Currency War - books written by Song Hong Bing

[Dennis Ng]

Recently, I read a Chinese book entitled "Currency War Book 2" 《货币战争2》written by 宋鸿兵. In my personal opinion, I find this guy has a very good grasp of the Global Situation. His main "theory" is that a "Currency war" is something that U.S. had used in the past, to "defeat Japan" (Japan economy since the Asset Bubble burst in 1989 has NOT recovered. In 1997, U.S. also used the same strategy to defeat the 4 "dragons" including South East Asia through the Asian Financial Crisis.

Similarly, year 2010's Europe's Crisis is also another way U.S. "defeat Euro" as a possible replacement for US$ as Global Reserve Currency.

I shared the same views with him on above events which is why when I read more and more of the articles he wrote, the more I worry about the Global Financial Situation.

If this "currency War/Crisis" is not handled well, it can easily trigger the Next Global Financial Crisis", which might be in late year 2011 or year 2012...the exact timing I have NO idea (if I tell you I know, then obviously I'm just a con man).

The key for us as individuals is to be Prepared Financially for the possibility of different Scenarios Materialising....including Depression, Inflation, Stagflation, which is why I keep repeating that do NOT put all your eggs in One Basket (eg. Stocks or Bonds or properties or just Cash).

In a Crisis, you need to have some of your money invested into Investments with Capital Guarantee. This is why I have close to S$200,000 invested into UK Traded Endowment (which comes under the Guarantee and Protection of the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme).

Invest into different Assets, in order to make sure that you will Survive through any possible Financial Situation (Crisis), whether it will turn into a Depression (negative economic growth and falling Stock and Property Prices); Inflation (rising Commodity and Property Prices but with fall in stock markets); Stagflation (slow anaemic economic growth coupled with High Inflation (rising Commodity and Property prices with Fall in stock markets).

The most important question is:"Is your Financial Portfolio structured for these different scenarios?" It better be, because we are entering into very Interesting Times (Unprecedented, can throw away all your economic Textbooks).

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

His blog is here:
http://shb.caogen.com/

宋鸿兵简介:

环球财经研究院院长。20世纪90年代初赴美留学，主修信息工程和教育学，获美利坚大学（American University）硕士学位。长期关注和研究美国历史和世界金融史。曾在美国媒体游说公司、医疗业、电信业、信息安全、联邦政府和著名金融机构供职。近年来，作者曾担任美国最大的非银行类金融机构房利美（Fannie Mae）和房地美(Freddie Mac)的高级咨询顾问，主要从事房地产贷款自动审核系统设计，金融衍生工具的税务计算分析，MBS(资产抵押债券)的风险评估等方面的工作。

是到了债权人拍桌子的时候了 2010-10-27

　　3年前，宋鸿兵首次提出“货币战争”一词，当时许多人都在讽刺他，说“货币战争”是个有语病的名词。可最近，全世界都开始讨论“货币战争”。

　　一周前，巴西财长曼特加中说：“我们正处于一场国际性的货币战争中，各国货币普遍贬值，这对我们形成了威胁，因为它降低了我们的竞争力。”

　　10月8日，国际货币基金组织和世界银行年会在华盛顿召开。有关“世界面临货币战争”“人民币低估引发世界货币战争”等论调滚滚而来，汇率问题成了年会的主要议题。

　　15日，美国财长盖特纳表示，对货币市场的干预不会导致全球货币战。他同时承认，人民币已升值3%，并推迟原定于当日公布的主要贸易对象的《国际经济和汇率政策报告》，该报告将在下个月美国国会期中选举和二十国集团（G20）峰会结束之后再公布。

　　宋鸿兵则撰文称，这场全球范围的货币战争，发起者是美国，打击对象主要是中国。早在2007年，宋鸿兵就在其着作《货币战争》一书中预言“对中国下手，绝不是会不会的问题，而是什么时候，以什么方式的问题。”

