Must Watch - Historical Overview of Modern Finance

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djwongdj
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Must Watch - Historical Overview of Modern Finance

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This video explains concept and evolution of money -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Xx_5PuL ... ure=g-vrec

This video explains the concept and evolution of modern finance -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2zr4y-Ip2I

This video explains the truth about Gold and Silver behind the story of the Wizard of Oz -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U71-KsDArFM&feature=plcp

On average, each video is about 4 hours long and makes for very good family viewing.
These videos help simplify and explain what is otherwise complex and deliberately confusing topics, in order to hide banking deceit.
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Re: Must Watch - Historical Overview of Modern Finance

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This 1 hour video is a history of the House of Rothschild, modern day Medici's -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_wkVJcH ... re=related
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Re: Must Watch - Historical Overview of Modern Finance

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Another good documentary about WEALTH PRESERVATION, about 2 hours long -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YQ-BAOa ... ure=relmfu
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Re: Must Watch - Historical Overview of Modern Finance

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What is a Bubble, What is not yet a Bubble and the Classic Bubble Wave -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4zOAHon ... re=g-all-c
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Re: Must Watch - Historical Overview of Modern Finance

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Interesting albeit detailed article from Charles Savoie about the individuals and sometimes their families who are involved in the demonetizing of Silver, it's past confiscation and a possible future confiscation again -

http://thesilverschool.blogspot.sg/2011 ... arles.html
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Re: Must Watch - Historical Overview of Modern Finance

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Another article from Charles Savoie detailing how the deliberate demonetizing of Silver in the 1930's impoverished China and kick started the Great Depression -

http://www.silver-investor.com/charless ... na1930.swf

http://www.silver-investor.com/charless ... china2.swf
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Re: Must Watch - Historical Overview of Modern Finance

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http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/why-ge ... 012/10/25/

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-2 ... ondon-gold

2012-10-25 — zerohedge.com

Today, in a surprising development, via the Telegraph we learn that none other than the same Bundesbank which is causing endless nightmares for all the other broke European nations due to its insistence for sound money, decided to voluntarily pull two thirds of its gold holdings held by the Bank of England. According to a confidential report referenced by the Telegraph, Buba reclaimed 940 tons, reducing its BOE holdings from 1,440 in 2000 to 500 in 2001 allegedly "because storage costs were too high." This is about as idiotic an excuse as the Fed cancelling its reporting of M3 in 2006 because "the costs of collecting the underlying data outweigh the benefits."
Last edited by djwongdj on Sat Oct 27, 2012 5:51 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Must Watch - Historical Overview of Modern Finance

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The Basel Accord III is upgrading Gold to Tier 1 from Tier 3 very soon. What will this mean for the price of physical Gold?

http://proedgewire.com/gold-silver-inte ... -official/

http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/gol ... earer/3738

http://implode-explode.com/viewnews/201 ... rgold.html
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Re: Must Watch - Historical Overview of Modern Finance

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What happens when Argentina's financial and economic crisis, collapse and as yet non recovery is replicated on a global scale? Does anybody think it may not happen closer home? Documentary ends in 2003 with President Cristina Kirchner in office. She's still in office.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zsqa-YHE ... redirect=1


Argentina Economy as at Sept 2012, the comments following this article are sobering -


http://seekingalpha.com/article/873431- ... MotleyFool
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Re: Must Watch - Historical Overview of Modern Finance

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"Those who vote decide nothing, those who count the votes decide everything." - Joseph Stalin - How true is this statement for voters in Singapore?

Let them march all they want, as long as they continue to pay their taxes - (Ret) General Alexander Haig, Security Adviser, White House Chief-of-Staff(Nixon/Ford), NATO Supreme Commander and US Secretary of State(Reagan)

Aaron Russo was a movie producer of hits like Eddie Murphy's Trading Places and Bette Midler's The Rose. In later life, he produced documentaries that questioned America's domestic policies; his last movie was "America : Freedom to Fascism", it questioned the legitimacy of Income tax and the role of the IRS. He passed away in 2007, one year after the documentary was completed -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6ayb02b ... watch-vrec

The interview he gave to Alex Jones where he expressed his views on recent events like 9/11 -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3NA17CC ... re=related

Ron Paul on NBC, mentioning Aaron Russo's documentary -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmNduSAk ... re=related
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Re: Must Watch - Historical Overview of Modern Finance

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"When Money Dies" is written in 1975 by Adam Fergusson, a British journalist, author and Conservative Party politician who served one term in the European Parliament (MEP). It accounts the terrifying hyperinflation during Germany's Weimar Republic in the wake of WWI and the disastrous Treaty of Versailles(reparations to the Allies consequent of this 1918 treaty was finally paid in full in April 2011); and deals with not only the economic impacts that hyperinflation had upon society, but also the way that society itself changed when societal norms were broken down.

