Blog that i followed on US Economies

[AndrewNg]

Hi everyone,

Below are blogs that i followed from time to time to get a different perspective of the US economy from the wall streets viewpoint.

http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/
http://nourielroubiniblog.blogspot.com/
http://peterschiffblog.blogspot.com/

All of them sing the same tune of having no confidence in the US dollar and economy, provide suggesting to invest in commodities, silver or gold, anticipate a QE3 and raise the ugliness of the Treasury and bond market.

Of course this is just one side of the coin and is highly biased but somehow it make sense and i tends to agree with what they and what Dennis say. Would like to hear different view point from graduates here.

I decided to hold my stocks and watch out for signal of QE3. If it happen and there is last rally, will sell during last rally. If it is a crash, will absorb loses and wait for next opportunity.

Meanwhile, I am thinking of shorting the market through CFD during market crash and using stop limit loss to manage risk. Anyone considering this option ?

Also to mitigate risk from stock market in the volatile time and inflation, is investing into commodity fund a viable option on top of just investing in silver and gold ? If yes, any good fund to choose in Singapore ?

regards
Andrew

[Dennis Ng]

Hi AndrewNg,

thanks for sharing.

These are blogs I visit every week too.

Personally, I think just merely having position into Silver/Gold is sufficient for the purpose of hedging against risk of inflation and currency devaluation. So personally, I will NOT buy any commodity fund.

I just found another way to buy Silver and other commodities, through CMC Markets, I was told that if I buy using Zero Leverage, there are NO additional financing and holdings costs. I just pay spot Silver price + 0.1% Commission, no minimum commission charges. Advantage is you can set specific dollar amounts to buy, no need to buy in ounces or other round numbers.

And if one buy stocks through CMC, one also get the dividends, only thing one loses out is the Right to vote at AGM.

Any seminar graduate if interested to find out more about CMC Markets account or want to consider opening account with them, can just email me your name and mobile number to me at dennis@MasterYourFinance.com and I will ask CMC Markets staff to contact you directly, to explain more to you, on a no-obligation basis.

Advantage is for my seminar graduates, only need min deposit of S$1,000 to open the account instead of min S$2,000 by members of the public.

Min deposit is to make sure that if you "Run away" after losing money, min CMC can get back S$1,000.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

Hi everyone,

Below are blogs that i followed from time to time to get a different perspective of the US economy from the wall streets viewpoint.

http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/
http://nourielroubiniblog.blogspot.com/
http://peterschiffblog.blogspot.com/

All of them sing the same tune of having no confidence in the US dollar and economy, provide suggesting to invest in commodities, silver or gold, anticipate a QE3 and raise the ugliness of the Treasury and bond market.

Of course this is just one side of the coin and is highly biased but somehow it make sense and i tends to agree with what they and what Dennis say. Would like to hear different view point from graduates here.

I decided to hold my stocks and watch out for signal of QE3. If it happen and there is last rally, will sell during last rally. If it is a crash, will absorb loses and wait for next opportunity.

Meanwhile, I am thinking of shorting the market through CFD during market crash and using stop limit loss to manage risk. Anyone considering this option ?

Also to mitigate risk from stock market in the volatile time and inflation, is investing into commodity fund a viable option on top of just investing in silver and gold ? If yes, any good fund to choose in Singapore ?

regards
Andrew

[woonty]

Hi everyone,

Below are blogs that i followed from time to time to get a different perspective of the US economy from the wall streets viewpoint.

http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/
http://nourielroubiniblog.blogspot.com/
http://peterschiffblog.blogspot.com/

All of them sing the same tune of having no confidence in the US dollar and economy, provide suggesting to invest in commodities, silver or gold, anticipate a QE3 and raise the ugliness of the Treasury and bond market.

Of course this is just one side of the coin and is highly biased but somehow it make sense and i tends to agree with what they and what Dennis say. Would like to hear different view point from graduates here.

