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May 31, 2011
Resale property prices rise again
NUS index registers 1% gain in April, biggest since Jan's cooling measures
By Esther Teo, Property Reporter

RESALE property prices mirrored the buoyant mood in the new homes market and inched up higher last month, according to an index that tracks prices.

Home prices were up 1 per cent last month - the biggest monthly rise since January's cooling measures - and the increase follows a 0.2 per cent rise in March.

Prices for the central region rose 0.8 per cent, while those in non-central areas added 1.1 per cent.

The increases were recorded by the Singapore Residential Price Index, which the National University of Singapore compiles by monitoring the transactions of non-landed completed projects.

Experts say the index's 1 per cent increase reflects the expansive market mood, with buyers out in such force last month that developers shifted 1,788 new homes - a five-month high.

Cushman & Wakefield's senior manager of Asia-Pacific research, Mr Ong Kah Seng, said the good mood in the new sales market has spilled over to resales, now that buyers on all fronts have had time to digest the cooling measures.

Mr Ong said the 1 per cent price increase follows consecutive months of subdued price gains and does not indicate that the measures have not worked.

Ms Chia Siew Chuin, director of research and advisory at Colliers International, added that buyers could have entered the resale market for fear of missing the boat, with prices generally rising further.

This is especially so for affordably priced units in completed developments with good attributes, she noted.

Experts forecast that market sentiment will be mixed in coming months, although prices are expected to continue inching upwards.

Colliers' Ms Chia said some potential buyers might wait for clearer directions from the Government on housing policy.

'On the other hand, another group may choose to enter the market sooner in view of policy risks and the likely impact on the market,' she added.

'Nonetheless, prices are still expected to continue to strengthen gradually in the coming months.'

Cushman's Mr Ong agreed, saying that non-landed resale prices are expected to hold steady, or rise less than 1 per cent a month.

'(This) reflects the effect of economic strength and positive, genuine owner-occupier home buyer interest,' he noted.

SLP International research head Nicholas Mak said price gains in non-central areas are likely to outpace those in central areas this year, due to the strong demand for affordable homes from locals and permanent residents.

While foreign interest in centrally located homes is returning, it is still not as strong as that in 2007, he noted.

esthert@sph.com.sg

More people now holding off purchasing decisions in anticipation of falling property price...

S’pore private homes market quieter By i_property | Property Blog – Wed, Jun 1, 2011 By Sheena Chua

It seems that those who are looking for private homes of their own are in no hurry to buy.

Speculation that prices would fall first picked up after the General Elections less than a month ago and was further encouraged by last Friday's announcement from the new Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan that 3,000 more build-to-order (BTO) flats will be erected this year.

Agents speaking to The Straits Times reported that some 60 percent of their clients are now holding off purchasing decisions in anticipation of falling prices, opting instead to rent homes until they find the best deal.

With fewer people responding to property viewings, it looks like a calm has wafted over the private resale property market. On the other side, homeowners looking to sell their private apartments are also considering waiting out this period, for fear of competition from the new BTO flats, and in search of buyers willing to fork out more.

However, experts find it unlikely that the introduction of large numbers of BTO flats will affect the private market gravely, citing good turnouts at show flats and property launches as proof.For instance, out of the 306 units that Foresque Residences, situated at Petir Road, have released for sale, over 120 have already been sold, at prices ranging $850-1,300 per sq ft (psf). Similarly, Pasir Ris executive condominium Belysa has had 158 — almost half — of its 315 units sold, at prices averaging $670 psf. Meanwhile, Bukit Timah development 10 Shelford, which starts at around $830,000 for a 388 sq ft unit, has only 20 of 69 units yet to be sold.

Guys, for your info... This is in line with Dennis's comment.


Stay out of property market for now’Roman Abramovich, a Russian billionaire and the 53rd richest person according to 2011 Forbes list, said: "investors have very short memories". In today's bullish climate it is hard to imagine that just about two years ago, there were genuine fears of a global financial meltdown. These days we are no longer concerned about our assets becoming worthless; instead we are more concerned about property prices escalating beyond what we can afford.