It became a cult classic in the wake of the financial crisis in 2008. In this 2011 article by ZeroHedge and the attached 30min interview with Adam Fergusson by Jame Turk, it portends a chilling possibility that we will likely see this scenario on a global scale.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/when-mone ... ent-and-fu

The Weimar Republic - A Brief History

The Treaty of Versailles - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jg0zGgMh ... 43631FCFB4
1923 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18WlSbVja-g (Noteworthy - in Jan 1919 one ounce of gold cost 170 German Marks but by Nov 1923 the same ounce was 87,000,000,000,000 German Marks)
1924 - 1929 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WilPoLV1r5Y
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Re: Must Watch - Historical Overview of Modern Finance

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Ever heard of the Theory of Black Swan Events?

http://video.pbs.org/video/2276855477/

What are Black Swan Events?

Events that are a surprise (to the observer).
Event that have a major effect (Nationally or Globally)
After the first recorded instance of the event, that it can be rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected ([that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs]The same is true for the personal perception by individuals)


Are we about to encounter one?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D91TGAyrmz8&feature=plcp
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Re: Must Watch - Historical Overview of Modern Finance

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"Can you say bubble? Followed by sheep. Tailgated by greed. And flattened by reality." - says User ID "sfmatt" dd 8 Nov 2012 of Apple Stocks. Is it true?

One possible future for Apple stocks in 2013 -

1. Grave Apple Worries for 2013 - Jim Cramer Real Money dd 8 Nov 2012

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/grave-app ... 00294.html


2. Robert Shaw QVM Group dd 8 Nov 2012 -

Apple Stock Price Vs. Key Product Release Dates Beginning 1983
Apple is currently suffering a double-whammy of broad market malaise and a bit of post-product release depression. We believe they will recover, and while they are down the current yield and future gain potential is up.
Apple's success has been driven by a series of new product releases, which seem to be coming more frequently. There is, however, some concern about the new releases being more incremental than revolutionary, and that imitators are getting better.
We thought it would be interesting to see how the Apple stock price has reacted to product releases over a long period, such as about 30 years.
APPLE-LONGTERM_PRICEvsPRODUCTRELEASEDATES.png
APPLE-LONGTERM_PRICEvsPRODUCTRELEASEDATES.png (100.65 KiB) Viewed 48193 times
You can see above that Apple stock was declining before the release of the Macintosh in 1984 ("A" on the chart) and didn't really catch on in terms of stock price until 1985, then went flat until 1990. At that time ("X" on the chart), Microsoft (MSFT) introduced its Windows operating system designed to challenge the Apple user interface.

Apple stock then effectively languished with a downward drift until 1998, when it introduced the iMac ("B" on the chart). It took off nicely from there, but got whacked in the dotcom bust.

In 2001 ("C" on the chart), Apple introduced the iPod, which decimated demand for the Sony (SNE) Walkman product, but that was not enough to overcome the gravitational pull of the bear market in stocks.

After the 2003 bottom in stocks, Apple climbed very nicely to new highs. The high before the dotcom bust was about $37. The low after the bust was about $6 (an 84% drop); and the high reached before the next key product release in 2006 was about $86 (about 14 times the low price).

In 2006 ("D" on the chart), Apple released the first MacBook. The price subsequently declined about 45% before then approximately rising by factor of 3 to a level more than 45% above the prior high when the MacBook was released.

The big news then came in 2007 ("E" on the chart) when the first iPhone came out, revolutionizing smart phones the way the iPod revolutionized mobile music. Apple stock rose about 20% from there over a couple of months, before dropping nearly 25% , and then rising more than 80% from there to a 2007, pre-market crash high.

As the stock market was crashing, Apple released the MacBook Air ("F" on the chart), but gravity won that time. The stock took more than a 40% dive, fought its way back to nearly the old high, then collapsed with the market to about $79, more than 60%, before the 2007 high. They had introduced the iPhone2 during the crash but while it made lots of money for the company, the investment community paid no heed and continued to drop the stock price as the world seemed to be coming apart.

Then in April of 2009 ("G" on the chart), just after the stock market bottom, Apple released the iPad and both the market and Apple stock were off to the races.