I decided to hold my stocks and watch out for signal of QE3. If it happen and there is last rally, will sell during last rally. If it is a crash, will absorb loses and wait for next opportunity.

Meanwhile, I am thinking of shorting the market through CFD during market crash and using stop limit loss to manage risk. Anyone considering this option ?

Also to mitigate risk from stock market in the volatile time and inflation, is investing into commodity fund a viable option on top of just investing in silver and gold ? If yes, any good fund to choose in Singapore ?

regards
Andrew

Hi Andrew

Except Nouriel Roubini, I read these almost everyday including this forum (but sometimes too many repetition of the same article)

Go through all their posting & I must say they are almost spot-on (+/- 1 month) on their comments although one of them always "humbly/jokingly/sarcastically" claim he is the worst market timer & "sometimes" he do get it right

Sold all my Stocks & Unit Trusts before QE2 ends, raise my Gold & Silver close to 25% on hindsight should have raised to 50% (easier to say now) but have no inclination to short (not use to short, not for everyone)

Not sure if it is too late to short & if everyone thinks likewise then the QE3 rally may not come because everyone is expecting the rally will not last

More concern what will happen to Gold & Silver since everyone is issuing "disclaimers" that it is too high & short term healthy correction is coming.

I think the Treasuries will deflate first before the Gold bubble burst hopefully not within these 2 years.

I always believe to be fully responsible for the investment decisions that I have made or choose to believe

[jfoo2]

hi Woonty,

Wow no wonder u are a millionaire. You are spot on.

[dragon]

Sold all my Stocks & Unit Trusts before QE2 ends, raise my Gold & Silver close to 25% on hindsight should have raised to 50% (easier to say now) but have no inclination to short (not use to short, not for everyone)

Hi Woonty,

I would very much like to learn from you pls: what were the reasons that made you decide to sell all your stocks & unit trusts before QE2 ends, and raise your gold and silver to close to 25%?

[woonty]

Sold all my Stocks & Unit Trusts before QE2 ends, raise my Gold & Silver close to 25% on hindsight should have raised to 50% (easier to say now) but have no inclination to short (not use to short, not for everyone)

Hi Woonty,

I would very much like to learn from you pls: what were the reasons that made you decide to sell all your stocks & unit trusts before QE2 ends, and raise your gold and silver to close to 25%?

Like Dennis always said "Investing is an Art NOT Science" so there is no hard & fast rule (formula) to follow.

I usually "try" to anticipate what the majority of us (including me) is thinking, will react based on different outcome & position my portfolio ahead of them

Effect of withdrawal of QE2 on the market/economy
From then till hint of "QE3" market downward-biased
Worldwide Inflation effect on Gold & Silver
What if "QE3" more inflation & effect on Gold & Silver?

Anyway just a thinking process which was frequently discussed in the forum


woonty

[walkinepark]

Sold all my Stocks & Unit Trusts before QE2 ends, raise my Gold & Silver close to 25% on hindsight should have raised to 50% (easier to say now) but have no inclination to short (not use to short, not for everyone)

Hi Woonty,

I would very much like to learn from you pls: what were the reasons that made you decide to sell all your stocks & unit trusts before QE2 ends, and raise your gold and silver to close to 25%?

Like Dennis always said "Investing is an Art NOT Science" so there is no hard & fast rule (formula) to follow.

I usually "try" to anticipate what the majority of us (including me) is thinking, will react based on different outcome & position my portfolio ahead of them

Effect of withdrawal of QE2 on the market/economy
From then till hint of "QE3" market downward-biased
Worldwide Inflation effect on Gold & Silver
What if "QE3" more inflation & effect on Gold & Silver?

Anyway just a thinking process which was frequently discussed in the forum


woonty

Hi woonty,

what you've just said reminds me of this quote from John Maynard Keynes :
“Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others.”

An analysis on the macro level and what the crowd is thinking... and it works. really got to learn from you man..

cheers!