In view of this, some people may inevitably believe that this current "bull" run will last forever and make risky investments in fear of losing out. They attempt to rationalise that it is different this time round and that the spectacular market performance is due to the emergence of Asia as a new financial powerhouse.

John Templeton, a very prominent stock investor once commented," the four most dangerous words in investing are 'This time it's different'." According to the historical URA Private Property Price Index (PPPI), we can tell that the property market is cyclical and no trend lasts forever. In a blog post I wrote in July 2009, I mentioned then that the property market will not remain depressed indefinitely. In a similar vein, I am confident that the current price appreciation will not go unabated and it will correct in the near future.

The question is how can we tell when the Singapore property market is going to dip?

In my second book entitled Buy RIGHT Property — Taking the R.I.G.H.T. Approach to Property Investing in Singapore, I shared that my company has developed a proprietary index called the Ascendant Assets Index (AAI).

The basic premises of the AAI are (1) there is a lead-lag relationship between the stock and property market and (2) we are able to tell how the property market is performing by analysing the correlation between the stock and property market. For example, in bullish (or bearish) market conditions, we would expect the correlation between the stock and property market to be high as prices are increasing (or decreasing) in tandem. On the other hand, we would expect the correlation between the stock and property markets to be low during turning points as stock prices, being more liquid, would diverge from the less responsive property prices.

So how is the market like now? Figure 1 shows the AAI for the recent quarter 2011Q1. From the figure, we can tell that the Singapore property market (shown in green colour) is presently in the strong growth stage with both STI and URA PPPI increasing in tandem. However, it is noteworthy that the AAI has dropped from over 90% to under 80%. Over the next few quarters, we expect the AAI to drop further. When the AAI falls below the 50% mark (represented by the dotted line), it signals a turning point as the stock market will be almost completely out of sync with the property market. It signals an overall change in underlying market sentiments and the property market would be expected to decline shortly after.

Conclusion

It is important to note that the AAI is only one tool to gauge how the property market is performing. There are other aspects to consider before making a buy or sell decision. Nonetheless, I have been asked by several prospective clients if it is a good time to buy properties. My personal view is that unless it is an essential purchase (e.g. buying a home to stay), I would stay out of the market right now. In fact, I had recently sold two properties to accumulate cash to prepare for the next market downturn.

As a parting shot, let me leave you with a quote by Warren Buffett that I often make reference to, "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others are fearful". With the URA PPPI reaching a new peak in the last quarter, I can't help but to feel a slight sense of fear…
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/blogs/property ... 08511.html

The following report from BT highlights the rise of new condos launch prices:

By KALPANA RASHIWALA

(SINGAPORE) Despite the record supply of state land, launch prices of new 99-year condos continue to climb, spurred by strong demand.

A study by DTZ shows that median prices of new 99-year leasehold condos launched in 2010 and 2011 on sites sold at Government Land Sale (GLS) tenders have generally been 8-35 per cent higher than those of comparable nearby condos released earlier.

Wing Tai recently launched Foresque Residences at Petir Road at an average price said to be about $1,100 per square foot (psf) - or 32 per cent higher than the median price for units at Tree House next door in the preceding three-month period. In February, Chip Eng Seng released My Manhattan in Simei for $1,219 psf median price - or 42 per cent higher than the $856 psf per plot ratio (ppr) median price of the Double Bay Residences nearby.

Last November, Keppel Land released The Lakefront Residences in Jurong at a median price of $1,075 psf, about 35 per cent higher than the median price for the neighbouring Caspian project over the previous three months.

DTZ's SE Asia research head Chua Chor Hoon noted that 'developments with fewer units and/or smaller units tend to have higher per square foot prices'. For instance, at Petir Road, Foresque Residences has one- to four-bedroom units whereas the next-door Tree House has two bedrooms and upwards. In Simei, My Manhattan has 301 units, half the 646 units at Double Bay Residences.

DTZ's COO and head of consulting and research for SE Asia Ong Choon Fah notes that, generally, developers have been incorporating more one-bedders and even slightly smaller one- and two-bedders in some instances compared to earlier projects. By keeping the lump-sum prices affordable, they have been able to achieve higher psf prices.

