My friend attended one of the trading course conducted by a well know trader in option and he also trade commodities for more than 10 years.
He aslo told the students that April 2011 is the bull cycle for silver, afterwhich in May 2011 silver will drop.
He also mentioned to the students that one need to understand the cycle of commodities and it is essential to analyse past 25 years historical price.
I was wondering what he mentioned to the students will it come into realisation in May 2011 that silve will start to drop?
Peak cycle in commodities
Moderators: alvin, learner, Dennis Ng
Re: Peak cycle in commodities
remember I often said:"if a person knows the exact timing, he's either God or..."wendy phoa wrote:My friend attended one of the trading course conducted by a well know trader in option and he also trade commodities for more than 10 years.
He aslo told the students that April 2011 is the bull cycle for silver, afterwhich in May 2011 silver will drop.
He also mentioned to the students that one need to understand the cycle of commodities and it is essential to analyse past 25 years historical price.
I was wondering what he mentioned to the students will it come into realisation in May 2011 that silve will start to drop?
P.S. I don't want to complete the sentence, in case I'm being accused of anything.
Always ask a person WHY he/she holds a view, if the person cannot clearly explain, then...
Cheers!
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
I find that it is important to be very discriminating (not negative) when it comes to evaluating any information that comes our way.
Such statement or foresight can be put up initially as a hypothesis or a assumption at best.
Perhaps after that, maybe systematically think through the following:
- Evaluate the statement based on the soundness of its reasoning
- Evaluate the statement from other sources, for correlation
- Evaluate any underlying reason for the person giving the statement.
Just sharing my ideas.
Such statement or foresight can be put up initially as a hypothesis or a assumption at best.
Perhaps after that, maybe systematically think through the following:
- Evaluate the statement based on the soundness of its reasoning
- Evaluate the statement from other sources, for correlation
- Evaluate any underlying reason for the person giving the statement.
Just sharing my ideas.
This trader may be right from TA point of view to observe the pattern of gold/silver market cycle. However, he ignores the FA which could continue to support gold/silver with 2x potential.
Nothing is absolute, this trader could be right to see major correction of gold/silver in next few months as both setting historical high $, but even so, this may not be the collapse of the market. Eg. gold was down by about 30% in 2009, it may be viewed as a collapse at that time, but now it is only considered a correction. Our view will change depending on the current standing point.
Similar for stock, STI of 3800 was considered very high and risky. When STI is above 4000, the last high will become history. This is perfectly possible for all the markets: equity, bond, commodity to reach new high every few years, not just because of inflation, but also the world population has increased, number of investors have increased (stock index peak level may be correlated to number of new trading accounts), therefore available hot$ for capital is also getting more.
China is a good example, not only the population is No 1, the rate of increase in new investors may be also growing fast, together with booming economy, there is no surprise if SSEC exceeds 6000 points to the next level (eg. 10000) one day.
Nothing is absolute, this trader could be right to see major correction of gold/silver in next few months as both setting historical high $, but even so, this may not be the collapse of the market. Eg. gold was down by about 30% in 2009, it may be viewed as a collapse at that time, but now it is only considered a correction. Our view will change depending on the current standing point.
Similar for stock, STI of 3800 was considered very high and risky. When STI is above 4000, the last high will become history. This is perfectly possible for all the markets: equity, bond, commodity to reach new high every few years, not just because of inflation, but also the world population has increased, number of investors have increased (stock index peak level may be correlated to number of new trading accounts), therefore available hot$ for capital is also getting more.
China is a good example, not only the population is No 1, the rate of increase in new investors may be also growing fast, together with booming economy, there is no surprise if SSEC exceeds 6000 points to the next level (eg. 10000) one day.