Prof Chan Yan Chong
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walkinepark
- Platinum Forum Contributor
- Posts: 296
- Joined: Fri Jan 29, 2010 2:42 pm
Prof Chan will have a seminar on May 28 (see www.shareinvestor.com) in Singapore. Hope to learn from him, esp on psychology of investment.
There is another Chinese forum with his regular articles:
http://www.sharesinv.com/zh/?author=8
He seems to think QE3 will come.
Personally I think fed reserve will wait for about 1 quarter after end of QE2 to see the impact of market, whether it can sustain itself without new funds. In fact, there are already too much hot$ around in the market, new QE is just to give confidence to the market. In fact, if new QE is announced without actually pumping the money, market will still grow.
There is another Chinese forum with his regular articles:
http://www.sharesinv.com/zh/?author=8
He seems to think QE3 will come.
Personally I think fed reserve will wait for about 1 quarter after end of QE2 to see the impact of market, whether it can sustain itself without new funds. In fact, there are already too much hot$ around in the market, new QE is just to give confidence to the market. In fact, if new QE is announced without actually pumping the money, market will still grow.
walkinepark, thanks.... my pleasure to share.
latest post by Dr Chan from sharesinvestment :
曾渊沧博士专栏
文： 曾渊沧博士 2011年05月06日曾渊沧博士专栏 奥萨马被杀，对新加坡股市影响属中性，不利好也不利淡。奥萨马被杀当天令美股上升只是短暂的动力。自美军攻占阿富汗，奥萨马就无法露面，因此领导权不可能维持。我估计卡伊达组织早已化整为零，今日，回教恐怖分子只能发动零星的个人自杀式袭击，但是分布范围更广，北非、中东的茉莉花革命的背后力量之一就是卡伊达组织。
奥萨马被杀，对中美关系是不利的。美国为了反恐不得不与中国做表面“朋友”，奥萨马死后，奥巴马会认为反恐之战已打胜一场大仗，不会再投放太多时间精力。若美国不反恐，那就反中了。
美国是一个永远需要敌人的国家，当年反苏，苏联解体后反中。911之后则反恐，奥巴马上位后又想与回教国家和解，再度集中精力反中。今日中国是世界第二大经济强国，是美国长远的强力挑战者，美国不努力打压中国，迟早会变老二。
奥萨马之死除了会影响中美关系，也会影响美巴关系。巴基斯坦外交部抨击美国派军击毙卡伊达首领奥萨马的行动，指出不许再有类似“未经授权的单方面行动”。另一方面，如果证明巴基斯坦政府早已知道奥萨马匿藏在境内，美国国会可能考虑把每年援助巴基斯坦的援款扣减将近13亿美元。美军在巴基斯坦境内击毙奥萨马，可能会引发卡伊达组织的报复，给巴基斯坦政府带来巨大的政治压力。
可见，奥萨马之死不等于世界从此太平。
复活节假期前夕，奥巴马已经公开为QE3造势。他说，美国正面对再度衰退的危机，原因是国会不批准他再大幅增加赤字及国债。他说这是危险的，政府再不大量花钱以刺激经济，美国经济就会再度衰退。去年年中，当双底衰退的声音高唱之后，联储局主席伯南克就出来放风声为QE2造势。QE2果然正式推出，再过两个多月，QE2结束了，也是时候为QE3造势了。
我们得开始为QE3做准备了。当市场开始认为QE3必定推出，股市会突然出现不敢追货的急升，那一天是突然而来，无可预测。唯一可做的事是现在开始持有优质股不放，任由股价升跌而不理。
美股不断地创今年新高，新加坡却追不上。都说QE2会带来大量热钱，为什么新加坡股市反而会落后于美国股市?
原因来自中国，中国股市已经对东南亚股市有着很大的影响。过去几个星期，中国股市出现颇大的调整。中国政府正在全力打压通货膨胀、打压房价，还以行政命令直接干预许多有关民生的商品价格。中国A股股价也经常因此而出现巨大的震动，谣言满天飞，特别是加息的谣言。
日前，人民银行行长周小川公开说，中国的外汇储备已经超过本身需要的合理水平。有人说，中国只需要1万亿美元外储，那多出来的该如何处理？在港设立的人民币资金池是一个方法。
新加坡也正在积极争取成为香港之外的另一个人民币离岸中心。新加坡前总理、现任资政吴作栋日前公开说，中国政府很快就会批准新加坡成为另一个人民币离岸中心。如果新加坡真能成为香港之外的另一个人民币离岸中心，对银行业有利，多了一些生意。
Last night, i attended Dr Chan paid dinner talk. There were about >100 people attended. It was a 4 course western dinner. After the main course, Dr started speaking about HK... It lasted about >1 hour followed by dessert and 10 minutes break. From 10pm to 11pm was Q&A.
Brief recap of what i can recall now:
Dr Chan think Osama is more a Spiritual Leader the last 10 years. Many Osama no 2 sprouted and creating troubles. US is in dilema who to trust, thus until now no weapons had given to Libya.
Still seems bullish and confident about stock market until next year Election. No US interest hike this year. It will only come when US Economy show recovery sign. Everytime increase will be minor. When initial interest rate hike market will correct then become non event and continue to move up until a next turning point. He seems confident Bernanke will come out QE3 but wll call it another form and they are mulling on it now.
