Prof Chan Yan Chong

This forum is created to discuss everything about Investing, from investment principles, to theories, concepts, strategies to investment jargons to provide a easy reference for everyone

Moderators: alvin, learner, Dennis Ng

dragon
Gold Forum Contributor
Posts: 99
Joined: Wed Oct 07, 2009 3:48 pm

Re: Prof Chan Yan Chong

Post by dragon »

Thanks, ein55. :-)
ein55 wrote:There are 4 ways:

1) Pay and become his internet member, it updates Chan's channel for STI, KLSE, HSI on daily basis.

2) Plot yourself using his formula of Log (2) .... I tried before, not exact but 99% close

3) Buy his recent book, usually will be updated till date of publication

4) Refer to this website, not using log (2) method, but also a form of log scale to see long term trend. This is similar to Chan's channel. After "log", index diff will be little, therefore they will fall within the 2 upper/lower limits nicely, mean stock index will rise with "inflation" of 6-7%/year. Prof Chan mentioned he did not know why it has been so this way for 20 years.

http://www.asiachart.com/malaysiasing.html
(see Chart No 4 for STI)

From Asia Chart, the latest limit 4900 (upper) and 2000 (lower) aligned well with my STI predictions 2 years ago: 4800 (upper) and >2000 (lower). It is a test of vision, courage and patience ...

dragon wrote:Hi everyone,

I tried searching on the Internet for an updated chart of Prof Chan Yan Chong's Chan's Channel, to no avail. Does anyone know where I can find it? Thanks in advance. :)
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Re: Prof Chan Yan Chong

Post by candy_chia »

Dr YC Chan - 12 October 2012 Newsletter:

Last month I sent out a very brief newsletter in which I said something about holding on to your stocks and waiting for the likely good news from European Central bank and US Federal Rserve.

Good news came at last.

(1) The European Central Bank printed notes to buy the national debts of Euro zone countries, followed by

(2) US Fed's printing notes to buy real estate deferred bonds.

Besides these good news,

3) another news that could be rated as good was Chinese Communist Party's 18th party Congress would be held on 8 November.

Markets were concerned earlier that CCP might indefinitely postpone the meeting due to the power struggle in the party. Now that the date of the meeting has been fixed, the situation is thus more apparent and is a piece of good news as well.

STI at one stage rose above 3100 points, a new high in a year.

3 good news do not necessarily mean the stock markets will be plain sailing from now on.


There are few issues which may affect the rising trend of the markets.

> First being European issue; ECB buying national debts is not unconditional - countries that receive aids must cut down their public spendings and raise taxes to alleviate the fiscal deficit. These measures may bring about the political instability, people spend less and as a result economic recession which will adversely affect Singapore exports.

> Secondly, US presidential election appears to having some uncertainties. Before the first televised debate, the Gallup poll showed strong support to Obama. After the debate however, the support to Romney matched that to Obama, and the latest Gallup poll shows the rating is 50-50.

If obama lost the election, US Fed Chairman Bernanke might lose his job, as Romney has openly said that he would ask Bernanke to go if he won the presidential election. Once Bernanke is relieved of his position, his assurance of having an extreme low interest rate policy until 2015 year end may change. If so the stock markets may face difficulties as well.

Euro and US already started printing notes. When is China's turn" It may be after the 18th party Congress when the new leaders have their hands on the economic issues.]

For the time being, they may do some minor changes and monitor the impact of Euro US note printing and the inflation data before making a decision.

On the whole however, the situation remains optimistic.
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Re: Prof Chan Yan Chong

Post by candy_chia »

Dr YC Chan - 15 November 2012 newsletter:

US Dow Jone Index plummetted 312 points the first two days after the Presidential election; stabilised only on the third day.

The cause led to the fall was credit rating agency Fitch said that if US President and the Congress could not solve the fiscal cliff problem, the US AAA credit rating would be downgraded. The entire Wall Street thus focussed on this so called fiscal cliff issue.

What is this fiscal cliff all about?

Simply, Obama’s fiscal policy does not have the Republican Party’s support. Obama wants to impose heavy taxes on the super rich, a policy opposed by Republican congressmen. If both sides do not compromise, US President’s fiscal budget put up to the Congress would not be passed, and this would amount to all of them jumping down the cliff.

fiscal cliff.png
fiscal cliff.png (240.19 KiB) Viewed 28120 times
Would Obama jump down the cliff? I do not think so. Beside the Presidential election, there were Senate and Congress elections as well.

Obama had earlier hoped that the Democratic Party could recapture the control of the Congress but in the end the Congress remained in the hand of the Republican Party. The number of votes Obama obtained also fell far below that of 4 years ago. Imposing heavy taxes on the super rich was Obama’s campaign slogan; he has to face the reality after the election. Without Republicans’ support, Obama can never be able to implement his tax polilcy.

After 2 days stock fall, Obama said publicly that the fiscal cliff issue could be discussed and compromised. He keeps the issue open and at the same time proposes his base line ie. the super rich would no longer enjoy the near expired huge tax concession carried down from the previous President.

