Why need to wait 10 Trading days to confirm change in Trend?

[Dennis Ng]

My only question is....why do you advocate waiting for the STI to go below 3000 for 10 days before liquidating totally ? In 10 days, won't the value be VERY significantly wiped out ? Is this 10 day guide based on historical precedence ?

Hi moneyisfreedom,

you don't just sell immediately but wait for at least 10 CONSECUTIVE Trading Days that STI goes below 3,000 level is becos there are "false alarms" from time to time. Last year May 2010, STI went below 200 day Moving Average for close to 1 month before moving higher from Jul to Oct 2010. This is possible to happen this time round AGAIN.

No even if you sell after 10 days, you're selling stocks at around 3,000 level, but if the overall Market Trend turns from uptrend to downtrend, STI can go all the way down to 1,600 (50% down from 3,200 level), so you would have still avoided a Large Part of the Stock Market Crash.

I can see many seminar graduates are like "Chicken Little" who start to worry and panic when market down 10%..come on, market down 10% is called a Correction...please go and refer to any Market Chart from year 2007 to Mar 2009 to understand what is a Stock Market Crash.

P.S. in fact, STI only went down 4.4% from 3,200 to 3,059.

If people cannot even tolerate 10% to 20% movement in stock prices, my advice to those people is then they should just stick to Bank Fixed Deposits that pay 1% steadily and steadily lose 3.5% per year if inflation rate is 4.5% per year.

On the other hand, I reached S$1 million by end of year 2008 and reached my 2nd Million dollars by 1 Nov 2010 (in 1 years 10 months). So please don't learn from me, learn from your old self or your neighbours and colleagues, go back to your old routine of just putting money in Fixed Deposits.

Volatility is Risk. Yes, this is what textbook teach, follow textbooks and see whether you'll be Richer or Poorer over time.

Volatility to me is Money Making Opportunity. Many people still cannot even grasp what I shared in "Path to Financial Freedom Workshop" nor in my other seminars, no wonder my sifu warned me I'm wasting my time trying to teach and educate. He said I should just keep all these knowledge to myself since many are not convinced or willing to be open minded enough to "empty their cups" to learn.

[Battleship]

Hi Dennis,

I just would like to say at least you have not wasted your time on me. Franking speaking, due to your teaching and my observation on the market, I’m NOT afraid of the current market correction at all. Worst case is I sell off all my stocks @ STI 2900 plus pts when the markets tell me so, and waiting to multiple my net worth 2 to 3 times when the markets bottom. In fact, I can’t wait the market to crash. Once again, thanks for your selfless teaching and sharing.

[Jasper]

Good morning Dennis sifu,
your temperature seem high from your response .
I guess you are not frustrate and hope you are not.

Teaching and coaching is a long journey, your are not able to clone many 'Dennis" over a short years.
Just like 孔子, from his years of teaching and coaching, he only managed to groom "四圣, 十哲, 七十二贤".

I have noticed you have spent your late night and early morning on this forum, thank you very much for your effort and guidance.
And those coaching/response have benefits many people.

Once again, thank you very much.
Enojoy your "Father week"
Best Regards
Jasper

[Dennis Ng]

On 13 Jun 2011, I posted that if last 2 months' market fall was a correction, then a recovery in stock prices is NOT far away.

It seems like Magic. On 14 Jun 2011, Dow after falling consecutive 7 days in a row, went up 123.14 points or 1% to close above 12,000 level, closing at 12,076.11.

Are you still buying or sell stocks based on Greed, Hope and Fear?

Hope is NOT a Strategy.

I make my investment decisions based on FA, TA, CSA (Common Sense Analysis) and MPA (Market Psychology Analysis) and try to see "Invisible Hands" in the market. How do you make your investment decisions, whether to Buy, Sell or Hold?

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

Hi everyone,

actually with the markets falling for consecutive 6 weeks, if this is just a Market Correction and NOT a Turn of Markets from Uptrend to Downtrend, a Recovery in stock prices is not far away and may happen this week or next.

Mark my words and check in 1 to 2 weeks from now. However, if STI falls below 3,000 points for over 10 trading days, then get ready to head for the exit as it might signal the turning of market from uptrend to downtrend.

This year is Rabbit year, to make money, need to learn to be nimble like the Rabbit.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

[Dennis Ng]

Hi jasper,

the FACT is there are things I've already taught in the Seminar (if cannot remember can refer to seminar notes); and yet I've to keep repeat, repeat and repeat in this forum.

And it is quite obvious to me that some people are NOT open to learning, becos it appears that they did NOT empty their Cups, so how can any water go in?

I'm not talking about moneyisfreedom, he/she is learning, I can tell.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

Good morning Dennis sifu,
your temperature seem high from your response .
I guess you are not frustrate and hope you are not.

Teaching and coaching is a long journey, your are not able to clone many 'Dennis" over a short years.
Just like 孔子, from his years of teaching and coaching, he only managed to groom "四圣, 十哲, 七十二贤".

I have noticed you have spent your late night and early morning on this forum, thank you very much for your effort and guidance.
And those coaching/response have benefits many people.