RMB will continue to rise 6% a year and over the last so many years and with compound effect, it has actually risen quite a lot and that is what China can tolerate. He said it is a Political mutual decision between the 2 leaders and Chinese (讲信用) and will honour, no need agreement.
He currently holds 20 plus stocks and will wait till his Chan's Channel show peak and will only sell when he feel the time is right i.e. the turning point. example like he like Wen Jia Bao and from Wen's speech he will sum up to sell or buy what?
this is so much i can recall now. Pls exercise own judgement.
latest post by Dr Chan from sharesinvestment :
曾渊沧博士专栏
文： 曾渊沧博士 2011年05月06日曾渊沧博士专栏 奥萨马被杀，对新加坡股市影响属中性，不利好也不利淡。奥萨马被杀当天令美股上升只是短暂的动力。自美军攻占阿富汗，奥萨马就无法露面，因此领导权不可能维持。我估计卡伊达组织早已化整为零，今日，回教恐怖分子只能发动零星的个人自杀式袭击，但是分布范围更广，北非、中东的茉莉花革命的背后力量之一就是卡伊达组织。
奥萨马被杀，对中美关系是不利的。美国为了反恐不得不与中国做表面“朋友”，奥萨马死后，奥巴马会认为反恐之战已打胜一场大仗，不会再投放太多时间精力。若美国不反恐，那就反中了。
美国是一个永远需要敌人的国家，当年反苏，苏联解体后反中。911之后则反恐，奥巴马上位后又想与回教国家和解，再度集中精力反中。今日中国是世界第二大经济强国，是美国长远的强力挑战者，美国不努力打压中国，迟早会变老二。
奥萨马之死除了会影响中美关系，也会影响美巴关系。巴基斯坦外交部抨击美国派军击毙卡伊达首领奥萨马的行动，指出不许再有类似“未经授权的单方面行动”。另一方面，如果证明巴基斯坦政府早已知道奥萨马匿藏在境内，美国国会可能考虑把每年援助巴基斯坦的援款扣减将近13亿美元。美军在巴基斯坦境内击毙奥萨马，可能会引发卡伊达组织的报复，给巴基斯坦政府带来巨大的政治压力。
可见，奥萨马之死不等于世界从此太平。
复活节假期前夕，奥巴马已经公开为QE3造势。他说，美国正面对再度衰退的危机，原因是国会不批准他再大幅增加赤字及国债。他说这是危险的，政府再不大量花钱以刺激经济，美国经济就会再度衰退。去年年中，当双底衰退的声音高唱之后，联储局主席伯南克就出来放风声为QE2造势。QE2果然正式推出，再过两个多月，QE2结束了，也是时候为QE3造势了。
我们得开始为QE3做准备了。当市场开始认为QE3必定推出，股市会突然出现不敢追货的急升，那一天是突然而来，无可预测。唯一可做的事是现在开始持有优质股不放，任由股价升跌而不理。
美股不断地创今年新高，新加坡却追不上。都说QE2会带来大量热钱，为什么新加坡股市反而会落后于美国股市?
原因来自中国，中国股市已经对东南亚股市有着很大的影响。过去几个星期，中国股市出现颇大的调整。中国政府正在全力打压通货膨胀、打压房价，还以行政命令直接干预许多有关民生的商品价格。中国A股股价也经常因此而出现巨大的震动，谣言满天飞，特别是加息的谣言。
日前，人民银行行长周小川公开说，中国的外汇储备已经超过本身需要的合理水平。有人说，中国只需要1万亿美元外储，那多出来的该如何处理？在港设立的人民币资金池是一个方法。
新加坡也正在积极争取成为香港之外的另一个人民币离岸中心。新加坡前总理、现任资政吴作栋日前公开说，中国政府很快就会批准新加坡成为另一个人民币离岸中心。如果新加坡真能成为香港之外的另一个人民币离岸中心，对银行业有利，多了一些生意。
Last night, i attended Dr Chan paid dinner talk. There were about >100 people attended. It was a 4 course western dinner. After the main course, Dr started speaking about HK... It lasted about >1 hour followed by dessert and 10 minutes break. From 10pm to 11pm was Q&A.
Brief recap of what i can recall now:
Dr Chan think Osama is more a Spiritual Leader the last 10 years. Many Osama no 2 sprouted and creating troubles. US is in dilema who to trust, thus until now no weapons had given to Libya.
Still seems bullish and confident about stock market until next year Election. No US interest hike this year. It will only come when US Economy show recovery sign. Everytime increase will be minor. When initial interest rate hike market will correct then become non event and continue to move up until a next turning point. He seems confident Bernanke will come out QE3 but wll call it another form and they are mulling on it now.
RMB will continue to rise 6% a year and over the last so many years and with compound effect, it has actually risen quite a lot and that is what China can tolerate. He said it is a Political mutual decision between the 2 leaders and Chinese (讲信用) and will honour, no need agreement.
He currently holds 20 plus stocks and will wait till his Chan's Channel show peak and will only sell when he feel the time is right i.e. the turning point. example like he like Wen Jia Bao and from Wen's speech he will sum up to sell or buy what?
this is so much i can recall now. Pls exercise own judgement.