[jfoo2]

HI Woonty,

Thanks for sharing. You are a shrewd investor.

Hope to learn more from you as well.

Thanks.

[dragon]

Like Dennis always said "Investing is an Art NOT Science" so there is no hard & fast rule (formula) to follow.

I usually "try" to anticipate what the majority of us (including me) is thinking, will react based on different outcome & position my portfolio ahead of them

Effect of withdrawal of QE2 on the market/economy
From then till hint of "QE3" market downward-biased
Worldwide Inflation effect on Gold & Silver
What if "QE3" more inflation & effect on Gold & Silver?

Anyway just a thinking process which was frequently discussed in the forum


woonty

Hi Woonty,

Thanks for your selfless sharing!

[yhendra]

Hi woonty,

what you've just said reminds me of this quote from John Maynard Keynes :
“Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others.”

An analysis on the macro level and what the crowd is thinking... and it works. really got to learn from you man..

cheers!

More than agree on this!

Actually, when you are driving... you need to anticipate what other drivers anticipate!
When playing chess, or in martial arts, or in sport in general, you are anticipating what your opponent anticipates your next move...

Only when we gamble that we CANNOT anticipate what others anticipate, it is a PURE game of chance, even the dealer do not know what will come next!!!

Just to share a thought, as part of my learning process...

[walkinepark]

Only when we gamble that we CANNOT anticipate what others anticipate, it is a PURE game of chance, even the dealer do not know what will come next!!!

Sounds like the situation now, i.e. what's going to come out the from Jackson Hole meeting? How is market going to react after the announcement?
It's a gamble to be in stocks right now..

Cheers

[AndrewNg]

Hi Everyone,

Let me try to anticipate what others are anticipating after reading blogs and comments from American and China heavy weight economist..

Message i get from the economist:

All seems to agree towards declining dollar and euro.

China trying to slow down economy by slowly appreciating the yuan

Gold and silver rising mostly out of decline in currency confidence and fear rather than greed, maybe still rising within the next 2 to 3 years.

Market already anticipating Fed will try all means to support asset price and reduce unemployment rate, maybe they dun call it QE3..perhaps some other fanciful name. I read somewhere that they are considering tax cut on payroll and using VAT system similar to UK.

My thinking as follows:
Market had learnt a lesson that QE1 and QE2 doesn't work so even with QE3, confidence might not be fully restored and the rally will not be a fantastic one.

Action i take:
Still keep on to my stocks and prepared to take up to 30% loss and sell if all indices 50MA cross 200MA for 5 to 10 trading days as taught.
At the same time, downside of silver is US32, upside could go up to US70, will up my silver holding.

Did i miss out anything ?

regards
Andrew

Only when we gamble that we CANNOT anticipate what others anticipate, it is a PURE game of chance, even the dealer do not know what will come next!!!

Sounds like the situation now, i.e. what's going to come out the from Jackson Hole meeting? How is market going to react after the announcement?
It's a gamble to be in stocks right now..

Cheers

[Dennis Ng]

Hi Everyone,

Let me try to anticipate what others are anticipating after reading blogs and comments from American and China heavy weight economist..

Message i get from the economist:

All seems to agree towards declining dollar and euro.

China trying to slow down economy by slowly appreciating the yuan

Gold and silver rising mostly out of decline in currency confidence and fear rather than greed, maybe still rising within the next 2 to 3 years.

Market already anticipating Fed will try all means to support asset price and reduce unemployment rate, maybe they dun call it QE3..perhaps some other fanciful name. I read somewhere that they are considering tax cut on payroll and using VAT system similar to UK.

My thinking as follows:
Market had learnt a lesson that QE1 and QE2 doesn't work so even with QE3, confidence might not be fully restored and the rally will not be a fantastic one.

Action i take:
Still keep on to my stocks and prepared to take up to 30% loss and sell if all indices 50MA cross 200MA for 5 to 10 trading days as taught.
At the same time, downside of silver is US32, upside could go up to US70, will up my silver holding.