I think Obama who has been firm on his stand would step backward to compromise with the Republicans in order to get his budget passed. If all of them jump down the cliff Obama will be the one hurt most; his government will not have monies to spend and will weaken the economy.

President Bush’s tax reduction plan will continue but the concessional tax reduction for the super rich modified. In other word, tax will be increased from present level which equates to Obama’s base line.

For the next 2 months the negotiation process will be highly turbulent and the stock markets the same as well. At the end of the days however, the markets should be back to normal
stock market ride.png
stock market ride.png (123.96 KiB) Viewed 28120 times
as never before the President and the Congress had any issue unresolved.

The so called fiscal cliff is commonly analysed being the cause of US stock fall.

In reality the fiscal cliff had been the discussed topic for a long time. The issue surfaces up certainly could be the master work of the BIG CROCODILES of Wall Street.
crocodile.png
crocodile.png (99.39 KiB) Viewed 28120 times
No matter Obama or Rommey won the election the fiscal cliff issue was already there. The question is who has the louder voice. The credit rating agency gave the warning on 7 November.

The big crocodiles sold short at the time, letting the market to fall. The fiscal cliff issue thus certainly becomes a hot topic again. If US stock fall with the shadow of the big crocodiles behind it, it is better to be cautious and stand aside for the time being.


Chinese version of Dr YC Chan's November newsletter:
http://www.masteryourfinance.com/forum/ ... &start=105
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Re: Prof Chan Yan Chong

Post by candy_chia »

Dr YC Chan - 11 January 2013 newsletter:

2012 has gone by. On New Year eve, my wife and I were with the crowd near Tsim Sha Tsui Cultural Centre to watch the count down. Everyone was hoping for a better New Year. However, economy and life are always subjected to ups and downs.

The aftermath of 2009 global financial tsunami has been far reaching; post crisis impact is still with us today.

~~ US launched QE1, QE2 and QE3 by printing currency notes, but US economy has yet to recover; unemployment rate remains high, and real estate market is till at its ebb.

~~~ The problem of European national debts seems to have resolved, as European Central Bank has decided to print UNLIMITED amount of Currency Notes to buy national debts of Euro zone, on condition that countries receiving the aid must tighten up their public expenditure, and exercise that could lead to Economic Recession in Erope.

~~~~ The 3rd large economy, Japan is even worse. The Change Prime Minister Every Year. Why?

