A Real Investor already factored in possible downside risks to investment and for UK Traded Endowment, exchange rate of UK Sterling Pounds is a risk of this investment, this should be Crystal Clear to all investors. A Real Investor always ask themselves 2 questions:GCONG wrote:Everyone heard the news recently. Britain is the only nation to reject a tighter fiscal alliance in the bloc aimed at ending Europe's worst financial crisis in generations, while 26 other EU members approved changes to the bloc treaty.Dennis Ng wrote:nobody has crystal ball and can predict exchange rates in 5 years' time.wchan8888 wrote:Since the investment and payout is in British pound, would like to seek some advise on following.
- how do we assess the currency exchange risk ?
- is the long term prospect for pound stable (at least) ?
Thanks for advise.
As what I learned from Jim Rogers, is to have a historical perspective. After doing some homework, I realise that currently sterling pounds is trading at lowest level against S$ in the last 20 to 30 years.
There'll be Olympic in London in year 2012, thus, the next few years for UK should be better, not worse, and thus, in my opinion, the likelihood of sterling pounds going lower is very low, and of it going higher is higher.
Personally, recently I added my investment into UK Traded Endowment to take advantage of the current low exchange rate.
How to mitigate risks? I do so by putting my "eggs" (money) in different baskets. I invested about 11% of my money into UK Traded Endowment, so anything adverse happens, only affects a portion of my entire wealth (overall portfolio). The Rich invest on a Portfolio basis, this is something I learn from the Rich.
Even if sterling pounds drops, there is still a buffer, since the annual returns of 5% to 8% of UK Endowment can withstand some loss in exchange rate before you would really be losing money.
Assuming annual returns of 5%, and a 5 years UK Traded Endowment, means I have a buffer of 25% adverse movement of sterling pounds against S$ before I lose money. It is sufficient buffer for me. (Just my personal opinion).
Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg warned 'there is a danger that the UK will be isolated and marginalised within the European Union'.
Will this translate to a danger on the strength of sterling pounds in future, and thus my investment in UK traded endowment?
1. what if I'm wrong, will I be financially ok?
2. What's the upside potential, what's the downside risks? Is upside at least double downside?
When I asked myself these questions, UK Traded Endowment fulfill both Criteria and that is why I invest (about quarter million dollars) into UK Traded Endowment.
Since the announcement till now, UK Sterling pounds exchange rate has remained stable, and actually, there is a possibility that 2 years from NOW, there will NO longer be Euro.
I personally think that it is easy for the 26 nations to say yes to German's proposal on Fiscal Policy Discipline, but it is almost impossible to implement, and the people in Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal may overthrow the government when further austerity measures are implemented.
So anyone thinking that Europe's problem is solved by this latest "agreement" I think is just trying to delude themselves.
Brace yourself for the Next Global Financial Crisis. In a Crisis, when stock prices fall 50%, property prices fall 30%. On the other hand, you enjoy 100% Capital Guarantee on the Cash Value of UK Traded Endowment, that's the main reason I Invest into UK Traded Endowment, for the Capital Guarantee in case of Global Uncertainties.
And whatever happened would actually reinforce the reason why I personally invest into UK Traded Endowment.