　　此前，美国曾运用“货币战”的手段，打压拉美、东南亚、日本等国家和地区，并取得成功。这一次，美国对人民币发动的“货币战”会怎么样？

　　不流血的财富掠夺

　　北方周末报：在当前语境下，所谓的“货币战争”如何理解？

　　宋鸿兵：“货币战争”其实就是财富战争，战争的本质是为了掠夺财富，“货币战争”比其他战争的“文明”之处在于是以不流血的手段掠夺财富。

　　北方周末报：一些国家和地区都曾在美国发动的“货币战争”中陷入过危机。年初，美国还用隐性手段打击过欧元。这次美国为何将矛盾指向了中国？

　　宋鸿兵：中国作为新兴大国，构成了对美国在世界既有地位的潜在危险与挑战，正如哈佛大学教授弗格森指出的那样：“当今的中美关系，非常类似19世纪末 20世纪初英德之间的战略博弈关系。” 霸权国家势必对潜在的战略对手进行政治、经济、军事及地缘等全方面的围堵。货币构成了当今主权国家多维立体的国际安全体系中的重要一维。

　　北方周末报：货币战为何是美国打击对手驾轻就熟的手段？其他国家无法对其进行制约吗？

　　宋鸿兵：美国是世界上金融最发达的国家。美元是世界储备货币。因此，牢牢占据世界金融的战略制高点，并在这一态势下以金融为手段，向各国发动“货币战争”，构成了美国效率最高、费用最少、成效最大的战略利器。

　　其他国家若想有效制约美国，必须团结起来。但因为各国利益取向不同，使得美国得以使用分化瓦解的策略给予各个击破，如同当年秦灭六国之时，而六国无法有效组织抵抗，致使逐个败亡。

　　美国的“阴谋”

　　北方周末报：人民币的适度升值对中国促进内需，调整经济结构以及抑制通货膨胀有一定的正面意义。但如何把握这种适度？

　　宋鸿兵：首先是时机问题。当华尔街在中国所进行的银行业战略投资获得数十倍的暴利，并已分批套现之时，人民币的任何升值行动，无疑将造成中国财富的更大流失；第二是条件问题。有人认为，人民币升值将促使技术进步和产业升级，但这种发展需要具备相应的条件，只有当技术积累，人才储备，资本市场对接和法律体系健全等诸多条件逐步完善的条件下，产业升级才具备基本基础。在上述条件尚未充分具备之时，人民币升值行为将挤压企业盈利空间，未谋其利，先受其害。

　　北方周末报：美国人想让人民币短期内大幅升值，具体有哪些手段？这对美国失衡的贸易结构及债务难题有帮助吗？

　　宋鸿兵：主要手段是试图通过中国对外贸企业大规模失业的担忧和恐惧，实施心理战，以达成华尔街在金融市场上进行巨额套利的战略行动。简单地说，美国采取的是典型的声东击西战术。其实人民币升值，既不能从根本上改变贸易逆差的现状，又不能使美国成本过高而已经空心化的加工制造业重新获得就业增长。对于债务问题，人民币升值可以有效地稀释美国的债务，并给中国造成巨大的资本损失。

　　北方周末报：目前，哪些国家在操纵本币贬值，使“货币战争”逐渐扩散到全球范围？

　　宋鸿兵：美国，日本，韩国，欧元区都在竞相贬值，其中最大的操纵国是美国。正是美国通过所谓量化宽松货币资产，稀释美元的购买力，操纵了美元贬值，致使全球外汇市场出现空前的混乱，继而点燃了“货币战争”的烽烟。

　　北方周末报：这场全球性的“货币战争”能预测到结果吗？

　　宋鸿兵：由于世界各国对美国霸权的恐惧和美元体系的依赖，美国将在这场货币战争中实现其主要战略目的，留给世界各国的是痛苦、愤怒和无奈。不过美国的这种霸道行径，从长远来看，将削弱美元的信用道德基础，进而加速美元的衰落。

　　北方周末报：接下来该怎么办，中国政府如何运用反制手段？

　　宋鸿兵：国防大学金一南将军曾说过一句令人印象深刻的话：“什么叫战略威慑？一是你要有实力；二是你要有决心使用这种实力；三是你要让对手相信你敢于使用你的实力！”