It is because nobody can solve the country's economic problems.
Now that Liberal Democratic Party is running the country again, it has decided to wantonly Print Currency notes to Rescue the economy.

~~~~~ China was the Most Prudent country in 2012, not dared to print currency notes to stimulate the economy due to experiencing high inflation rate in 2011, and had to squeeze the money supply then.

In the last month of 2012 Chinese market however, after prolonged bearish trend certainly turned around rapidly. Investors are now fancying China might print currency notes again to stimulate the eonomy.

In short, it seems 2013 is the year in which whole world would be PRINTING CURRENCY NOTES.


In theory, abundant cash will lead to Inflation we are concerned with.

But the US printed currency notes consequent to the quantitative easing monetary policy are retained in the financial circle without bendfiting the real economy to create employment.

With High Unemployment rate, people will not dare to spend monies, and without spending, there will be no inflation.

Inflation equates to prices of consumable goods for which if no increase in consumption, prices will not go up. The monies retained in the financial circle thus become Hot Monies Moving the market.


Therefore, the reason Singapore market certainly surged upward in the last month of 2012 is because QE3 monies became hot monies flowing to Singapore.

After prolong negotiations, the US fiscal cliff issue was at last settled on the last day of 2012.

We can Optimistically look forward to his year's markets.


But Rising markets DO NOT MEAN the Economy is better.
The US and European economies do not seem to have recovered yet.
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Re: Prof Chan Yan Chong

Post by candy_chia »

(5) Search for Remisers or dealers that subscribed to Dr YC Chan's newsletter. After all, we are footing them for the commission for stock purchased.
ein55 wrote:There are 4 ways:

1) Pay and become his internet member, it updates Chan's channel for STI, KLSE, HSI on daily basis.

2) Plot yourself using his formula of Log (2) .... I tried before, not exact but 99% close

3) Buy his recent book, usually will be updated till date of publication

4) Refer to this website, not using log (2) method, but also a form of log scale to see long term trend. This is similar to Chan's channel. After "log", index diff will be little, therefore they will fall within the 2 upper/lower limits nicely, mean stock index will rise with "inflation" of 6-7%/year. Prof Chan mentioned he did not know why it has been so this way for 20 years.

http://www.asiachart.com/malaysiasing.html
(see Chart No 4 for STI)

From Asia Chart, the latest limit 4900 (upper) and 2000 (lower) aligned well with my STI predictions 2 years ago: 4800 (upper) and >2000 (lower). It is a test of vision, courage and patience ...

dragon wrote:Hi everyone,

I tried searching on the Internet for an updated chart of Prof Chan Yan Chong's Chan's Channel, to no avail. Does anyone know where I can find it? Thanks in advance. :)
ein55
Investing Mentor
Posts: 864
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2010 12:31 am

Re: Prof Chan Yan Chong

Post by ein55 »

Most world economy superpower have shown hands ... print more money. Those who keep the money/cash in pocket or bank, will feel the pressure, esp when inflation is up with weaker currency, they are forced to invest to protect the value of their money. Fund managers have taken the first steps, hot$ starts to flow around.

Hu Li Yang and Prof Chan will organize seminars this week / new few weeks in Singapore, appreciate those who attend to share the latest views.
Einstein: "Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler".
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-education-on-investment-programs-by-dr-tee/
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Re: Prof Chan Yan Chong

Post by candy_chia »

曾淵滄博士-股市资讯专栏 04.01.2013
曾渊沧博士专栏
文: 曾渊沧博士 2013年01月04日 曾渊沧博士专栏
Dr YC Chan - 4 January 2013 newsletter (published on shares Investment):

刚过去的2012年,新加坡与香港股市表现得还不错,主要动力来自美国QE3。去年9月美国推出QE3后,股市直线上升。我的两只爱股银河娱乐(027)与越秀地产(123)都录得超过一倍升幅。银娱升带动持有银娱1.625亿股的嘉华国际(173)也水涨船高,股价升幅达89%,跑赢大部份香港地产股。

香港地产股中,新世界发展(017)表现十分理想,股价上升92%。去年年初,我向大家推荐两只在2011年跌得最惨的蓝筹股,希望在2012年,这两只跌得很惨的蓝筹股能大幅度反弹。结果新世界发展博中了。思捷环球(330)则跑输大市,去年股价仅上升7%。就算把8港元的供股价也算进去,依然跑输恒指。

去年,汇丰控股(005)股价升幅达38%,同类的渣打集团(2888)升幅仅15%,远远跑输汇控。渣打在今年应该有追落后的条件。今年我不会再推荐去年恒指成份股中表现最差的两只股,原因是去年全年恒指是上升的,在升市中表现得很差,股价逆市下跌者,必然有一些真正的缺点,不易在一年内纠正。只有在恒指于一年内大跌时,表现最差的两只股才值得博,那是2008年的中信泰富(267)与富士康国际(2038)及2011年的思捷环球与新世界发展。


2013年是我们与热钱共舞的一年。热钱不会推动实体经济,只会引来投机、炒作。

2013 is characterterised with infux of Hot money (or speculative capital), which will not strengthen the economy, but will result in speculative activities and bubbles in stocks & properties.



新加坡与香港去年的经济状况并不理想,西方国家消费力下降影响出口来自西方国家的旅客也会减少。

2013年最大的期望是来自中国的旅客会增加,而且消费能力也增加。


The economic performance of Singapore and Hongkong in 2012 is mediocre. A drop in the purchasing power of the west had affected exports and will probably cause dwindling tourism.

Expectation of surging tourists with greater purchasing power from China hopefully could spur up the economy in 2013.


美国不停的印钞票,从QE1、QE2到QE3及QE3.5,经济依然低迷。但又不能不印钞票,因为美国政府所发行的国债已经不再是全世界最受欢迎的保值投资产品。

美国联邦储备局印钞票的目的就是购买这些已不很受欢迎的美国政府国债及美国房屋按揭贷款债券。如果美国联邦储备局不买这些债券,这些债券就会大贬值,推高利率,利率一升高,美国经济会进一步跌入深渊。因此,明知印钞票推动不了实体经济,但不印钞票情况会更糟糕。

2011年,欧债危机困扰整个欧洲。但是2012年9月,当欧洲中央银行表示将无限量地印钞票来购买欧元区国家的国债之后,欧元稳定了,欧债稳定了。但是,欧洲中央银行的钞票也同样会化成热钱到处兴风作浪。估计,在2013年里,美国仍会处于超低利率的情况。

因此,尽管有买家印花税(BSD)与特别印花税(SSD),要显著地压下楼价仍然不容易,

It is an arduous task to rely on the implementation of cooling measures like Buyer's Stamp Duty (BSD) and Special Stamp Duty (SSD) to curd soaring residential property prices.


===> 只有当供应大大增加之后,楼价才会下降。
Property price will only slide, with tremendous incrase in the land supply.

今年的圣诞节与家人在曼谷度过。我到过曼谷数次,是一个理想的轻松度假地点。在曼谷度假的最大好处是经济实惠,十年前在旅游区一般餐馆吃一碗鱼丸面是40泰铢,街边小店的泰式按摩每小时只收250泰铢。今日鱼丸面、泰式按摩的收费竟然与十年前一模一样。这次游曼谷第一次坐嘟嘟车,很好玩,很有地方风味,收费便宜到你不相信。看来今日曼谷的一般工资水平,已经比中国沿海大城市低许多。泰国在制造业方面已经崛起,成为中国强而有力的竞争者。

我估计,今日中共中央高层正努力地推动城镇化,鼓励农民入城,鼓励农村城镇化。目的就是要让更多农民入城当工人,当服务员,以压低工资的涨幅。中国工人的工资在过去几年快速增加,大大地削弱了出口竞争力。不过,工人工资增加则加强了工人的消费能力。只可惜,中国人喜欢储蓄,钱赚了先储蓄,先苦后甜。大家千万不要以香港名牌店的中国豪客来代表全中国。毕竟,中国是个13亿人口的国家,有多少人出现在香港名牌店?这些人占全国人口的比例是极小极小的。


热钱不断地流入香港,但是最终目的地不是香港,而是中国股市。

The Ultimate target of the massive influx of fund ("Hot money") into Hongkong is China Stock Market.


前一阵子香港金管局总裁陈德霖报喜讯说,中国政府会放宽RQFII(人民币合格境外机构投资者),但是究竟放宽的程度如何?

不得而知。
~~ 如果门开大一点,热钱就会再涌入,
~~~ 如果门开得太小,热钱挤不进,随时会流走。