Also, units in new property launches are sold on the progressive payment scheme, which means buyers do not draw down the entire housing loan immediately. This leaves them more willing to pay a higher psf price for a new launch than for an older project nearby for which they would have to pay up the full price in a short time. 'Concerted efforts by developers to market new launches also create an emotive appeal to buyers which would be missing when one shops for an older property in the secondary market,' Mrs Ong added.

Analysts note that since last year, the government has been releasing more 99-year condo sites near projects that have sold like hot cakes in a bid to cool the market. However, strong demand for new projects from owner occupiers as well as investors keen on a hedge against inflation has been depleting land banks of developers, leading them to bid competitively for land at state tenders. This has translated to higher prices when they launch new projects.

As Credo Real Estate executive director Ong Teck Hui says: 'Many of us who have been burnt in the financial markets feel property is a more reliable, long-term investment. Cash-flush investors also see property as a desirable investment.

'For a family that has been aspiring for years to upgrade to private property, the conditions seem favourable: the job market and the economy are good, interest rates are low.

'It's difficult for policymakers to discourage people from buying property under these circumstances.'

Mr Ong also suggests: 'Releasing more land now to try and slow down end-unit take-up doesn't work, because when people are in a buying mood, numbers on future supply aren't going to deter them.'

For now, developers continue to bid for land, and prices have gone up, even for average sites. A 99-year condo site at Buangkok Drive fetched a top bid of $391 psf ppr in June, or 22 per cent higher than the $320 psf ppr that an Upper Serangoon View plot sold for last November.

This week, a Woodlands Avenue 2 plot sold for $367 psf ppr, 10 per cent more than what a neighbouring site fetched last November.

DTZ's Ms Chua expects developers to continue to bid for 99-year sites as many have a small land bank and need to replenish fast, especially since the time to launch a project is now shorter.

'With many developers in the market, including some new foreign players, they need to bid competitively to win tenders, especially for well-located sites. And due to high land prices, developers will continue to build smaller units as there is more demand for units below $1.5 million.'

Analysts warn about a potential glut when all the units being sold at property launches are completed - if there are no occupiers for a large number of these units, and the completions coincide with an economic downturn. A slowdown in the rate of immigration will also affect demand. 'There are so many variables that affect the equation. At the end of the day, people have to be mindful and buy within their means,' advises Mrs Ong.

SINGAPORE: Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan has sounded an alert on a possible sharp fall in property prices.

Writing on his blog, Mr Khaw said things can suddenly go very wrong.

He pointed out a strong supply of housing units is coming up.

About 35,000 private homes have already been sold.

Another 45,000 units are also waiting to be built and sold.

Mr Khaw warned a weak global economy could turn away foreign buyers who make up about 16 per cent of all buyers of private properties.

Rental demand can also fall quickly since many Singaporeans also buy properties to lease to foreigners.

He said the impact of external shocks can be serious if the drop in demand happens when there’s a substantial increase in supply.

He also said cost of borrowing and repayment must go up and households must factor this in.

Mr Khaw advised investors to bear these in mind before signing up for new houses.

—CNA/wk

Dennis had warned us 6 months ago that it is not the season to invest in property.
I guess there is enough warnings signal to stay out of property investment for the time being.

Hi Dennis

If prices of property is most likely on the down trend, should i sell my property now to cash in and have the opportunity funds stand by. At the same time rent a place to stay and go in to buy again when the prices is down.

Below is my scenario :

1) profit on sale of property - ard $240k

2) Rental for say 2 yrs - $2,500x2yrs - $60k

3) Assume property prices will go down ard 15% - lost $137k

4) Net gain : $450k

(Profit) on sale of current property less (rental) add (avoid lost in property prices) add (possible savings of buying another property at low price)

Need your views

Thanks v much.

Trade2win wrote:SINGAPORE: Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan has sounded an alert on a possible sharp fall in property prices.

Writing on his blog, Mr Khaw said things can suddenly go very wrong.

He pointed out a strong supply of housing units is coming up.

About 35,000 private homes have already been sold.

Another 45,000 units are also waiting to be built and sold.

