Hu Li Yang

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ein55
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Re: Hu Li Yang

Post by ein55 »

Thanks for sharing, equilat.

This round, HLY seems to be much more specific in both targets and conditions, even able to quantify the scale of this crisis and duration of recovery. I can sense that he means a bumpy bull market model (going up, then correct down, then going up, etc.).

Although Euro crisis only needs 10% of cash compared to what US has spent, there are some fundamental differences in these 2 crisis:

EU is an alliance, not a country like US. As in "survivor" show, alliance is formed when there is common interest and benefit but can become enemy (eg. case of Greece) when things go in opp direction. Germany always feels they will be the biggest loser if they agree with EU to help the poor and lazy brothers. Everytime, EU has to wait till a crisis (related to PIIGS), then EU/Germany will compromise on new measure, game is continued this way till now. Therefore, even if EU is willing to use 10% of that fund, it is not an overnight sharp decision, likely it is 1% funding over 10 mini crisis, eventually it could escalate, need more cash to save, may not be just 10%, depending on how long it drags.

Personally I equate Euro crisis to last Asian Financial crisis in 1997, both are regional crisis with deep impact on local market, but relatively less on global market. Euro (except Germany) may continue to suffer in the next decade like Japan, once this "crisis" becomes a norm, it will not be a concern anymore.

As reported by James, DJI breaks 13000 again (lost count how many times), naturally we think it will set a new high for this market cycle when > 13300, or even > 14000 to challenge the last peak in 2007, anything can happen. Global index has about 3 major corrections so far, once each year around mid of 2010, 2011 and 2012. This trend may continue to go up with 2 or more annual corrections in 2013 and 2014, beforereaching its true peak, and then falling badly from the cliff with the next global financial crisis.
Einstein: "Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler".
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equilat
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Re: Hu Li Yang

Post by equilat »

Good sharing. Ein55
desmondngo1125
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Re: Hu Li Yang

Post by desmondngo1125 »

Thanks for sharing, ein55.
desmondngo1125
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Re: Hu Li Yang

Post by desmondngo1125 »

Thanks for sharing, equilat.
ein55
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Re: Hu Li Yang

Post by ein55 »

Here is detailed HLY seminar notes from remisier, Augustine of Amfraser:

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

28 July 2012, (SAT). Hu Li Yang

Hu Li Yang describes the current Euro Debt Crisis as an aftermath of the 2008 financial tsunami.
Investors are afraid due to the experience they went through during the 2008 financial tsunami.
But this aftermath is not as serious as what we experience in 2008.
Why?
1. 2008 affected 2/3 of the world country
2. A lot of money were pump into the system
3. The European financial crisis only affect 1/3 of the world country
4. Money used is only 1/10 of what was needed in 2008.

Hu Li Yang talks about the strategy of the Greece Empire on the chariots.
Ideally, the concept of the European is a great scenario, as the world will be segmented into 3 major power house, US, China and EU. But in reality the problems in EU is not as straight forward.
Hu Li Yang feels that European Union will not slowly break up.
The biggest problem is that there is too much money, and everyone is playing the “Money” game.
If you look at the stock market, economy is still healthy, there is nothing wrong.

HLY Talks about his strategy….
2X resistance…. (It will always apply)
1.2X next move in a breakout.
3 to 5 days of stable breakout.

STI Index , High is 3313, X 0.8 = 2650 (very reasonable entry level, in a very bad situation)
BUT, should there be any things that can happen, 2400 (Dare dare buy)
If STI index break 3000 decisively, we should trade range bound of 3000 to 3300.

For short player, can look at the following key numbers, base of ½ theory.
1. (3313+2521) / 2 = 2917 (Support)
2. (3039+2698) / 2 = 2868 (Support)
This strategy applies for all market… (including HK and China)

Shanghai Market
GDP 8%, but stock market makes new low….. why?
Base of ½ theory, (3478 + 1664)/2 is a reasonable entry level
But stock still make low, reasons are as follow:
1. Investors are generally very disappointed with the market and thus lost confidence
2. Many investors are starting to leave the market
For shanghai market to be able to recover, it must go through a couple of phases.
1. It must be able to withstand international bad news, when there is bad news, the market do not react. This is the first step it must first happen.
2. It must react exuberantly to international good news.
At the present moment, what the SSE is doing is that it is not reacting to good news, it stay stagnant when there is good news, but drop badly when there is bad news.

