists, lunatics, with money to support them, resulting in a sudden attack by U.S. fighter jets bombing Gaddafi's official residence in an attempt to kill him.

But Gaddafi was lucky, not dead, but also from then on not so wild again, and also started in 2003 dealing with the West, so today the United States and the European oil companies have investments in Libya and are drilling for oil in Libya.

The Middle East, North Africa, chaos in the United States was a headache, because Middle East Region is the world's largest regional oil exports, oil prices will lead to soaring prices of goods and services.

Today's U.S. economic recession is near the end and at the beginning of economic recovery, if oil prices continue soaring, the United States will go into stagflation. (Hi all, do you remember that I (Dennis Ng) have said many times in my seminar, that Stagflation is a possible Scenario for U.S. and the world?)

Stagflation would hinder stock market recovery


What is stagflation? Stagflation is high inflation with economic recession.

This also occurred in the last century in 1970s, was the cause of soaring oil prices then.

From an economic point of view the simple theory of supply and demand, if
prices rise is due to increase in demand, it is healthy and not a problem.

Because the increased demand means economic prosperity, people have more money on hand, of course, more money may also be printed. If as a result of price increases economic prosperity, people's grievances will not be too deep, the only thing needed to be done is to take care of the disadvantaged poor.

However, if prices rise because of supply shortages, then, this is the universal pain, with majority of people suffering and very few speculators benefitting by getting rich through shortage of material.

At the same time because of supply shortages, the vast majority of people in society did not increase income, how to deal with rising prices?

Income did not increase prices, the result is to reduce consumption, reduction in consumption result in an economic recession.

If the U.S. economic recovery was hampered due to soaring oil prices, the impact on global stock markets are negative.

Fortunately, currently is the period of announcement of financial results. When the performance of listed companies are good during the announcement, when companies report increase in profits resulting in lowering of PE ratio, this increases the attractiveness of stocks as investments.

[Stradlinz]

Thks Dennis! Really appreciate it

[djwongdj]

Thanks Dennis!