Mr Khaw warned a weak global economy could turn away foreign buyers who make up about 16 per cent of all buyers of private properties.

Rental demand can also fall quickly since many Singaporeans also buy properties to lease to foreigners.

He said the impact of external shocks can be serious if the drop in demand happens when there’s a substantial increase in supply.

He also said cost of borrowing and repayment must go up and households must factor this in.

Mr Khaw advised investors to bear these in mind before signing up for new houses.

—CNA/wk

Hi Patng8

Actually, my personal views are that nothing is certain and we have to make sure we are all right if we are wrong. Something that Dennis always advocates.

The scenario you mention can really happen but there is other cost in moving that has to be taken into account.

I have a friend who sold his HDB 2 years back at the crisis thinking that the property price will crash, so that he can buy a house.

He rented another 1-2 flat for 2 years before he cannot stand it, and finally bought a condo with financial help. But that time the market has risen. I think its not easy to not have a stable place as issues can arise sometimes. He has 3 kids.

ch.

Hi Cellabear

Thanks for the reminder that there is other cost involved. But looking at the situation now, chances that property prices will go up further is slim. And the profit that can make from the scenario i painted may be more than sufficient to make up for the inconvenience. What do you think?

Also, Dennis, what is your view in this.

Thanks.


What

cellobear wrote:Hi Patng8

Actually, my personal views are that nothing is certain and we have to make sure we are all right if we are wrong. Something that Dennis always advocates.

The scenario you mention can really happen but there is other cost in moving that has to be taken into account.

I have a friend who sold his HDB 2 years back at the crisis thinking that the property price will crash, so that he can buy a house.

He rented another 1-2 flat for 2 years before he cannot stand it, and finally bought a condo with financial help. But that time the market has risen. I think its not easy to not have a stable place as issues can arise sometimes. He has 3 kids.

ch.

Personally, if your property is a condo, I think you should sell because of the proven oversupply unless:

a) it is near an MRT station (prices will not likely go down too much even if downturn),

b) it is in a popular area (especially good schools - parents will ALWAYS pay for access to good schools for their kids. Even if it means sacrifices in other areas. I should know. I did.

c) it is a HDB flat that has easy access to amenities - government will prop up prices. There are elections every 5 years. The majority of the support is always from the HDB folks. The HDB support will always be rewarded.

patng8 wrote:Hi Dennis

If prices of property is most likely on the down trend, should i sell my property now to cash in and have the opportunity funds stand by. At the same time rent a place to stay and go in to buy again when the prices is down.

Below is my scenario :

1) profit on sale of property - ard $240k

2) Rental for say 2 yrs - $2,500x2yrs - $60k

3) Assume property prices will go down ard 15% - lost $137k

4) Net gain : $450k

(Profit) on sale of current property less (rental) add (avoid lost in property prices) add (possible savings of buying another property at low price)

Need your views

Thanks v much.

Trade2win wrote:SINGAPORE: Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan has sounded an alert on a possible sharp fall in property prices.

Writing on his blog, Mr Khaw said things can suddenly go very wrong.

He pointed out a strong supply of housing units is coming up.

About 35,000 private homes have already been sold.

Another 45,000 units are also waiting to be built and sold.

Mr Khaw warned a weak global economy could turn away foreign buyers who make up about 16 per cent of all buyers of private properties.

Rental demand can also fall quickly since many Singaporeans also buy properties to lease to foreigners.

He said the impact of external shocks can be serious if the drop in demand happens when there’s a substantial increase in supply.

He also said cost of borrowing and repayment must go up and households must factor this in.

Mr Khaw advised investors to bear these in mind before signing up for new houses.

—CNA/wk

Hi moneyisfreedom

Thanks for the advise.

Hi Dennis, would very much like to know your view. Thanks.

Patricia

moneyisfreedom wrote:Personally, if your property is a condo, I think you should sell because of the proven oversupply unless:

a) it is near an MRT station (prices will not likely go down too much even if downturn),

b) it is in a popular area (especially good schools - parents will ALWAYS pay for access to good schools for their kids. Even if it means sacrifices in other areas. I should know. I did.

c) it is a HDB flat that has easy access to amenities - government will prop up prices. There are elections every 5 years. The majority of the support is always from the HDB folks. The HDB support will always be rewarded.