Charts…..
For a reversal, it must have a 3 months upward movement, 3 month moving average
For a sector, we look at 10 wks Moving average
For a stock, we look at 10 days moving average

3 GOLDEN YEARS for the STOCK MARKET…. Why?
1. Too much money, everyone is lowering interest, there is a concerted effort worldwide.
2. GOLD, OIL moving into bear zone. As leader for commodities, it will lead the death of other commodities, Also Property is unlikely to rise too much
Property will probably stagnant for 5 to 8 yrs. But it is unlikely to drop too much also.
GOLD, OIL and PROPERTY are the 3 nemesis for the stock market
3. European economy is stabilizing, thus Euro will slowly recover from its current situation
4. All the market are at a relatively low price, example Euro, US, B.R.I.China…


Story of a month whose strategy is call 6 months later….
Money management strategy of 1/3 …. Buy 1/3 first….
Direction and luck (Shou Qi) are equally important…
Einstein: "Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler".
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-education-on-investment-programs-by-dr-tee/
ein55
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Re: Hu Li Yang

Post by ein55 »

Copy post by Zipink (using his new account - "tpc") on Hu Li Yang. He also attended the same seminar mentioned above.
tpc wrote:<<This is zipink posting. One graduate is kind enough to lend me his "new" account, so as to not cause confusion by using jamestai account>>

Attended Hu Li Yang (HLY) seminar last weekend. He think the market will be bullish within the next 3 years. Here are the reasons:

1) The world is full of liquidity, all the govt pump in money to the financial system. Interest rate is a record low worldwide. Every country is lowering her interest rate, including Australia. This is the first time in his whole life that he sees such event happening.

2) Crude, gold and commodities are officially in bear market. Reason: As long as the asset class dropped more than 20% from its peak and cannot recover within 3 months, it will be stepping into bear territory.

It is not that gold is not good. It is in fact too good already. Everybody who wants to buy gold has bought. The only way now is to go down. (exact words from HLY based on my translation) Demand will decrease. Even there is a QE3, Gold will have a spike lasting for a short while and will start to turn down again.

There are plenty of crude oil available, he believe can last 100-200 years. Just the salesman (OPEC) trying to convince customer that supply is low/limited - to induce scarcity, trying to raise price

Property markets will pull back slightly (10-20%) at later stage due to increase in interest rate. That result in return may not be that attractive. Owner may sell and
return to stock markets. The pullback will last between 5 to 8 years. Again, he feels that those who want to invest in properties has already all invested.

3) Europe will recover in a very slow pace in 2nd half of 2012 which will be reflected in stock markets. Despite all these issues, Europe most stock markets are recovering pretty well not as bad as Lehman crisis period. He stressed that the EURO issue is not an issue at all. We are scaring ourselves (自己吓自己). At most in time to come, those weaker countries (greece etc) will just leave the euro zone. It will not collapse. All those "economists in the media" are just trying to scare people to portray a doom day. His analogy: This euro issue is just like a mosquito buzzing around you. It can keep stinging you but you cannot die from the stings. Just very annoying only.

4) Europe and some Asia markets are at relatively bottom levels. Not high to begin with.

My views:

I am also bullish personally.

A) This year is an US election year. Market has traditionally gone up in election years. Obama is going to make the stock market and economy looks "good" if he wants to get re-elected.

B) From what I gather from most people I talked to and from guru's articles I read, majority them are bearish for year 2013-2014. If most people are bearish, somehow I feel the market will not crash, cos' most people will be prepared for it. The opposite might occur instead which is a bull market.