　　作为债权人，中国的被动不是出在实力不够，而是使用实力的决心不够，至少没有让美国这个债务人相信这一点。也许，是到了债权人拍桌子的时候了。

　　“谁掌握了货币发行权谁就掌握了世界”

　　北方周末报：为何要写《货币战争》这本书？之后又出了《货币战争2》，现在您又在写《货币战争3》，请介绍一下每本书的背景？

　　宋鸿兵：写《货币战争1》时，直觉告诉我，全球金融危机的背后肯定有一只无形的手在操纵，我开始了自己的拼图游戏。我的核心理念是，用“谁掌握了货币发行权谁就掌握了世界”这个逻辑，将经济世界的发展拼凑起来。

　　《货币战争2》主要体现，历史发展的基本原动力就是人与人之间的利益博弈，而利益的最高体现形式就是金钱。特别是工业革命时代以来，西方资本主义发展的历史进程中更是如此。因此，扭住金钱这一线索，就抓住了西方近200年历史演进的主要矛盾。

　　这本书全面阐述欧美主要金融势力集团的形成、发展、排挤、冲突、联合与制衡，系统解析当今世界幕后主宰力量的运作和决策机制，第一次揭开统治世界的“国际银行家族俱乐部”的神秘面纱。

　　《货币战争3》则从国际化、金融、历史的视角来看待中国近现代史的重大事件，并对当今发生的和即将面临的金融问题提出建设性的思路和意见。比如汇率，贸易。

　　北方周末报记者 梅刚

[JIMMYKKL]

i was recommended this book sometime ago.

look like i missed out something good.

so the most civilised is the biggest hidden hand afterall in playing "weak meat strong eat" game all the while to secure their No. 1 position.

Bush admitted his mistake in the Iraq Invasion but will not apologise.

World really change liao. anything can happen. bank also can collapse.

[Dennis Ng]

i was recommended this book sometime ago.

look like i missed out something good.

so the most civilised is the biggest hidden hand afterall in playing "weak meat strong eat" game all the while to secure their No. 1 position.

Bush admitted his mistake in the Iraq Invasion but will not apologise.

World really change liao. anything can happen. bank also can collapse.

Hi JIMMYKKL,

yes, many forget that U.S. claimed Iraq and "dangerous and mass destructive weapons" and used it as an excuse to attack Iraq. In the end, it turns out that Iraq has no such weapons, just normal guns and powder.

yes, it's unbelieveable what a country can resort to doing, in keeping its power and supremacy.

Do you know that there are rumours that even the Sep 11 attack on the Twin Towers of World Trade Centre is a self-directed "movie" by U.S.?

Go watch the collapse of the twin towers again and again and you would realise it looks like a "detonation" from within the building after the plane crash, a typical way U.S. used to demolish high rise buildings.

The World Trade Centres collapsed straight down, minimising any possible damage to surrounding buildings, a feat possible by precise and accurate positioning of bombs, not quite possible caused by 2 planes crashing.

[JIMMYKKL]

yes,
i won't be surprise if it is a inside job.
there are just too many such "conspiracy theory" thing.
what a good chance to apply "borrow knife kill man" to blame it on the terrorist?

[Irene]

Guys, pls go iPhone application to download 货币战争（有声书), quite some chapters at the beginning are free! Happy listening!

[uris]

Any idea if there is an english version of this book? My mandarin is quite bad... I think I'm only at the primary school/secondary one level.

[JIMMYKKL]

"货币战争"作者谈人民币升值问题 Part3 ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEg-huwT ... r_embedded )

郎咸平说09-揭秘金融大鳄01 ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5q7q2Vv ... re=related )

郎咸平说20-人民币升值让你更富裕吗01 ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyWimnsReyI&NR=1 )

interesting and educational insights by a Chinese Professor on "International Financial Crocs" and how RMB appreciation affect China.