现在,中共最高领导层换了人,但政府仍未换届,作为看守政府的总理温家宝,相信任满前仍不会有什么大的政策推出,以免被人指为新政府定下方向及框框。

也许,我们还得耐心地等待李克强接任后,才会有大的政策转变。这有如2009年初,美国将离任的总统布什什么事也没有做。QE1是等到奥巴上任之后,同年3月才推出,因此,现在我也有些担心,目前热钱不断涌入香港而等得不耐烦。实际上,今日香港一般股票的估值是相当便宜的,我也不明白为什么热钱会集中炒A股挂牌交易基金(ETF)?或许,这只是一个假象,真正炒起A股ETF的是香港的散户本身。散户听闻热钱流入A股ETF,也跟风跟入。大行见A股ETF热卖,就印发A股ETF的窝轮(warrant)应市,散户抢购A股ETF的窝轮,窝轮发行商也得入市买A股ETF以对冲风险。如此造成热钱炒A股ETF的现象。

如今,美股已升至相当接近创历史新高的水平,美国企业赚钱真的都比2007年的时候还高吗?倒是香港上市企业,的的确确盈利水平多已超越2007年的高峰期。因此,我认为一旦美股创历史新高,由美国流入的热钱迟早会认识港股的价值。

过去几年,日本民主党执政期间,日元汇价走强,导致日本经济疲弱不堪。因此,当日本国会解散,进行大选时,日元就开始贬值。因为外汇炒家知道这一回的选举,民主党一定惨败,自民党会重新执政。而自民党重新执政,一定会改变日元强势的政策。现在,选举结果揭晓,自民党果然再度执政,首相安倍晋三一上任,就订下2%的通胀目标,要努力推高通胀至2%。推高通胀最简单的做法,当然是让日元贬值。因此,今后一段较长的时间,日元可能连续贬值。日元贬值会产生日元外流的现象,因此香港的热钱来源除了美国,又多了日本。

美、欧、日大印钞票而中国不印钞票的结果,是人民币会有升值的压力。

The implication for Printing of money by US, Europe, Japan, with Exception of China is that Chinese Yuan (renminbi) will face upward pressure.


现在,大量热钱来香港,等待中国开放RQFII额度。

一旦开放,美欧日就会以印出来的钞票换取中国企业的股权,如此一来,吃亏的还是中国自己。

过去几年,中国政府一直想用外汇储备来购买外国的企业股票与天然资源。但是,在美、欧、日不断印钞票的影响下,美股升值,天然资源也升值,手上的外汇储备能买到的东西少了。因此,坚持自己不印钞票并不是最正确的做法。

靠介绍形式上市的中集集团(2039)更是一项新创意。中集上市没有集资,是把内地B股全部转换成H股。这是第一只B股转H股的行动,只许成功不许失败。成功了,将来许多内地B股也会源源不绝转成H股来香港上市,最后B股交易关门,完成其历史任务。将来大量B股来港上市,得益最大的当然是香港交易所(388)。港交所股价在前阵子因为收购伦敦金属交易所(LME)而大跌,现在已成功配售新股集资来完成收购。配售新股所产生的摊薄比率不大。
现在热钱流入香港,B股来港转H股,都是支持港交所股价的利好因素。


http://www.sharesinv.com/zh/articles/36493/


Note:
- Buyer's Stamp Duty (BSD) is chargeable on all sales and purchases of Residential Flats Except where a buyer is a Hong Kong Permanent Resident (HKPR).

- Special Stamp Duty (SSD) - Any residential property acquired on or after 27 October 2012, either by an individual or a company (regardless of where it is incorporated), and resold within 36 months, will be subject to the new rates of SSD upon the enactment of the relevant legislation.


If the property was acquired on or after 27 October 2012, -

(i) 20% if the property has been held for six months or less;
(ii) 15% if the property has been held for more than six months but for 12 months or less; and
(iii) 10% if the property has been held for more than 12 months but for 36 months or less.

http://www.ird.gov.hk/eng/faq/ssd.htm#a1
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Re: Prof Chan Yan Chong

Post by candy_chia »

Dr YC Chan - 13 February 2013 newsletter:


The first day 年初一 of this Lunary Year of Snake fell on Sunday, we had 3 public holidays and for many people, plus a non-working Saturday.Therefore, many people left Hong Kong for vacation overseas. On the first opening day of the stock market in the Year of Snake, many people will still be overseas. I am no exception, being on vacation in England.