----------------------------------------------
just sharing, not advising
just sharing, not advising
Last time I did a reversed calculation based on Chan's channel (posted before), here is 95% risk level for STI:
15 Jan 2012: STI risky peak = 4835
15 Jan 2013: STI risky peak = 5092
15 Jan 2014: STI risky peak = 5383
Based on current situation, global market shd be able to run for another 1.5 year, so STI peak of 5092 can be used as reference. For lower risk of 75% level, we may apply 10% rule:
15 Jan 2012: STI risky peak = 4351
15 Jan 2013: STI risky peak = 4582
15 Jan 2014: STI risky peak = 4843
In my earlier post, I used the past STI pattern to predict next max high = 4782. After 10% safety factor, the value is about 4303.
For very conservative investors, 20% safety factor may be applied for exit time:
15 Jan 2012: STI risky peak = 3868
15 Jan 2013: STI risky peak = 4073
15 Jan 2014: STI risky peak = 4305
My method = 3825
For me, I fully invest now but will gradually reduce the position with higher risk level of index.
Total position (will be adjusted based on actual index performance)
100% - now to Dec 2011 (STI 3000 - 3600)
50% - Jan to Jun 2012 (STI 3300 - 3900)
25% - Jul to Dec 2012 (STI 3600 - 4300)
In short, I will totally exit when STI reaches 4300 one day, get out before the unknown peak. I may keep 1-2 stocks for speculation to let them rise till the peak is over.
Future trades, at least 50% will be mid term cycle, eg. 3000-3600, 3300-3900, 3600-4300 (actual range to be adjusted at later time) due to volatile market.
Asia chart also has similar plot as Chan's channel:
http://www.asiachart.com/malaysiasing.html
Risky peak of STI today is 4700, far from current level of 3100. If bull run is extended by another 1-2 years, the risky peak will be adjusted to 5000+.
We need to be more conservative by applying 10-20% safety factor for historical peak (+6% growth each year) to allow for variations due to unexpected events.
15 Jan 2012: STI risky peak = 4835
15 Jan 2013: STI risky peak = 5092
15 Jan 2014: STI risky peak = 5383
Based on current situation, global market shd be able to run for another 1.5 year, so STI peak of 5092 can be used as reference. For lower risk of 75% level, we may apply 10% rule:
15 Jan 2012: STI risky peak = 4351
15 Jan 2013: STI risky peak = 4582
15 Jan 2014: STI risky peak = 4843
In my earlier post, I used the past STI pattern to predict next max high = 4782. After 10% safety factor, the value is about 4303.
For very conservative investors, 20% safety factor may be applied for exit time:
15 Jan 2012: STI risky peak = 3868
15 Jan 2013: STI risky peak = 4073
15 Jan 2014: STI risky peak = 4305
My method = 3825
For me, I fully invest now but will gradually reduce the position with higher risk level of index.
Total position (will be adjusted based on actual index performance)
100% - now to Dec 2011 (STI 3000 - 3600)
50% - Jan to Jun 2012 (STI 3300 - 3900)
25% - Jul to Dec 2012 (STI 3600 - 4300)
In short, I will totally exit when STI reaches 4300 one day, get out before the unknown peak. I may keep 1-2 stocks for speculation to let them rise till the peak is over.
Future trades, at least 50% will be mid term cycle, eg. 3000-3600, 3300-3900, 3600-4300 (actual range to be adjusted at later time) due to volatile market.
Asia chart also has similar plot as Chan's channel:
http://www.asiachart.com/malaysiasing.html
Risky peak of STI today is 4700, far from current level of 3100. If bull run is extended by another 1-2 years, the risky peak will be adjusted to 5000+.
We need to be more conservative by applying 10-20% safety factor for historical peak (+6% growth each year) to allow for variations due to unexpected events.
Prof Chan Yan Chong
Prof Chan Yan Chong
========================
Pessimism in the stock market is climbing as volatility grew and mini crashes happened almost every week for the past few weeks.
President Obama proposed a US$447 billion stimulus while China announced that the consumer price index has come down. Although these are good news, the market did not react positively.
The US$447 billion Obama proposal beat street expectations of US$300 billion but observers say it will be tough for Obama to pass it into law because of the Republicans, who will block the bill so as to make life difficult for the Democrats. It is easy for the Americans to print money but the difficult part lies in the distribution of wealth.
Most opposition parties want their countries’ economies to be weak so that they stand a higher chance of coming into power, as the electorate tend to have a “change the government” mentality.
It is hoped that the Chinese government will loosen its monetary policy now that consumer prices have peaked. The reason for the poor performance of China’s stock market lies in the policy of the Chinese government to continue its tightening stance. Even though the economy is growing strongly, the stock market continues to underperform while share prices have fallen despite record profits.
China’s underperforming stock market has also affected the markets in Hong Kong and Singapore because lesser funds from China has resulted in a shrinking pool of funds to buy into the stock market. When rumours surfaced that the Chinese government would loosen its tightening policy, stock markets in Asia surged but soon fell when nothing was confirmed.
It is unlikely that the Chinese government would loosen its grip on inflation just because of the August data but it is possible that it would stop tightening because of recent weaknesses in the data.
