Best Book on Investing: The Intelligent Investor is here!

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accord
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Joined: Mon Oct 17, 2011 10:36 pm

Re: Best Book on Investing: The Intelligent Investor is here

Post by accord »

Hi morning

I just done a dollar cost averaging on DJIA from Jan 1999 to Dec 2012.

Monthly investment: $1,000
Total lots brought: 16.06655
Investment worth in Jan 2013: $215,484.58
Total amount spent investing: $170,000
Earnings: $45,484.58

This earnings is equivalent to only 1.7% compound interest investment over 14yrs with monthly $1000 contribution.

However if we factor in the 2% compound inflation every year. Then this investment is making a loss.


Hmm. seems like dollar cost averaging is not a good choice of invesment strategy?
ngtfook
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Re: Best Book on Investing: The Intelligent Investor is here

Post by ngtfook »

Hi Accord,

Regretted to hear your 'loss'. This can be a eye opener those who may think the buy and hold strategy still relevant to current era.

I will say Buy Right and Hold Tight for long term strategy to work. Say when you bought KeppelCorp in 2001 @ $1 / share; and hold tight till now 5Jan2013 with its price @ $11, you will be a very happy man. Take note that its price fell to $4 during financial crisis (2009), you still can sleep well as you have big margin of safety when you bought @ $1. The sweetener is that KeppelCorp's dividend is increasing over the years.

The critical success factor is the Entry Point. When you entry at the 'right' price, then you can sit tight and hold. (Go fishing strategy)

The same strategy can be apply to Index.



accord wrote:Hi morning

I just done a dollar cost averaging on DJIA from Jan 1999 to Dec 2012.

Monthly investment: $1,000
Total lots brought: 16.06655
Investment worth in Jan 2013: $215,484.58
Total amount spent investing: $170,000
Earnings: $45,484.58

This earnings is equivalent to only 1.7% compound interest investment over 14yrs with monthly $1000 contribution.

However if we factor in the 2% compound inflation every year. Then this investment is making a loss.


Hmm. seems like dollar cost averaging is not a good choice of invesment strategy?
Price is what you pay; Value is what you get
RayNg
ngtfook
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Posts: 625
Joined: Sat Mar 12, 2011 8:16 pm
Location: SG

Re: Best Book on Investing: The Intelligent Investor is here

Post by ngtfook »

Just thinking ... recap Dennis's view. :idea:

In summary, Don't follow the Guru teaching blindly. What work in the past may not be applicable now. We have to adopt to change and fine tune the strategy to present environment.



向巴菲特的师父学习投资
财务策划师吴加万。7Apr2012

目前,世界排名第二富有的是有“股神”之雅称的巴菲特。如果你有机会向巴菲特的师父学习,你会有兴趣吗?今天就让财务策划师吴加万与您分享巴菲特的师父Benjamin Graham本杰明•格雷厄姆在他的有名的投资书籍“聪明投资者”(The Intelligent Investor)第14章传授的“7招的防御性投资策略”。

1. 企业具一定规模
一个太小的企业可能不能面临大风浪的考验。因此,在选择股票投资,我们应该选具有一定规模的企业。
在新加坡上市的公司而言,那么可能是公司的市值至少$50 million ,年营业额至少$100 million。

2. 财务状况健康
从事工业的公司他们的流动资产必须超过负债的至少1倍。长期债务不应该超过净流动资产。
例如,一家公司的流动资产为$100 million,而流动负债不应该超过$50 million。净流动资产为$50 million ,而长期负债也不应该超过$50 million 。
我个人的看法是只要一家公司的总负债,(包括长期与短期负债)不超过公司的资本(Equity) 的200%,那么这家公司便可算为财务健全。当然,公司的盈利必须是负债利息费用(interest expense on borrowing)的1倍,确保就算公司的盈利减少67%,该公司仍有钱付贷款的利息。


3. 收益稳定
这家企业必须在过去至少10年,每年都有一些盈利。这显示这家公司的业务有至少一定的稳定性。
我个人的看法其实一些有周期性的行业,例如航运业,电子业,航空业,都会在行业低潮时可能出现亏损,而行业的周期可能是3到5年。因此,不可能连续10年都有盈利。
例如海皇轮船去年便亏损了超过4亿元,但是前一年却有超过4亿元的盈利。拥有周期性的行业的股票其实很好投资。
只要在周期低潮时股价低时买股票,等待行业周期高时再以高价卖掉股票。低买高卖,这样的股票其实容易赚钱。

4. 派息记录
在过去至少20年不间断地派发股息。
我个人看法为20年是太长的时间了,这个苛刻的条件会造成你错失购买上市少过20年记录的股票。只要公司过去至少连续5年派发股息,就应该算是良好的派息记录。