Hi patng8,

I've already shared my views about the Singapore Property Market, don't like to repeat myself. Read the forum.

http://www.masteryourfinance.com/forum/ ... php?t=1895

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

patng8 wrote:Hi moneyisfreedom

Thanks for the advise.

Hi Dennis, would very much like to know your view. Thanks.

Patricia

moneyisfreedom wrote:Personally, if your property is a condo, I think you should sell because of the proven oversupply unless:

a) it is near an MRT station (prices will not likely go down too much even if downturn),

b) it is in a popular area (especially good schools - parents will ALWAYS pay for access to good schools for their kids. Even if it means sacrifices in other areas. I should know. I did.

c) it is a HDB flat that has easy access to amenities - government will prop up prices. There are elections every 5 years. The majority of the support is always from the HDB folks. The HDB support will always be rewarded.

Hi Dennis

Sorry if i hv offended u in one way or another.

I just need your professional view.

I remember u telling me n sharing in the property seminar that we shd take up an equity loan on our existing property to stand by opportunity funds.

U also shared in the forum that the singapore property market is likely reaching its peak and chances are prices will be going down say abt 10 - 30%.

That is why i m asking u again for your professional views that should i sell my current property n take profit under the scenario i have painted. Concurrently, i could hv the opportunity funds too just like take up an equity loan u suggested.

Really hope to hear from u and really hope u dont mind to share with me again as i m a bit slow n may seem a bit stupid.

Patng8

Dennis Ng wrote:Hi patng8,

I've already shared my views about the Singapore Property Market, don't like to repeat myself. Read the forum.

http://www.masteryourfinance.com/forum/ ... php?t=1895

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

patng8 wrote:Hi moneyisfreedom

Thanks for the advise.

Hi Dennis, would very much like to know your view. Thanks.

Patricia

moneyisfreedom wrote:Personally, if your property is a condo, I think you should sell because of the proven oversupply unless:

a) it is near an MRT station (prices will not likely go down too much even if downturn),

b) it is in a popular area (especially good schools - parents will ALWAYS pay for access to good schools for their kids. Even if it means sacrifices in other areas. I should know. I did.

c) it is a HDB flat that has easy access to amenities - government will prop up prices. There are elections every 5 years. The majority of the support is always from the HDB folks. The HDB support will always be rewarded.

patng8 wrote:Hi Dennis

I remember u telling me n sharing in the property seminar that we shd take up an equity loan on our existing property to stand by opportunity funds.

U also shared in the forum that the singapore property market is likely reaching its peak and chances are prices will be going down say abt 10 - 30%.

yes lor, these are my views as you have rightly mentioned.

So what you want to do is really up to you. With the above views, different people might decide to do different things.

So please do NOT expect me to make YOUR decisions for You, so that you can forsake the responsibility of making your own decisions. Becos NO ONE can make Your decisions for you. This is a FACT, not opinion.

12 Jun 2011 - another signal that Private condo prices probably near the peak...please note that majority of the demand for Mass Market condos come from HDB flat upgraders...

So with the widening gap between resale HDB flats' prices and mass market condos' prices. When this happens, it means fewer and fewer people would upgrade their homes...demand for mass market condos would then likely to drop (most probably next year in year 2012). Please also take note that the raising of income ceiling for buying of HDB flats from S$8,000 to S$10,000 would also mean some people who HAD to (no choice) to buy condos after the revision of income ceiling, would have the choice to choose to buy HDB flats instead - resulting in another drop in demand for mass market condos.

Some things are clear for me to see, but many still do NOT see what I see.

It is NOT New to me. In year 2007, I remember that I warned about the possible Crash in stock markets in year 2008 in internet forums, including Wallstraits.com and channelnewsasia.com , I was ATTACKED, yes by forumers who held a different view, yes, they called me many names, doomsayer; "stopped clock" (a stopped clock is right twice a day); a broken record (since I repeated the warnings over several months); I tried to explain to others why I held the view that stock markets were likely to Crash, but after several months, it was clear to me that those people did NOT want or bother to read or listen to my explanation...and I decided to leave Public internet forums forever, as I realised it is a futile attempt to try to educate and inform when people are NOT open to listening or open to different views.