Closer Look At the Period After Release Of The iPhone

This next chart presents the Apple chart from 2007 to make a more granular view of version releases of key products.
APPLE-MediumTERM_PRICEvsPRODUCTRELEASEDATES_2.png
APPLE-MediumTERM_PRICEvsPRODUCTRELEASEDATES_2.png (104.71 KiB) Viewed 48193 times
The first iPad release is shown at "E" in Figure 2. The stock didn't do much for while then rose nicely. All the product releases since then have been version releases of pre-existing products (treating the Mini as a version of the iPad). There have been five device version releases since the iPad came out. Except for the iPhone 4, each was preceded by a rise. In each case, including the iPhone 4, the release was followed by a price decline. The current decline is more significant than the others. It is below both the 200-day moving average and is below the 20% negative offset indicator.

The critical Christmas shopping season is about to open, and that will be telling.
There are two important competitors lurking now that were effectively not there before, namely Microsoft and Google (GOOG). The Surface tablet from Microsoft and the Nexus phone from Google could be spoilers to some degree - we'll have to see. Both Microsoft and Google are committed now to a vertically integrated "ecosystem" consisting of devices, operating systems, application stores and cloud storage, as is Apple.

At the same time, both AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) have stated that they would like to see three "ecosystems" so as not to be beholding to a single source. Apple and China Mobile (CHL), the dominant mobile carrier in China, continue to talk. If Apple can get on board with China Mobile and get a good market share, the next phase for Apple could be amazing.

There are brewing questions about the implications of the top talent changes at Apple, and whether the WOW factor is as great for new versions of existing devices, as it was for them when they were totally new experiences.

Apple is a great company with super products, but growth rate maintenance gets harder and harder as company size increases; and it gets harder yet when well funded competitors decide it is a strategic necessity to imitate. However, the work is harder now and there is not as much broken field running potential as before, either in the US or in China.

Thus QVM Group's position is long some shares of AAPL and is short Dec '12 475 PUTs on additional shares.

3. Appl slammed by Judges, Stocks slides 20%, Consumers choose Samsung - David Richards dd 11 Nov 2012

http://smarthouse.com.au/Comment/E9R4K4M5


4. 8 Reasons Apple May Get Cheaper -by Rick Aristotle Munarriz dd 11 November, 2012

My ears are numb from all of the ringing of the dinner bells.

There seems to be a lot of cheerleading among Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL ) bulls these days. The stock has fallen sharply since poking its head above $700 to hit an all-time high two months ago. Nor is there a shortage of encouragement among my fellow Fools. However, before approaching Apple as a bargain, it's important to assess the reasons it may not be the mother of all buying opportunities. Let's review.

1. All that cash isn't a cushion
It's true that Apple closed out its latest quarter with a little more than $121 billion in cash, short-term investments, and long-term marketable securities on its balance sheet. Divide that into Apple's 948.2 million fully diluted shares outstanding, and you get a compelling $127.87 in cash for every share of Apple.

However, it's not exactly fair to simply subtract all of that from Apple's valuation and assume that Apple is trading at an even cheaper multiple. It is, yes, but the difference isn't that extreme. The lion's share of Apple's cash is held up overseas. Repatriating profits would mean that a decent-sized chunk of that money would go to pay taxes.

Apple has a ton of money on its balance sheet, but some of it is spoken for.

2. Apple has been mortal on the bottom line lately
Remember when Apple used to make analysts look ridiculous? It would offer up conservative guidance, the pros would perch themselves just above that figure, and Apple would still blow Wall Street projections out of the water.

Well, beats have been rare since Steve Jobs passed away. In fact, Apple has come up short on the bottom line in three of the past five quarters. That's a pretty shocking statistic, especially for a company that had barreled to fresh all-time highs just two months ago.

3. The road downward is paved by those calling "bottom" prematurely
When Apple was trading 10% below September's all-time high, many argued that the step back was giving investors a new chance to hop on. When Apple's stock was trading 20% below its all-time high, many investors took the milestone to mean they would be rewarded to buy in as contrarians now that Apple's stock was entering bear territory.

What can we say about those mile markers now that the stock is better than 22% off its earlier high?

Calling a bottom is dangerous, especially since Apple -- despite missing Wall Street's profit estimates in back-to-back quarter -- is still trading 36% higher year to date.