5. 盈利增长
在过去10多年,在开始和结束的为期3年的记录平均每股收益增加至少三分之一。
我个人的看法是只要公司的平均盈利增长超过股票的本益比就够了。一家公司的本益比是以公司的股价除以公司的每股净利。每股净利是公司的净利除以公司发行的股票数量。
例如云顶新加坡去年的盈利为10亿元,而发行的股票数量为120亿股。每股净利为8.4分。如果股价是S$1.70,那么云顶新加坡的本益比为20,股票的盈利回报为1除以本益比,或5%。
因此,如果云顶新加坡的年盈利增长超过20%,那么这家公司的股票便值得购买。如果盈利增长低于本益比便可能显示股票不值得购买。

6. 适中价格/市盈率
目前股票的价格不应该超过盈利的15倍,或本益比不应该超过15。
我个人的看法是不应该有一个“绝对”的本益比,而是以本益比与盈利增长比较,只要本益比低于盈利增长,便值得购买股票。
例如一些公司的本益比可能低过15,但是盈利没有增长,那么其实与一家本益比20,但是盈利增长30%的公司相比,其实盈利增长快速的公司一般股票的增值潜能会比较高,更值得购买。
Apple公司的本益比为17,巴菲特的师父说这家公司的股票不值得买,那么你便错失了赚钱的机会。Apple的股价从一年前的US$350上升到目前的大约US$600,或一年71%的投资回报!

7. 适中股价对净资产比率
巴菲特的师父说你应该选择购买股价不超过净资产价值的1.5倍的股票。
我个人的看法是这个投资法则可能适用于当初的工业时代。当时,大部分的上市公司从事生产,而公司的工厂与器材是公司的主要资产。
但是,我们已经步入“资讯时代”,现在很多的上市公司的最大资产不是有形的资产,而是无形的资产,包括知识产权或是市场的占有率。
例如都没簿(facebook)就没有什么有形的资产,但是这家公司的主要价值来自于客户的数量。
它拥有8亿个用户,相等于美国人口的两倍以上,以及中国人口60%!大而且还在蓬勃的增长之中,因此,这家公司目前的估计价值高达US$100 billion。

不应盲目跟从
我想要让大家注意的是当我们读一些投资书籍,就算是投资大师甚至是巴菲特的师父所写的投资书籍,我们不应全盘接受、盲目的跟从。
我们应该独立思考,在目前的社会,当时有效的投资策略是否仍然有效,或者需要我们做一些灵活的修改或灵活的运用。
以上我所分享的一些看法是我过去19年投资经验的累积。
正所谓学无止境,因此,我每天仍然继续不断学习,因为我们今天所学的可能明天便不管用了。预祝您投资如鱼得水,一本万利。
Price is what you pay; Value is what you get
RayNg
candy_chia
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Re: Best Book on Investing: The Intelligent Investor is here

Post by candy_chia »

Stock selection for the Defensive Investor

Getting started
How should you tackle the nitty-gritty work of stock selection? Graham suggests that the defensive investor can "most simply," buy every stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average or total stock-market index fund that holds essentially every stock worth having.

A low-cost index fund is the best tool ever created for low-maitenance stock investing - and any effort to improve on it takes more work (and incrus more risk and higher costs) than a truly defensive investor can justify.

Keep 90% of your stock money in an index fund, leaving 10% with which to try picking your own stocks.

~~ Only after you build that solid core should you experiment around the edges with your own stock choices.

candy_chia wrote:The Total Stock-market Index Fund is similar to what Alvin suggested,
~~ STI ETF (expense ratio of 0.3%) or
~~~ Vanguard World Stock ETF (expense ratio of 0.22%)


http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2012/06/impl ... singapore/
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... IntExt=INT

candy_chia
Investing Mentor
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Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Re: Best Book on Investing: The Intelligent Investor is here

Post by candy_chia »

Losing Some money is an Inevitable part of investing, and there's nothing you can do to prevent it.

But, to be the Intelligent Investor, you must Take RESPONSIBILITY for ensuring that You Never Lose MOST or ALL of your Money.


For the Intelligent investor,

Graham's "Margin of Safety" means that

===> By Refusing to pay Too Much for an investment,
====> you Minimise the chances that Your Wealth will Ever Disappear or Suddenly be Destroyed
.
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
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Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Re: Best Book on Investing: The Intelligent Investor is here

Post by candy_chia »

Daily exaggerated headlines scared investors in panic selling or one will likely analyse until paralysed. :shock:


Tune in to the Benjamin Graham Financial Network (BGFN), instead of CNN or Channelnewasia. (source: The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, Revised Edition.

~~ The image that fills your TV screen is the facade of the New York Stock Exchange, festooned with a huge banner reading: "SALE! 50% OFF!"