[Dennis Ng]

"货币战争"作者谈人民币升值问题 Part3 ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEg-huwT ... r_embedded )

郎咸平说09-揭秘金融大鳄01 ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5q7q2Vv ... re=related )

郎咸平说20-人民币升值让你更富裕吗01 ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyWimnsReyI&NR=1 )

interesting and educational insights by a Chinese Professor on "International Financial Crocs" and how RMB appreciation affect China.

awesome info and videos! Thanks Jimmykkl for sharing.

I watched videos of 郎咸平 for the last 1 hour, Great Stuff!

This is video of 郎咸平 vs Jim Rogers :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWts0cd7 ... re=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dDsXNBL ... re=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLGNWX06 ... re=related

[JIMMYKKL]

郎咸平的博客

http://langxianping.blog.cnstock.com

his speech at Ching Hua University ( 郎咸平清華演講 精彩 part1 ) also quite interesting
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aC6o1vdt ... re=related

[JIMMYKKL]

Reproduced from Song's blog - http://www.caogen.com/blog/Infor_detail ... leId=25833

日本核事故对全球负面影响将陆续显现

2011-03-20

据中国之声《新闻纵横》报道，受日本地震的影响，昨天（15日）亚太地区主要股市全面下挫。当天，日本东京股市日经225种股票平均价格指数较前一交易日大跌1015.34点，跌幅达10.55%。韩国首尔股市综合指数下跌47.31点，跌幅为2.40%。而今晨的欧美股市也表现不佳。纽约股市三大股指最终仍以1%以上的跌幅结束了全天交易。伦敦股市《金融时报》100种股票平均价格指数比前一交易日下跌79.96点，跌幅为1.38%。

　　为缓解震灾造成的金融市场资金不足，日本央行14号宣布，将通过公开市场操作向金融市场注入18万亿日元的紧急资金。这是自去年5月欧元区主权债务危机造成金融市场动荡以来，日本央行首次向短期金融市场提供紧急融资。日本央行还在一份声明中表示，将继续评估经济和金融市场状况，并在必要时候采取适当行动。

　　日本在这个时候推出的这些措施，究竟能够对稳定震后日本经济起到多大用？全球经济面临怎样的变动和考验？中国之声连线环球财经研究院院长宋鸿兵，关注详细情况。

　　主持人：综合从上周到今天日本股市及美股、欧洲股市的表现，日本地震以及随后的核辐射，对全球股市造成了怎样的影响？

　　宋鸿兵：回顾日本地震以来全球股市变化情况，11日刚发生地震的时候，大家普遍没有意识到后续影响会如此厉害。在地震前后，全球股市反应并不是特别明显。

　　但最近两天，特别是日本核电场发生爆炸，核辐射问题凸显出来之后，立刻使全球市场意识到日本地震不光是自然问题，还面临着很大的核辐射问题。核辐射问题可能从某种意义上来说对市场心理的影响可能远远超过地震本身。最近两天，日本股市和全球股市下跌幅度明显加大，昨天日本股市最大跌幅达到14%，虽然最后回到10%的跌幅，也是相当惊人的大幅下跌。美国股市最近跌下12000点。中国股市也出现了2%以上的大幅下挫。香港股市等做出反应。这是受核辐射的影响。

　　估计未来几天，日本核电站事故对全球的负面影响会陆续产生，还要看日本的死亡人数和核电厂核污染会不会进一步恶化。如果未来几天出现进一步恶化的趋势，估计全球股市还会经受比较大的冲击。

　　主持人：日本政府为了稳定震后日本经济，采取了一系列相应措施，那这些措施是否收到了效果？

　　宋鸿兵：日本地震之，日本央行采取了大规模释放流动性，注入流动性的措施，是为了应急。日本注资几十万亿日元，相当于大规模注入（流动性），是为了稳定金融形势，不至于出现雪崩。从目前的情况来看，短期之内可能不会出现太大的问题。但中长期后果难以预料，特别是最近日元和美元汇率，包括全球汇率市场和债券市场有可能会受到日本地震的比较重大的冲击。