4. Life after Steve Jobs won't be easy
Avondale Partners initiated coverage of Apple on Friday with a ho-hum Market Perform rating and an equally uninspiring $600 price target. Remember when some brave analysts were pointing at four figures?

Analyst John Bright sees reasonable growth for Apple's iPad and iPhone businesses in the coming years, but he's not entirely sold on the company's next act.

"We believe the probability of increased competition outweighs the probability of innovation without Jobs," he writes.

5. Apple's losing its tablet edge
Until about a year ago, whenever someone asked for a tablet, it was really a request for an iPad. Apple owned the tablet market, and rightfully so. It legitimized the then-fringe niche.

Now the market's changing. Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN ) has sold millions of its Kindle Fire since hitting the market last November. Google's (Nasdaq: GOOG ) own Nexus 7 -- made by Asus -- raised the bar again this summer on what tablets costing half as much as the iPad can do.

Industry watcher IDC claims that Apple's share of the tablet market shrank to 50.4% this past quarter. However, the real story is that Samsung, Amazon, Asus, and Lenovo -- the four largest players after Apple, and all making tablets based on Google's Android operating system --- have seen their collective share soar from 11.4% to 37.4% over the past year.

6. iPad Mini? $329? Really?
There was never going to be a winning price on the iPad Mini. If Apple charges too little, sales would merely cannibalize the more lucrative full-priced iPad. If it charges too much, consumers will stick to the $199 offerings out of Amazon and Google that have better resolution than Apple's iPad Mini.

The $329 price point that Apple decided on may be the worst of both worlds. It's not enough woo entry-level tablet shoppers, yet it may lead some to question why they should pay at least $500 for a slightly larger tablet.

7. Apple Maps is a sign of arrogance run amok
Heads rolled at Apple after the Apple Maps fiasco and the lampooned nature of Siri, but the real problem is that Apple let these very incomplete products hit the market and even shell out big marketing dough to promote Siri.

Does Apple merely think its consumers will put up with anything after forgiving the company for Antennagate? Maybe Apple doesn't respect its customers enough to care.

In singing Apple's praises, fellow Fool Evan Niu boasts of how the company is able to do more with less by pointing out how Apple spent just $2.4 billion in R&D last year. Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT ) and Samsung shelled out $9 billion apiece. Even Google spent more than double in R&D than Apple. Yes, even Amazon spent more on R&D last year.

It's great that Apple can generate so much revenue by putting in so little, but what will it do when simply putting out the same iOS device in different-sized configurations stops passing for innovation?

8. Optimism is in retreat
One of the reasons Apple has been one of the best investments over the past decade is that it was a joy to see analysts scrambling to catch up. Apple would blow estimates out of the water, leaving analysts with little choice but to jack up their projections.

We've been going the wrong way in recent months. Just three months ago, Wall Street figured that Apple would earn $52.50 a share this new fiscal year and $60.53 a share come fiscal 2014. Now those same pros are forecasting net income of $50.14 a share in fiscal 2013 and $58.70 come next year.

Could it be that Apple's share price is merely catching up to a market that didn't see the shift to reverse coming?

Apple is a great company, but maybe it will only be a good -- and not great -- investment in the coming months.

5. The Bear Bites Apple - by John Nyaradi Market Watch, WSJ 14 Nov 2012

Apple Computer is in a bear market. Here's why it matters and what you need to know:

On Sept. 19, Apple AAPL -1.11% was trading at $702 per share. Unfortunately, the Bear came along and took a big bite out of the world's largest company by market cap as the company's stock closed on Nov. 13 at $542/share, down roughly 23% in less than two months.

On a technical basis, Apple now trades well below both its 50- and 200-day moving averages and a giant head-and-shoulders pattern suggests further possible downside action with next significant support in the $375-$400 level, some 25% below current levels.

How did Apple fall so far so quickly and what does it mean for us, whether we're Apple investors or not?

1. According to the latest research from Strategy Analytic , Samsung's Galaxy S3 has surpassed the iPhone 4S for the first time, making the Galaxy the world's top-selling smartphone during the third quarter of 2012. The Strategy Analytic report noted that many consumers put off purchasing an iPhone in anticipation of the release of the iPhone 5. Although the report conceded that the iPhone 5 would reclaim the top-selling title for Apple, the reason given for the disappointing sales of the iPhone 4S underscores a frequently-voiced criticism of the company: its emphasis on built-in obsolescence.