Did i miss out anything ?

regards
Andrew

Only when we gamble that we CANNOT anticipate what others anticipate, it is a PURE game of chance, even the dealer do not know what will come next!!!

Sounds like the situation now, i.e. what's going to come out the from Jackson Hole meeting? How is market going to react after the announcement?
It's a gamble to be in stocks right now..

Cheers

Hi andrewng,

when QE3 comes (QE3 will definitely come, whatever name they call it is irrelevant this is something I already mentioned for more than a few months), my fear is that market confidence might have already reached a Tipping point and Reflexivity sets in, so QE3 might NOT be able to reverse market trend but just result in a Bear Market Rally (Dead Cat Bounce).

Just want to highlight that I have already sold 60% of my stocks, now my Cash holdings is 52%, and stock holding is 13% of my wealth.

Investing is partly an Art, and not an exact Science.

The 2 main questions that guide me in making decisions are:
1. What if I'm wrong, will I be financially ok?
2. What is the upside? What's the downside? Take action when Upside is at least double of downside.

Other than FA and TA, using Common Sense Analysis, I ask myself:"if everyone is waiting for QE3 to get out (sell), who is going to buy?

[danielcheng]

Assuming my stock portfolio of $100k is already negative 25%. And i hold on further to confirm bailing out at 30% incase QE3 does not happen. The risk is once the sharp fall occurs, one may not have a chance to bail out at the price we want & just have to offload at whatever price that people willing to take. We may end up losing more than 30%.

Lets say QE3 happens & my stock price already lost 25% of its value, and the my stock prices stage a 35%($75k+35%) rebound from there, my portfolio would probably breakeven back to my $100k.

To be very optimistic, if i want to make a decent profit of 30%($30k) for my original investment of $100k, i will need a price rebound of around 70%. Not sure if QE3 have the energy to build that momentum.

This analogy may be overly simplistic but just trying to analyse the upside vs downside at this juncture.

There is a likelyhood it will only be a brief rally where those vested would take oppty to offload to cut lost or breakeven. Those who are brave enough to buy low lately may ride the rally to make 20-30%...should QE3 occurs.

Hi Everyone,

Let me try to anticipate what others are anticipating after reading blogs and comments from American and China heavy weight economist..

Message i get from the economist:

All seems to agree towards declining dollar and euro.

China trying to slow down economy by slowly appreciating the yuan

Gold and silver rising mostly out of decline in currency confidence and fear rather than greed, maybe still rising within the next 2 to 3 years.

Market already anticipating Fed will try all means to support asset price and reduce unemployment rate, maybe they dun call it QE3..perhaps some other fanciful name. I read somewhere that they are considering tax cut on payroll and using VAT system similar to UK.

My thinking as follows:
Market had learnt a lesson that QE1 and QE2 doesn't work so even with QE3, confidence might not be fully restored and the rally will not be a fantastic one.

Action i take:
Still keep on to my stocks and prepared to take up to 30% loss and sell if all indices 50MA cross 200MA for 5 to 10 trading days as taught.
At the same time, downside of silver is US32, upside could go up to US70, will up my silver holding.

Did i miss out anything ?

regards
Andrew

Only when we gamble that we CANNOT anticipate what others anticipate, it is a PURE game of chance, even the dealer do not know what will come next!!!

Sounds like the situation now, i.e. what's going to come out the from Jackson Hole meeting? How is market going to react after the announcement?
It's a gamble to be in stocks right now..

Cheers

[walkinepark]

Here's what Marc Faber said:

“I think what [Bernanke] will say is that they are monitoring the situation, and they will take ‘appropriate measures’ when they are required. To some extent we are in midst of QE3 already, because by announcing the Fed will keep zero interest rates until the middle of 2013, they basically encourage financial institutions to borrow short-term and to buy 10-year Treasuries.”

Full interview

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article30074.html

cheers