　　日本是全世界第二大美国国债持有国，仅次于中国。由于这次地震，日本很可能会抛售一些债券，筹集现金以抗震救灾或者恢复经济发展。这会使美国国债承受很大的压力。美国经济复苏并不是很稳定，或者还有很大的潜在隐忧。如果日本政府变成了美国国债的抛售国，不管规模有多大，这种行为和抛售预期会加重美国国债的承受压力，美国国债市场出现比较大的问题，很可能会在债券市场推高美国国债的收益率，会使美国融资成本出现意想不到的上升，除非美联储进一步加大国债购买量，而这又会促使美元贬值。

　　主持人：除了对债券市场的影响外，对世界经济还有哪些方面的影响？

　　宋鸿兵：这一循环过程会反过来冲击汇率市场。由于日本抛售美国国债换取美元现金，到时候要在日本国内使用（美元），必须要去市场上买进日元，抛售美元，会对日元和美元汇率产生比较大的冲击。

　　除了对日元和美元的冲击之外，还会影响到其他国家与美元、日元的汇率市场的稳定性。日本灾后重建需多大规模资金，显然这不是很小的数量，会对全球债券市场产生很强的冲击，特别是对美国国债市场。

　　在这一冲击波来回激荡过程中，会使全世界金融体系承受比较大的压力。日本灾后保险业也会面临很大的赔偿。据不完全统计，日本保险业灾后将面临相当庞大的亏损，会使日本再保险业和保险体系经受非常严重的冲击。

　　在这三方面的影响之下，未来可能金融市场会出现不太稳定的趋势。

[sheiwah]

Guys, pls go iPhone application to download 货币战争（有声书), quite some chapters at the beginning are free! Happy listening!

[Albert]

This is the English translate

According to Voice of "news vertical and horizontal" report, by the impact of the earthquake in Japan yesterday (15 days) major Asia-Pacific Stocks fell. The same day, the Tokyo stock market Nikkei 225 stock index plunged 1,015.34 points over the previous session, falling 10.55%. Seoul stock market composite index fell 47.31 points, or 2.40%. And this morning the stock market also performed poorly in Europe and America. Stocks end with the three major indexes fall more than 1% of the end of the day trading. London's "Financial Times" 100 average stock price index over the previous session down 79.96 points, or 1.38%.

To mitigate the financial markets caused by the earthquake insufficient funds, the Bank of Japan announced that 14 will be through open market operations to inject 18 trillion yen of financial markets in emergency funding. This is the last in May euro zone sovereign debt crisis of the financial market turmoil since the Bank of Japan for the first time the financial markets to provide emergency short-term financing. A statement, the Bank of Japan also said it would continue to assess economic and financial market conditions and take appropriate action when necessary.

Japan introduced the measures at this time, how can stability in the Japanese economy after the earthquake, how to play with? What changes in the global economy and challenges facing? Voice of China International Finance Research Institute Song Hongbing connection, attention for details.

Moderator: General from the Japanese stock market last week and today, U.S. stocks, the performance of European markets, the Japanese earthquake and the subsequent radiation, what caused the global impact of the stock market?

Mr Song: Review of the earthquake in Japan since the changes in global stock markets, 11, after the earthquake, people are generally unaware of the follow-up would be so powerful. Before and after the earthquake, the global stock market reaction is not particularly obvious.

But the last two days, especially the Japanese nuclear power field explosion, nuclear radiation prominent immediately after the earthquake in the global market realize that not only is a natural problem in Japan, also face great issues of nuclear radiation. Nuclear radiation may be a sense of the impact of market psychology may be far more than the earthquake itself. Last two days, the Japanese stock market and significantly increased the rate of global stock market decline yesterday, the biggest decline in Japanese stock market reached 14%, although the final return to 10% decline, there is a surprisingly sharp drop. U.S. stocks fell 12,000 points recently. China's stock market also appeared in more than 2% plunge. Hong Kong stock market and so to respond. This is subject to nuclear radiation.

Estimate the next few days, the Japanese nuclear power plant accident on the negative impact of the global production will continue, depends on the number of deaths in Japan and the nuclear power plant pollution will not deteriorate further. If the next few days, the trend of further deterioration of the estimated global stock markets also experienced relatively large impact.

