AAII Investor Sentiment Survey

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candy_chia
Investing Mentor
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

AAII Investor Sentiment Survey

Post by candy_chia »

The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are
- bullish,
- bearish,
- and neutral

on the stock market for the next 6 months
; individuals are polled from the ranks of the AAII membership on a weekly basis.

Only one vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting period.

Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

Image

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
ein55
Investing Mentor
Posts: 864
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2010 12:31 am

Re: AAII Investor Sentiment Survey

Post by ein55 »

Thanks to Candy for sharing another PA - Personal Indicator.

This AAII survey is quite similar to the market sentiment survey which I started in Nov 2011, except their market is based in US (mine is based on MYF forum) and their vision is 6 months (mine is 12 months). However, the 2 surveys have common trends, now we have 1 more indicator to integrate US and local SG market using PA.

AAII: long term average survey: 30.5% bear market, 30.5% neutral (similar to flat market), 39% bull market
Ein55 market sentiment average survey: 20% bear market, 40% neutral (similar to flat market), 40% bull market

For bullish viewers, both surveys are very close (quite surprised). For US, I am actually expecting a much higher % bull, probably >55%, if we align with stock market %optimism there. Here is my explanation why US sentiment of % bull is not as high as stock market:

US economy (job market and other macro data) and property market are still in the recovering stage, overall could be around 25% optimism. US market has 2 extreme: bond market is overheated (over 75% optimism), stock market is moderate high (around 55% optimism), others are behind (around 25% optimism). If we take the average of 55% and 25%, it is about 40%, which is the average sentiment of bull, not limited to stock market.

The weekly sentiment of survey could be affected by the daily financial news and political development (eg. possible war in Syria, last time was North vs South Korea, then the past Libya war, new/old Egypt political change, etc.... no ending). PA based on mass market is a lagging indicator, so we must counter the trend to invest. Now is not the best time to buy or sell....

candy_chia wrote:The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are
- bullish,
- bearish,
- and neutral

on the stock market for the next 6 months
; individuals are polled from the ranks of the AAII membership on a weekly basis.

Only one vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting period.

Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

Image

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
Einstein: "Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler".
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-educat ... by-dr-tee/
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Re: AAII Investor Sentiment Survey

Post by candy_chia »

AAII Sentiment Survey: Bullish Sentiment Jumps To A 2-Month High
Sep 12 2013


Optimism jumped to a two-month high in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. The rise occurred as both neutral and bearish sentiment declined.



Image

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, spiked upwards by 10.0 percentage points to 45.5%. This is the highest level of optimism since July 11, 2013. It is also the first time in five weeks and just the second time in the past seven weeks that bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 39.0%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged, declined 3.3 percentage points to 29.9%. This is the second time in four weeks that neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 30.5%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 6.7 percentage points to 24.6%. The level of pessimism was last lower on July 25, 2013. The historical average is 30.5%.

Since hitting a three-month low of 29.0% on August 22, bullish sentiment has rebounded by a cumulative 16.5 percentage points. This upward move is not surprising, given the swings in sentiment that have occurred over the past several months. Even with the increase, bullish sentiment remains within its typical range of readings.

This year's fourth seven-day streak of gains in the S&P 500 coincided with our survey period of Thursday through Wednesday. The market's resilience and its rebound from its August lows have encouraged individual investors. Nonetheless, macro uncertainty including the Federal Reserve, Washington politics, market valuations and the evolving situation in Syria continue to keep AAII members' sanguinity for stocks in check.

This week's special question asked AAII members what economic trends they are currently watching.

- Interest rates topped the list, with 24% of respondents saying they monitor them.
An additional 13% said they are watching Federal Reserve policy.

- The employment picture came in second, listed by 19% of respondents.

- Housing and real estate was a close third, named by 18% of respondents.

- Nearly 7% of respondents said they are monitoring the situation in Syria, even though we did not ask about geopolitics.

This week's AAII Sentiment Survey:

Bullish: 45.5%, up 10.0 percentage points
Neutral: 29.9%, down 3.3 percentage points
Bearish: 24.6%, down 6.7 percentage points

Historical averages:


Bullish: 39.0%
Neutral: 30.5%
Bearish: 30.5%

The AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted weekly since July 1987 and asks AAII members whether they think stock prices will rise, remain essentially flat, or fall over the next six months. The survey period runs from Thursday (12:01 a.m.) to Wednesday (11:59 p.m.)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1690522 ... view&ifp=0

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
ein55
Investing Mentor
Posts: 864
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2010 12:31 am

Re: AAII Investor Sentiment Survey

Post by ein55 »

From the last Ein55 monthly workshop (3 Sep 2013), mass market sentiment survey results (1 year outlook):

Bear Market = 30%
Flat Market = 30%
Bull Market = 40%

This result is very close to long term outlook of AAII Investor Sentiment Survey (US based, 6 months outlook), although the sampling target belongs to 2 different regional markets, showing that the global market trend has great influence on regional / local markets. Again, the mass market is still under consolidation, no clear mid-term trend yet.
Einstein: "Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler".
Email Dr. Tee: ein55.tee@gmail.com
Ein55 Free Investment Courses and eBook: http://www.ein55.com/free-public-educat ... by-dr-tee/
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