The sovereign debt crisis is not a new crisis, as it has been haunting the markets for two years, but the after-effects of the US financial crisis is. Every country in the world increased expenditure to fight the crisis but where did the money come from?
The Americans and the Chinese have no difficulties in printing money but the Europeans are in a union where there are countries who still do not trade solely in the Euro, while there is no single common Eurobond.
Each and every country in the European Union is different in terms of political and economic background hence, countries that issue their own bonds differ widely in the sovereign ratings. The German bonds are the most popular while Greek bonds are now considered junk and, thus, invite speculative attacks.
The situation is very much like the Asian financial crisis where concerted attacks by speculators and hedge funds hit the financial markets of troubled countries by making use of the media to spread bad news.
If the Americans need to pay off their existing debt, they can easily issue new ones but the Greeks cannot. How are they going to pay off their debt? They can only borrow from the whole world, but how much and how much longer can they do this?
Can their problem be solved? Of course it can because Asian countries did it in 1997 when Hong Kong repelled speculative attacks by the hedge funds while Malaysia imposed capital controls and the Russians defaulted. The hedge funds were badly hit and stopped their attacks which coincides with the end of the crisis.
It is better for the Greeks to default but what are the implications?
Very simply, the default is similar to the collapse of Lehman Brothers. This time round, the French banks will be hit badly but the French government can easily make up for these losses by issuing bonds.
Earlier when an important European Central Bank official quit, the stock markets fell because it represented dissenting voices within the ECB. It is a good thing that the dissenting voice has left because those who are left will now portray an unequivocal support for the Greeks.
The share prices of China National Building Material (HK:3323) has fallen by quite a fair bit in recent times. Friends have asked me if they should buy but it is a tough question to answer because it is still many folds above the lows in 2008. Investors are still sitting on huge profits but there are definitely people who have sold the shares.
Whatever that goes up must come down; whatever that goes up quickly will come down quickly.
In such turbulent times, investors can consider buying the Renminbi because a lot of banks are launching products related to the Rmb. These products work in such a way that if you have US$150,000, you can buy up to US$1 million worth of Rmb by borrowing the remaining US$850,000 in USD. The low interest rate for the USD means that the appreciation of the Rmb is expected to outweigh the interest outlay.
========================
Pessimism in the stock market is climbing as volatility grew and mini crashes happened almost every week for the past few weeks.
President Obama proposed a US$447 billion stimulus while China announced that the consumer price index has come down. Although these are good news, the market did not react positively.
The US$447 billion Obama proposal beat street expectations of US$300 billion but observers say it will be tough for Obama to pass it into law because of the Republicans, who will block the bill so as to make life difficult for the Democrats. It is easy for the Americans to print money but the difficult part lies in the distribution of wealth.
Most opposition parties want their countries’ economies to be weak so that they stand a higher chance of coming into power, as the electorate tend to have a “change the government” mentality.
It is hoped that the Chinese government will loosen its monetary policy now that consumer prices have peaked. The reason for the poor performance of China’s stock market lies in the policy of the Chinese government to continue its tightening stance. Even though the economy is growing strongly, the stock market continues to underperform while share prices have fallen despite record profits.
China’s underperforming stock market has also affected the markets in Hong Kong and Singapore because lesser funds from China has resulted in a shrinking pool of funds to buy into the stock market. When rumours surfaced that the Chinese government would loosen its tightening policy, stock markets in Asia surged but soon fell when nothing was confirmed.
It is unlikely that the Chinese government would loosen its grip on inflation just because of the August data but it is possible that it would stop tightening because of recent weaknesses in the data.
The sovereign debt crisis is not a new crisis, as it has been haunting the markets for two years, but the after-effects of the US financial crisis is. Every country in the world increased expenditure to fight the crisis but where did the money come from?
The Americans and the Chinese have no difficulties in printing money but the Europeans are in a union where there are countries who still do not trade solely in the Euro, while there is no single common Eurobond.
Each and every country in the European Union is different in terms of political and economic background hence, countries that issue their own bonds differ widely in the sovereign ratings. The German bonds are the most popular while Greek bonds are now considered junk and, thus, invite speculative attacks.
The situation is very much like the Asian financial crisis where concerted attacks by speculators and hedge funds hit the financial markets of troubled countries by making use of the media to spread bad news.
If the Americans need to pay off their existing debt, they can easily issue new ones but the Greeks cannot. How are they going to pay off their debt? They can only borrow from the whole world, but how much and how much longer can they do this?
Can their problem be solved? Of course it can because Asian countries did it in 1997 when Hong Kong repelled speculative attacks by the hedge funds while Malaysia imposed capital controls and the Russians defaulted. The hedge funds were badly hit and stopped their attacks which coincides with the end of the crisis.
It is better for the Greeks to default but what are the implications?
Very simply, the default is similar to the collapse of Lehman Brothers. This time round, the French banks will be hit badly but the French government can easily make up for these losses by issuing bonds.
Earlier when an important European Central Bank official quit, the stock markets fell because it represented dissenting voices within the ECB. It is a good thing that the dissenting voice has left because those who are left will now portray an unequivocal support for the Greeks.
The share prices of China National Building Material (HK:3323) has fallen by quite a fair bit in recent times. Friends have asked me if they should buy but it is a tough question to answer because it is still many folds above the lows in 2008. Investors are still sitting on huge profits but there are definitely people who have sold the shares.