~~~
The anchorman announces brightly, "Stocks became more ATTRACTIVE yet Again today, as the Dow dropped another 25% on heavy volume - the fourth day in a row that stocks have gotten CHEAPER.

~~~~ Tech Investors fared even better, as leading companies like Microsoft lost nearly 5% on the day, making them EVEN More AFFORDABLE. That comes on top of the Good News of the past year, in which stocks have Already Lost 50%, putting them at BARGAIN levels not seen in years.

~~~~~ And some prominent analysts are Optimistic that prices may drop Still Further in the weeks and Months to come.

Pictured the anchor says cheerfully, "Falling Stock prices would be Fabulous news for Any Investor with A Very Long Horizon."

ein55 wrote:
If we are One of the Majority who Follows the Daily news, Chances of Winning will be limited.
http://www.masteryourfinance.com/forum/ ... 791#p26791
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
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Re: Best Book on Investing: The Intelligent Investor is here

Post by candy_chia »

"The Bigger they get, the Slower they Grow."

A $1 billion company can double its sales fairly easily; but where can a $50 billion company turn to find another $50 billion in business?


Growth Stocks are Worth Buying when their Prices are Reasonable, but when their Price/Earning Ratios go much above 25 or 30, the odds get ugly.

- Journalist Carol Loomis found that, from 1960 through 1999, only 8 of the largest 150 companies on the Fortune 500 list managed to raise their earnigns by an annual average of at least 15% for 2 decades.
(Carol J. Loomis, "The 15% Delusion," Fortune, February 5, 2001 pp. 102-108)

- Looking at 5 decades of data, the research firm of Stanford C. Bernstein & Co. showed that

~~ only 10% of large U.S. companies had increased their earnings by 20% for at least 5 consecutive years;
~~~ only 3% had grown by 20% for at least 10 years straight; and
~~~~ Not a Single one had done it for 15 years in a row

(Jason Zweig, "A Matter of Expectations," Money, January 2001, pp. 49-50)


A Great Company is NOT a Great Investment if you Pay Too Much for the stock.
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
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Re: Best Book on Investing: The Intelligent Investor is here

Post by candy_chia »

Intelligent Investor gets interested in Big Growth Stocks

==> NOT When they are at their Most Popular

===> But When Something GOES WRONG

In July 2002, Johson & Johnson announced that Federal regulators were investigating accusation of false record keeping at one of its drug factories, and the stock lost 16% in a single day. (US$49.52 in July 2003, but was US$72.85 at closing price)


This kind of Temporary Unpopularity can Create Lasting Wealth by enabling you to Buy a Great Company at a GOOD PRICE.



In local context, the highly publicised commercial fraud was at Asia Pacific Breweries (AP Breweries) by finance manager who forged documents to swindle banks out of S$117 million over four years, from 1999 to 2003 to feed his gambling addiction.

http://infopedia.nl.sg/articles/SIP_422_2005-01-25.html
accord
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Re: Best Book on Investing: The Intelligent Investor is here

Post by accord »

7 Ways to Find Stocks using Low Risk Investment Strategies

1. Focus on an existing business – Look at businesses with long history of operations that you can analyze. This is less risky than trying to figure out a startup.

2. Buy simple businesses in industries with an ultra slow rate of change – Buffett tells us

“we see change as the enemy of investments…so we look for the absence of change. We don’t like to lose money. Capitalism is pretty brutal. We look for mundane products that everyone needs.”

3. Buy distressed businesses in distressed industries –

“Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives it good results.”

4. Buy businesses with a moat –

“The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage. The products and services that have wide, sustainable moats around them are the ones that deliver rewards to investors.”

5. Bet heavily when the odds are overwhelmingly in your favor – if the market is offering you 10 to 1 odds in your favor for a particular company, would you bet on something else or bet heavily on that one bet and look to do it again and again?

6. Buy businesses at big discounts to their underlying intrinsic value – Minimize downside risk before ever looking at upside potential. If you were to buy an asset at a steep discount to its intrinsic value, even if the future turns out completely unexpected and worse, the odds of loss in capital are low. Ben Graham first brought this concept by stating that

“…the function of the margin of safety is, in essence, that of rendering unnecessary an accurate estimate of the future.”

7. Look for low risk, high uncertainty businesses – This is a great combination. It produces severely depressed prices for businesses. Think back to the tech bubble. Had you bought great businesses such as Adobe, Apple, Cisco etc at the depressed prices, I’m sure you would be a millionaire right now.



Buffett wrote a paper a while back called The Superinvestors of Graham and Doddsville which discusses the value investing strategies of Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett and his coalition of “The Superinvestors of Graham and Doddsville” that shows it is indeed possible to keep risk low while producing staggering returns.
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