I am optimistic on stock markets in the Year of Snake. I do not see US Fed would raise the interest rate in the Year of Snake, nor would stop printing currency notes. So is Japan. European debt problems basically have been resolved.

Barring any form of financial crisis, stock markets should be bullish in this Year of Snake.



The simplest method in a big bull maket is to PATIENTLY HOLD ON to Your Stocks, NOT afraid of Market fluctuations, and just let the market runs its course.
大牛市最简单投资方法是长揸不放, 耐心的持有, 不怕震仓, 不避调整; 有调整也由他调整, 不理不睬。


Many people do not make money in a big bull market because

====》 they want to SPECULATE on Every Market Adjustment, HOPING to Sell their holdings before adjustment and Buy Back at a lower price after adjustment.

许多人在牛市中赚不到最多的钱是因为他们想捕捉每一次的调整, 希望趁调整前沽出股票,调整后再捞底买回,


Unfortunately most of the times, they are unable to buy back what they have sold, or have to buy back at a higher price and make less money.
可惜往往捕捉不到调整前的高位及调整后的低位, 股票卖掉了买不会来, 或者以更高的价位买回, 少赚了很多钱。



Before selling your holdings in a Bull Market, please recall how many times in a bull market
因此, 在牛市中你想沽出股票前, 不妨回忆一下, 你在过去的牛市中,

==》 you were able to Buy Back at Lower Price for what you had sold?
有多少次沽出股票而能低价买回?

===》 How Good you are at Catching the Right Timing of Market Adjustments?
你捕捉调整浪的水平, 准确率有多高?



If it is only 50-50, then you are virtually gambling on big-small dice.

如果你在过去捕捉调整浪不超过50%, 那么, 每一次的沽货行为实际上都在赌大小, 何必呢?

I dare not, and am not able to predict which sector of stocks would outperform the market.

我不敢, 也没有能力猜测整个蛇年那一种股票板块会跑前大市。

For the Short Term, I am positive with Property and Bank Stocks.
不过, 至少在短期内, 我看好的板块依然是地产股及银行股
ein55
Investing Mentor
Posts: 864
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2010 12:31 am

Re: Prof Chan Yan Chong

Post by ein55 »

Follow the trend of mid term wave (every 6-12 months) to buy/sell is a safer method (half trading / half investing) but one probably can only sell around 75% of last rise and buy back around 25% from the bottom, earning around 50% of the entire rise. This method is effective if there is major correction (eg. 2010-2012 flat market) as the dip could be as much as 10% - 25%. If the corrections are minor (<10%), esp during truly bullish market, this method may not be so effective, the selling price and next buying price may not be too much diff, main diff is probably selling at X price at downtrend and buy back at the same X price at next uptrend. The worst is buying back at much higher price than X.

Anyway, it is imply an individual investment strategy, a personal choice, just be consistent.
Einstein: "Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler".
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-education-on-investment-programs-by-dr-tee/
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Re: Prof Chan Yan Chong

Post by candy_chia »

Hi ein55,

Thank you the reminder to apply Consistency in investing method.
ein55 wrote:
Follow the trend of mid term wave (every 6-12 months) to buy/sell is a safer method (half trading / half investing) but

1) one probably can only Sell around 75% of Last Rise and Buy Back around 25% from the Bottom, Earning around 50% of the Entire Rise. This method is effective if there is MAJOR Correction (eg. 2010-2012 flat market) as the dip could be as much as 10% - 25%.


(2) If the Corrections are MINOR (<10%), esp during Truly Bullish Market, this method may NOT be so effective,

==> the selling price and next buying price may not be too much diff, main diff is probably Selling at X price at Downtrend and Buy Back at the SAME X price at Next Uptrend.
==> The worst is Buying Back at much Higher Price than X.

Anyway, it is imply an individual investment strategy, a personal choice, just be Consistent.
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Re: Prof Chan Yan Chong

Post by candy_chia »

曾淵滄博士- 2013 年 03 月 08 日

Dr YC Chan - 8 March 2013 newsletter:

先宣布一下自己个人的动向,我已辞任香港城市大学的全职工作,今后以特约教授 Adjunct Professor 的身份兼职,仍然与城市大学保持一定的联系。放下全职的工作,自由度提高,也许,将来会多些机会回新加坡与大家见面。

I have resigned and relinguished my full time works from Hong Kong City University to become a part rime Adjunct Professor in the University. I
shall have more time of my own and come back to Singapore more often to meet you all.

美股终於创历史新高,昨晚(3 月 5 日) 道琼斯指数破 2007 年的高位 14198 点,收市时为 14253 点。

US stock market hit the historcal high; last night (05 March) Dow Jones Index broke the 2007’s high 14198 points to close at 14253.


美股创新高肯定会对全球股市带来支持,激励的作用。

过去几个月,我不停地告诉大家我看好股市,并劝大家不好随意卖掉股票,卖掉了很可能买不回来

By reaching new high, the US market will support and stimulate global markets.