Whatever that goes up must come down; whatever that goes up quickly will come down quickly.
In such turbulent times, investors can consider buying the Renminbi because a lot of banks are launching products related to the Rmb. These products work in such a way that if you have US$150,000, you can buy up to US$1 million worth of Rmb by borrowing the remaining US$850,000 in USD. The low interest rate for the USD means that the appreciation of the Rmb is expected to outweigh the interest outlay.
My greatest concern are the Big Funds making their run on the European banks.
Fear of impending Greece default is weighing heavily on the European banks. There will be big chaos once the Big Funds start to make their mad rush for the exit, which may have already started. With a scenario of Big Funds and citizens withdrawing their money for security reason, which I think it's very rational to do, the Banks would have no money to loan to the Governments. And if any of the big banks collapse due to debt default, that's the beginning of another tribulation.
I wonder what the G20 can do for the situation, I think it's not very much as many countries are mired in their own political and economical quick sand.
Fear of impending Greece default is weighing heavily on the European banks. There will be big chaos once the Big Funds start to make their mad rush for the exit, which may have already started. With a scenario of Big Funds and citizens withdrawing their money for security reason, which I think it's very rational to do, the Banks would have no money to loan to the Governments. And if any of the big banks collapse due to debt default, that's the beginning of another tribulation.
I wonder what the G20 can do for the situation, I think it's not very much as many countries are mired in their own political and economical quick sand.
http://stores.ebay.com.sg/Happy-Skymart
Books by Master Ryuho Okawa - Happy Science
Books by Master Ryuho Okawa - Happy Science
Hi all,Trade2win wrote:My greatest concern are the Big Funds making their run on the European banks.
Fear of impending Greece default is weighing heavily on the European banks. There will be big chaos once the Big Funds start to make their mad rush for the exit, which may have already started. With a scenario of Big Funds and citizens withdrawing their money for security reason, which I think it's very rational to do, the Banks would have no money to loan to the Governments. And if any of the big banks collapse due to debt default, that's the beginning of another tribulation.
I wonder what the G20 can do for the situation, I think it's not very much as many countries are mired in their own political and economical quick sand.
as I mentioned, my opinion is that the Global Financial Crisis has started, and this round will be worse than the year 2008 Crisis...global economies have a long way to fall, things will get worse before it can bottom and get better...Year 2012 is likely worse than Year 2011 in terms of Global Economies and Global Stock Markets...I will only consider buying stocks when stock prices crosses upwards of 200 day MA, which seems to be quite some time away...
The downtrend actually provide opportunities to make money on the way down but I have NOT initiated any shorts yet.
Cheers!
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
-
woonty
haha.woonty wrote:How is it possible that he can be so precise? Hard to believeobokchuan wrote:dear all:
Huliyang ask pp to buy stocks on 15 Nov 2011 ,time will tell whether he is correct or wrong
Any important meeting around that date or anything to do with election campaign?
yes, Only God knows the exact timing. Since he's not God, then he is...???
A Real Investor can estimate Trend. But Exact timing is something that cannot be achieved by any Real Investors.
Hu Li Yang even says that he is better than Warren Buffett in the same talk. And he also said he's been 100% correct in the past....(again, I don't know any Real Investor who is right 100% of the times, there is NO such thing)...
Since he is better than Warren Buffett and he's right 100% of the times (even Warren Buffett get it wrong sometimes), then Mr Hu should be Richer than Warren Buffett. haha.
While I'm just a very ordinary and average person. Warren Buffett says that diversification is for the fools.
I admit I'm a fool, and I rather diversify my money, I do NOT put all my eggs into one basket (actually Warren Buffett also diversify, if you observe Bershire Hathaway's investments). Unlike Mr Hu, who claims to be 100% correct, I always remind myself I can be wrong and my No. 1 question is:"What if I'm wrong, will I be financially ok?"
The good news is just being a fool like me and making and admitting investment mistakes I still managed to reach millionaire status through Investing, so it shows that if Dennis can do it, you can do it too!
Cheers!
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Article by Dr Chan dated 6th Oct, 2011 for reading purpose.
Dear Friends
Is current market a bull or a bear market? How do investers plan their strategy?
There are at least 3 sayings: first, the bull market is death, a bear market has just begun; secondly,
the bull market is still on going, and is currently undergoing a major bull market adjustment; thirdly, the
rising trend during the past 2 years is not a bull run, that the there was no bull market but a rebound of a bear
market.
I think the bull bear market debate is of no consequence. How do we define a bull or a bear
market? In fact there is no scientific definition.
The debate on bull/bear market is a Wall Street pop culture. Historically financial world has
several definitions as well.
There is one definition on bull market: a bull market is one that rises and breaks the prvious
historical high. If we take this definition, we would never be able to predict the arrival of a bull market; we
could only know it when the market breaks the historical new high (as indicated by major indices). This
definiton would make Japan’s market bearish one for over the past 20 years.
Another is a more technically oriented definition: when a major index falls below 250 day moving
average line, it is a bear market; when it rises above the 250 day moving average line, it is a bull market.
Thus, there are people who take the 250 day moving average line as a bull/bear market demarcation line.