Once again, thank you very much.
Enojoy your "Father week"
Best Regards
Jasper

[jfoo2]

When market drop the past few days, I think many people are worried and fear has set in. I guess it really takes experience and constant learning to learn investing.

Anyway, this Forum is great...it helps to rationalise some of the happenings in the stock market. Otherwise, I think I may be guessing things myself.

So, please continue to share, Dennis. It is very much appreciated.

[Dennis Ng]

When market drop the past few days, I think many people are worried and fear has set in. I guess it really takes experience and constant learning to learn investing.

Anyway, this Forum is great...it helps to rationalise some of the happenings in the stock market. Otherwise, I think I may be guessing things myself.

So, please continue to share, Dennis. It is very much appreciated.

Hi jfoo2,
no worries, I will continue to share.

To all seminar graduates,

I can be a little harsh with my comments sometimes, I hope none of you take it personally, as it's just a case of trying to use all kinds of methods, eg. including scolding, blunt comments to try to drive across certain messages, becos sometimes if the message is too subtle, some people might NOT get the seriousness of what I shared.

I'm not a good teacher, no one taught me how to be teacher, so I'm also learning to teach, in as best a way I can. So my apologies, if I did not do too well as a teacher.

But I remember that some of my "sifus" used some harsh words and blunt comments, and they managed to "wake me up" and I thought of emulating them when I now teach.

[jamestai]

Hi Everybody,

As long as you don't borrow money from Dennis, don't be afraid to call, email and sms Dennis if you really need financial and investment advise. You can be sure he will be very frank and truthful to you. Don't be afraid to challenge him but if you do that then don't take his word personally, he does not force you to believe him but he will speak his mind to you.

Beware, sometime he can be very long winded because he wanted to tell you everything he know and get excited and emotional on certain topic. So don't be afraid to tell him directly that you need him to stop . I am sure he will not be offended.

The unfortunate thing is there is only 1 Dennis and he already overwhelm with his seminars almost everyday. So the best way to get his attention or seek his advise is through this forum.

James Tai

[wemakebread]

Hi Everybody,

Beware, sometime he can be very long winded because he wanted to tell you everything he know and get excited and emotional on certain topic. So don't be afraid to tell him directly that you need him to stop . I am sure he will not be offended.

James Tai

We should be grateful to teachers who are "long-winded" and listen carefully to the message he is trying to convey.
Quite often, Dennis is actually sharing his own thought process, his considerations, and how he eventually arrives at the conclusion.
Would I rather learn from someone who only tell me to BUY, SELL or HOLD? It will be difficult for me to learn & grow without understanding the "why".

We should also recognize the fact that most of us have "emotional baggage" and bad experiences from the past, myself included.
But it will be illogical to repeat the same thought process, do the same action while expecting to get a different result.
Therefore we need to UNLEARN (empty the cup), LEARN (wash the cup clean) and RELEARN (fill the cup with fresh drink).
Revision (reading the notes, asking questions) helps us reinforce the new way of thinking, which leads us to analyze a situation differently.

We are all fellow classmates in this life-long learning journey, and this forum has made it so much easier for exchange of ideas & for Dennis himself to contribute. I feel that it is really important to have an open mind in order to tap on this wealth of knowledge and get the most benefit.

Besides an open mind, a spirit of thanksgiving and gratefulness will also help us better appreciate the ideas being contributed here and promote culture of sharing.

[Dennis Ng]

Hi Everybody,

Beware, sometime he can be very long winded because he wanted to tell you everything he know and get excited and emotional on certain topic. So don't be afraid to tell him directly that you need him to stop . I am sure he will not be offended.

James Tai

We should be grateful to teachers who are "long-winded" and listen carefully to the message he is trying to convey.
Quite often, Dennis is actually sharing his own thought process, his considerations, and how he eventually arrives at the conclusion.
Would I rather learn from someone who only tell me to BUY, SELL or HOLD? It will be difficult for me to learn & grow without understanding the "why".

We should also recognize the fact that most of us have "emotional baggage" and bad experiences from the past, myself included.
But it will be illogical to repeat the same thought process, do the same action while expecting to get a different result.
Therefore we need to UNLEARN (empty the cup), LEARN (wash the cup clean) and RELEARN (fill the cup with fresh drink).
Revision (reading the notes, asking questions) helps us reinforce the new way of thinking, which leads us to analyze a situation differently.

We are all fellow classmates in this life-long learning journey, and this forum has made it so much easier for exchange of ideas & for Dennis himself to contribute. I feel that it is really important to have an open mind in order to tap on this wealth of knowledge and get the most benefit.

Besides an open mind, a spirit of thanksgiving and gratefulness will also help us better appreciate the ideas being contributed here and promote culture of sharing.

Hi James tai and wemakebread,

keep up the sharing in this forum. I'm sure many have benefitted from your sharing.

JamesTai is also right in the observation that sometimes I can be long-winded...but then again, sometimes I'm forced to repeat myself becos people keep asking the same things over and over again in different discussion threads.