For the past months I had been saying I was positive of the market outlook, and advised all of you NOT to sell your holdings, as you might not be able to buy back after selling them.


过去一个月,美股在创新高前也曾经出现激烈的震动,这包括当联储局公布上一次会议记录后,投资者担心联储局会提早退市,於是股价一度大幅下跌。还有,当意大利国会选举出现悬峙国会,政府难产,投资者又担心新的欧债危机会发生,美股又大跌,但是,很明显的,两次大跌都只是创新高前的时痛

Before hitting New High one month ago, US stocks experienced Severe Volatilities, including the time when investors worried
~~ US Fed might pull out of the markets after releasing records of the Fed meeting. Prices of stocks then fell sharply.
~~~ The outcome of the Italian parliamentary election was undecisisive; investors again worried another new European debt issue might be on the card, prompting US stocks to fall again.

It is obvious now that those Sharp Declines were painful preludes to leading new high later.


中国全国人大开幕,温家宝最后一份工作报告大谈经济发展,增加货币供应,这也是利好股市的消息。

~~ 新加坡政府今年的财政预算也大派钱。

~~~ 美国联储局正副主席更公开地再度为 QE 辩护,量化宽松货币政策看来还会推行一段相当长的时间。

~~~~ 日本也在狂印钞票,
~~~~~ 欧盟说要打货币战,若真打货币战,自然也会大印钞票,全球继续狂印钞票,

===> 利率低至与零差不多,钱存在银行没利息,自然会被逼投资

On the opening day of the Chinese People’s Congress, the Chinese Premier Wen Jia Bao reported and spoke about China’s economic development and the increase of monetary supplies. His speech is good news to stock markets.