In year 2008, the Global Financial Crisis arrived as I had warned. NOBODY in those forum mentioned that I (Dennis Ng) did gave out warnings back in year 2007, (guess it is something they hope to forget, as those who didn't listen, had lost a lot of money (they were stuck in the stock market, holding stocks bought at high prices)...by end of year 2008, I reached my first million dollars, and in May 2009, I decided to revive www.MasterYourFinance.com and the discussion forum, as I decided that I should still continue my efforts to try to educate the Public, but probably only to teach those who are OPEN enough to listen to me.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

Jun 11, 2011
Private-HDB home price gap hits record
More cooling measures may be needed to curb unabating demand, say some analysts
By Esther Teo, Property Reporter

THE price gap between mass market private homes and HDB flats has widened to a new record - making it harder than ever for aspiring HDB upgraders to buy a private home.

This is according to a new report by Goldman Sachs, which said that the price difference between 99-year leasehold homes in the suburban areas and five-room HDB flats grew to about $490 per sq ft (psf) in the first quarter of the year.

Translated into overall prices, this means a 1,200 sq ft five-room flat would cost almost $600,000 less than a mass market leasehold flat.

The last time the price gap hit near this level was during the spectacular property boom in late 2007, according to the report released on Thursday.

After that, the gap narrowed to about $300 psf in early 2009, before rising steadily again. In the 10 years before 2007, the price difference largely hovered between $100 and $300 psf.

The growing price chasm between HDB flats and private homes is turning into an 'insurmountable hurdle to upgrading aspirations', said the report's authors, Goldman analysts Paul Lian and June Zhu.

It also suggests the Government has 'little choice but to ensure more affordable housing for all through the HDB and also moderate prices of private mass-end homes'.

Mr Lian and Ms Zhu suggested that new cooling measures could include lower loans for home buyers with existing mortgages. Such buyers can now borrow 60 per cent of a home's price, but this might be cut to 50 per cent.

Foreigners, who are now purchasing across all housing segments, may also face restrictions on the number of mortgages they can take, they added.

Other analysts agreed that more cooling measures are possible, although they expect these only after the property price index for the second quarter is released next month.

The Government also needs time to assess the impact of its most recent release of new land sites on Thursday, said Mr Tan Kok Keong, property firm OrangeTee's head of research and consultancy. He believes any possible new measures are at least three months away, as the Government observes the market's response.

Already, the Government has hinted that the monthly income ceiling to buy new HDB flats may be lifted from the longstanding $8,000 to $10,000, making these cheaper properties accessible to more buyers.

But OCBC Investment Research property analyst Eli Lee said this move is likely to have a limited and delayed effect on the private property market.

'We believe the Government would likely have to implement more cooling measures (in the private market), especially if there is continued strength in mass segment prices,' he said.

Some, however, say more measures are unlikely.

Property consultancy Cushman & Wakefield Singapore vice-chairman Donald Han said early signs suggest developers' demand for land is moderating, with fewer bids in recent tenders. He said a 1 per cent to 2 per cent rise in quarterly prices is acceptable, given the healthy economy.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority is monitoring the situation, its group director of land sales and administration Marc Boey said on Thursday.

Commenting on the likelihood of further curbs to demand, Mr Boey said that while there was a slight slowdown in demand for new homes after the January measures, demand has picked up again.

'But monthly developers sales figures do have a bit of volatility due to seasonality... and depending on what developers launch, so we have to observe the trend a little closer. But in terms of price, it has continued to moderate in terms of pace of growth.'

April's private home sales rose 29 per cent from March to a five-month high of 1,788 units. First quarter prices are up 2.2 per cent, the sixth straight quarter in which the rate of increase has eased.

National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan has also fanned fears of more cooling measures by saying on his blog that 'sharp property price increases cannot go on forever'.

esthert@sph.com.sg