C) The US and the Euro problems are known issues. They are not unexpected. When the problems are known, it will not cause a crash.

Be it you are bullish or bearish... just invest within your own limits. There are no right or wrong. Stick to your own views.

This is what makes the market cos' we are the market. If everybody has the same view, there will be NO MEAT left and you will not be able to profit from the market.
Einstein: "Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler".
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-education-on-investment-programs-by-dr-tee/
tpc
Posts: 6
Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:24 am

Re: Hu Li Yang

Post by tpc »

<< This post is made by zipink >>
ein55 wrote:STI Index , High is 3313, X 0.8 = 2650 (very reasonable entry level, in a very bad situation)
BUT, should there be any things that can happen, 2400 (Dare dare buy)
If STI index break 3000 decisively, we should trade range bound of 3000 to 3300.
Just to add on... according to HLY, should STI falls to 2,400 one day (for whatever reason), it's a BUY.

It's based on his 20% rule also. 1.2x (up) or 0.8x (down). I shared this rule of his during my last mentoring session.

3000 x 0.8 = 2,400

This is his "teachings"... I am just repeating what he said. Whether you think it's logical or not, you decide for yourself. :)

Image
Cwlee2777
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Location: Singapore

Re: Hu Li Yang

Post by Cwlee2777 »

Hi,

Understand that 1.2x and 0.8x is HLY's teaching. Did he mention or elaborate how and when should that be applied? as the picture shown year 2007 peak at 3900, it seems like applying 0.8x at that time will be catching the falling knife.

thanks in advance.
cwlee
yhendra
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Re: Hu Li Yang

Post by yhendra »

Hi Cwlee2777.

I use CAR Analogy, if everybody has a car and is going to drive them on the road.
Each of us will have different style in driving:

1. When starting off the engine,
do you estimate the time to reach your destination, do we check the rear mirror, side mirror, dashboard's indicators, what is the whether at the time, etc. Or we take things for granted, just start off the engine, and assume everything is/will be OK?
This is is like when you decide to buy a stock. Did you check its fundamentals (the machine), did you check its TA. Did you check market sentiment (the wheather)?
Or you just buy anyhow, and assume everything will be OK?

2. When you are driving on the road,
can you control your emotion if somebody cut you over? can you control your emotion when you involve in an accident? what is your plan if there is a traffic jam?
This is like when you have bought the stock. Can you control your emotion, when say, immediately after you bought the price down 5%? what is your plan?
when the market crash for whatever reason, what is your plan?

When somebody share his/her strategies in driving, it may not suit your style.
When somebody share his/her strategies in investing, it may not suit your style.

But, there are certain principals that cannot be broken, and must be practiced.
For examples among others,
1. Emotion control is very very important, once you can master this you will most likely be OK over the long run in your journey (driving, or investing)
2. Follow the rules. When you drive, you must follow the given rules (speed limit, no talking on the phone while driving, do not beat the red light, etc.
In buying and selling stock, follow the rules that have been set. In this case, the only different is you MUST FIND, SET, FOLLOW your own rules.
How to find? You can learn from EXPERTS, SHARING in this FORUM.

In our forum here, you may find some discussion about different views.
Like it or not, it will always happen. It's perfectly fine.

Take the important learning points that works for you and discard the rests.
You must have quite strong reason to do whatever you do, and be responsible with whatever choices you made.

Dennis has been teaching us to fish, it's up to us fish the way he had been doing it or not.
Whether or not you believe with the people you learn from, it's up to you to choose.

Below, I'm just drawing an analogy, but not for further discussion in this forum, because it's not appropriate.
If you have different opinion, you can PM me separately.

It's just like religions, some people believe in Budha, some people believe in Jesus, some people believe in Mohammad, etc.
Some people believe in God, some people don't believe at all.
It's all about BELIEF SYSTEM. And you have he power to choose what you want to believe in.

So, whether you believe Dennis' teachings, or Hui Li Yang, or someone else, or you don't believe anybody at all...
You have the power to choose.