~~ Singapore Government’s current year budget also promises to distribute large sums of monies.
~~~ The Chairman and the Vice Chairman of the US Federal Reserve openly defend the QE policy.It looks like the Fed is going to continue its QE policy for a long time to come.
~~~~ Japan is also printing large sums of monies.
~~~~~ European Union is talking about fighting a monetary warfare. If so, EU will print large sums of monies as well.


The whole world will keep on printing monies, and the interest rate will become near zero.

Since depositing monies in the banks does not earn any interest, investors have No choice But to Invest.
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Re: Prof Chan Yan Chong

Post by candy_chia »

对一名长期投资者而言,最兴奋的日子就是灾难发生时,每逢灾难就是机会,长期投资者不应该高追股票,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束。
- 曾渊沧博士

Image

Stock market corrections, although painful at the time, are actually a very healthy part of the whole mechanism, because there are always speculative excesses that develop, particularly during the long bull market.
Ron Chernow





曾淵滄博士- 2013 年 04 月 17 日

Dr YC Chan - 17 April 2013 newsletter:

I have not written newsletters for sometime as Singapore stock market is neither here nor there.

The market is stagnant, and I have nothing much to write for reference.

有好一段日子没有写通讯,原因是近两个月来新加坡股市几乎失去方向,升则升不上,跌也跌不下,僵住了,买也不是,卖也不是,我也不知道该写些什么让大家参考。

The US stock market has been hitting new high.

Chinese and Hong Kong markets on the other hand are going through a period of adjustments which to some extent affect the Singapore market.

China published the economic data two days ago, giving a general impression its economy is slowing down. As a result, prices of gold and natural resources tumbled; so was the US market. Chinese economy is now having an impact on the world.

美国股市是在不断地创新高。但是中国、香港股市正处於调整期,多多少少也影响了新加坡股市。

前天,中国政府公布最新的经济数据,一般认为中国经济在放缓,於是金价狂跌,其他天然资源的价格也大跌。美国股市同样大跌,中国的经济动态已开始影响全世界。


The tumbling of gold price is not out of the blue. It has been falling for sometime.


The price of gold was cheap before the financial tsunami. The voluminous printing of currency notes by the US government after the financial tsunami led to investors foreseeing US currency to devalue and inflation to rise, thus buying gold to preserve value.

当然,金价大跌不是突然的;金价已经跌了好一段日子,金价在金融海啸前是很便宜的,金融海啸发生后,美国狂印钞票,投资者预期美元会贬值,通胀率会上升,於是买金保值。


Today’s gold has lost its monetary intrinsic value; gold buyers and sellers are speculators as the gold based monetary policy had disappeared long time ago.


今日的黄金已失去货币的价值,黄金的买卖主要是投机作用,所谓的金本位的货币制度早已消失。

However, there are still people who believe holding gold preserve the monetary value in time of inflation. The voluminous printingof US currency notes led to inflationary expectation, and speculators were buying up gold, pushing the price of gold to climb drastiscally after the financial tsunami.

不过世界上仍然有些人认为如果通胀率很高,持有黄金可以保值。於是,在美国狂印钞票的背景之下,不少人预期通胀率会高升。於是投机者大量抢购黄金,迅速地推高金价,黄金价格就是在金融海啸之后狂升。

The price of gold cannot keep going up forever, especially when the US inflation rate remains very low years after currency note printing. Thus, buying gold to counter inflation has lost its purpose, and some people begin to dispose off gold.

但是黄金价格不可能无止境地升,特别是在美国狂印钞票这么多年之后,美国依然没有出现通胀,通胀率很低很低。通胀率很低,买黄金来对冲通胀的价值消失了,於是有人开始沽售黄金。

Few days ago, the price of gold fell below US$1,500 an onze, and with media’s emphatic publication, it fell further. On 15 April, the price of gold tumbled 9%; those high leverage speculators must have been forced to clear out and leave the scene.

前几日,当金价跌破每安士 1500 美元后,传媒开始大事报导,传媒的报导推动金价再跌。4 月 15 日,金价一日下跌 9%,吓死人。那些以高捍杠比例炒金,持好仓的投机者恐怕已全部被逼斩仓离场。

Interestingly, when the price of gold tumbles, goldsmith shops are crowded with people buying physical gold jewels, gold coins, bullions, and gold pieces……..

有趣的是,金价狂跌时,金店挤满了人,很多人抢着买金,买实实在在的黄金首饰,买金币,金条,金粒………

I dare not predict if the price of gold has hit bottom at this level; but since it has tumbled so fast, it will for the short term rebound.

我不敢预测金价在现水平见底,但是,金价如此急速的下跌,短期内价格必会反弹。

The stock market trend is unclear atthe moment. However, I am optimistic for the medium to long term. Consider buying in whenever there are sizeable market adjustments.

Image

近一段日子,股市没有方向。但是,我依然看好中长线,因此,每一次当股市遇上较大幅度的调整时,都值得趁机买入。

The slow down in Chinese economy may not be a bad thing; Chinese stock market is going through a period of adjustments due to government’s own intention, as it gives the opportunity for the government to change the course of its monetary tightening policy, which is good for the stock markets.

中国经济放缓不是坏事,目前中国股市之所以处於调整,完全是中国政府自己出手打压,经济放缓有机会改变中国政府抽紧银根的作法,这将对股市有利。
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Re: Prof Chan Yan Chong

Post by candy_chia »

"In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Albert Einstein


Dr Chan Yan Chong Column
By Dr Chan Yan Chong, 3 May 2013


In the previous issue, I described Singapore’s stock market as directionless after hitting multi-year highs. At the same time, the US stock market continued to surge while the Shanghai stock market fell. The latter broke the 2,200 support, which dragged down the performance of the Hong Kong and Singapore markets.

Due to the bullish US stock market, the falls in the Hong Kong and Singapore markets were negligible while the short rallies were more powerful than the Chinese stock market. Just before the close of the fortnight, the Hong Kong and Singapore markets rallied as the latter reached levels not seen since 2007.

19 April, there were talks that Morgan Stanley would include the China A shares into the MSCI emerging market index.


This piece of news propped up the Chinese, Hong Kong and Singapore markets but Chinese shares fell back to where they started merely a week later. However, gains in the Hong Kong and Singapore markets made more headway allowing the two-day moving average (MA) to cut the 19-day MA from below. This is a sign that markets are improving.

The property stocks in Hong Kong such as Cheung Kong Holdings (HK: 0001) and Henderson Land (HK: 0012) have continued to outperform the broader market after the two tycoon owners bought into the shares in their respective companies. There is no speculator that will dare fight against the tycoons by doing short-selling.

Once the China A shares are included in the MSCI indices, the shares will definitely rise because fund managers will then have to buy up these shares to track the index closely. Morgan Stanley must speak to the Chinese authorities before making such a move as China’s stock and foreign exchange markets are not fully-opened to foreigners. I believe it is just a matter of time before such a move becomes real, hence, I will be buying into the A50 ETF on any further weaknesses.



My beloved AIA (HK: 1299) announced good news when it reported a 25.4 percent increase in its core business in Hong Kong. I believe this share will make new highs very soon and it is also a core component of my portfolio. It is a slow and steady stock that is worth buying even at current prices.

