Sell in May and Go Away, How True is this?

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yhendra
Investing Mentor
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Sell in May and Go Away, How True is this?

Post by yhendra »

Hi I've posted this in another thread, and suggested to span out to another topic.
If you have any comments or experience on this topic please feel free contribute here.
From http://www.masteryourfinance.com/forum/ ... 195#p21195
relaxman wrote:All penny stock in top 20! Very seldom got this "scene".
When penny stock starts to fall, it is likely the end of the bull.
There is a so called 'wisdom': "sell in May and go away"!
Better beaware.
Hi, All
I zoom out to the last 3 years of STI, and draw a projection.
What do you think? The "Sell in May and Go Away" become self-fulfilling prophecy or not?

I did some observation from the past 9 years of STI (2003 - 2012)
See yourself, and make your own judgement.
For now, I didn't have time to collate what was happening during those time... Please do your own research :-)
Just not that time and context are different, so it may come, or may not come.

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Cheers!
Hendra
Like to share and give opinions.
However, please do your own homework!
You have been given the tools and the knowledge, try to fish yourself, so you will never be hungry again....
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randwick
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Re: Sell in May and Go Away, How True is this?

Post by randwick »

Equity Fund Redemptions in April Are Largest in 17 Years

By Charles Stein - Apr 27, 2012
Global investors this month pulled the most money from stock funds in any April in at least 17 years amid escalating concerns that Europe’s economy is faltering.

Equity funds had net redemptions of $18.6 billion through April 25, according to data from EPFR Global, a research firm based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The April withdrawals were the largest since at least 1996, the first year for which comparable data is available.

“April has thrown up a lot of things that could change the equation, especially in Europe,” Cameron Brandt, director of research at EPFR, said in a telephone interview.

Investors have been shifting money from stock funds since the global credit crisis sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) down 38 percent in 2008. In the U.S., money continues to flow to bond funds even as the benchmark index of big stocks has more than doubled since reaching a 12-year low in March 2009.

Mutual funds that buy U.S. stocks had withdrawals of $121 billion in the 12 months ending March 31, according to Chicago- based Morningstar Inc. (MORN) which tracks the fund industry. Bond funds attracted $191 billion over the same stretch.

Europe’s economy is struggling as spending cuts across the region undermine hiring and consumer confidence. Standard & Poor’s cut Spain’s credit rating two steps yesterday on concern the country will have to provide further fiscal support to the banking industry. A contraction of the U.K.’s economy in the first quarter put that country into its first double-dip recession since the 1970s.

U.S. Equity Category

Funds that buy U.S. stocks had $17 billion in redemptions through April 25, the most of any category, according to EPFR, which follows investment industry trends globally. Funds that buy western European stocks had withdrawals of $8.3 billion. Stock funds that invest in companies worldwide attracted $10 billion in the same period.

As a percentage of industry assets, April 2000 had the highest withdrawals on record, according to EPFR’s Brandt.

The research firm tracks traditional and alternative funds with $16 trillion in assets, including vehicles for institutions as well as individuals.

Data collected by the Investment Company Institute, a Washington-based trade group, also show equity-fund redemptions. Investors pulled $8.7 billion from domestic stock funds in the week ended April 18 and added $8.7 billion to non-U.S. equity funds and $5.3 billion to bond funds, ICI data show.

Investors, according to a Wall Street adage, typically sell in May, said Brian Leung, a global equity strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York.

“This year they decided to sell early,” Leung said in a telephone interview.

Leung’s team, in a note published yesterday, wrote that it will be hard to generate a rally in global stocks “in the absence of big, strong inflows to equity funds.”


To contact the reporter on this story: Charles Stein in Boston at cstein@bloomberg.net
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Dennis Ng
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Re: Sell in May and Go Away, How True is this?

Post by Dennis Ng »

Sell in May and go away? I do my own analysis and do NOT follow such "half-true" (part myth) investment methods.

I already started taking profits in early April 2012, as this was shared in this forum as well.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng
Dennis Ng wrote:11 Apr 2012

Market in correction. I took some profits off the table on Monday, sold Ho Bee at S$1.40 which I bought at S$1.22, also sold 1/2 of Chip Eng Seng at 51 cents. A Bird in hand is better than 2 in the trees.

Among the stocks I hold, 2 stocks stand out in contrast, going up instead of down, they are GK Goh 84.5 cents and Metro Holdings 75 cents.

Now Stocks constitutes 9% of my wealth, while Cash position is increased by 2% to 62%.
Dennis Ng wrote:
louiskst wrote:Hi all,

CES volume is getting lesser and lesser. Doest it singnaling that the price is at the peak? However XD is at 2nd of May, will CES price go up until XD date?

In term of FA, the PB ration is 0.8259.( about 18% discount ).

Any comment?

louiskst
3 April 2012

Limited upside left, max 55 cents to 57 cents. If fall below 49 cents, then likely turn down. What to do? Up to each individual.

One possibility is to sell part of your holdings to take some profits (a bird in the hand is better than 2 in the trees).
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
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