However this definition is not entirely reliable as the index may fall below the 250 day moving average line
to day and rises above it the next day. Yet there are people who say that a bull market ends only and a bear
market begins when the 50 day moving average line falls below the 250 day moving aveage line; and
conversely a new bull market begins when the 50 day moving average line rises above the 250 day moving
average line.
Let’s us look at the Wall Street’s definition over 100 years ago. We are unable to trace the
original source of earliest bull/bear term. However Mr. Dow, the founder of the Wall Street Journal and the
Dow Jone Index did mention the two terms ‘bull market’ and ‘bear market’ many times. In later years some
people compiled and arranged Dow’s market comments into a theoretical text that has become a must read
text for the beginers of market technical analysis.
The Dow’s theory however, is not Dow’s own written text, just like books on Buffet’s investment
theories not written by Buffet himself. In his writing Dow described a bull market being one that continually
kept rising for one to several years, and conversely would be a bear market. Dow also mentioned that a bull
market being divided into 3 phases, and a bear market 2 phases. Does it mean a bull run is longer than a bear
run?
Since there are so many definitions on bull/bear market, it is no point to debate whether the
current market is a bull or a bear. We might as well adopt the former China’s leader Deng Xiao Ping’s
‘black cat and white cat’ cconcept;
Ie.be it a bull or a bear market, the market that makes money is a good market.
Currently, there are many derivatives in the market for people to make or lose monies,
notwithstanding a rising or a falling market. But remember: Stock market is just like a very heaty kitchen
only for people who can bear the extreme heat. I like to remind investors that the global markets at the
moment are unstable, and to sell short is just as risky.
Admittedly most of the stock prices are resonably low and worth buying. But there is an old
saying in the market: low is not low. No body ever knows if the current low would fall even lower at a later
stage. Many people keep away from the market, adopting a look and see attitude. Still there are people in the
market with a gambling mood. Awhile ago, there were people who entered the market, thinking stock prices
were cheap. They did not know what to do when prices fell further after they had bought. There were still
others who kept buying to average down the cost of the stocks in hand as prices kept falling. Now they do
not know what to do with all the stocks in hand with no cash available.
When stock prices have fallen to a low level some investment experts would suggest to buy in
stages or to diveersify stock buying; but not many experts ever clearly explained how to do it. I think the
correct way to buy in stages is to use averaging cost method, to buy in each month or in each week on a
certain date irrespective whether the stock prices are risng or falling on that day.
Averaging cost method is not to gamble on the market rebound. It is a long term investment
method to buy stocks on a particular date irrespective of a bull or a bear market, and to hold stocks for ultra
long term.
06 October 2011
Dear Friends
Is current market a bull or a bear market? How do investers plan their strategy?
There are at least 3 sayings: first, the bull market is death, a bear market has just begun; secondly,
the bull market is still on going, and is currently undergoing a major bull market adjustment; thirdly, the
rising trend during the past 2 years is not a bull run, that the there was no bull market but a rebound of a bear
market.
I think the bull bear market debate is of no consequence. How do we define a bull or a bear
market? In fact there is no scientific definition.
The debate on bull/bear market is a Wall Street pop culture. Historically financial world has
several definitions as well.
There is one definition on bull market: a bull market is one that rises and breaks the prvious
historical high. If we take this definition, we would never be able to predict the arrival of a bull market; we
could only know it when the market breaks the historical new high (as indicated by major indices). This
definiton would make Japan’s market bearish one for over the past 20 years.
Another is a more technically oriented definition: when a major index falls below 250 day moving
average line, it is a bear market; when it rises above the 250 day moving average line, it is a bull market.
Thus, there are people who take the 250 day moving average line as a bull/bear market demarcation line.
However this definition is not entirely reliable as the index may fall below the 250 day moving average line
to day and rises above it the next day. Yet there are people who say that a bull market ends only and a bear
market begins when the 50 day moving average line falls below the 250 day moving aveage line; and
conversely a new bull market begins when the 50 day moving average line rises above the 250 day moving
average line.
Let’s us look at the Wall Street’s definition over 100 years ago. We are unable to trace the
original source of earliest bull/bear term. However Mr. Dow, the founder of the Wall Street Journal and the
Dow Jone Index did mention the two terms ‘bull market’ and ‘bear market’ many times. In later years some
people compiled and arranged Dow’s market comments into a theoretical text that has become a must read
text for the beginers of market technical analysis.
The Dow’s theory however, is not Dow’s own written text, just like books on Buffet’s investment
theories not written by Buffet himself. In his writing Dow described a bull market being one that continually
kept rising for one to several years, and conversely would be a bear market. Dow also mentioned that a bull
market being divided into 3 phases, and a bear market 2 phases. Does it mean a bull run is longer than a bear
run?
Since there are so many definitions on bull/bear market, it is no point to debate whether the
current market is a bull or a bear. We might as well adopt the former China’s leader Deng Xiao Ping’s
‘black cat and white cat’ cconcept;
Ie.be it a bull or a bear market, the market that makes money is a good market.
Currently, there are many derivatives in the market for people to make or lose monies,
notwithstanding a rising or a falling market. But remember: Stock market is just like a very heaty kitchen
only for people who can bear the extreme heat. I like to remind investors that the global markets at the
moment are unstable, and to sell short is just as risky.