AIA will NOT Behave like CNBM (HK: 3323) – a stock I recommended that rose ten folds – because it is a stock that we should buy during a crisis.
If you had bought this stock when it was less than Rmb 1 in 2008, you would have made 23 times your money if you had sold it in 2011.

There are many types of stocks: the volatile stock or the operator stock, the cyclical stock and the long-term stock.

===> If you are not careful in buying Cyclical Stocks, you could easily get caught on the high side

Image

====> while the Volatile Stocks are usually driven by Rumours and Syndicates that can Make you either Very Rich or Very Poor.



Image

Apart from AIA, Prudential (HK: 2378) has also been making fresh highs while Power Assets (HK: 0006), Cheung Kong Infrastructure (HK: 1038) and HK & China Gas (HK: 0003) are also stocks that are more defensive in nature.

These stocks are similar to ST Engineering, DBS, OCBC and UOB that are strong in fundamentals yet have the potential for long-term growth[/size].


Image

I am against chasing after any form of stocks when they are on the high.

We should always be PATIENT and WAIT for Better Opportunities before buying.


Image

When there is a 10 percent correction, there is always a chance that we can make more than the 10 percent that was lost during the correction. We must note that even the best stocks will correct heavily in the bear market.

2008 provided us with the best opportunities to buy into stocks. Plenty of investors sold into a correction and never had the chance to buy back.

By Buying into Fundamentally Strong Stocks, we can be sure that it will come back sooner or later. Such stocks can withstand corrections and come back stronger.


The earthquake in Sichuan led to speculation in stocks related to the rebuilding theme. This lasted no more than a day and resulted in losses for plenty of people. What is there to speculate when the disaster zone is a rural area with simple houses that do not require steel or concrete? Why hammer insurance stocks when the people are too poor to insure their properties? Moreover, insurance policies do not cover damages caused by acts of nature.

Gold prices fell and plenty of people flocked to the goldsmiths to buy physical gold. When such a scenario appeared, even the speculators chickened out and stopped attacking gold prices. It is obvious that the price fall was caused by the international speculators.

The 9 percent fall in gold price led to a great deal of hype in the media but not many would have thought that the buyers of gold would come in the form of end users. But the buying volume is too small and may not have too big an impact on international gold prices.

http://www.sharesinv.com/articles/2013/ ... -column-2/

When Defensive Stocks Plays Offense, May 1st, 2013
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/0 ... s-offense/
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Re: Prof Chan Yan Chong

Post by candy_chia »

Dr YC Chan mentioned in his book, Market Revelation, 市场给你的101个投资啓示:

Shares Investment is afterall a Highly Risky Game.

股市投资毕竟是风险很大的游戏, 我相信《上得山多终遇虎》的哲学。

With a smooth investment journey from the onset, one will become OVERLY-Confident,

===> as a result, will pour Increasingly amount of funds into the bull market.

=====> Ultimately, when the fund is being wiped out during the finale of bull market, one may Not have the opportunity Fund to restart the "Business", especially when one is near retirement age.



Image



如果你一开始投资就很顺利,无往不利,你过度的自信心会使你投入的资金越来越多,结果,在临退休,最后的一个周期翻了船, 你可没有本钱东山再起了。”
Dennis Ng wrote:
I once met one elderly man who got very emotional when I spoke about Stock Investing.

He told me please don't talk about stock investing to him....later then I found out from him he retired with about S$1 million and lost over 90% of it in Clob shares...it was a mistake that he could NEVER recover from, since he's Retired and has No Income...
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Re: Prof Chan Yan Chong

Post by candy_chia »

曾淵滄博士- 2013 年 05 月 22 日

Dr YC Chan - 22 May 2013 newsletter:

From February to April this year, Singapore stock market went through a nonchalant period of neither up nor down; not until April did the market break the deadlock to rise swiftly.

Now it has hit the 5 year high, ready to match the 2007 historic high.


Image

US stock market hit the historic high in the 1Q this year, and has kept rising to new high since. Singapore market had been somewhat affected by Chinese market until 2nd half of April.

In early May there was some indication Chinese market, having thouched the bottom would turn around. On April 29 the Communist Party paper People’s Daily (人民日报) published 2 articles on stock markets, a very rare happening for a paper that has been writing politics all along.

Thus, the 2 articles on April 29 deserve our attention. The 2 articles have one common view: that Chinese market should have touched bottom and turn around. In the past the decline of Chinese market was due to the West’s unfavourable comments.

If you believe the 2 articles of People’s Daily, then you should have more confidence in Chinese and Singapore markets.


The certain strengthening of US$ leads to the downfall of the gold price and capital return back to the US.

Someone in the US Federal Reserve (not the President) has mentioned that the Fed might stop buying bonds in 2nd half this year. I think this is just a tactic used by the US government to prevent devaluation of US$.

If US$ devalues, it will not be able to maintain its position as a global hard currency and foreign reserve currency of other countries.

Therefore, the US must do something to maintain US$ position while at the same time printing voluminous currency notes.

As I analysed 2 years ago, the European debt crisis then was caused by the US 1st tactical move.

Now the European Central Bank has started printing monies and has sloved the debt problems, the US is encouraing Japan to devalue Jap¥to reflect the emphatic rise of the US$.

The recent one Fed official’s personal and irresponsible remark is to influence the global financial markets.


The rise in US stocks is pushed by the capital flowing back to the US.

US stocks keep rising to new high is good to Singapore market; we can invest confidently.

不过,无论如何,美股不断创新高对新加坡股市一定是好事,大家可以更积极的投资。

To buy strongly supported stocks, to buy breaking 52 weeks new high stocks, to buy breaking historic high stocks, or to pursue under performed stocks?


I think

===> it is time to buy STRONGLY SUPPORTED stocks.



Image

===> You may pursue the UNDERPERFORMED stocks AFTER STI Hit the 2007 Peak.



买强势股,买创 52 周新高,买创历史新高的股,还是买落后股,以追落后?

我认为,

==> 目前仍然是买强势股的时候,


===> 要买落后股,可以等到海峡时报指数破2007 年高峰期之后才追入


Full text in Chinese version:
http://www.masteryourfinance.com/forum/ ... 809#p27809
Post Reply