The difference is that, whether or not you do or apply whatever have been taught what you believe in;
whether or not you FULLY GRASP the teachings.

Keep looking, keep searching, never give up....

I'm sorry, if somehow my posting here does not directly answer your question, and pretty long...
Cwlee2777 wrote:Hi,

Understand that 1.2x and 0.8x is HLY's teaching. Did he mention or elaborate how and when should that be applied? as the picture shown year 2007 peak at 3900, it seems like applying 0.8x at that time will be catching the falling knife.

thanks in advance.
cwlee
Cheers!
Hendra
Like to share and give opinions.
However, please do your own homework!
You have been given the tools and the knowledge, try to fish yourself, so you will never be hungry again....
---
RTW (Ride The Wave) http://www.facebook.com/RTWLearningLab
lynnboh
Silver Forum Contributor
Posts: 40
Joined: Thu Jan 13, 2011 5:33 pm

Re: Hu Li Yang

Post by lynnboh »

Hi Cwlee2777

Don't be too obsess with Hu Li Yang 1.2Xup and 0.8xdown rule. It should be used just as a reference nothing more. I share how I use this rule say ket say in 2007 at the peak of 3900. Maybe at level 3000x0.8, I take pot shots (small postions) at the market, if I am right good for me. If not, I still ok. Practice Dennis's rule "What if I am wrong"
lynnboh
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Re: Hu Li Yang

Post by lynnboh »

Sorry typo error should read as at level 3900x0.8
Cwlee2777
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Location: Singapore

Re: Hu Li Yang

Post by Cwlee2777 »

Hi yhendra & lynnboh,

Thanks for the explanation. I totally understand it is up to individual to believe and use the best suit strategy rather than just copy and paste. That's why I mentioned first 'Understand that 1.2x and 0.8x is HLY's teaching' before my own question. I'm purely curious to know if he elaborate on how that should apply, seeing that the picture shown he has use around 5 years historical data to derice his forecast buy and sell at 1.2x & 0.8x. Nonetheless it is a good idea to transact at small portion at the 1.2x and 0.8x as testing tool.

Thanks
lynnboh
Silver Forum Contributor
Posts: 40
Joined: Thu Jan 13, 2011 5:33 pm

Re: Hu Li Yang

Post by lynnboh »

I think if I remember correctly he did say in an online video that it is a trend he observed that stock move up and down in steps of up X 1.2 and down x 0.8. That is to generally to say in a uptrend it moves up in steps of X 1.2 stablise at that level and if uptrend continues it moves up another X1.2. Vice Versa. Whatever it is, I am not spending too much time dwelling on it. Just a reference.
Cwlee2777
Senior Forum Member
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2011 12:09 am
Location: Singapore

Re: Hu Li Yang

Post by Cwlee2777 »

Hi Lynnboh,

Thanks for your opinion and sharing. Appreciate it.
tpc
Posts: 6
Joined: Sat Sep 17, 2011 12:24 am

Re: Hu Li Yang

Post by tpc »

Cwlee2777 wrote:Hi,

Understand that 1.2x and 0.8x is HLY's teaching. Did he mention or elaborate how and when should that be applied? as the picture shown year 2007 peak at 3900, it seems like applying 0.8x at that time will be catching the falling knife.

thanks in advance.
cwlee
Hi cwlee,

Based on my understanding, the 1.2 times theory is used when the market is range bound.

STI bottomed out at 1,500. According to the x2 resistance theory by HLY, the STI will face stiff resistance at 3,000. So, indeed the STI tested 3,000 a few times but unable to break thorugh convincingly and traded in the range of 2,700-3,000 region.

It is also dependent on HLY's views on the market. He is bullish and he think we are into 2nd-half of the bull market. Hence, he thinks that should the STI come down to 2,400, it's a great opportunity to buy low.

I think ein55 has knowledge on HLY's teachings. Maybe he could clarify in case I am wrong on my interpretation.

And thanks the rest for your views too! :)

Regards,
Zipink
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