Admittedly most of the stock prices are resonably low and worth buying. But there is an old
saying in the market: low is not low. No body ever knows if the current low would fall even lower at a later
stage. Many people keep away from the market, adopting a look and see attitude. Still there are people in the
market with a gambling mood. Awhile ago, there were people who entered the market, thinking stock prices
were cheap. They did not know what to do when prices fell further after they had bought. There were still
others who kept buying to average down the cost of the stocks in hand as prices kept falling. Now they do
not know what to do with all the stocks in hand with no cash available.
When stock prices have fallen to a low level some investment experts would suggest to buy in
stages or to diveersify stock buying; but not many experts ever clearly explained how to do it. I think the
correct way to buy in stages is to use averaging cost method, to buy in each month or in each week on a
certain date irrespective whether the stock prices are risng or falling on that day.
Averaging cost method is not to gamble on the market rebound. It is a long term investment
method to buy stocks on a particular date irrespective of a bull or a bear market, and to hold stocks for ultra
long term.
06 October 2011
Cheers!
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny
Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Prof Chan Yan Chong| 07 October 2011
I was recently interviewed by a Douglas George from Hong Kong’s TVB, who wanted to know why I can still sleep so well despite bear markets yet holding onto shares that I bought since 20 years ago. He told me that a research study has shown that human brains secrete a certain chemical during bear markets that can cause an investor to lose appetite and sleep while raising the blood pressure.
I believe in God. He has already decided how much fortune a person can amass during a lifetime hence there is no need to force the issue.
I have devised a method to buy and sell shares to deal with crisis. When I like a certain stock, I will buy a lot of it during a crises and not buy anymore when it starts rising and sell 25% of my holdings when it surges by 400%. By doing so, I would have taken back my capital while the remaining 75% of the holdings is “free”. I also told Douglas that I have the habit of putting my shares into a Singapore bank’s custody to prevent myself from doing silly things such as buy high and sell low.
Since I have already taken back my capital, I will not lose money and sleep even if the share price were to fall. A lot of investors know that I have been holding onto HSBC for the longest time. It has been Hong Kong’s largest bank for the past century and its earnings announcement can trigger the nerves of investors in Hong Kong. My relationship with HSBC stretches back to 20 years where I have been receiving dividends that had already covered my initial capital. I am happy to hold onto its shares and have been glad whenever I receive the dividends.
Times are different and HSBC is now hated by investors as well as broking houses who have been talking down its shares. When its shares fell after the merger with Midland, I used margin facilities to buy up shares of HSBC and made a fortune out of it. Shares of HSBC has been falling as a result of the European crisis but its net profit was still up 35% to US$8.9 billion compared to last year. Is this a bad result?
I have been wrong in picking quite a number of stocks but the profits from other correct calls managed to cover the other losses. I dealt with these losses by not doing anything and selling everything only when the bull market is over. Even if I had to take a loss on the losing positions, I would do so without any regrets.
It is important to stay calm and relaxed when investing in the stock market because this is a game of high-risks and high-returns. I believe that whatever that goes up will have to come down and vice versa, hence, there is no need to panic. The optimistic will end up the winner while the pessimistic will always lose.
There are lots of voices calling for a bear market. Are you worried? There is nothing that is impossible in the stock market so we will have to continue acquiring new knowledge, new conclusions and new test results.
If Greece were to default, the consequences would be severe while the US has already shown signs of a slow decay. George Soros said that China will be faced with a hard-landing and, if all three scenarios materialise, a big bear market is definitely on the way.
For the past decades, international speculators have always announced their arrival in a big way, making use of the media to talk down the market. Retail investors are prone to fear and these speculators thrive on making use of this to their advantage.
Retail investors chase after stocks because of greed and it is precisely this greed that results in speculators selling their shares to you. There are not many people in the world who can manage to buy at rock bottom because of fear. If you can overcome fear and greed then there is no need to fear these speculators.
The stock market is now left with speculators who are punting in a big way while there are still some remnants of retail investors trying their luck. There is no need to panic when stock markets fall and do not get excited when there is a rebound. We need to be patient and wait for good news to appear before getting into the market.
“Operation Twist” led to a sell off in global stock markets while the US Dollar has benefited from it. The US Dollar rose because the Fed is no longer talking about printing more money unlike QE I and QE II where huge amounts of money were printed resulting in skyrocketing commodity prices. Those people who borrowed in US Dollar to buy gold have no choice but to sell gold and cover back their US Dollar borrowings.
I was recently interviewed by a Douglas George from Hong Kong’s TVB, who wanted to know why I can still sleep so well despite bear markets yet holding onto shares that I bought since 20 years ago. He told me that a research study has shown that human brains secrete a certain chemical during bear markets that can cause an investor to lose appetite and sleep while raising the blood pressure.
I believe in God. He has already decided how much fortune a person can amass during a lifetime hence there is no need to force the issue.
I have devised a method to buy and sell shares to deal with crisis. When I like a certain stock, I will buy a lot of it during a crises and not buy anymore when it starts rising and sell 25% of my holdings when it surges by 400%. By doing so, I would have taken back my capital while the remaining 75% of the holdings is “free”. I also told Douglas that I have the habit of putting my shares into a Singapore bank’s custody to prevent myself from doing silly things such as buy high and sell low.