Moderator: The Japanese government after the earthquake in order to stabilize the Japanese economy has taken a series of measures, it received the results of these measures?

Mr Song: Japan earthquake, a massive release of Japan's central bank liquidity, injecting liquidity measure to the emergency. Japan injected tens of trillions of yen, the equivalent of a large-scale injection (liquidity) to stabilize the financial situation, and will not appear avalanche. From the current situation, the short term may not appear much of a problem. But difficult to predict long-term consequences, particularly the recent Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar exchange rate, including global currency markets and bond markets may be more significant in Japan the impact of the earthquake.

Japan is the world's second-largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, second only to China. Since the earthquake, Japan is likely to sell some bonds to raise cash to disaster relief or restore economic growth. This will make the U.S. Treasury under great pressure. U.S. economic recovery is not very stable, or there is great potential worry. If the Japanese government selling U.S. Treasury bonds into the country, no matter how large, such an act, and selling U.S. Treasury bonds are expected to increase the pressure on the U.S. Treasury market bigger issue, is likely to push the U.S. Treasury bond market rate of return, will the United States unexpected financing costs rise, unless the Federal Reserve to further increase the amount of bonds purchased, which will make the dollar.

Moderator: In addition to the bond market effects, what other aspects of the world economy's impact?

Mr Song: This cycle will turn, the impact of exchange rate market. Since Japan sell U.S. treasury bonds in exchange for U.S. dollars in cash, to the time to use in Japan (USD), you must go to the market to buy yen, sell the dollar, the yen and the dollar will have a relatively large impact.

In addition to the impact of the yen and the dollar, the will also affect other countries and the U.S. dollar, the yen's exchange market stability. Japan needs more large-scale reconstruction funds, obviously this is not a small number of global bond markets will have a strong impact, especially on the Treasury market.

Shock wave surging back and forth in this process, makes the whole world financial system to withstand relatively large pressure. Japan's post-disaster insurance industry will face significant damages. According to incomplete statistics, the Japanese insurance industry will face a very large disaster losses, will the Japanese system of reinsurance and insurance industry experienced a very serious impact.

In these three areas under the influence of financial markets, the future may appear less stable trend.

[JIMMYKKL]

This is the English translate

Mr Albert, Bravo......

This place is like "Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon" or Shaolin Temple where more and more able men and women finally coming out to demonstrate skills.

I think this is a good gesture to repay Dennis sifu efforts and he should be very glad and more inspired and motivated.

Like Dennis always said we are all teachers and students at the same time. There is no wrong or right but all individual's opinion in expressing their view here.

So all the Tigers and Dragons out there, please surface and made our sifu proud.

CHEERS.

[Albert]

Haha. As you have noticed, the gammar is not that correct as I use Google Translate to do it. It may not be technically correct, but at least the juice of it can be understood by most.

[ngtfook]

I just read a book "The Great Super Cycle - Profit from the coming inflation tidal wave and dollar devaluaion" by David Skarica (2011, John Wiley & Son Inc).

His predictions:

1. Bond look like a bubble. The parabolic action in the bond market is indicative of moves that happen near the end of a major move upward.

2. The bursting of the Super Bubble mean fund will not flow as fast into United states. The US abused its position as the world's reverse currency with the super bubble system. However, funds will not flow at fast in the coming years and instead will flow into other parts of the world. As the US becomes increasingly indebted, foreigners will shy away from US debt. The US will have to print money to buy this debt. This will devalue the dollar and cause inflation

3. The US will have to print money because of the makeup of the debt. The markup of the debt is very negative for th US. Most of the debt is short term in nature (<5 ears). This means it will have to print money like crazy over a short period of time to pay it off.

4. Interest rate will spike and the US bond bubble will burst. As inflation soars and the dollar declines, interest rate on the long end of the curve will have to rise to reflect these trends. The 27-year bond bull market probably ended in 2008 and has not yet entered a major bear market. This means much higher interest going forward. The law of supply and demand states that as supply outstrips demand, investors will require higher interest rate to sustain any desire in invesing in US bond.