The latest example of this was the iPad Mini, which was not equipped with a high-definition "retina" screen as used in other Apple products. Reports indicate that Apple will release a new iPad Mini with a retina screen during the summer. In the meantime, many frustrated consumers are purchasing mini-tablets from Apple's competitors. Changing Of The Smart Phone Guard

2. The untimely death of Steve Jobs had long been anticipated as being potentially problematic for Apple. Management changes are already taking place. The chief of iPhone software development, Scott Forstall is being pushed out. The company's top retail executive, John Browett, recently submitted his resignation.

3. The company is losing market share to customers who are changing over to the Android operating system and subscribing to data contracts which could keep them away from Apple for the next two years.

4. Tablet market share is in decline as the iPad market share has declined from two-thirds of the market to 50% over the last year.

Why should you care?

For holders of Apple, recent action is distressing, of course, however, they can still take solace in the fact that their stock is still up some 32% year-to-date. But for the rest of us, Apple matters and here's why:

1. Apple is widely held by institutions and hedge funds. Its major holders read like a "who's who" of the investing world that includes players like Vanguard Group, BlackRock, JP Morgan Chase, Fidelity and S&P 500 SPDR ETF, along with many hedge fund luminaries like David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital and Tiger Global Management. With Apple being held by more than 200 hedge funds under pressure to perform, a rush to the exits by these "quick on the trigger players" could turn an Apple bear market into a panic if selling should continue as we approach year end. (Read some further “ Thoughts on Apple Risk .”)

2. Apple has a market cap of more than $510 billion, trades more than $10 billion dollars and makes up 12% of the Nasdaq Composite, double the nearest runner-up, Microsoft MSFT -0.92% . Apple makes up 4% of the entire S&P 500, 20% of the assets in PowerShares QQQ and just under 20% of Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF XLK -1.02% two of the largest ETFs in the technology sector. With a footprint this large, when Apple sneezes, the rest of the stock market gets a cold and the results are clearly evident in recent performance by these widely held technology ETFs.

What can you do to profit?

Many die-hard Apple fans remain convinced that the current share price decline is a buying opportunity, and it might well be.

However the bears will tell you that many investors felt the same way on Oct. 12, when AAPL was trading at $630 per share and that the company's chart is forming an "Eiffel Tower" pattern.

We all know there are two sides to every trade, and so the bulls are buying while Apple bears are shorting the stock, buying put options or betting against the entire tech sector with positions in inverse technology exchange traded funds.

To answer the question, "What can you do to profit?" you, of course, must first decide if you're Apple bull or Apple bear and then consider what the future course of Apple means for the entire U.S. stock market.

Based on fundamental and technical headwinds, the party in Apple appears to be over, at least for now. While oversold and due for a technical bounce, Apple is clearly in a downtrend that shows no sign of ending anytime soon. A bear bite for Apple is significant because the company is the 900-pound gorilla of the U.S. stock market, and as Apple goes, so goes the market
2012-11-14 Shorting Apple.jpg
2012-11-14 Shorting Apple.jpg (10.28 KiB) Viewed 48000 times
6. Apple's biggest mistakes since Steve Jobs saved the company - Jay Yarow Business Insider 15 Nov 2012

http://www.businessinsider.com/apples-m ... 12-11?op=1

7. Can the market recover without Apple - by Jack Mackie, Breakout Yahoo Finance 16 November 2012

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout ... 05948.html
Last edited by djwongdj on Sat Nov 17, 2012 9:34 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Must Watch - Historical Overview of Modern Finance

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Is this scenario going to repeat itself and with greater force this time?

Man-made Events –
1. The Great Crash 1929 - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fp1CttLLR0k
2. The Great Depression -
A Job at Ford’s - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=se0x0lXp ... ure=relmfu
The Road to Rock Bottom - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXXsTB4v ... re=related
Mean Things Happening - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElCtm6DW ... ure=relmfu
New Deal/New York - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_7rg7xK ... ure=relmfu
We have a Plan - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mj9jprvE ... ure=relmfu
To Be Somebody - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wrhpZOG ... ure=relmfu

Natural Events conveniently exploited by Man-made Events –
3. The Dust Bowl –
Stinging Dust & Forgotten Lives - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tzo9wtXf ... re=related
Surviving the Dust Bowl - http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=pVo ... =endscreen

4. Stories from the Great Depression - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpfY8kh5 ... re=related
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Re: Must Watch - Historical Overview of Modern Finance

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Hunch: Obama doesn't want a deal to avoid the Fiscal Cliff - Jazz Shaw - Hot Air 17 November 2012

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/11/17/p ... cal-cliff/
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