Since I have already taken back my capital, I will not lose money and sleep even if the share price were to fall. A lot of investors know that I have been holding onto HSBC for the longest time. It has been Hong Kong’s largest bank for the past century and its earnings announcement can trigger the nerves of investors in Hong Kong. My relationship with HSBC stretches back to 20 years where I have been receiving dividends that had already covered my initial capital. I am happy to hold onto its shares and have been glad whenever I receive the dividends.
Times are different and HSBC is now hated by investors as well as broking houses who have been talking down its shares. When its shares fell after the merger with Midland, I used margin facilities to buy up shares of HSBC and made a fortune out of it. Shares of HSBC has been falling as a result of the European crisis but its net profit was still up 35% to US$8.9 billion compared to last year. Is this a bad result?
I have been wrong in picking quite a number of stocks but the profits from other correct calls managed to cover the other losses. I dealt with these losses by not doing anything and selling everything only when the bull market is over. Even if I had to take a loss on the losing positions, I would do so without any regrets.
It is important to stay calm and relaxed when investing in the stock market because this is a game of high-risks and high-returns. I believe that whatever that goes up will have to come down and vice versa, hence, there is no need to panic. The optimistic will end up the winner while the pessimistic will always lose.
There are lots of voices calling for a bear market. Are you worried? There is nothing that is impossible in the stock market so we will have to continue acquiring new knowledge, new conclusions and new test results.
If Greece were to default, the consequences would be severe while the US has already shown signs of a slow decay. George Soros said that China will be faced with a hard-landing and, if all three scenarios materialise, a big bear market is definitely on the way.
For the past decades, international speculators have always announced their arrival in a big way, making use of the media to talk down the market. Retail investors are prone to fear and these speculators thrive on making use of this to their advantage.
Retail investors chase after stocks because of greed and it is precisely this greed that results in speculators selling their shares to you. There are not many people in the world who can manage to buy at rock bottom because of fear. If you can overcome fear and greed then there is no need to fear these speculators.
The stock market is now left with speculators who are punting in a big way while there are still some remnants of retail investors trying their luck. There is no need to panic when stock markets fall and do not get excited when there is a rebound. We need to be patient and wait for good news to appear before getting into the market.
“Operation Twist” led to a sell off in global stock markets while the US Dollar has benefited from it. The US Dollar rose because the Fed is no longer talking about printing more money unlike QE I and QE II where huge amounts of money were printed resulting in skyrocketing commodity prices. Those people who borrowed in US Dollar to buy gold have no choice but to sell gold and cover back their US Dollar borrowings.
http://stores.ebay.com.sg/Happy-Skymart
Books by Master Ryuho Okawa - Happy Science
Books by Master Ryuho Okawa - Happy Science
Re: Prof Chan Yan Chong
Hi everyone,
I tried searching on the Internet for an updated chart of Prof Chan Yan Chong's Chan's Channel, to no avail. Does anyone know where I can find it? Thanks in advance.
I tried searching on the Internet for an updated chart of Prof Chan Yan Chong's Chan's Channel, to no avail. Does anyone know where I can find it? Thanks in advance.
Re: Prof Chan Yan Chong
There are 4 ways:
1) Pay and become his internet member, it updates Chan's channel for STI, KLSE, HSI on daily basis.
2) Plot yourself using his formula of Log (2) .... I tried before, not exact but 99% close
3) Buy his recent book, usually will be updated till date of publication
4) Refer to this website, not using log (2) method, but also a form of log scale to see long term trend. This is similar to Chan's channel. After "log", index diff will be little, therefore they will fall within the 2 upper/lower limits nicely, mean stock index will rise with "inflation" of 6-7%/year. Prof Chan mentioned he did not know why it has been so this way for 20 years.
http://www.asiachart.com/malaysiasing.html
(see Chart No 4 for STI)
From Asia Chart, the latest limit 4900 (upper) and 2000 (lower) aligned well with my STI predictions 2 years ago: 4800 (upper) and >2000 (lower). It is a test of vision, courage and patience ...
1) Pay and become his internet member, it updates Chan's channel for STI, KLSE, HSI on daily basis.
2) Plot yourself using his formula of Log (2) .... I tried before, not exact but 99% close
3) Buy his recent book, usually will be updated till date of publication
4) Refer to this website, not using log (2) method, but also a form of log scale to see long term trend. This is similar to Chan's channel. After "log", index diff will be little, therefore they will fall within the 2 upper/lower limits nicely, mean stock index will rise with "inflation" of 6-7%/year. Prof Chan mentioned he did not know why it has been so this way for 20 years.
http://www.asiachart.com/malaysiasing.html
(see Chart No 4 for STI)
From Asia Chart, the latest limit 4900 (upper) and 2000 (lower) aligned well with my STI predictions 2 years ago: 4800 (upper) and >2000 (lower). It is a test of vision, courage and patience ...
dragon wrote:Hi everyone,
I tried searching on the Internet for an updated chart of Prof Chan Yan Chong's Chan's Channel, to no avail. Does anyone know where I can find it? Thanks in advance.
Einstein: "Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler".
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-educat ... by-dr-tee/
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-educat ... by-dr-tee/